People, Oceans and Climate Change

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1 People, Oceans and Climate Change A deeper look at the carbon dioxide cycle, greenhouse gases, and oceanic processes over the last 150 years OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 18 April 2013 Reading: Libes, Chapter F.J. Sansone

2 1. Atmospheric carbon dioxide Levels and rates of change Sources and their drivers 2. Regional and historical CO 2 emission tends 3. Fate of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 4. Human perturbation of the global C budget 5. Other greenhouse gases Outline 6. Consequences of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Physical, biological Carbonate-mineral saturation state

3 Timeline 19th century -- Realization that gases in the atmosphere cause a "greenhouse effect" which affects the planet's temperature; a lower level of CO 2 might explain the ice ages of the distant past Early 20th century -- Svante Arrhenius calculated that emissions from human industry might someday bring a global warming (widely dismissed) G.S. Callendar argued that the level of carbon dioxide was climbing and raising global temperature (again, dismissed) Early 1960s -- C.D. Keeling measured the fast rise in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and researchers began examining how the level of CO 2 had changed in the past, and how the level was influenced by chemical and biological forces Wally Broecker introduced the phrase global warming when he published a paper titled: Climate Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?

4 Absorption of Incident and Emitted Solar Radiation

5 25% rise in atm CO 2 since 1960 But rate of increase of atmospheric CO 2 is not constant Rate varies with: Economic activity Natural variations: ENSO Droughts, fires Volcanic activity Decadal mean

6 Global Carbon Reservoirs Reservoir Amount* Carbonate sediments Soils (organic carbon) Oceans and freshwater (dissolved CO2) 140 Biomass (living matter) 30 Fossil fuels (plus organic carbon in the sediments) 27 Atmosphere (CO2) 2 * The amounts are in units of tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

7 Natural and Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Global fossil fuel combustion and land use changes add ~8 billion tons C/yr; only about half remains in atmosphere???? Atmosphere

8 Drivers of Accelerating Atmospheric CO : 1.3 ppm y : 1.6 ppm y : 1.5 ppm y : 2.0 ppm y -1 65% - Increased activity of the global economy 17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy 18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks (Calculations based on the period ) Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

9 Emissions from Fossil Fuel and Cement 2007 Fossil Fuel: 8.5 Pg C Fossil Fuel Em ission (GtC/y Emissions Rates of increase: : 0.9% y : 3.5% y -1 Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC

10 Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy Photo: CSIRO Carbon intensity (KgC/US$) Kg Carbon Emitted to Produce 1 $ of Wealth Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

11 Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions Factor (relative to 1990) World F Emissions (emissions) P Population (population) g Wealth = G/P = per capita GDP 0.6 h Carbon = F/G intensity of GDP Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

12 Regional Emissions C emissions Wealth per capita Population C Intensity Developed Countries (-) Developing Countries Least Developed Countries Raupach et al 2007, PNAS

13 Regional Shares of Fossil Fuel Emissions 100% D3-Least Developed Countries 80% D2-Developing Countries 60% 40% 20% 0% Cumulative Emissions [ ] Flux in 2004 Flux Growth in 2004 Population in 2004 India China FSU D1-Developed Countries Japan EU USA Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

14 Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation 1.80 Pg C yr Africa Latin America S. & SE Asia SUM Pg C y -1 (16% total emissions) R.A. Houghton, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005

15 Sinks for Missing Carbon Dioxide Oceans Dissolution into surface water Limited by slow mixing of surface and deep waters Land Regrowth of temperate forests (logged out in the past) Fertilization of forests by CO 2 and N, P

16 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) 2007) 1.5 Pg C y -1 + Atmosphere 46% Land 29% 4.2 Pg y Pg y Pg C y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3 Pg y -1 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS (updated)

17 CO 2 uptake and storage by land and oceans is influenced by: Land: CO 2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, Oceans: CO 2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

18 Efficiency of Natural CO 2 Sinks Fates of Global CO 2 Emissions Land Fraction Ocean Fraction Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

19 Causes of the Decline in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink Part is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5 This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica, which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the Antarctic ozone hole Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science

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21 CO 2 Conclusions (i) Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are growing x4 faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, and above the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Less Developed Countries are now emitting more carbon than Developed Countries The carbon intensity of the world s economy is improving slower than previous decades

22 CO 2 Conclusions (ii) The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer it takes to begin reducing emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO 2 All these changes have led to an atmospheric CO 2 growth 33% faster since 2000 than in the previous two decades, implying a stronger, accelerating climate forcing

23 Other Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases "The NOAA annual greenhouse gas index,

24 CO 2, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 account for ~96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750: (L) Radiative forcing, relative to 1750, of all the long-lived greenhouse gases (R) The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is indexed to 1 for the year 1990 (

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26 Consequences of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Temperature and precipitation changes Response of the atmosphere-ocean system: deep water circulation, sea level, calcification rates Response of the atmosphere-land system: E.g., Photosynthetic rates (though most plants are not C- limited), shifts in biomes/habitats Knowledge stems from models, historical and proxy records, observations of modern climate system

27 Clear effects of global temperature change appear in available records

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29 Warmer N hemisphere Warmer continents

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31 The enhanced greenhouse effect and global warming are we headed for a Super Interglacial??

32 Predictions of Change in Global Thermohaline Circulation Bryden (2005), Nature Estimate a 30% (9 Sv) decrease in lower NADW production,

33 Projected Changes in Biomes

34

35 Ocean Carbon Chemistry Review CO 2(gas) 280 µatm 560 µatm CO 2 + H 2 O H 2 CO 3 Carbonic acid H 3 CO 2 H + + HCO - 3 Bicarbonate HCO 3- H + + CO 2-3 Carbonate CO 2 + CO HCO - 3 Taken from Feely et al. (2001) 8 µmol kg µmol kg µmol kg µmol kg µmol kg µmol kg µmol kg µmol kg % pco 2 8% TCO 2

36 Saturation State -- Carbonate Dissolution The saturation state of SW with respect to a calcium carbonate mineral (calcite, aragonite, magnesian calcite) determines whether the mineral will dissolve or not Oversaturated Undersaturated Ω > 1 Precipitation of mineral Ω < 1 Dissolution of mineral E.g., the saturation state of SW with respect to calcite: Ω calcite [Ca 2+ [Ca 2+ ][CO ] 2 3 [CO ] 2 3 ] Seawater Calcite saturated seawater Depth at which Ω = 1 is called the saturation horizon

37 Saturation State Varies with Depth Relative solubilities of carbonates -- Ca[Mg]CO 3 (low high): Low Mg-calcite Calcite Aragonite High Mg-calcite

38 Ω > 1 Ω = 1 Ω < 1 Animation of the saturation state of surface water with respect to aragonite. Another global aragonite saturation model: Feely et al. 2009, Oceanography 22:36-47

39 Ω > 1 Ω = 1 Ω < 1 The magenta line, which first becomes visible in 2025 (in the Weddell Sea), separates saturated waters (orange colors) from undersaturated waters (blue colors). By the end of this century, undersaturation spreads throughout the entire Southern Ocean (all ocean south of 60 S) and into a portion of the subarctic Pacific. (Orr et al Nature)

40 Where do we stand with respect to the enhanced greenhouse effect and global warming? Without doubt greenhouse effect exists and has influenced climate change in the past Without doubt human activities are increasing levels of greenhouse gases General consensus is that global warming due to human activities is already occurring. The problems lie in the rate and magnitude of the warming and effects on ecosystems

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