ESA-3. Energy (services) are one of the fundamental requirements for social and economic development and not just their consequence

Transcription

1 ESA-3 Determinants 1: Demand Keywan Riahi Energy (services) are one of the fundamental requirements for social and economic development and not just their consequence Former US DOE chair Energy Services for: Survival and security (basic needs) Building and maintaining material environment Comfort (in using material env.) Social interactions (communication, self-actualization)

2 Energy Services Demand quantities: income, price, lifestyles, infrastructure,.. Demand qualities: availability, income, price, comfort, (in-)convenience, Quantities and qualities interact! Modernization indicator: quantity/quality of energy, e.g. noncommercial, traditional biomass use (cow-dung, residues, wood) Traditional Fuel Use and Demographic Indicators infant mortality, deaths per 1 life births female life-expectancy, years male-female life expectancy gap, years 2 < >8 percent non-commerical in total energy use 1 total fertility rate, children/woman Source: WEA, 2, p. 53 Source: WEA 21 Energy Use per Capita Europe 1, BC China 1 BC Europe 13 England 188 Japan 199 food household production transport services USA 2 Europe 25 IIASA-WEC C1 Scenario GJ per capita per year

3 Per Capita Energy & Services Western Europe (average) 13, $ PPP ~ 2.5 toe final energy Floorspace: 4 m 2 Residential energy:.8 toe Industry energy: 1 toe Transport energy:.7 toe Passenger-km (cars): 1,7 (7,4) Ton-km (trucks): 3,4 (2,4) Latin America (average) ~5, $ PPP ~ 1 toe final energy Floorspace: 1 m 2 Residential energy:.5 toe Industry energy:.3 toe Transport energy:.2 toe Passenger-km (cars): 4,7 (2,1) Ton-km (trucks): 2, (9) India Per Capita Urban Household Fuel Use vs. Income Dung Wood Soft coke Kerosene LPG Electricity Per capita energy use, MJ Grids 4 Liquids 3 2 Solids 1 < Household income (rupees per year) Data Source: TERI, >6 Average India Fuel Use Structure of Urban and Rural Households vs. Income Dung Wastes Wood Charcoal Soft coke Kerosene LPG Electricity 1 Rural Urban Data Source: TERI, Percent <3 >18 Household income (rupees per year)

4 Energy Demand: The Economist s Perspective Income growth, e.g. US real-term per capita income: +2%/yr (AFTER inflation) since 19 = a Factor >7! Elasticity of demand with respect to: -- income -- energy prices (incl. taxes!) -- different for different income groups, fuel types, etc. Rate of time preference: consumption impatience (discounting) Tradeoffs, e.g. transportation: income price time (air vs. car travel) Reminder: elasticity = % change of A per % change of B, e.g. income elasticity: ε = +.7 = 1% income growth +.7% demand e.g. price elasticity: ε = -.3 = 1% price growth.3% demand Primary Energy Use and Income: Path Dependence toe per capita UK USA Austria Japan Data: Butschek, 1997; Fouquet & Pearson, 1998; Grubler, 1998; Martin, 1988 & JStO, GDP (199 US$) per capita Household Ownership (% of HH with) 1978 to 1985 (78-85 growth = colored) TV Refrigerator Washer Vaccum cl.

5 Cost Declines in Refrigerator Costs in US Source: OTA, Denmark Discount Rates Distribution Source: Harrison, Lou& Williams, AmEconRev., 22 (in press) Implict Discount Rates vs. Income: Purchase of Air Conditioners in US Source: Hausmann, HH income, US$(1994)/yr 12, 2, 3, 5, 7, 1, Implicit discount rate, %/yr

6 Energy Demand: The Industrial Ecologist s Perspective Product/service orientation Cradle-to-grave accounting: Net energy analysis (direct+indirect energy requirements) How to deal with structural change? Narrow single product/service perspective not sufficient How to deal with multi-factor productivity or services (costs, energy emissions, time, )? US- Energy per $ Value Added (prod./serv.) (TJ per Million $, energy embodiment, 1992 I-O data) Source: Carnegie Mellon Univ. Direct energy Product On-site Energy Transport Other Total supply sectors fertilizer passenger cars* hotels semiconductors real estate agents computer&data services * manufacturing of cars only Indirect energy Note product and value orientation: Energy embodied in car (here) vs. total energy use over lifetime of car Energy $ per VA $: industry vs. services (energy price differences) Carbon Intensity of Products/Services (2 digit SIC level) Source: Marland&Pippin, 199.

7 Energy Time Information: Intensity of Products/Activities Working time = Energy Real estate agents Asphalt Information = Chemical products Paints Radio/TV Drugs Iron & steel broadcasting Plastics Paper Metal Engines / turbines products Construction Textiles Food Entertainment Shoes Restaurants Agricultural services Communication Primary Energy = Source: D. Spreng, Economic Structural Change (based on Kuznets, 1971) Energy Demand: Social Science Perspectives on Value and Lifestyle Changes Given: Hierarchy of needs (Maslow) economists (action revealed preferences?) Constructed: Preferences discovered in process of establishing social relations (Douglas) cultural theory (perceptions preferences actions?) Generational change: Succession of cohorts (e.g. Keyfitz) demographers, cross-over scientists

8 Consumer Expenditures Structure in US (based on: Lebergott, 1993) US Time Energy-Diagram (cumulative percentage distribution) US - Time and Energy Use Time 1 9 hrs Energy(final) 1 9 kgoe kgoe/hr At home 835.5* At work Services Travel # 2.59 Total * Excluding sleeping time #Passenger travel only, rest of transportation accounted for at work

9 Typology of Value-ists Along 2 Dimensions of Social Relations & Associated Myths of Nature (Source: Mike Thompson) Germany: Car Ownership by Gender and Age Cohorts Source: Buttner&Grubler, Germany: Car Ownership of Female Age Cohorts Source: Buttner&Grubler, 1995.

10 Scenarios of Car Diffusion for a United Germany: 3 Scenarios: Constant 199 Rates, Trend, Green Generation 199: 79 Million Germans 35 Million Cars (26% female owners) 23: 77 Million Germans (7 by 25) 3 Million cars (24% female owners) 38 Million cars (36% female owners) 33 Million cars (41% female) Take-back Effects Components of Change in US Automobile Carbon Emissions (% change over 197) 3 Empty seats % Change over Passenger-km driven (estimate) Carbon emissions -2-3 Data ORNL 671, NPTS, 1992 Specific fuel consumption l/m