Energy in a Changing World

Transcription

1 Energy in a Changing World Roger Taylor National Renewable Energy Laboratory

2 Major DOE National Laboratories Pacific Northwest INEL National Renewable Lawrence Berkeley Energy Laboratory Lawrence Livermore Argonne Oak Ridge NETL Brookhaven Los Alamos Sandia Defense Program Labs Office of Science Labs Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Lab Environmental Management Lab Fossil Energy Lab

3 Major NREL Technology Thrusts Supply Side Wind Energy Solar Photovoltaics Concentrating Solar Power Solar Buildings Biomass Power Biofuels Geothermal Energy Hydrogen Superconductivity Distributed Power Demand Side Hybrid Vehicles Fuels Utilization Buildings Energy Technology Federal Energy Management Advanced Industrial Technologies Cross Cutting Basic Energy Science Analytical Studies International Programs Tribal Energy Program

4 Energy (Heat, Electricity & Fuel) Human Needs Environment (Air & Water) Agriculture (Food)

5 We Live in a Changing World

6 Where Carbon Reduction is a Requirement 2005 Warmest Year on Record Warming of 0.2 C/decade over last 30 years Source: J. Hansen, Goddard

7 Where U.S. Energy Consumption Continues to Grow Non-hydro Renewables Quadrillion BTUs Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas 20 Wood Crude Oil Imports 0 Coal Coal Source: , Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; , Annual Energy Review 2000, Table 1.3.

8 Where the global economy is very complex And it s largely dependent on cheap oil. Resource Raw Materials Exploitation Processing Manufacturing Consumption Waste Heat After: Charles Hall, SUNY Syracuse, ASPO 2005

9 ~$95/bbl Increasingly volatile, increasingly upward ~$77/bbl ~$60/bbl 10/17/06

10 After a decade of low prices, natural gas prices are now more volatile at a higher level. ~$15 MMBTU Henry Hub $9 $8 $7 ~$8.00 MMBTU Price ($/MMBtu) $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 Monthly price (real 2003 dollars) $1 $0 Monthly price (nominal dollars) Futures strip (from Nov. 5, 2003) Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 2/7/06

11 US Lower 48 Oil Discovery & Production 5 4 US Lower 48: annual oil "mean" discovery & production with Hubbert discovery model discovery smooth 5 yr model Hubbert disc. production Hubbert disc. shift 35 yr 3 oil price 2 proration 1 deepwater depression Jean Laherrère Jan year

12 Total U.S. Oil Production U.S. Oil Production Big, New Discoveries & New Technology AK...only shift the curve kb/d DW 5000 kb/d Lower kb/d Lower 48 Source: Tom Petrie at Denver World Oil Conference Alaska Deepwater

13 The Age of Oil

14 Our Great Grand Parents 7 Generations Span The Age of Oil Our Grand Parents Our Parents Our Generation Our Children Our Grand Children Our Great Grand Children Peak Oil Graph from: ASPO.com - Colin Campbell 2004

15 Source: The Oil Drum $113

16 ~75% Petroleum (assuming electric Irrigation) Earth Policy Institute from USDA & DOE data

17 ~10% of Total U.S. Energy Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 2000

18 Pineapples to Des Moines By sea from Costa Rica 0.3 gallons By air from Hawaii 2.8 gallons Iowa State University, Sierra

19 Three Great Challenges of the 21 st Century Energy, Climate, Food The Perfect Storm It s time to change direction SS Global Economy

20 Renewable Resource Options Wind Geothermal Biomass Hydro Solar

21 Renewable Technology Options Small Modular Power Small Wind Power Diesel Hybrids Direct Use Direct Use Big Wind PV - Remote Homes Small Hydro Stock Watering Process Heat Buildings

22 Building Design

23 Energy Efficiency

24 Wind Turbine Sizes and Applications Small ( 10 kw) Homes Farms Remote Applications (e.g. water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking) Intermediate ( kw) Village Power Hybrid Systems Distributed Power Large (250 kw 2+ MW) Central Station Wind Farms Distributed Power

25 Icepag Biomass & Bioenergy Flows Biomass Fiber pulp paper lumber plywood cotton Crops, Animals stalks & straws harvest residues forest slash forest harvest for energy plantations Process Residues black liquor sawdust bark Process Residues dung bagasse Materials Food Consumers MSW clean fraction yard trimmings constr. & demolition wood non-recyclable organics Energy Services Bioenergy Biofuels heat CHP electricity charcoal biogas ethanol

26 Solar Options

27 Geothermal Options

28 Small Hydro Power

29 Energy Price Comparison Resistance 150 ~ $0.50/kWh 75 ~ $5.50/gal $/MBTU 65 ~ $8.00/gal Heat Pump ~ $2.50/gal 27 ~ $2/gal 25 ~ $0.07/kWh NG #2 Oil Propane 7 Electric 7 Renewables

30 Some Challenging Questions: Where have we come from, and where are we going? What can we learn from the past? How do we shift from individualism to partnerships? How do we improve communication and coordination? How do we shift from modernism (new, bigger, faster) to community? How do we reduce consumption and produce locally? Civilizations are built on surplus. How do we shift from surplus to enough? A goal of communities is to provide and protect. How do we move to more local production? How do we shorten the supply chains? How do we move from fuel to food? How do we develop our local sources of energy? Heat, power, liquid fuels at a community scale, vs. commercial scale What are our local opportunities for energy efficiency and renewables? How do we plan for contraction and avoid collapse?

31 Tribal Energy Security & Sovereignty Through Local Self-Sufficiency Economic Dependence Oil Imports Fuel at the Pump National Grid Coal-based Power Water Transport Foreign Manufacturing Agro-Industry He who has the gold, makes the rules. Community Independence Self sufficiency Food Energy Water Skill Rebuilding Local Production Regional Sourcing Sufficiency & Enoughness Human Satisfaction Community of Cooperation

32 The Community Energy Development Challenge Legal Sovereignty, Codes & Standards, Contracts, Legal Authority Environment Earth, Air, Water, Parks, Open Space, Wildlife & Plants Financing Local Resources, Federal Grants, Green Tag Sales Partnerships General Council Tribal Council Community Champio n Or Team Strategic Plan Projects Community Energy Use & Growth Residential, Commercial, Industrial Loads Technology Energy Resources, Technology Options Power Markets On-Site Energy Displacement, Merchant Power Sales, Green Tag Sales