Coupled Hydrological and Thermal Modeling of Permafrost and Active Layer Dynamics: Implications to Permafrost Carbon Pool in Northern Eurasia

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1 Coupled Hydrological and Thermal Modeling of Permafrost and Active Layer Dynamics: Implications to Permafrost Carbon Pool in Northern Eurasia Sergey Marchenko & Vladimir Romanovsky University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA Dominik Wisser - Universität Bonn, Germany William Chapman - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, USA Steve Frolking - University of New Hampshire, USA John Walsh - International Arctic Research Center, UAF, USA CITES-2013, August 25 September 6, 2013, Petrozavodsk, Russia

2 Outlines Recent trends in permafrost temperatures Observed impact of permafrost degradation on ecosystems and infrastructure MPI-GIPL Permafrost dynamics model WBMPlus/MPI-GIPL Coupled Hydrologic-Permafrost Model Future Possible Changes in Climate and Permafrost Conclusions

3 In Situ Sensing Initiatives Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) Circumarctic Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) Global Terrestrial Network for Pernafrost (GTNet-P)

4

5 Yakutsk Region Yakutsk (Zheleznyak, 2008)

6 Recent (last years) Trends in Permafrost Permafrost temperature is increasing in most locations in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic There are some places where we don t see a noticeable increase, but there are no known sites where permafrost temperature is decreasing Typical increase in permafrost temperature is 0.5 to 3 C Active layer depth is increasing at some locations. There are some locations in the Western Eurasia, and Central Asian mountains where active layer doesn t re-freeze completely every year anymore The long-term permafrost thawing already started at some locations in natural undisturbed conditions

7 Photo: Sergei Marchenko Kolyma River, Northeast Siberia, Russia Photo by V.Romanovsky The most significant impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, carbon cycle and hydrology will be observed in areas where permafrost contains a considerable amount of ground ice in the upper few meters. Photo: Sergei Marchenko

8 Photo: Vlad Romanovsky Slope Instability and Active Layer Detachment Across Continuous Permafrost Zone Photo: Vlad Romanovsky

9 Thermokarst development and Impact on infrastructure in the Tien Shan Mountains, Kazakhstan, Central Asia Damage to buildings at the high mountain Space Rays Physics Research Station Lebedev s Institute of Physics, RAN 3,300 m ASL

10 Photo: Sergei Marchenko Weather Station Tien Shan Inner part of the Tien Shan mountains, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, 3614 m ASL

11 Permafrost thawing is already causing serious damage to buildings and industrial facilities and is projected to continue. Photo: Vlad Romanovsky

12 Building located in Chersky, East Siberia, is collapsing. Photo: Vlad Romanovsky Thermokarst depression on the edge of the Geophysical Institute UAF parking lot (Fairbanks, Alaska)

13 Temperature measurements and description of a physical model In-situ temperature measurements Temperature measurements at Deadhorse N 70 o I, W148 o I MPI-GIPL Model: 1D non-linear heat equation with water phase change solved numerically, no convective heat transport, and no internal sources or sinks of heat, unfrozen water content. Moss Peat 0.00m 0.08m 0.23m t Parameters: thermal conductivity, heat capacity, soil porosity, freezing point depression, etc. Assumption: fully saturated soil, thermal properties do not vary with depth within each layer. Mineral 0.53m Input: initial and boundary conditions are taken from temperature measurements. 0.99m 1/1/1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/ Given: temperature measurements at certain depths in the active layer and near-surface permafrost. x Find: thermal properties of each soil horizon.

14 Estimating thermal properties by temperature measurements Initial approximation to Thermal conductivity, soil porosity, etc. Compute temperature Thermal properties MODEL Temperature, 0 o C 10 0 Measured Computed Minimize the misfit locally by changing thermal properties along the direction of the steepest descent -10 1/1/1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 Time, days Compute a direction of the steepest descent of the misfit MODEL * Compute a misfit between measured and computed temperatures

15 Estimating thermal properties by temperature measurements Compute temperature Thermal properties MODEL Temperature, 0 o C 10 0 Measured Computed Minimize the misfit locally by changing thermal properties along the direction of the steepest descent -10 1/1/1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 Time, days Compute a direction of the steepest descent of the misfit MODEL * Compute a misfit between measured and computed temperatures

16 Example of the Geothermal Reanalysis for Specific Site in Northern Eurasia In the permafrost temperature reanalysis method variations in the air temperature and snow cover are the driving forces of the permafrost temperature dynamics. The model is calibrated for a specific site using measured permafrost and active layer temperatures and data from the closest meteorological station for the same time interval. Pleistocene Age Ice near Igarka Site, West Siberia

17 Toward the Coupled Model MPI-GIPL model is helpful tool for understanding the effects of climatic and landscape factors on heat flow and water phase change in soil retrospectively and prognostically, it does not simulate soil moisture dynamics and storage across diverse landscapes.

18 Hydro-Thermo Dynamics Model WBMplus/MPI-GIPL S. Marchenko, D. Wisser, V. Romanovsky, Frolking, S., and Vörösmarty, C. We couple a macroscale hydrologic model WBMPlus and one of the versions of the MPI-GIPL permafrost dynamics model Several key parameters: 1. Field capacity 2. Wilting point 3. Infiltration rate 4. Soil porosity 5. Soil Thermal Properties 6. Unfrozen Water Content 7. Freezing-point depression

19 WBMPlus/MPI-GIPL is a fully coupled soil water balance and heat transfer model that simulates: 1. Vertical water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere 2. Horizontal water transport 3. Lake / Reservoirs 4. Snow melt 5. Soil temperature dynamics 6. Depth of seasonal freezing and thawing by solving 1D non-linear heat equation with phase change numerically 7. Time of freeze up

20 Seasonality in Freezing/Thawing and Hydrology

21 Permafrost dynamics in a changing climate: Implications for Northern Peatlands Peatlands cover about 3 Mio km 2 north of 40 N (Mathews and Fung, 1987). It is estimated that about one-third of northern peatlands are in zones of continuous permafrost, with another 40% of northern peatlands in discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated permafrost zones (Smith et al., 2007).

22 HIRHAM5 4x4 km Pechora River Watershed domain (in yellow) HIRHAM integration domains; upper left: the 25x25km pan-arctic domain, highlighting the 4x4 km CARBO-North domain

23

24 Modeled distribution of peat depth CC Carbon Content OC Organic Content PD Peat Depth PDs Peat density ~ 130 kg/m 3 OC = 2 * CC PD = OC / PDs Proposed by Steve Frolking The peat depth is computed from the the carbon content [kg/m 2 ] of the FAO soil map (Webb et al., 2000, < under the assumption that half of the carbon is in the first upper layer. The peat density is assumed to be 130 kg/m 3.

25 Modeled distribution of soil thermal conductivity within the upper layer

26 Modeled peatland area with underlying permafrost at 2 m depth for 2009, 2050, and 2100 using climate forcing from five IPCC GCM composite A1B CO2 emission scenario

27 Mean annual air temperature (five IPCC GCM composite A1B CO2 emission scenario) and soil temperature at 0.5 m depth reconstructed for 2001 and predicted for 2050 and 2100

28 Mean annual soil temperature at 2 m and 5 m depth reconstructed for 2001 and predicted for 2050 and 2100 using five IPCC GCM composite A1B CO2 emission scenario as a climate forcing

29

30

31

32 Conclusions Coupled Hydrologic-Permafrost Model gives a satisfactory results, however to capture correct temperature dynamics in the Arctic regions several improvements mostly addressed to soil thermal properties parameterization and input datasets are required. Peatlands have unique thermal and hydraulic properties that need to be explicitly considered in coupled permafrost-hydrology models. Sensitivity Analysis shown increase in run-off is about 10-20% if Stefan solution (thawing/freezing module) is incorporated

33 Conclusions (continue) Pechora River Watershed. The results show that in 1980, 75% of the available cm Gelisol soil organic carbon content is affected by seasonal thawing. In 2050 the proportion is increased to 86% and by 2090 almost the whole study area has an active layer deeper than 2 meter (97%). This indicates an increase from approximately 0.65% to 0.85% of the total cm soil organic carbon mass in the northern permafrost region. Northern Eurasia. Our projections have shown that unfrozen volume of soil within two upper meters increases to 3,500 km3 by 2050 and to 9,500 km3 by the last decade of the 21st century due to active layer deepening. According to this specific climate scenario, the area of permafrost with active layer shallower than 2 m in depth could decrease from 10,800,000 km2 in 2000 to 9,000,000 km2 by 2050 and to 6,000,000 km2 by the end of current century.

34 Post-scriptum Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) Distributed Hydrological Model Applications to Date: 2D Overland Flow 2D Groundwater Storm & Tile Drains Water Quality Infiltration, Snow Melt Wetlands Hydrology Evapotranspiration Lakes / Reservoirs Radar, Rain Gage Rainfall Link to Habitat Models Sediment Transport Permafrost component incorporated

35 Finite difference discretization in GSSHA Where, K, hydraulic conductivity is a function of temperature, t. t is provided by GIPL Coupling MPI-GIPL in GSSHA GSSHA representation of the unsaturated zone. y i n i n i n i y i n i n i n i i i n n i n i h t t h t t h h t H t H, / 1, / 1 2) 1/ 1 ) ( 2 ) ( ) ( Implicit finite difference scheme in GIPL Where,, thermal conductivity is a function of soil moisture,. is provided by GSSHA

36 Living on permafrost Thank You This research was funded by Office of Polar Programs, National Science Foundation (OPP , OPP , OPP ) and by the State of Alaska.

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