Australian gas outlook. Gas Seminar 2017 Gas Vision 2050 ZINC, Federation Square, Melbourne Wednesday, 28 June
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1 Australian gas outlook Gas Seminar 2017 Gas Vision 2050 ZINC, Federation Square, Melbourne Wednesday, 28 June
2 About APPEA The Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA) represents the collective interest of Australia s upstream oil and gas industry. APPEA has around 200 members; oil and gas explorers and producers active in Australia and companies providing goods and services to those explorers and producers. APPEA member companies produce around 98% of Australia s oil and gas. 2
3 Australia s upstream oil and gas industry by the numbers Share of primary energy 62% Value of production $30 billion Share of Australia s GDP 1.9% LNG capital investment since 2010 $200 billion LNG exports ( ) $23.7 billion Share of commodity exports ( ) 11% LNG exports ( forecast) $44 billion Share of commodity exports ( forecast) 20% LNG operating expenditure $8 $9 billion per annum Employment 55,000 to 65,
4 APPEA is a member of the Gas Vision 2050 group 3
5 Four points along the road (with some detours) to 2050 Gas critical role in the Australian economy. Industry, power and export. The role of gas as a cleaner energy source. Energy and climate change policies should be integrated: some observations post-finkel Review. The role of natural gas in complementing renewable energy. Gas is essential as we move towards a low emissions economy. The future of the east coast gas market and the challenges facing the market in sourcing adequate gas supply to avoid further market disruption. More supply is critical. 5
6 Natural gas: key to a low carbon world 6
7 The global context: growing gas demand Source: International Energy Agency (2016) Source: International Energy Agency (2016) 7
8 The global context: growing gas demand Source: International Energy Agency (2016) Source: International Energy Agency (2016) 8
9 The Finkel Review Final Report 9
10 The Finkel Review Final Report Source: Blueprint for the future: Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market (2017) 12
11 Fuel switching the US example Source: Energy Information Administration (2016) 13
12 Natural gas and renewables can be partners Natural gas can and should play a key role in complementing renewables in the move to a cleaner energy future. Gas-fired generation has quick ramp-up times and lower capital costs than traditional baseload technologies. Renewables and fast-reacting gas-fired power generation technologies appear as highly complementary and they should be jointly installed to meet the goals of cutting emissions and ensuring a stable supply. This mean that as the penetration of renewable energy increases, so will the requirements for increased back-up capacity. A debate that sets up renewables and gas as being in opposition misses this important point. 14
13 Australia s LNG projects Source: Department of Industry, innovation and Science (2016) 15
14 LNG a long-term game Long-lived assets High upfront capital expenditure Price takers in global market Footloose capital Up to 40 years (Australia s NWS project exporting since 1989) ~$54 billion (Gorgon), ~$44 billion (Wheatstone), ~$42 billion (Ichthys) Linked to volatile oil prices and global supply/demand balance 18 LNG exporting countries Competition for investment Australia s LNG industry is source of long-term competitive strength and opportunity for the nation, not some sort of problem we have to solve. 16
15 The future of the east coast gas market Source: Australian Energy Market Operator (2016) Which sustainable supply options can fill any gaps? What new investments are required over what timeframe to bring these supplies to market? What is the impact of policy decisions on supply availability and cost? What are the implications for Australian gas markets? Source: Australian Energy Market Operator [NB:- TO BE UPDATED] (2017) Source: Australian Energy Market Operator [NB:- TO BE UPDATED] (2017) 17
16 The future of the east coast gas market Developed and planned gas resources are not enough to meet projected demand. McKinsey & Co estimate around $50b in new investment is required between now and Multiple options exist to balance demand and supply, all of which are commercially or politically challenged today: Develop more onshore gas resources in Queensland; develop new onshore gas resources in NSW and Victoria; build pipeline infrastructure to bring gas from NT. Enabling investments required to balance supply/demand in the long-term requires choices to be made today. The various gas market reform processes underway are important, but will be of limited value if more gas cannot flow into the market. More supply is critical. 19
17 A very full gas policy agenda COAG Energy Council Gas Market Reform Package. Gas Market Reform Group Budget package. Actions agreed with the Prime Minister in March ACCC wholesale gas market monitoring. The 2017 Review of Australia s Climate Change Policies. Follow-up to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax Review. And then there is the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism All of this comes on top of a very active reform process over the last decade And this is just the national energy and climate change related policy agenda 20
18 The Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism The Regulations come into effect on 1 July The gas export controls are a short-term measure. They risk exacerbating tight market conditions unless accompanied by genuine reforms. Restricting exports in this way is almost unprecedented for Australia. At a time when we need $50b in new investment to develop more gas supply, and the industry has already invested, in good faith, over $200b in Australia, interventions that create sovereign risk are alarming. The main obstacle to developing more supply remains the opposition of some State governments. The way to ensure long-term energy security is to remove restrictions. The only enduring solution is more gas, not more regulation. 21
19 Gas prices Phil Coorey, 17 th June
20 Wholesale price levels by country 2016 Source: International Gas Union (2017; forthcoming) 22
21 Wholesale price levels by country 2016 Source: International Gas Union (2017; forthcoming) 22
22 Four points along the road (with some detours) to 2050 Gas critical role in the Australian economy. Industry, power and export. The role of gas as a cleaner energy source. Energy and climate change policies should be integrated: observations post-finkel Review. The role of natural gas in complementing renewable energy. Gas is essential as we move towards a low emissions economy. The future of the east coast gas market and the challenges facing the market in sourcing adequate gas supply to avoid further market disruption. More supply is critical. 23
23 THANK YOU! 23
24 Australian gas outlook Gas Seminar 2017 Gas Vision 2050 ZINC, Federation Square, Melbourne Wednesday, 28 June
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