Energy Perspectives for Asia
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1 Energy Perspectives for Asia By Rajiv Ranjan Mishra Nov 21, 2017
2 Energy Asia
3 Population Asia 4.06 billion 55% of World 8X of EU Expected to be 8.5 billion by 2030 Source: World Bank, 2016; UN
4 GDP Per Capita (USD) 1,639 South Asia 9,786 East Asia & Pacific 32,058 EU Tale of Two Asia Asia Source: World Bank, 2016; UN
5 Electricity Per Capita (kwh) 707 South Asia 3,679 East Asia & Pacific 5,908 EU Huge potential & high aspiration but gap continues! Energy Source: World Bank, 2014; UN
6 Intelligent Maths, Never Ending Debate Gross Emissions Vs Per Capita Emissions
7 Most major Asian Economies have realised that. they can t live like Western World, not because of economic constraints, but environmental constraints. We simply don t have enough space & natural resources.
8 Options in our Hands
9 Climate Policy Options Reduce Emissions Vs Reduce GDP Intensity Low baselines Millions still await basic needs Fuel growth Efficient new products Cap and Trade Vs Tax / Incentives Not so mature economy Challenge of fixing Cap in high growth environment Reduce volatility for investor Simple process Therefore, many countries are opting for GDP intensity and Tax/ Incentive as key climate policy instrument
10 Energy Mix Options Affordable Reliable Scalable Sustainable Coal Nuclear? Wind?? Solar? Hydro??
11 China India Who has selected what? Peaking of emissions by 2030 or earlier Cut GPD s Emission Intensity to 60% 65% from 2005 levels by 2030 Increase share of non-fossil energy to 20% Maintain per capita emissions under the level of developed countries Cut GPD s CO₂ emission intensity to 33% 35% from 2005 levels by 2030 Increase share of non-fossil energy to 40% by 2030 Indonesia Reduce emissions 29% by 2030 compared to BAU Further reductions up to 41%, subject to availability of international financial support Japan Reduce emissions by 26% from 2013 levels by 2030 Australia Reduce emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030
12 Action Plans & Progress China Interim target to increase share of gas to 10% and non-fossil fuel to 20% by 2020 Build a record 30GW of solar PV in 2016, along with 23GW of wind and 12GW of hydro Developing additional 27 nuclear plants China s coal consumption declined over three consecutive years (2013 to 2016) Announced South-South Climate Cooperation Fund to start 100 mitigation projects in developing countries India Target of 175 GW RE by 2022, of which 100 GW will be solar Added 4.3GW of solar, including one of the World s largest PV project of 648 MW in 2016 Also added 3.6 GW of wind, and 310 MW of small hydro in 2016 Launched International Solar Alliance (ISA) to increase of solar power in 100+ countries 15 countries have submitted the formal Instrument of ratification for ISA, making it an international legal body
13 Action Plans & Progress Indonesia Plans to increase the share of RE from 6% in 2012 to at least 23% by 2025 Planned to implement 4.4 GW of geothermal, 4.6 GW hydro and 1.65 GW mini-hydro Out of the additional 35 GW of proposed capacity, only 60% will be from coal 9GW of coal generation projects put on hold until at least 2020 Japan Aims to meet 10% 11% of energy demand from nuclear and 13% 14% from RE Reduce overall energy demand by 13% through energy efficiency policies Nuclear Regulation Authority allowed the government to restart two reactors in 2015 Australia Allocated AUD 2.55 bn to purchase carbon credits through a reverse auction process Target to achieve 25% of Australia s electricity from RE by 2020 Safeguard Mechanism to impose emissions baselines on ~140 entities from 1 July 2016
14 Challenges China Enormous scale of energy demand- expected to be twice that of the US by 2040 India Indonesia Japan Australia Given the pressing need to reduce domestic energy poverty, India continues to stress the importance of increasing access to energy as a priority over reducing emissions With demand for energy expected to triple by 2030, the ability to reduce emissions is challenged by the need to meet growing energy demand to support economic growth Significant potential of untapped hydro and geothermal resources - the lack of regulatory clarity and investor confidence are hampering development Continue to rely on fossil fuels to meet 75% of its energy needs through 2030 Effects of the nuclear shutdown In short term, faces key challenges to achieving its INDC goals while transitioning to a low-carbon economy RE Target is losing its power to encourage investment Sharp price spikes in South Australia s wholesale electricity prices in Jul and Aug 17 - partly attributed to high RE penetration (among the highest in the world)
15 Keep your eyes on! One Belt One Road US$ 1 Tn investment in energy & infra in 50 developing countries across Eurasia and East Africa US$ 55 Bn committed by China s two national banks Large Scale Battery Manufacturing Focus on cost effectiveness and production scale like solar modules China expected to dominate the market by 2021 Electric Vehicles Government push in both India and China with supporting regulations and subsidies Transformation of traditional utility and auto sectors China became the world s largest EV market in 2016, selling nearly twice the number of new electric vehicles as the second -placed U.S Energy Transition Grid integration of renewables with reliability and security in Australia Regulatory intervention bringing battery storage and micro grids
16 Smiles are at stake. Act Now
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