Climate of the Southeast United States. Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability

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1 Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability

2 2013 Southeast Climate Consortium All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Citation: Keywords: climate impacts, climate modeling, climate variability, coastal, drought, education, electric intrusion, sea level rise, silviculture, social vulnerability, Southeast, storm surge, tropical Tribal Government or Non-governmental entity. Front Cover Images:

5 About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the Third National and Congress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates - - input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts ing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the Third NCA report, - -. Printed copies are avail-

7 Climate of the Southeast United States Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability EDITORS Keith T. Ingram (University of Florida) Kirstin Dow (University of South Carolina) Lynne Carter (Louisiana State University) Julie Anderson (Louisiana State University) EDITORIAL ASSISTANCE Eleanor K. Sommer (Gainesville, Florida)

9 Acknowledgements Editor's Note: Access to color maps and graphs for this document are avail- Disclaimer: ix

11 Contents Acknowledgements ix CHAPTER 1 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Diversity and Vulnerabilities Time-scales of Interest to Southeast Decision Makers Future Scenarios Process for Developing this Book Report Organization References 7 CHAPTER 2 CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHEAST USA: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE General Description Extreme Events Trends Future Projections References 36 CHAPTER 3 HUMAN HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Climate Change and Human Health Heat and Cold Air Quality Effects on Respiratory and Airway Diseases Storms, Extreme Weather, and Sea Level Rise Harmful Algal Blooms and Marine Toxins Vector-borne and Zoonotic Disease Water Quality and Quantity Human Migration and Displacement and Healthcare Disruption References 55 CHAPTER 4 ENERGY PRODUCTION, USE, AND VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Status and Outlook for Energy Production and Use in the Southeast Impact of Climate Change on Energy Supply and Demand in the Southeast Key Issues and Uncertainties References 82

12 CHAPTER 5 CLIMATE INTERACTIONS WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Background Air Quality The Urban Heat Island Effect Effects on Precipitation Effects on the Wild Land-Urban Interface (WUI) Vulnerability and Risks to Tourism Impacts on Energy, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Impacts on National Security Impacts on Urban Migration Impacts on Coastal Environments Summary of Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment References 103 CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Evaluation of Southeast Transportation Systems Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Systems Conclusions References 126 CHAPTER 7 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Agriculture in the Southeast USA Climate Sensitivities and Vulnerabilities Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability in the Southeast USA Assessment and Research Needs References 155 CHAPTER 8 FORESTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Historical Perspective Southeastern Forest Types Changes in Forest Type Across the South Current and Projected Forest Stresses Ecosystem Services Adaptation and Mitigation Options Conclusions References 183

13 CHAPTER 9 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Background Climate Change Effects Complicating Factors Adaptation and Mitigation Research Needs References 204 CHAPTER 10 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Water Resources in the Southeast Key Constraints to Water Resources in the Southeast Historical Climate Trends Uncertainty in Predicting Future Climate and Hydrologic Impacts Water Resources Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Options References 230 CHAPTER 11 THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHEAST USA Background Southeastern Freshwater Aquatic Ecosystems Southeastern Savannas Southeastern Freshwater Marshes and Swamps Southeastern Tidal Marshes and Swamps Coral Reefs of the Southeast USA Summary References 259 CHAPTER 12 MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Definitions Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks in the Southeast GHG Emission Reduction Activities Research Needs and Uncertainties References 291

14 CHAPTER 13 CLIMATE ADAPTATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST USA Definition of Adaptation Major Stresses on the Southeast Adaptation in the Southeast Supporting Adaptive Capacity Summary References 316 CHAPTER 14 SOUTHEAST USA REGIONAL CLIMATE EXTENSION, OUTREACH, EDUCATION, AND TRAINING Why Climate Education Is an Essential Part of Climate Science A Starting Point for Climate Education: Climate versus Weather Context for Climate Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Delivery Methods Program Integration Barriers to Extension, Outreach, Education, and Training Regarding Climate Change Ongoing Education, Outreach, Extension, and Training Programs Conclusions References 339

The National Climate Assessment: Overview

The National Climate Assessment: Overview Jayantha Obeysekera South Florida Water Management District Member, National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) Florida Water and Climate