Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies

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1 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Strategies 2011 ITE Quad Conference April 18 19, 2011, Embassy Suites; Lynnwood, WA Victor L. Sl Salemann, PE Senior Associate David Evans and Associates Bellevue, WA

2 US GHG Emissions

3 World GHG Emissions

4 One Ton of CO2

5 Why Care about GHG Modeling? Desire to understand VMT change with and without City Center Future alternative revenue sources for transportation Consistency with local and regional transportation planning policy Consistency with future green house gas emission policy

6 Lynnwood Vicinity Lynnwood

7 Lynnwood City Limits

8 Lynnwood City Center ITE Quad Conference

9 City Center Concept Three Districts West End Residential Core Office and Retail North End Office and Retail Mixed Use (9.1 Million Sqft) 1.5 Million Sqft Retail 4.5 Million Sqft commercial and office 3,000 residential dwelling units 20 Year Plan Source: City Center Sub-Area Plan, City of Lynnwood, June 2010

10 City Center Roadway Improvements New street grid system in Core Area 7 lane Road on 196 th St SW and 44 th Ave W 5 Lane Road on 200 th St SW Adding New Signals and Pockets at Intersections 194 th St Pl SW Extension Source: City Center Street Master Plan, City of Lynnwood, 2009

11 Two Scenarios Tested Base Scenario: 9.1 Million Sqft mixed use land use Peanut butter spread outside the City Center but within Snohomish County No City Center Grid System No new road and intersection improvements around City Center Build Scenario: 9.1 Million Sqft mixed use development located in City Center area City Center Grid GidSystem New roadway and intersection improvements around City Center

12 Lynnwood Travel Demand Model King and Snohomish Counties Included City-wide

13 No Build Trip Distribution

14 With City Center Trip Distribution

15 No Build 196 th St Flow Bundle

16 With City Center 196 th St Flow Bundle

17 GHG Emissions Analysis Vehicle Miles of Travel How many Trips? V = Vehicles Hog Long are the Trips? M = Miles Greenhouse Gas Emissions Total VMT by Vehicle Fuel type and consumption by Vehicle Emissions based on fuel consumption (delay ignored)

18 VMT Modeling Flow Chart

19 City Center Subarea VMT City Center: 2,717 or 28% PM Peak Hour VMT Increase Snohomish County Lynnwood King County

20 City of Lynnwood VMT Lynnwood Except City Center: 3,870 or 3.6% PM Peak Hour VMT Increase Snohomish County Lynnwood King County

21 Sub Regional VMT Outside Lynnwood and City Center: 8,900 or 0.6% PM Peak Hour VMT Decrease Snohomish County Lynnwood King County

22 Regional VMT Entire Region: 2,312 or 0.1% PM Peak Hour VMT Decrease Snohomish County Lynnwood King County

23 PM Peak Hour Alternative Mode VMT Alternative Mode Travel Leads to reduction of 2,500 PM Peak Hour Trips Transit Carpool Vanpool Bicycling and walking New bus service added to expansion of transit center leads to increase of 30 PM peak hour transit trips

24 PM Peak Hour VMT to Annual VMT Convert SOV PM peak hour VMT to Annual VMT K factor: Effective days per year: 300 days Heavy vehicle percentage: 2% Convert Alternative Mode PM peak hour VMT to Annual VMT PM peak hours last per day: 5 hours Effective days per year: 300 days Trip length: 5 miles/trip

25 Total Annual VMT Reduction

26 CO 2 Calculation 2

27 CO 2 Emissions Calculation Flow Chart 2

28 CO 2 Calculation Results 2

29 Conclusions Increased development in City Center results in more origins and destinations at the City Center; therefore the local VMT increases Trips from outside of the City Center decrease accordingly, which results in VMT decreases for the areas outside of the City Overall, regional VMT decreases slightly from both reduced travel demand and mode shift

30 Conclusions continued The build Scenario improves transportation efficiency for the surrounding region by concentrating jobs and homes in a high density urban center and reducing the need for residents to travel to neighboring cities for work, shopping, and other needs, which would thereby reduce future total VMT and the CO 2 emissions in the region compared to the No Build Scenario. The analysis demonstrates the VMT reduction benefits of encouraging transit trips by creating a transit oriented development.

31 Other Applications GHG impacts from delay reductions Intersection improvements (signals, roundabouts, interchanges) Arterial improvements (road diets, access management, new lanes) Does the delay reduction attract traffic in addition to reducing delay increasing demand and VMT? GHG impacts from corridor improvements VMT reduced by shorter more direct route VMT increased because of induced demand Results are usually regional

32 Acknowledgments City of Lynnwood Staff Jeff Elekes, Deputy Public Works Director David Mach, Project Manager Sandra Howe, Project Manager David Kleitsch, Economic Development Director

33 References Emission Facts, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EAP 420 f ), February 2005

34 Author s information Victor L. Salemann, Sr. Associate David Evans and Associates th Avenue SE Bellevue, WA voice Min Luo, Traffic Engineer David Evans and Associates th Avenue SE Bellevue, WA voice

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