The systems analysis must

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1 The systems analysis must Professor Semida Silveira PhD, Head of Division Energy and Climate studies Department of Energy Technology School of Industrial Technology and Management KTH Energy Initiative Energy and Climate Studies at KTH 1

2 The global primary energy supply Source: IEA

3 Enormous challenges in the development of energy systems: provide 1.5 billion people with energy access seriously address climate change reverse trends and accelerate the shift towards sustainable systems with less impacts on the environment and health attract huge investments to expand and change the energy sector change preferences and behavior in energy use avoid disruptions in the economy How to conciliate these goals? Energy and Climate Studies at KTH 3

4 A systems approach is a must to understand the evolution of energy systems to verify the sustainability of technological path options to explore options for sustainable energy systems to plan the transformation of energy systems to provide a framework for market development to balance society s preferences and multiple interests to monitor change Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 4

5 Cutting energy related CO 2 emissions hydro (2,2%) Emissions reductions where? gas (20,5%) nuclear (6,2%) comb ren & other (0,6%) waste (10,1%) oil (34,4%) coal (26%) World 2006, IEA World energy demand rises by 52% between now and 2030 in the reference scenario Source: IEA 2008, in support to G8 plan of action 5

6 Future sustainable energy systems in Sweden Is technology development enough to achieve it? No, necessary but not enough. Åkerman et al, 2007 Environmental Strategies Research Group - FMS Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 6

7 Future sustainable energy systems in Sweden Scenarios for sustainable energy supply Åkerman et al, 2007 Environmental Strategies Research Group - FMS Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 7

8 Urbanization and environmental impacts /transportation/energy services/energy efficiency Multiple systems functions - Energy system - Economy - Social - Environmental - Land use - Ecology - Hydrology - Mörtberg, Balfors et al. Environmental Management and Assessment research group Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 8

9 Environmental Assessment Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) A legal requirement for plans and programmes energy plans Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) A legal requirement energy projects Environmentally and climate adapted energy system - facilitate a comprehensive comparison of alternative strategies Analytical methodologies in the framework of SEA (link to EIA, Green Procurement ) Mörtberg, Balfors et al. Environmental Management and Assessment research group Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 9

10 Energy challenges sustainable solutions are in the intersections technological challenge restructuring of markets less fossil fuels more renewables efficient energy supply and use sustainable development ecologically, socially and economically robust systems; increased energy service access; climate change mitigation competitive markets new systems new investment patterns Energy and Climate Studies at KTH 10

11 Bioenergy intersections resource management multiple use of resources structural changes in exchange flows between natural and human systems improved performance of conversion; biomass resource enhancement; multiple applications technological challenge sustainable development restructuring of markets land use change; biodiversity; socio-economic development in rural areas; economic robustness of local and global systems; climate change mitigation and adaptation scale optimization for different applications in competitive markets; project structure and finance; risk management Energy and Climate Studies at KTH 11

12 Sizing the bioenergy potential through a systems perspective POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENT LOCAL POTENTIAL Natural conditions Know-how Agricultural and forestry development Logistics / infrastructure Collection/processing Road/railroad systems Storage Industrial synergy Logistics / infrastructure Distribution District cooling / heating Road / railroad systems Ports DEMAND MARKETS Local Regional International Biomass sources Forest residues Agriculture residues Energy crops Waste Conversion technology CHP (co-generation) Integration with other production systems Biofuels for transport Heat / cooling End - uses Biofuels for transport Electricity Refrigeration Heat Energy and Climate Studies research group Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 12

13 Bioenergy in Sweden today 13

14 Sugar ethanol in modern Brazil 14

15 The bioenergy reality of many developing countries Energy and Climate Studies at KTH 15

16 Emissions (ton carbon per capita) Emissions reductions where? USA Canada, Australia, New Zealand Russia Japan OECD Europe Other EIT Middle East China Latin America Other Asia Africa India 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Population (million) Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 16

17 Questions to be asked when assembling models of coupled human and natural systems applied to the context of bioenergy (1) What temporal horizon is appropriate for the model? Energy and Climate Studies at KTH 17

18 Bioenergy potential in 2050 for different scenarios harves ting res idues bioenergy crops North America Caribean & Latin America W.Europe E.Europe Near East & North Africa sub-saharan Africa CIS & Baltic States South Asia East Asia Japan Ameri Oceania America Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, 2004 Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University 18

19 GJ/HA/YR Net primary energy from crops and plantations NET PRIMARY ENERGY FROM CROPS AND PLANTATIONS Willow & Poplar Tropical Plantation, e.g. Eucaliptus Miscanthus Switch Grass Sugarcane Wood Com. Forest Sugar beet Europe Rapeseed Maximum Minimum IPCC,

20 Questions to be asked when assembling models of coupled human and natural systems applied to the context of bioenergy (2) What spatial extent is appropriate for the systems? 20

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22 Sugarcane belt in the world Sugar beet belt in the world 22

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24 Questions to be asked when assembling models of coupled human and natural systems applied to the context of bioenergy (3) What decision making unit should be selected? 24

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26 Questions to be asked when assembling models of coupled human and natural systems applied to the context of bioenergy (4) What is the nature of the linkage between the human and natural system, what information should pass between the systems where they are linked, and at what time interval should the links occur? 26

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28 Where to expand ethanol production with sustainability? High Middle Low Not proper Without irrigation With some irrigation Source: Unicamp; CTC,

29 (5) What is the role of stochastic events or critical thresholds in the evolution of the two systems? 29

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31 Questions to be asked when assembling models of coupled human and natural systems applied to the context of bioenergy (6) Is there enough information to adequaly model a dynamic human system, a dynamic natural system, and their linkages in a way that captures essential elements of reality? 31

32 HDI human development index in relation to per capita energy consumption HDI connected to residential electricity consumption in the Amazon region 2005 UNDP, Gomez and Silveira, 2010 Energy and Climate Studies research group 32

33 Rapid urbanization with slow development in many parts of the world 33

34 Systems analysis tools are a must when addressing complex energy challenges; when planning for efficient, reliable and carbon free energy systems in a context of stringent environmental and economic constraints; when evaluating options Through interdisciplinary research, KTH can be an important player in shaping sustainable energy systems Energy and Climate Studies at KTH semida.silveira@energy.kth.se 34

35 Thank you for your attention! 35