Bay of Fundy: Tides and Sea Level Rise SC 211, June 2, Gary Oberts

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1 Bay of Fundy: Tides and Sea Level Rise SC 211, June 2, Gary Oberts 1.

2 2.

3 3.

4 4.

5 Causes of Sea Level Rise* Warming expands water (~50%) Glacier/ice sheet melt (~50%) Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica South Cascade Glacier, WA 1960 and 2004 (NAS, 2008) *Percentages currently under much discussion and revision as temps raise and ice melts 5.

6 From Donaghue,

7 Peak SLR rate = 45mm/yr 7.

8 ~0.1mm/yr 8.

9 9.

10 Today s revised rate of SLR = mm/yr. (~0.1 /yr) From: CU Sea Level Research Group Nov

11 Sea Level Change and Rate of Change Since 1880 (red lines observed) Rate Changes Last 5K years = ~0.1mm/yr 20 th Cent. = 1.7 mm/yr = 1.8 mm/yr Current (2015) = mm/yr From Vermeer and Ramstorf,

12 12.

13 Updates 28 Sen. James Inhofe s Nov 2014 prediction of 1 IPCC,

14 Complicating Factors: Building a Realistic Scenario* Start with +1m SL increase Add tides and exceptional (King) tides Add wave run-up distance and height (video) and possibility of extreme (rogue, tsunami) waves Add storm surges *High water focus 14.

15 King Tides Definition: extreme wintertime high tide events that occur during spring tides as the result of the combined gravitational forces of the sun and moon. Broad Beach, Malibu: Photos by Laurel Bartels,

16 16.

17 LAT Broad Beach

18 18.

19 H D Graphic from U. Wisc. Sea level rise acts as the baseline reference point to which storm surge height is added. World Bank,

20 Wave Runup 20.

21 21. Coastal Flooding Extreme Waves

22 coastal floods may reach locally rare heights more swiftly in southern California than almost any other (23 studied) area, when considering effects of sea level rise integrated with storm surge patterns From Tebaldi et al. (NOAA),

23 Accelerated erosion of slope toes 23.

24 Crystal Cove Erosion ~5 24.

25 Recall highest tides with 1m SLR added in: 2011 = = 9.6 Seawalls now at 9 Photo and map from OC Register, March

26 Long Beach Light blue = current 100-yr floodplain Dark blue = modeled with +1.4m (55 ) rise by ~2100 Pacific Institute,

27 Pacific Institute,

28 Pacific Institute,

29 Pacific Institute,

30 S.F. Bay 30.

31 31.

32 San Diego Bay 32.

33 Questions? Slides will be posted on OLLI blog at 33.

34 Possible Abrupt Changes (IPCC, 2007) Ocean circulation and acidification Ice cover/glacier ablation Sea level rise (coastal/island inundation) Hydrologic cycle (floods and droughts) Ecosystem changes Rapid release of methane from permafrost and ocean sediments Increased risk of species extinctions

35 Sea levels (4-6m) higher than today with temps 5-9ºF higher (~2100 prediction) Last ice age ended ~10,000 years ago, sea levels about 390 (120m) lower Latest predictions for range Update May 2012 = 395

36 Expected range for 2100 Long-term modern average ~280 ppm

37 18.

38

39 Tidal Surfing

40 Major Information Sources IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) National Academies (Science and Engineering) U.S. Global Change Research Program (13 Fed. Agencies) CA Climate Change Center (core research at Scripps and UCB) and Climate Action Team (state agencies) National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate peer-reviewed literature (lots!) World Bank U.S. Army Corps of Engineers UCSD-Scripps Coastal Data Information Program 3

41 Temperature Weather vs. Climate Weather Time 4

42 NASA: Mean SLR = mm/yr 3.18mm/yr = ~1.3 /decade over

43 8 From U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2011

44 It s not a catastrophic end of civilization but major adaptation to change and life as we know it; Problem is acceleration in rate of change not that earth has never seen these temps Reference dates - Today 395 ppm - IPCC ppm - IPCC ppm ?? 10 Sea levels (4-6m) higher than today with temps 5-9ºF higher (~2100 prediction) Last ice age peaked ~20,000 years ago, sea levels about 390 (120m) lower

45 SL = -120m SL = current 14 NOAA graphics

46 CA Climate Change Research Center (2009) 11 7 ºF 3 < 20 th Century SLR constant = 3.4 mm/yr/ C 18

47 El Nino warmer oceans, more storm intensity La Nina cooler oceans, less storm intensity Storm surges add intensity 32 Graphic buy John F. Henz

48 33 Graphic from Scripps Coastal Data Information Program, May 2012

49 44 Pop.>

50 ~Maryland ~1.2% of U.S. 45 From Strauss et al., 2012

51 +1.5m Olympia, WA - SLR Current Worstcase Scenario (~0.8m) 47

52 48 World Bank assessment of top 25 cities over 100,000 population and countries impacted by rising sea levels (2012)

53 49 Alliance of Small Island States: 42 countries, 5% global population

54 50 Banda Aceh, Indonesia 2004 Sumatra (island) tsunami

55 51 Mekong Delta, Vietnam

56 53 Mekong River, Cambodia (tidal influenced)

57 Malé, capital of Maldives Shanghai 55

58 Tarawa, Kiribati pop.~30,000 Tuvalu pop. 11,000 56

59 Other Effects of SLR Biophysical effects of SLR on coastal regions include: - Inundation, flood and storm damage - Wetland loss - Erosion - Saltwater intrusion - Coral bleaching from higher sea water temperatures - Ocean productivity changes and species migration. 57 Socio-economic impacts - Increased loss of property and coastal habitats - Increased flood risk and potential loss of life - Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure - Loss of renewable and subsistence resources - Loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions.

60 Adaptation Disaster preparedness Evacuation Prediction Development planning, phased evacuation and building codes Engineering upgrades Define impact zones (floodplains, wave runup, wetlands) Assess infrastructure (floodwalls, erosion prevention, drainage) Install detection systems(surges, waves) Focus international aid (ex. World Bank) Modernize insurance rates 58

61 Why So Much Concern Now? 5 Identified as most serious possible abrupt change by IPCC in 2007 and more data showing that s true Rate of rise has accelerated from ~1.7 mm/yr (0.07 ) during 20th century to 3.2 mm/yr (0.13 ) over the past 20 years and up to today This rate accelerating and expected to continue with warming Related to SLR are: Storm surges Extreme high ( king ) tides and waves Coastal development CA study (SFSU, 2011) shows $100B property at risk for 1m SLR and $14B annually needed to protect property

62 Impacts of Sea Level Rise: Not Just a Third World Problem Biggest problem flooding especially if high tide occurs with storm surge, high waves and El Niño Major coastal erosion Salination of coastal groundwater, estuaries, wetlands Infrastructure impacts for CA ($100B at max. 55 rise) Transportation (highway, rail, shipping, air) Urbanized areas Oil, natural gas, electric facilities Water and wastewater treatment 104 Harbors/ports 6

63 Oceans (sea level) CA coastal sea level increased 7-8 in last 100 years Predictions for CA are additional rise by 2100* 100-year flood event will become a 10-year event *From CA Climate Change Research Center 2009: IPCC 2007 predicted

64 From Tebaldi et al. (NOAA), 2012 (Note: CA Climate Change Center predicts m SLR by 2050) Refs. NASA and French Space Agency,

65 Mean ~1.5m 22 From Strauss et al., 2012

66 S.M. 2012* High = Low = Add 3.3 (1m) New High = San Fran. = 10.1 Balboa = 9.6 (11.3 actual in 2011) *predicted 23

67 24 Average seasonal cycle of mean sea level

68 34 Extreme wave height statistics for a 20-year return time (From: aviso.oceanobs.com)

69 Oct Atmospheric Rivers 36 From American Geophysical Union, 2011 and Scripps (Jan photo)

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