Competitive energy landscape in Europe

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1 President of Energy Sector, South West Europe, Siemens Competitive energy landscape in Europe Brussels, siemens.com/answers

2 Agenda Europe s competitiveness depends on an affordable and reliable energy system Lessons from Germany s energy transition Our request: Utilize optimization potential in Europe Page 2

3 Europe needs competitive electricity pricing for economic growth Comparison of electricity prices, ct/kwh Industry Private households USA China India Poland Germany EU27 Turkey France Denmark Czech Great Britain Spain Italy Quelle: Eurostat; IEA. Page 3

4 Major differences among energy transitions in Europe Sweden Nuclear new build, hydro power, wind Denmark Wind on-/offshore, CHP Germany United Kingdom France Nuclear phase-out, PV, wind off-/onshore new build, grid expansion Nuclear new build, wind offshore, CCS, CO 2 floor price, shale gas Nuclear lifetime extension, wind offshore, moderate solar PV Italy Solar PV, reduction of power imports Spain Moderate renewables new build, support for domestic coal Poland Clean Coal, diversification of energy mix: wind offshore, shale gas Page 4

5 Agenda Europe s competitiveness depends on an affordable and reliable energy system Lessons from Germany s energy transition Our request: Utilize optimization potential in Europe Page 5

6 Renewable energy should cover 45 percent of Germany s power needs by 2030 Power generation in Germany in TWh Share of renewable energy in 2030: 45% Nuclear ~600 ~125 (21%) ~20 (3%) ~100 (16%) ~600 ~270 (45%) Renewable energy Wind Onshore 88 (15%) 35 (6%) Biomass, waste 76 (13%) Solar PV Oil ~90 (15%) ~5 (1%) ~20 (4%) ~120 (20%) Hydro Gas 67 (11%) Wind Offshore ~260 (44%) ~190 (32%) Coal in TWh Page 6

7 Driven by the energy transition, installed capacity will increase 35% to over 250 GW Development of power plant capacity in Germany in GW 253 Share of renewable energy in 2030: 54% +35% + 66GW Nuclear (37%) 11 (6%) 13 (7%) 28 (15%) 137 (54%) 12 (5%) Renewable energy Hydro Wind onshore Wind offshore 39 (15%) 17 (7%) 5 (2%) 76 (30%) Biomass, waste Photovoltaic 14 (8%) 44 (17%) Gas in GW 52 (28%) 21 (8%) 40 (16%) Oil Coal Page 7

8 Without storage, there is always the challenge of simultaneity of generation and consumption Germany, day with minimal peak load in summer 2012 (Sunday, August 26, 2012) GW Temporary surplus renewable energies Solar PV Wind onshore 0 4h 8h 12h 16h 20h Maximum load 2012 Daily load pattern Germany, August 26, 2012 Minimum load h Assumption: Maximum available capacity (GW) wind onshore + photovoltaic on windy and sunny days 1) 1) Assumption: Both wind onshore and solar PV have 80% of total installed capacity available Page 8

9 Despite increase in renewable energy, CO 2 target in Germany will not be reached Share of renewable energy in gross power generation Development of CO 2 emissions in power generation sector TWh Mt CO 2 ~600 ~600 ~600 ~ Current development 82% 76% 63% 51% Fossil generation Reference path 2) % % % % target 49% % target Renewable generation 1) Source: Umweltbundesamt; Siemens 1) Including hydropower 2) Assumption: National targets are proportionally assigned to power sector Page 9

10 Current situation in Germany s energy market: The energy economic triad is threatened Economic efficiency Electricity cost for industry: +19% above EU average Energy supply Sustainability 2012: increase to 317 Mt CO 2 (Target 2030: ~160 Mt CO 2 ) Supply security Currently over 1,000 grid interventions annually Page 10

11 Agenda Europe s competitiveness depends on an affordable and reliable energy system Lessons from Germany s energy transition Our request: Utilize optimization potential in Europe Page 11

12 Three requirements for a sustainable European power market 1. Support of technologies based on maturity and marketability Differentiated procedures based on maturity level (e.g. PV vs. Offshore Wind) Competitive environment for support of technologies (e.g. auctions) 2. Best-solution Model Technology and Regions Location-optimized use of renewable energies (wind and sun) Optimization of energy mix through a coal-to-gas shift 3. Clear and reliable targets for CO 2 reduction Definition of long-term and binding CO 2 targets for the EU Measures for preventing price fluctuations (e.g. price corridor) Fleet benchmarking (as already implemented for the automotive sector) Page 12

13 Support is differentiated based on level of technological maturity and marketability Technological maturity level (marketability) Support of through PV Efficiency Free & fair competition 1) Wind onshore Market penetration Auctions Wind offshore Electrolyzer (as storage) R&D, demonstration projects Programs, invitations to tender Time frame 1) If necessary with financial corrections, such as internalization of external effects through CO 2 prices Page 13

14 A reform of EU Emission Trading System would be desirable Preferred: Reform of EU ETS Definition of long-term, binding CO 2 targets for the EU (to 2030 or beyond) Possible simultaneous measures to prevent massive price fluctuations (e.g. through a minimum price or a price corridor) Alternative: CO 2 limits in sector Europe-wide limits for the CO 2 intensity of electricity from generators or providers Reduce limits to, for example, 300 g CO 2 /kwh in 2030 Raising CO 2 price for emissions above the limits Corresponding to a fleet benchmark (already successfully used in the automotive sector) Page 14

15 Thank you! siemens.com/answers

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