Quick-but-Clean? A Screening LCA Tool Using PERT Estimates to Incorporate Uncertainty

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1 Quick-but-Clean? A Screening LCA Tool Using PERT Estimates to Incorporate Uncertainty Debbie Kalish Program Manager, Ingersoll Rand Center for Energy Efficiency & Sustainability Christoph Koffler, PhD Technical Director PE International, Inc.

2 Ingersoll Rand Overview A $14 billion diversified industrial company Publicly-held; NYSE:IR More than 52,000 employees worldwide in 54 countries Operations in every major geographic region Strategic brands are #1 or #2 in their markets Products and services for commercial, industrial and residential markets

3 Advancing the Quality of Life We advance the quality of life by creating and sustaining safe, comfortable and efficient environments addressing the world s growing critical needs for Clean and comfortable air Secure homes and buildings Safe and fresh food Energy efficiency Sustainable business practices A World of Sustainable Progress and Enduring Results

4 Why Create a Screening LCA? Desire life cycle thinking in our New Product Development (NPD) process We need a tool that can estimate environmental burden and perform scenario analyses that is: Easy to use Cost effective Inputs can be gathered quickly Uses minimal resources Is robust Reproducible

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6 Model structure & results Christoph Koffler, PhD PE INTERNATIONAL

7 Quick-but-Clean? LCA model Product Number Weight Steel Non-ferrous Castings Polymers Chemicals Power storage Electronics Use phase Unalloyed Stainless Aluminum Copper Ferrous Non-ferrous Blow molding Operating materials Paints & Coatings Battery Battery LCD [in2] Energy Consumabl es Direct emissions Bar Misc Bar Fin Stock Iron Aluminum Compressio n molding Desiccants Lubricants Refrigerant Refrigerant Electrodeposition [ft2] Lead-acid PWB [in2] Diesel [gal] Lubricant CO Coil Sheet Extrusion Industrial tube Steel Brass Extrusion R134a Powder coating [ft2] Li-Ion Wiring Gasoline [gal] Refrigerant HC Plate Fin stock Technical tube Titanium Injection molding R404a Spray coating [ft2] Natural gas [mmbtu] NO Sheet Sheet Brass extrusion Zinc Rubber R410a Power [kwh] NO2 Slit coil Tube LPG [gal] NOx Structural PM unspec. Tube 7 material groups based on IR BOM taxonomy & available LCI data Sum of material weights is scaled to match product weight Use phase with energy & consumables consumption & direct emissions Calculation of GWP, AP, EP, ODP, and SFP (TRACI 2.0) PM10 PM2.5 Natural gas (2-stroke lean) CNG (4- stroke rich) Diesel (uncontroll ed industrial) AP42 CNG (4- stroke lean) Gasoline (uncontroll ed industrial) LPG

8 Quick-but-Clean? Castings / Non-ferrous / Aluminum

9 Quick-but-Clean? Model parameterization parameter best case most likely worst case recycled content 100% 50% 0% material loss during manufacturing 0.2% 6.5% 20% landfilled in EoL 2% 65% (1) 80% (2) (1) McMillan et al (2) EPA 2010 Total of 81 parameters / 243 individual parameter values for model calibration All parameter values reviewed with various Ingersoll Rand brands Data gaps filled with literature values

10 Quick-but-Clean? Calculation of results worst case worst case (16.67%) Impact category indicator result PERT estimate most likely (66.67%)? best case best case (16.67%)

11 Quick-but-Clean? The PERT distribution beta distribution first developed by the U.S. Navy min / max / most likely stronger tendency towards the most likely value than the triangular distribution f x = K x a α (b x) β PERT estimate = (best + 4 x most likely + worst) / 6

12 Quick-but-Clean? Cradle-to-grave GWP per unit of material class

13 Quick-but-Clean PE Global LCIA Expert Survey 2012 Establish weighting factors for 13 impact categories 660 LCA experts worldwide contacted via 245 online questionnaires completed (37%) APAC RER RNA RAF RLA

14 Quick-but-Clean? Cradle-to-grave single score per unit of material class

15 Quick-but-Clean? Model validation: no use phase burden Screening tool significantly overshoots check modeling choices & data Steelcraft Steel Door

16 Quick-but-Clean? Model validation: moderate use phase burden Screening tool much less detailed than benchmark underestimation IR Cordless Assembly Screwdriver Benchmark based on GaBi DB 2006 higher ODP values in electricity datasets

17 Quick-but-Clean? Model validation: high use phase burden Dominated by copper tubes tool assumes lower recycling rate Trane Chiller Use phase doesn t add any significant ODP emissions

18 Quick-but-Clean? Conclusions Quick, customized, intuitive, non-expert tool minimizes data collection & analysis costs but clean! PERT single score is a robust estimate use phase energy consumption offsets uncertainty from manufacturing display of upper & lower limits improves decision making

19 Quick-but-Clean! Outlook road test tool with various brands / product lines review and refine model parameterization establish it as core DfE tool in NPD process

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22 To be continued Deborah Kalish Ingersoll Rand Christoph Koffler PE INTERNATIONAL