No Data, No Performance

Transcription

1 No Data, No Performance On the benefits of data collection Wilfried van Sark IEA-PVPS-Task 13 parallel event 29 th EU PVSEC PV Performance Analysis and Module Reliability 23 September 2014, Amsterdam, the Netherlands Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University, the Netherlands

2 Content! Motivation! Work from IEA-PVPS-Task 13! Example: performance Italy! Example: data from web scraping! Specific yield determination in the Netherlands! Counting the Sun campaign! Conclusion 2/23

3 Motivation! PV is becoming a mainstream energy harvesting option 135 GWp power, end 2013! Optimal performance is required! But, do we know How well is PV serving the world? Without DATA we cannot address PERFORMANCE 3/23

4 Performance is going up (performance ratio) IEA PVPS Task 2 [Nordmann, 2007] PR from ~60% to >80% [Reich, 2012] 90% max?! 4/23

5 Motivation! Performance has been increasing in the past decades! Still, reasons for lower performance than expected (or promised) are difficult to detect, due to insufficient monitoring (in particular 1-5 kwp residential systems) 5/23

6 IEA-PVPS Task 13, subtask 2 To answer the question How well is PV serving the world? we need at least the following DATA:! Annual Yield (AC)! kwh/y/installed kwp as a function of location, climate zone! Annual average performance ratio PR! Use measured irradiance from local sensor or satellite data! Degradation rate! For plants in the field for a 5-year period (if possible) All data per system size bins (<1 kwp -- >10 MWp) Focus on annual data is what the customer needs to know 6/23

7 IEA-PVPS Task 13, Data template First attempts Template for each installation year and each region of interest (plus stdev) Data provided by: (name/organisation) Date: 13/4/2013 (dd/mm/yy) Installation year: 2008 (year) Location (country, region, province, zip/postal code area) any remarks: number of systems systemsize year <1 kwp 1-10 kwp kwp MWp 1-10 MWp >10 MWp mean annual AC yield (kwh/kwp) systemsize year <1 kwp 1-10 kwp kwp MWp 1-10 MWp >10 MWp mean annual Performance Ratio systemsize year <1 kwp 1-10 kwp kwp MWp 1-10 MWp >10 MWp how was PR determined: how was irradiation determined: (averaged daily or monthly PR) (irradiance sensor/satellite) mean annual irradiation (kwh/m2) systemsize year <1 kwp 1-10 kwp kwp MWp 1-10 MWp >10 MWp (Note: irradiation for the specific set of systems may differ, therefore also here a distinction is made for size)

8 Analysis Italy! Example size bin: kwp, installed in 2007, full year measurements for (5 years)! Courtesy: Francesca Tilli (GSE) 8/23

9 Italy All years averaged Larger systems somewhat better performing # systems North: 58 Central: 48 South: 48

10 Data mining! Market is introducing web tools for system owners to share monitor data, e.g., SolarLog 5AO.7.2! Objective is to analyze PV performance data obtained by web scraping techniques that collect and organize these data automatically in databases! What you see, is what you can extract 10/23

11 Approach! Scripts in Python have been developed that:! simulate human navigation through web sources (aka web scraping )! locate and save scattered information! organize that information in database! Daily AC and DC yields were thus obtained in conjunction with PV system details (orientation, tilt, size)! Countries analyzed: Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy! Only systems with >95% of data available per year 11/23

12 Results Country Samples System Size kwp Netherlands Germany Italy France Belgium GER ITA NL FRA BEL P M A 12/23

13 Results! Yearly variation between from 2-11% NL GER BEL ITA FRA 13/23

14 Results: North vs South FRA GER ITA South: +6-18% Annual yield (kwh/kwp) ±(stdev) Country Germany France Italy North 979± ± ±109 South 1081± ± ±125 North 1030± ± ±154 South 1099± ± ±166 North 1219± ± ±148 South 1352± ± ±203 14/23

15 Results: NL Geographical Variation Region PR Annual Yield kwh/kwp Irradiation kwh/kwp Coast 79.3+/-2% 895+/ Mainland 77.1+/-2% 833+/ Temperature, wind? 15/23

16 Results: Malfunction detection! Average Inverter losses 5.7% DC Jan-Oct 2013 AC DC AC Example: substring malfunction recognized and repaired 16/23

17 Determination of standard specific yield in the Netherlands! Statistics Netherlands (CBS) annually publishes t h e amount of installed capacity of photovoltaic systems: 722 MWp, end 2013 [1 GWp, mid september 2014]! PV generated electricity is calculated from the installed capacity using a full-load-hours model: the average capacity of the year is multiplied with 700 h, equivalent with specific annual yield: 700 kwh/kwp! Renewal of protocol is necessary: PV systems in the Netherlands now are producing much than 700 kwh/ kwp according to market stakeholders! DATA needed to prove that! Expert work group advice, open source data, installer data (representing ~2% of installed capacity) 17/23

18 Dutch performance data 7AV kwh/kwp kwh/kwp Advice: 875 kwh/kwp (25% increase!), starting from 2011! Presently, PV contributes 0.5% to electricity supply in the Netherlands (and increasing) 18/23

19 Counting the Sun! Dutch Solar Days 2014 (May 12 May 18)! Awareness campaign How well is my system doing! Social media, national television show Kassa! >5000 systems spread over the country! citizen science weekly yield average 33.4 kwh/kwp 19/23

20 Counting the Sun! Most systems are performing well! Average performance ratio 0.74±0.10 7AV.6.72! NO geographical variation in performance ratio! Some 10% of participants indicated some form of shade, performance ratio: 0.70±0.10. irradiation yield performance ratio 20/23

21 Performance Data: The holy grail?! Energy Yield-GIS or PR-GIS? We are nowhere near!

22 Conclusions! Obviously, without DATA one cannot say anything on PERFORMANCE! IEA PVPS Task 13, subtask 2! Collecting and analyzing data! From participants, Italy! Statistical analysis, web scraping! Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy! Dutch examples! Statistics Netherlands (CBS)! 25% more energy due to updated standard specific yield! Awareness campaign, citizen science 22/23

23 Thank you for listening! Q&A