Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa

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1 Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa CSIR Energy Centre WindAc Africa, 4-5 November 7 Cape Town, South Africa Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz Chief Engineer Jarrad G. Wright JWright@csir.co.za Joanne Calitz JRCalitz@csir.co.za Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz Tobias.Bischof-Niemz@enertrag.com Crescent Mushwana cmushwana@csir.co.za Robbie van Heerden RPvHeerden@csir.co.za

2 Outline Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

3 Outline Background.. Global wind South African context Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

4 Outline Background.. Global wind South African context Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

5 Globally, wind deployment increased significantly in early s and has since had strong deployment levels of 4-6 GW/yr Global annual new wind capacity (-6) Global annual new capacity [GW/yr.] Wind Total South African power system ( 45 GW) Sources: IEA; GWEC; CSIR analysis Most new wind capacity in 6 was in China (3 GW) with the next closest USA/Germany/India (8./5.4/3.6 GW) South Africa.4 GW

6 Wind capacity has grown at >% per year since with increasingly significant role for wind to meet energy requirements globally Global annual new wind capacity (-6) Operational capacity [GW] end of Wind 487 Total World Sources: GWEC; CSIR analysis 8 Total RSA power system (45 GW) USA Canada 9 Americas w/o USA/Canada Europe 3.9 Middle East and Africa 9 India China RSA installed wind:.5 GW (end 6) Wind market is dominated by China, Europe and USA with strong growth in India 4 3 Japan Australia 4 Rest of Asia Pacific

7 Outline Background.. Global wind South African context Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

8 Actual tariffs: Reductions in tariff for new, wind, solar PV and CSP with wind reduction of ~6% in just 4 years Results of South African Department of Energy REIPPPP Average tariff [USDc/kWh] (Apr-6-R) 3 CSP PV Wind Bid submission dates.3 BW (Nov ) 8. BW (Mar ) BW 3 / 3.5 (Aug 3) BW 4 + BW 4 additional (Aug 4) BW 4 expedited (Nov. 5) Notes: Assumed USD:ZAR = 4.7; For CSP Bid Window 3 and 3.5, the weighted average of base and peak tariff is indicated, assuming 5% annual capacity factor and 64%/36% base/peak tariff utilisation ratio; BW = Bid Window; Sources: Department of Energy s publications on results of first four bidding windows 4Nov3.pdf; StatsSA on CPI; CSIR analysis

9 Actual tariffs: Reductions in tariff for new, wind, solar PV and CSP with wind reduction of ~6% in just 4 years Results of South African Department of Energy REIPPPP Average tariff [USDc/kWh] (Apr-6-R) % -83% -45%.4. CSP PV Wind Bid submission dates.3 BW (Nov ) 8. BW (Mar ) BW 3 / 3.5 (Aug 3) BW 4 + BW 4 additional (Aug 4) BW 4 expedited (Nov. 5) Notes: Assumed USD:ZAR = 4.7; For CSP Bid Window 3 and 3.5, the weighted average of base and peak tariff is indicated, assuming 5% annual capacity factor and 64%/36% base/peak tariff utilisation ratio; BW = Bid Window; Sources: Department of Energy s publications on results of first four bidding windows 4Nov3.pdf; StatsSA on CPI; CSIR analysis

10 From November 3 to Jun 7, 568 MW of wind, 474 MW of large-scale solar PV and MW of CSP became operational in RSA Capacity operational in MW (end of year) Supply Sources Solar PV Wind CSP H 8 9 Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskom s Sere wind farm ( MW). 7 H = Jan - Jun 7 Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office

11 Wind supplied 3.7 TWh (.6%) of South Africa s system load in 6 (a growing share from just.4% in 4 and.% in 5) Evolution of wind energy contribution to South African electricity mix (4-6) Annual electricity [TWh] 49.. (.4%) (.%) (.6%) MW 94 MW 46 MW Residual Load Wind System Load (domestic and export load) Residual Load Wind System Load (domestic and export load) Residual Load Wind System Load (domestic and export load) Sources: Eskom; CSIR Energy Centre analysis

12 Outline Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

13 The capacity expansion planning exercise fills the supply gap in the least-cost manner, subject to constraints imposed Energy supplied to the South African electricity system from existing plants (6-5) Whether a high demand forecast is expected in South Africa or a low demand forecast we need electricity infrastructure investment Electricity [TWh/yr] 5 Electricity [TWh/yr] Planned decommissioning of Eskom s coal fleet Planned decommissioning of Eskom s coal fleet Supply gap CSP Other Gas (CCGT) Nuclear Demand Solar PV Wind Peaking Hydro+PS Coal Note: Energy from existing generators is shown representatively; All power plants considered for existing fleet that are either Existing in 6, Under construction, or Procured (preferred bidder) Sources: DoE (IRP 6); Eskom MTSAO 6-; StatsSA; World Bank; CSIR analysis

14 Approach currently optimises the generation component of total system cost (the dominant component) and is technology agnostic Costs included in Gx optimisation model: CAPEX (plant level) FOM VOM Fuel Costs excluded in Gx optimisation model: Externalities e.g. CO emissions costs Decommissioning costs Waste management and/or rehabilitation Major mid-life overhaul Shallow grid connection costs for non renewables (included for RE) Generation (Gx) High-level costing applied to PLEXOS outcomes Transmission network (Tx) Not considered Distribution network (Dx) Qualitatively discussed (quantified for system inertia) System services 3 Not considered Other (metering, billing, customer services, overheads) Total system cost FOM = Fixed Operations and Maintenence costs; VOM = Variable Operations and Maintenence costs; 3 Typically referred to as Ancillary Services includes services to ensure frequency stability, transient stability, provide reactive power/voltage control, ensure black start capability and system operator costs. [br/yr]

15 Approach currently optimises the generation component of total system cost (the dominant component) and is technology agnostic Optimised in PLEXOS model [br/yr] Costs included in Gx optimisation model: CAPEX (plant level) FOM VOM Fuel Costs excluded in Gx optimisation model: Externalities e.g. CO emissions costs Decommissioning costs Waste management and/or rehabilitation Major mid-life overhaul Shallow grid connection costs for non renewables (included for RE) Generation (Gx) High-level costing applied to PLEXOS outcomes Transmission network (Tx) Not considered Distribution network (Dx) Qualitatively discussed (quantified for system inertia) System services 3 Not considered Other (metering, billing, customer services, overheads) Total system cost FOM = Fixed Operations and Maintenence costs; VOM = Variable Operations and Maintenence costs; 3 Typically referred to as Ancillary Services includes services to ensure frequency stability, transient stability, provide reactive power/voltage control, ensure black start capability and system operator costs.

16 Approach currently optimises the generation component of total system cost (the dominant component) and is technology agnostic Optimised in PLEXOS model Not optimised in PLEXOS modelling framework (CSIR assumption for all scenarios =.3 R/kWh) [br/yr] Costs included in Gx optimisation model: CAPEX (plant level) FOM VOM Fuel Costs excluded in Gx optimisation model: Externalities e.g. CO emissions costs Decommissioning costs Waste management and/or rehabilitation Major mid-life overhaul Shallow grid connection costs for non renewables (included for RE) Generation (Gx) High-level costing applied to PLEXOS outcomes Transmission network (Tx) Not considered Distribution network (Dx) Qualitatively discussed (quantified for system inertia) System services 3 Not considered Other (metering, billing, customer services, overheads) Total system cost FOM = Fixed Operations and Maintenence costs; VOM = Variable Operations and Maintenence costs; 3 Typically referred to as Ancillary Services includes services to ensure frequency stability, transient stability, provide reactive power/voltage control, ensure black start capability and system operator costs.

17 Outline Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

18 A range of scenarios investigated including business-as-usual, leastcost and decarbonised with new outcomes the focus Part of previous research (See link below if interested) New research outcomes See here (Comments on Draft IRP 6)

19 Outline 3 4 Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Key input assumptions Outcomes and discussion 5 6 Focus on wind Conclusions

20 Outline 3 4 Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Key input assumptions Outcomes and discussion 5 6 Focus on wind Conclusions

21 PLEASE REFER TO PAPER FOR FULL SET OF TECHNOLOGY COST INPUT ASSUMPTIONS

22 Technology cost characteristics fully modelled taken from Draft IRP 6 unless otherwise specified Lifetime cost per energy unit (LCOE) in R/kWh (Apr-6-R) Same assumptions used as per IRP Fixed (Capital, O&M) Variable (Fuel) Solar PV Wind Baseload Coal (PF) Nuclear Gas (CCGT) Mid-merit Coal Gas (OCGT) Diesel (OCGT) Assumed capacity factor 8% 9% 5% 5% % % CO in kg/mwh Lifetime cost per energy unit is only presented for brevity. The model inherently includes the specific cost structures of each technology i.e. capex, Fixed O&M, variable O&M, fuel costs etc. Changing full-load hours for new-build options drastically changes the fixed cost components per kwh (lower full-load hours higher capital costs and fixed O&M costs per kwh); Assumptions: Average efficiency for CCGT = 55%, OCGT = 35%; nuclear = 33%; IRP costs from Jan- escalated to May-6 with CPI; assumed EPC CAPEX inflated by % to convert EPC/LCOE into tariff; Sources: IRP 3 Update; Doe IPP Office; StatsSA for CPI; Eskom financial reports for coal/diesel fuel cost; EE Publishers for Medupi/Kusile; Rosatom for nuclear capex; CSIR analysis

23 South African generation capacity decommissioning schedule as planned for in the Draft IRP 6 Installed capacity [GW] Wind CSP Solar PV Hydro+PS Gas Peaking Biomass/-gas Nuclear Coal Sources: Draft IRP 6

24 South African coal generation capacity decommissioning schedule - as planned for in the Draft IRP 6 Installed capacity [GW] Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Kusile Lethabo MajubaDry MajubaWet Matimba Matla Medupi Tutuka Sources: CSIR analysis

25 South African coal generation capacity decommissioning schedule - as planned for in the Draft IRP 6 Installed capacity [GW] : -9.6 GW Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Kusile Lethabo MajubaDry MajubaWet Matimba Matla Medupi Tutuka Sources: CSIR analysis

26 South African coal generation capacity decommissioning schedule - as planned for in the Draft IRP 6 Installed capacity [GW] : -9.6 GW 3-4: -4.8 GW Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Kusile Lethabo MajubaDry MajubaWet Matimba Matla Medupi Tutuka Sources: CSIR analysis

27 South African coal generation capacity decommissioning schedule - as planned for in the Draft IRP 6 Installed capacity [GW] : -9.6 GW 3-4: -4.8 GW 4-5: -7. GW Arnot Camden Duvha Grootvlei Hendrina Kendal Komati Kriel Kusile Lethabo MajubaDry MajubaWet Matimba Matla Medupi Tutuka Sources: CSIR analysis

28 Two demand forecasts considered (high and low) from Draft IRP 6 Electrical energy demand [TWh] Historical High (IRP 6 Base Case) IRP Sources: DoE; EIUG; CSIR analysis Note: No spatial context for demand forecast (aggregated to national level). EIUG

29 Two demand forecasts considered (high and low) from Draft IRP 6 Electrical energy demand [TWh] x 5 demand.4x low-demand (5) x 5 demand.7x high-demand (5) Historical High (IRP 6 Base Case) IRP Sources: DoE; EIUG; CSIR analysis Note: No spatial context for demand forecast (aggregated to national level). EIUG

30 Electricity sector CO emissions trajectories constrain the model over time to 5 from Draft IRP 6 CO emissions [Mt/yr] RSA PPD Upper RSA PPD Lower 5 Moderate Decline PPD = Peak Plateau Decline Sources: DoE (IRP -3 Update); StatsSA; CSIR analysis

31 Solar PV: Future cost assumptions for solar PV aligned with latest projections from BNEF ( 7% reduction by 4) Tariff in R/kWh (Apr-6-Rand) Assumptions: IRP - high Assumptions: IRP - low Assumptions: IRP 6 - high Assumptions: IRP 6 - low Assumptions for this study Actuals: REIPPPP (BW-4Exp) BW BW 4 (Expedited) Year Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW = Nov ; BW = Mar ; BW 3 = Aug 3; BW 4 = Aug 4; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 5 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; Draft IRP 6; BNEF; IRENA; CSIR analysis

32 Wind: Future cost assumptions for solar PV aligned with latest projections from BNEF ( 4% reduction by 4) Tariff in R/kWh (Apr-6-Rand) Assumptions: IRP Assumptions: IRP 6 - high Assumptions: IRP 6 - low Assumptions for this study Actuals: REIPPPP (BW-4Exp) BW BW 4 (Expedited) Year Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW = Nov ; BW = Mar ; BW 3 = Aug 3; BW 4 = Aug 4; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 5 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP ; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis

33 Previous CSIR cost input assumptions for CSP (same cost decline as per IRP ) Tariff in R/kWh (Apr-6-Rand) For bid window 3, 3.5 and 4 Exp, weighted average tariff of base and peak tariff calculated on the assumption of 64%/36% base/peak tariff utilisation ratio Assumptions: IRP - high Assumptions: IRP - low Assumptions: IRP6 - high Assumptions: IRP6 - low Assumptions for this study Actuals: REIPPPP (BW-4Exp) BW BW 4 (Expedited) Year Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW = Nov ; BW = Mar ; BW 3 = Aug 3; BW 4 = Aug 4; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 5 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP ; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis

34 Stationary storage (Li-Ion): Assumed $/kwh (3), 5 $/kwh (4), $/kwh (5) from BNEF, IRENA Overnight capital cost [R/kWh)] (Apr-6-Rand) Assumptions: IRP6 (Li-Ion hr) Assumptions for this study (Li-Ion hr) Assumptions: IRP6 (Li-Ion 3hr) Assumptions for this study (Li-Ion 3hr) Assumptions: IRP6 (CAES) Assumptions for this study (CAES) Year Sources: StatsSA for CPI; Draft IRP 6; BNEF, IRENA; CSIR

35 Demand shaping can provide 4 GW/3 GW (demand increase/decrease) with ~7 GWh/d of dispatchable energy by 5 Property Unit Population [mln] Number of HHs [mln] Residents per HH [ppl/hh] HHs with EWH [%] HHs with EWH [mln] Demand shaping adoption [%] - 5 Demand shaping [TWh/a] Demand shaping [GWh/d] Demand shaping (demand increase) [MW] Demand shaping (demand decrease) [MW] Sources: CSIR estimates; StatsSA; AMPS survey; Stastista; Eskom;

36 Electric vehicle demand shaping can provide ~96 GW/4. GW (demand increase/decrease) with ~ GWh/d daily dispatchable energy 5 Sources: CSIR estimates; StatsSA; enatis

37 Outline 3 4 Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Key input assumptions Outcomes and discussion 5 6 Focus on wind Conclusions

38 LC (high-demand) with updated technology cost assumptions flexible capacity with more solar PV/wind and. storage is deployed Scenario: Least-cost - new outcomes (High Demand) Installed Capacity Energy Produced System cost and average tariff [GW] [TWh/yr] (%) (%) 5 9 (34%) 5 (45%) 9 (%) 8 (%) [busd/yr] [USDc/kWh] DR Li-Ion Pumped storage Biomass/-gas Solar PV CSP Tx/Dx/Other Wind Hydro Peaking Gas Nuclear Coal CO Emissions [Mt/yr] Water Usage [bl/yr] Tariff w/o CO Tariff w CO Includes an assumed USDc/kWh (.3 R/kWh) for transmission, distribution and customer services

39 LC (low-demand) with updated technology cost assumptions similar to high demand just at a smaller scale Scenario: Least-cost - new outcomes (Low Demand) Installed Capacity Energy Produced System cost and average tariff 35 [GW] [TWh/yr] 6 [busd/yr] 6 [USDc/kWh] DR Li-Ion Pumped storage Biomass/-gas Solar PV CSP Tx/Dx/Other 7 4 Wind Hydro Peaking Gas Nuclear Coal (33%) 7 (4%) 9 9 (%) (%) 58 (4%) (%) CO Emissions [Mt/yr] Water Usage [bl/yr] Tariff w/o CO Tariff w CO Includes an assumed USDc/kWh (.3 R/kWh) for transmission, distribution and customer services

40 CO emissions trajectory is never binding and water use declines as coal fleet decommissions for high and low demand Scenario: Least-cost (new outcomes) CO emissions Water usage Electricity sector CO emissions [Mt/yr] Electricity sector Water usage [bl/yr] High demand Low demand High demand 5 Low demand PPD (Moderate) Year Year

41 Outline Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

42 LC optimal to aim for 5-% wind ( 5-5~GW) by 3, 35-4% ( 4-6 GW) by 4 and 45-5% ( 6-85 GW) by 5 Previous outcomes (share of energy mix) New outcomes (share of energy mix) LC-Hi LC-Lo LC-Hi LC-Lo 4 % % 88% 344 3% 6% 6% 48 4% 7% 5 49% 8% 4 % % 88% 37 8% 4% 67% 35 36% 8% 38 47% 7% Lower technology costs: Solar PV Wind Li-Ion storage 4 % % 88% 346 % 8% 6% % 34% 53 48% 38% 4 % % 88% 39 6% 5% 69% % 33% % 38% 3% % 37% 5% 7% 4% 3% 8% Wind Other RE Other Note: For reference, total energy supplied is shown for each year; Other RE includes domestic and imported renewable energy.

43 Combining all of these outcomes (previous and new) a growing wind market is expected albeit at varying scales of deployment Gross new-build capacity (cumulative) [GW] 4 5. GW/yr 5.8 GW/yr.6 GW/yr GW/yr.4 GW/yr 4 REIPPPP BW BW 4.7 GW/yr In least-cost planning outcomes:.4-. GW/a (-3).7-5. GW/a (3-4) GW/a (4-5)

44 Outline Background Approach Scenarios New research outcomes Focus on wind Conclusions

45 Conclusions Deployment of wind in South Africa is primarily as a result of: Favourable technology costs; A world-class wind resource; and Large geographical land area. Any new-build capacity in South Africa should include wind as part of the energy mix combined with solar PV and flexible supply/demand options Conservatively (previous outcomes), LC planning outcomes result in wind installed capacity of: 5-5~GW (3); 4-6 GW (4); and 6-85 GW (5). With plausible reductions in costs of wind, installed wind capacity (new outcomes): Similar by 3, 5-5 GW; Much higher to 4, 55-7 GW; and 7- GW by 5. Consistent and growing build-out of wind capacity with LC deployment of:.4-. GW/a (-3);.7-5. GW/a (3-4); and GW/a (4-5). least-cost; business-as-usual

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