Current Update on Climate Science
|
|
- Nicholas Terry
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Current Update on Climate Science Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA rd Annual CAFE Electric Aircraft Symposium Hiller Aviation Museum, San Carlos, California April 24 th,
2 Truth in advertising: Who do I work for? PCMDI: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Service: Coordinate international climate modeling simulations (standard benchmark experiments) Enable broader science community to analyze and evaluate models Goal: Quantify how well models simulate present-day climate and evaluate uncertainty in projections of future climate change PCMDI was established in 1989 Has been at Lawrence Livermore National Lab since then 2
3 Structure of talk Climate change 101 A brief review of climate fingerprinting Update on recent changes in greenhouse gases Update on recent changes in climate (and projections of future changes) Update on fingerprint research Conclusions 3
4 Climate Change 101: Natural mechanisms influence climate Natural mechanisms Changes in the Sun Changes in the amount of volcanic dust in the atmosphere Internal variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system 4
5 Climate Change 101: Human factors also influence climate Non-natural mechanisms Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases Changes in aerosol particles from burning fossil fuels and biomass Changes in the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth s surface Smoke from fires in Guatemala and Mexico (May 14, 1998) 5
6 Average surface temperature change ( C) Climate Change 101: Computer models can perform the control experiment that we can t do in the real world Meehl et al., Journal of Climate (2004) 6
7 Climate Change 101: We routinely test how well current climate models simulate: Today s annual average climate The daily cycle The seasonal cycle The response to massive volcanic eruptions Ocean uptake of products of atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons The climate changes of the past 30 to 150 years Climates of the deep past (e.g., the last Ice Age) Weather Modes of natural climate variability (like El Niño) 7
8 Structure of talk Climate change 101 A brief review of climate fingerprinting Update on recent changes in greenhouse gases Update on recent changes in climate (and projections of future changes) Update on fingerprint research Conclusions 8
9 What is climate fingerprinting? Strategy: Search for a computer model-predicted pattern of climate change (the fingerprint ) in observed climate records Assumption: Each factor that influences climate has a unique signature in climate records Method: Standard signal processing techniques Advantage: Fingerprinting allows researchers to make rigorous tests of competing hypotheses regarding the causes of recent climate change 9
10 Pressure (hpa) Height above Earth s surface (kilometers) Understanding different fingerprints: The case of the Sun N 60N 30N Eq 30S 60S 90S N N N Eq S S S Temperature change (degrees Celsius per century)
11 Pressure (hpa) Height (km) Pressure (hpa) Height (km) Pressure (hpa) Height (km) Different factors that influence climate have different fingerprints 1. Solar 3. Well-mixed greenhouse gases N 60N 30N Eq 30S 60S 90S N 60N 30N Eq 30S 60S 90S Sulfate aerosol particles Santer et al., CCSP Report (2006) N 60N 30N N 60N 30N N 60N 30N Eq 30S 60S 90S Eq 30S 60S 90S Eq 30S 60S 90S C/century Volcanoes 4. Ozone 11
12 Pressure (hpa) Height (km) Pressure (hpa) Height (km) Fingerprinting with temperature changes in Earth s atmosphere Model Changes: CO 2 + Sulfate Aerosols + Stratospheric Ozone N 45N 30N 15N 0 15S 30S 45S 60S 2 50 Observed Changes N 45N 30N 15N 0 15S 30S 45S 60S 2 Santer et al., Nature (1996) Temperature changes in o C 12
13 Fingerprint research has made important contributions to the conclusions of IPCC assessments The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations 13
14 We have now identified human fingerprints in TEMPERATURE FIELDS 1. Global-scale surface temperatures 2. Regional-scale surface temperatures 3. Vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature 4. Global ocean heat content 5. MSU stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures 6. The height of the tropopause 7. Vertical structure of upper-ocean temperatures 8. SSTs in hurricane formation regions 9. Arctic and Antarctic temperatures 14
15 We ve moved beyond temperature only fingerprint detection studies ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, SEA-ICE, AND THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE 1. Sea-level pressure 2. Continental-scale runoff 3. Atmospheric water vapor over oceans 4. Surface specific humidity 5. Zonal-mean precipitation 6. Hydrologically-relevant climate variables in the western U.S. 7. Arctic sea-ice extent 15
16 Structure of talk Climate change 101 A brief review of climate fingerprinting Update on recent changes in greenhouse gases Update on recent changes in climate (and projections of future changes) Update on fingerprint research Conclusions 16
17 Changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases over the past 30+ years 17
18 Recent changes in atmospheric CO 2 and CH 4 concentrations Researchers measured an additional 16.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide and 12.2 million tons of methane in the atmosphere at the end of December 2008 This increase occurred despite the global economic downturn, with its decrease in a wide range of activities that depend on fossil fuel use 18
19 5 Recent emissions Emissions of greenhouse gases are growing more 0 rapidly than anticipated CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B Raupach et al., PNAS (2007)
20 Will there be abrupt changes in atmospheric concentrations of methane? CCSP Report 3.4, (December 2008) It is possible that large amounts of methane present in solid form (methane hydrate) in ocean sediments may become unstable as the planet continues to warm Warming can destabilize methane hydrate, forming free gas that may be ultimately released to the atmosphere A catastrophic release of methane to the atmosphere in the next century appears very unlikely It is very likely, however, that human-caused climate change will accelerate the pace of persistent emissions of methane from both hydrate sources and thawing out of organic matter in permafrost 20
21 Structure of talk Climate change 101 A brief review of climate fingerprinting Update on recent changes in greenhouse gases Update on recent changes in climate (and projections of future changes) Update on fingerprint research Conclusions 21
22 Latest information on global mean temperature changes 22
23 Latest information on global mean temperature changes 23
24 Has the Earth stopped warming? A climate simulation in a world facing business as usual increases in greenhouse gases still shows lots of periods with cool fluctuations 24
25 Earth s temperature has increased over the last 30 years, despite no overall increase in the Sun s energy output U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Unified Synthesis Product (2009) 25
26 Estimates of historical and future sea-level rise from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Range for A1B: 0.21 to 0.48 m Total 20 th century rise: 0.17 meters FAQ 5.1, Figure 1 26
27 Contributions of ice-sheet dynamics to sea-level rise are highly uncertain CCSP Report 3.4, (December 2008) An abrupt change in sea level from the melting of land ice is possible Predictions are highly uncertain Recent rapid changes at the edges of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets show acceleration of flow and thinning Glacier acceleration may be due to such processes as: Enhanced surface meltwater production penetrating to the glacier bed, lubricating glacier flow Ice shelf removal Glacier ungrounding Interaction of warm ocean waters with the periphery of large ice sheets 27
28 The impacts of ice sheet dynamics on sea-level rise are highly uncertain U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Unified Synthesis Product (2009) 28
29 Latest information on Arctic sea ice changes Monthly March ice extent for 1979 to 2009 shows a decline of 2.7% per decade Arctic sea ice is becoming thinner than average 29
30 Increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations lead to increasing acidification of the ocean Dissolved CO 2 forms a weak acid European Station for Time Series in the Ocean (29 N, 15 W) ph decreases as dissolved CO 2 increases Direct observations of ph over last two decades show ph decreases of about 0.02 units per decade Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface ph of 0.14 to 0.35 units over the 21 st century Bad news for marine organisms which use aragonite and calcite to build shells Hawaii Ocean Time Series (23 N, 158 W) Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Study (32 N, 64 W) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) Figure
31 Will there be an abrupt change in the Atlantic Conveyor Belt circulation? CCSP Report 3.4, (December 2008) The Atlantic Conveyor Belt circulation transports a substantial amount of heat from the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere toward the North Atlantic Changes in this ocean circulation could have a profound impact on many aspects of the global climate system As greenhouse gas levels increase, it is very likely that the strength of the Atlantic Conveyor Belt will decrease by approximately 25-30% over the course of the 21 st century It is very unlikely that this circulation will undergo a collapse or an abrupt transition to a weakened state 31
32 Structure of talk Climate change 101 A brief review of climate fingerprinting Update on recent changes in greenhouse gases Update on recent changes in climate (and projections of future changes) Update on fingerprint research Conclusions 32
33 Key scientific issues in fingerprint research (I) 1. Most fingerprint work has focused on global-scale changes in individual, primary climate variables Can we identify human effects on climate at continental to regional scales? Can we identify human fingerprints in variables of direct relevance to climatechange impacts? (e.g., timing of stream flow, snowpack depth) Can we attribute shifts in the distributions of plant and animal species to human influences? 33
34 Key scientific issues in fingerprint research (II) 2. We now live in a multi-model world, yet most fingerprint studies to date have been performed with individual models Is it a model democracy ( One model, one vote? ) Or should we pay more attention to models that do a better job in capturing aspects of present-day climate that we care about? 34
35 Key scientific issues in fingerprint research (II) 2. We now live in a multi-model world, yet most fingerprint studies to date have been performed with individual models Is it a model democracy ( One model, one vote? ) Or should we pay more attention to models that do a better job in capturing aspects of present-day climate that we care about? 35
36 Key scientific issues in fingerprint research (III) 3. We cannot confidently attribute any specific extreme event to humaninduced climate change But can we make informed scientific statements about the influence of human activities on the likelihood of extreme events? 36
37 Estimated likelihood Evaluation Fractional Attributable Risk Risk of European heat wave exceeding 1.6 C threshold with and without human influence (Stott, Stone, and Allen, Nature, 2004) Average simulation omitting human influence Average model simulation with combined human and natural effects Number of occurrences per 1,000 years 37
38 Estimated likelihood Evaluating Fractional Attributable Risk Risk of European heat wave exceeding 1.6 C threshold with and without human influence (Stott, Stone, and Allen, Nature, 2004) Average simulation omitting human influence 0.4 Average model simulation with combined human and natural effects Number of occurrences per 1,000 years Can we do this type of analysis with other extreme events? 38
39 Conclusions We have identified human fingerprints in a number of different aspects of the climate system We have moved beyond temperature only detection and attribution Criticisms leveled at IPCC Second Assessment Report ( you are only looking at surface temperature changes ) are no longer valid The climate system is telling us a physically- and internally-consistent story The story s message: Natural causes alone cannot explain the observed changes Many scientists at dozens of universities and research institutions around the world have helped to tell this story 39
40 Addendum: EPA proposes regulating greenhouse gases (Washington Post, April 17, 2009) The Environmental Protection Agency issued a proposal today finding greenhouse gas emissions pose a danger to the public's health and welfare, a determination that could trigger a series of sweeping regulations affecting everything from vehicles to coal-fired power plants. In a statement issued at noon, EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson said, This finding confirms that greenhouse gas pollution is a serious problem now and for future generations. She added, This pollution problem has a solution one that will create millions of green jobs and end our country s dependence on foreign oil. The finding identifies six gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride as contributing to global warming. The move, coming almost exactly two years after the Supreme Court ordered the agency to examine whether emissions linked to climate change should be curbed under the Clean Air Act, marks a major shift in the federal government s approach to global warming. 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
How and What Do We Know About Causation: Attribution and Fingerprinting
How and What Do We Know About Causation: Attribution and Fingerprinting Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550 Short
More informationCauses of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate. Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
Causes of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Overview 1.The causes of observed climate change 2.Global and regional climate projections
More informationThe IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change
The IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change Martin Manning Director, IPCC Working Group I Support Unit 1. Observed climate change 2. Drivers of climate change 3. Attribution of cause
More informationATM S 211 Final Examination June 4, 2007
ATM S 211 Final Examination June 4, 2007 Name This examination consists of a total of 100 points. In each of the first two sections, you have a choice of which questions to answer. Please note that you
More informationState of the planetary life support system
State of the planetary life support system "We're simply talking about the very life support system of this planet Joachim Hans Schellnhuber, Director of the Potsdam Climate Impacts Institute and Climate
More informationENSC425/625 Climate Change and Global Warming
ENSC425/625 Climate Change and Global Warming 1 Emission scenarios of greenhouse gases Projections of climate change Regional climate change (North America) Observed Changes and their Uncertainty 2 Figure
More information2. Climate Change: Projections of Climate Change: 2100 and beyond
Global Warming: Science, Projections and Uncertainties Global Warming: Science, Projections and Uncertainties An overview of the basic science An overview of the basic science 1. A Brief History of Global
More informationLESSON 9: CONCEPTUALIZING MODULE II Factors Influencing Temperature
LESSON 9: CONCEPTUALIZING MODULE II Factors Influencing Temperature PURPOSE/QUESTION To understand the need to compare data sets over different parameters thus increasing the strength for students climate
More informationComments on Human and Natural Forcings. Climate changes (1900 to 2000) due to human activity. Climate Variability and Climate Change
Comments on Human and Natural Forcings Human input of GH gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, CFCs ) has warmed the planet: net RF = +2.9 W/m 2 The largest single warming factor is increased
More informationScientific Foundation of Climate Change. Human Responsibility for Climate Change
Scientific Foundation of Climate Change EOH 468 CSU Northridge Spring 2010 Peter Bellin, CIH, Ph.D. 1 Human Responsibility for Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is very likely that emissions of heat-trapping
More informationChapter outline. introduction. Reference. Chapter 6: Climate Change Projections EST 5103 Climate Change Science
Chapter 6: Climate Change Projections EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of Science & Technology Chapter outline Future Forcing and Scenarios,
More informationConclusions of the IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report, AR4, SREX and SRREN
Conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report, AR4, SREX and SRREN R. K. Pachauri 11 November 2013 Warsaw, Poland Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1 Problems cannot
More informationGLOBAL WARMING COMPUTER LAB
GLOBAL WARMING COMPUTER LAB A COMPUTER SIMULATION PROGRAM ON TEMPERATURE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISING After performing this computer simulation lab you will be able to: 1) understand the greenhouse effect
More informationDraft Environmental Impact Statement
The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Year 2021 2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Draft Environmental Impact Statement July 2018 Docket No. NHTSA-2017-0069 Greenhouse Gas
More informationAnalysis. Document of WARMING 5TH IPCC REPORT. THE CERTAINTY OF AN INHERITANCE, GLOBAL WARMING. Document of Analysis 51/2013 1
Document of Analysis 51/2013 30 September 2013 Enter the WEB Sign up for our NEWSLETTER 5TH IPCC REPORT. THE CERTAINTY OF AN INHERITANCE, GLOBAL WARMING This document has been translated by a Translation
More informationChapter 19 Global Change. Wednesday, April 18, 18
Chapter 19 Global Change Module 62 Global Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect After reading this module you should be able to distinguish among global change, global climate change, and global warming.
More informationIn t r o d u c t i o n
11. Predictions for the Future of the Caribbean Simon Donner In t r o d u c t i o n The 2005 coral bleaching event focused attention on the threat that continued ocean warming poses to Caribbean coral
More informationGlobal Climate Change: Recent Developments. Pål Prestrud, Director CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo
Global Climate Change: Recent Developments Pål Prestrud, Director CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo 1 Changes in global atmospheric temperature during the last
More informationPhysics 100 Lecture 17. The Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming April 2, 2018
1 Physics 100 Lecture 17 The Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming April 2, 2018 2 Class Quiz Ch. 7: Suppose your car burned bituminous coal instead of gasoline. How much coal would provide the same energy
More informationRadiative forcing of climate change
Radiative forcing of climate change Joanna D. Haigh Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London Radiative forcing concept, definition and applications On a global and annual average, and
More informationAtmosphere, the Water Cycle and Climate Change
Atmosphere, the Water Cycle and Climate Change OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 16 April 2013 (Based on previous lectures by Barry Huebert) 2013 F.J. Sansone 1. The water cycle Outline 2. Climate and climate-change
More informationFACTS ABOUT GL BAL WARMING. gogreen. Shop visit An Ekotribe Initiative
FACTS ABOUT GL BAL WARMING Shop Online @ www.thegreenecostore.com Definition The earth is a natural greenhouse and is kept warm by water vapors, carbon dioxide (CO2), and other gases in the atmosphere,
More informationIPCC 5 th Assessment Report
The WGI Contribution to the IPCC 5 th Assessment Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI Technical Support Unit Team Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Key SPM Messages 19 Headlines
More informationFOLLOW: Green House on Twitter
Jan 31, 2012 Recommend 773 208 By Wendy Koch, USA TODAY Updated 1d 13h ago CAPTION By William Fernando Martinez, AP A new NASA study tries to lay to rest the skepticism about climate change, especially
More informationGREENHOUSE GASES 3/14/2016. Water Vapor, CO 2, CFCs, Methane and NO x all absorb radiation Water vapor and CO 2 are the primary greenhouse gases
GREENHOUSE EFFECT The earth is like a greenhouse The atmosphere acts like the glass which lets the sun s rays pass through. The earth absorbs this as heat energy and keeps it in, only letting a little
More informationGreenhouse Effect & Climate Change
Greenhouse Effect & Climate Change Greenhouse Effect Light energy from the sun (solar radiation) is either reflected or absorbed by the Earth. Greenhouse Effect When it is absorbed by the Earth (or something
More informationFigure 1 CO2 Levels vs. Volcanic Activity
Figure 1 CO2 Levels vs. Volcanic Activity Note: Stratospheric Optical Thickness is the measure of aerosols (e.g., urban haze, smoke particles, desert dust, sea salt) distributed within a column of air
More informationClimate Change. The Scale & Urgency of the Challenge
Climate Change The Scale & Urgency of the Challenge Brian Hoskins UK Climate Change Committee Director, Grantham Institute for Climate Change Imperial College, UK Royal Society Research Professor, University
More informationChapter 19 Global Change
Chapter 19 Global Change Global Change change - any chemical, biological or physical property change of the planet. Examples include cold temperatures causing ice ages. Global change - changes in the climate
More informationSteve Wohlmuth Central Kings Rural High School Canads
Climate Change What Are Greenhouse Gases? Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result from human activities (anthropogenic gases). Naturally occurring greenhouse gases
More informationChapter 19 Global Change
Chapter 19 Global Change Global Change Global change- any chemical, biological or physical property change of the planet. Examples include cold temperatures causing ice ages. Global climate change-changes
More informationClimate Change. (Adopted by AMS Council on 1 February 2007) Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 88
Climate Change An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 1 February 2007) Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 88 The following is an Information Statement intended to
More informationTOPIC #16 THE IPCC FINDINGS
TOPIC #16 THE IPCC FINDINGS About the IPCC, the Projections, & Impacts pp 87-92 Eden by Gregory Kitterle "A world civilization able to envision God and the afterlife, to embark on the colonization of space,
More informationLECTURE #24: Mega Disasters Climate Change
GEOL 0820 Ramsey Natural Disasters Spring, 2018 LECTURE #24: Mega Disasters Climate Change Date: 17 April 2018 I. Early Earth was more similar to present-day Venus o very high amounts of carbon dioxide
More informationENVIS- IITM NEWSLETTER The Air Quality: A Global Challenge
ENVIS- IITM NEWSLETTER The Air Quality: A Global Challenge GLOBAL WARMING Editorial Prof. B.N. Goswami (Director, IITM, Pune) Dr. G. Beig (ENVIS Co-ordinetor) Ms. Neha S. Parkhi (Program Officer) Mr. Rajnikant
More informationClimate Change : Facts and Future Scenarios
Climate Change : Facts and Future Scenarios Dr Jim Salinger National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Auckland, NZ FOA/MAF 6 th Annual Forest Biosecurity Workshop 8-9 th March 2007 Outline Facts
More informationIs the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? Is the Climate Changing? 12/13/2016. Yes!
1 2 3 Yes! 4 Yes! But Earth's climate is always changing! 5 Yes! But Earth's climate is always changing! 6 Throughout its 4.5 billion year history, Earth's climate has alternated between periods of warmth
More informationWhat is climate change? - BBC News
What is climate change? - BBC News Media caption Why we should care about climate change? In December, of cials from across the world will gather in Paris, France, to try to hammer out a deal to tackle
More informationCarbon Dioxide and Global Warming Case Study
Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming Case Study Key Concepts: Greenhouse Gas Carbon dioxide El Niño Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gas La Niña Land use Methane Nitrous oxide Radiative forcing
More informationPHY392S Physics of Climate. Lecture 1. Introduction
PHY392S Physics of Climate Lecture 1 Introduction Slides based on material from Prof. K. Strong PHY392S - Physics of Climate Lecture 1, Page 1 Some Definitions Weather the fluctuating state of the atmosphere
More informationClimate Change, Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
Climate Change, Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols J Srinivasan J Srinivasan is a Professor at the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. He was a lead author
More informationClimate Change Frequently Asked Questions Scrambled Information Source: EPA Climate Change FAQ
Climate Change Frequently Asked Questions Scrambled Information Source: EPA Climate Change FAQ Instructions: The questions and answers below have been scrambled. Cut the answers and questions apart. Separate
More informationState of the global climate 2012 with reference to the past 20 years
State of the global climate 2012 with reference to the past 20 years 2012 Further developed from the past 20 year UNEP report Keeping Track of Our Changing Environment From Rio to Rio+20 (1992-2012) UNEP
More informationTuesday Dec 2nd TOPIC # 13 Global Warming Wrap Up TOPIC #14 IMPACTS & ISSUES
Tuesday Dec 2nd TOPIC # 13 Global Warming Wrap Up TOPIC #14 IMPACTS & ISSUES SIT WITH YOUR GROUP TODAY ANNOUNCEMENTS: LINKING-TO-LIFE PROJECT PART A Your Ecological Footprint DUE in class TODAY! PART B
More informationLecture 11: Global Warming. Human Acticities. Natural Climate Changes. Global Warming: Natural or Man-Made CO 2 CH 4
Lecture 11: Global Warming Human Acticities CO 2 CH 4 The initial appearance of human species: last 100,000 to 200,000 years Development of the first civilization: the last 10,000 years What is the sensitivity
More informationLecture 7 Global Warming/Climate Change (Observations and Attribution of Cause) METR/ENVS 113 Spring Semester 2011 May 3, 2011
Lecture 7 Global Warming/Climate Change (Observations and Attribution of Cause) METR/ENVS 113 Spring Semester 2011 May 3, 2011 Reading Henson Rough Guide Chapter 1 Pages 75 127; 215; 227-244 Other pages
More informationIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report Andrea J. Ray, Ph.D. NOAA Earth Systems Research Lab & NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment Boulder, CO Andrea.Ray@noaa.gov http:/www.cdc.noaa.gov
More informationMaxwell Climate Change Workshop Background: The Nature of the Problem
Maxwell Climate Change Workshop Background: The Nature of the Problem Peter J Wilcoxen Departments of Economics and Public Administration The Maxwell School of Syracuse University September 21, 2010 1
More informationGlobal Warming is unequivocal
Global Warming is unequivocal The recent Kevin IPCC E Trenberth report has clearly stated that Warming NCAR of the climate system is unequivocal and it is very likely caused by human activities. Moreover,
More informationClimate Change and Air Quality
Climate Change and Air Quality SW PA Air Quality Action June 6, 2007 Peter J. Adams Associate Professor Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering and Public Policy Outline Climate Change Primer What
More informationLecture 2: Greenhouse Gases - Basic Background on Atmosphere - GHG Emission and Concentration Rise - California Regulation (AB32)
Lecture 2: Greenhouse Gases - Basic Background on Atmosphere - GHG Emission and Concentration Rise - California Regulation (AB32) METR 113/ENVS 113 Spring Semester 2011 February 15, 2011 Suggested Reading
More informationClimate Change. Some solar radiation is reflected by Earth and the atmosphere. Earth s Surface
Q& A n The Basics of Greenhouse gases affect Earth s energy balance and climate The Sun serves as the primary energy source for Earth s climate. Some of the incoming sunlight is reflected directly back
More informationGlobal Climatic Change. GEOG/ENST 2331 Lecture 22 Ahrens: Chapter 16
Global Climatic Change GEOG/ENST 2331 Lecture 22 Ahrens: Chapter 16 Global Climatic Change! Review: Radiation balance! Enhanced greenhouse effect! human-induced change! Climate feedbacks Climatic change!
More informationGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
1 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE From About Transportation and Climate Change (Source; Volpe center for Climate Change and Environmental forecasting, http://climate.volpe.dot.gov/trans.html Greenhouse effect has
More informationREPORT. Executive Summary
C C C R 2 01 9 REPORT Executive Summary 2 Canada s Changing Climate Report Executive Summary 3 Authors Elizabeth Bush, Environment and Climate Change Canada Nathan Gillett, Environment and Climate Change
More informationProjections of Climate Change and Some Implications for Ocean Ecosystems
Projections of Climate Change and Some Implications for Ocean Ecosystems R. K. Pachauri 29 th June 2013 Okinawa, Japan Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel
More informationUnderstanding Global Warming
Math 483 Spring Semester, 2013 California State University, Northridge Understanding Global Warming Global Warming is Real December 2012 is 334th consecutive Month with global temperatures above the 20th
More informationThe Chemistry of Climate Change. Reading: Chapter 8 Environmental Chemistry, G. W. vanloon. S. J. Duffy
The Chemistry of Climate Change Reading: Chapter 8 Environmental Chemistry, G. W. vanloon. S. J. Duffy The Science of Global Climate There's a lot of differing data, but as far as I can gather, over the
More informationThe human pressure on the planet Earth and the international efforts to limit climate change UNIVERSITÀ DI ROMA SAPIENZA FLAMINIA TUMINO
The human pressure on the planet Earth and the international efforts to limit climate change UNIVERSITÀ DI ROMA SAPIENZA FLAMINIA TUMINO Summary: Part I Science Part II Policy Part III Carbon footprint
More informationGlobal Insolation Budget. Solar Radiation. Greenhouse Gases. Air: Climate and Pollution. Weather, Climate, Winds, Rain
Global Insolation Budget Air: Climate and Pollution Weather, Climate, Winds, Rain Changes in solar radiation are responsible for many important environmental factors, including El Niño. Review them Solar
More informationWake Acceleration Academy Earth & Environmental Science: Semester B Note Guide Unit 2: Earth s Changing Climate
1 Wake Acceleration Academy Earth & Environmental Science: Semester B Note Guide Unit 2: Earth s Changing Extra Resources Website: http://waa-science.weebly.com Module 1: The Mechanics of Change 1. What
More informationAnnouncements. Homework 8 - paper 2 topics, questions and sources due Tuesday, Nov. 13 Midterm Paper 2 - due Tuesday, Nov. 20
Thursday, November 6th. Announcements. Homework 8 - paper 2 topics, questions and sources due Tuesday, Nov. 13 Midterm Paper 2 - due Tuesday, Nov. 20 Lecture #18-1 Lecture #18-2 http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/06/project-to-harness-plankton-puts-to-sea/index.html
More informationThe instrumental record goes back to about A few areas of the globe have not warmed in recent decades, mainly over some parts of the Southern
The instrumental record goes back to about 1850. A few areas of the globe have not warmed in recent decades, mainly over some parts of the Southern Hemisphere oceans and parts of Antarctica. The rate of
More informationClimate Change Facts Last Update: 16 th May 2009 (last Section deleted Jan.2016)
Climate Change Facts Last Update: 16 th May 2009 (last Section deleted Jan.2016) Carbon Dioxide, the Atmosphere and Temperature Increase Fossil fuel burning puts 6.3 Gt of C into the atmosphere annually
More informationThe Effects of Volcano-Induced Ozone Depletion on Short-Lived Climate Forcing in the Arctic
C53C-0852 The Effects of Volcano-Induced Ozone Depletion on Short-Lived Climate Forcing in the Arctic Peter L. Ward US Geological Survey Retired Teton Tectonics Jackson, WY 307-733-3664 cell 307-413-4055
More informationCHAPTER 19. Global Change
CHAPTER 19 Global Change WALKING ON THIN ICE Polar bears play important role in North Pole ecosystem Food seals Important as food and fur for clothing source for indigenous people Problem temperatures
More informationPrimer on Climate Change Science
Primer on Climate Change Science J U LY 2 0 1 1 Peter Rejcek/The Antarctic Sun N at i o N a l a s s o c i at i o N o f c l e a N a i r a g e N c i e s 192 The purpose of this brochure is to provide a summary
More informationChapter 19: Global Change
1 Summary Of the Case Study Polar Bear population in the Antarctic going down because temperatures are going up and melting the caps. Polar bears are losing their habitat, they also can t get their food
More informationLocal and Global Impacts of Climate Change: Predictions of the 5th IPCC Report
Local and Global Impacts of Climate Change: Predictions of the 5th IPCC Report Peter Schlosser Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering The Earth
More informationThe Science of Climate Change
The Science of Climate Change http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Glaciers are retreating worldwide, including Colorado Arapahoe Glacier, 1917 Arapahoe Glacier, 2004 Sea Level is Rising End of summer ice
More informationClimate Change Detection and Scenarios: Re-examining the Evidence
WMO O Climate Change Detection and Scenarios: Re-examining the Evidence UNEP By Dr. R.K. Pachauri Director General, TERI and Chairman, IPCC At Yale Center for the Study of Globalization 21 st October 2005
More informationGEOENGINEERING FOR DECISION MAKERS. Bob Olson Senior Fellow Institute for Alternative Futures
GEOENGINEERING FOR DECISION MAKERS Bob Olson Senior Fellow Institute for Alternative Futures A Framework for Thinking About Geoengineering Geoengineering Technologies Solar Radiation Management (SRM) Stratospheric
More informationLecture 29: Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes
Lecture 29: Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes 1. The Meaning of Detection and Attribution The response to anthropogenic changes in climate forcing occurs against a backdrop of natural
More informationDef: Climate is the average weather. Averages all the local, regional and global extremes in weather. - Occurs on long time scales
Climate Change Def: Climate is the average weather. Averages all the local, regional and global extremes in weather. - Occurs on long time scales Most important factor in climate is how the Earth responds
More informationThe Science of Climate Change
The Science of Climate Change Dr Mark Diesendorf Associate Professor & Deputy Director Institute of Environmental Studies University of New South Wales m.diesendorf@unsw.edu.au December 2014 1 Background
More informationGlobal Climate Change:
Ottawa Security Workshop Global Climate Change: Science & Impacts; Uncertainty & Risk Jay Gulledge, PhD Senior Scientist Pew Center on Global Climate Change & Non-resident Senior Fellow Center for a New
More informationGlobal warming. Human (mainly industrial-era) activity changing the global climate now and over the next several centuries
Global warming Human (mainly industrial-era) activity changing the global climate now and over the next several centuries 1. Burning fossil fuels (primarily) 2. Land use changes (mostly local impacts)
More information11/15. Agenda. Albedo Effect Simulator: Discussion Climate Change Notes
Agenda 11/15 Albedo Effect Simulator: Discussion Climate Change Notes Announcements -Test (11/20) -Notebook check (tomorrow) -Lab due (11.59pm, tomorrow) -No quiz tomorrow Criteria Table of contents labeled
More informationDr David Karoly School of Meteorology
Global warming: Is it real? Does it matter for a chemical engineer? Dr David Karoly School of Meteorology Email: dkaroly@ou.edu Recent global warming quotes Senator James Inhofe (R, Oklahoma), Chair, Senate
More informationHow things work college course/cumulative global warming exam/testbank
How things work college course/cumulative global warming exam/testbank From Wikiversity Contents 1 GlobalWarmingCumulative 1.1 GlobalWarmingCumulative v1s1 1.1.1 Key to GlobalWarmingCumulative v1s1 1.2
More informationThe Atmospheric System 6.1
The Atmospheric System 6.1 What is the atmosphere? Layer of gas that surrounds our planet. The atmosphere is a dynamic system with inputs, outputs, storages and flows. Heat and pollutants are carried
More informationDetermining causes of warming: Climate models & the smoking gun
Determining causes of warming: Climate models & the smoking gun Announcements TONIGHT: HW #6 (paper outlines) due in lecture! bring up at Break HW #7 (presentation outlines) due in section next week Email
More informationGreenhouse Effect. The Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases let short-wavelength radiation come into the Earth s atmosphere from the sun. However, they absorb and re-radiate Earth s long-wavelength radiation
More informationEarth's Atmosphere. Atmospheric Layers. Atmospheric Layers
Earth's Atmosphere Today we will talk about the part of Earth that is most important to our survival - the atmosphere Earth's atmosphere is unique in the Solar System and has changed greatly over time
More informationGreenhouse Effect. How we stay warm
Greenhouse Effect How we stay warm The Sun s energy reaches Earth through Radiation (heat traveling through Space) How much solar radiation reaches Earth? The Earth s surface only absorbs 51% of incoming
More informationIntroduction. Frequently Used Abbreviations and Acronyms
This Appendix is based upon material provided by the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. Frequently Used Abbreviations and Acronyms CO 2 : Carbon Dioxide IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel
More informationair pollution air pollution atmospheric pollution atmosphere unit 9
air pollution unit 9 air pollution health effects WHO estimates that air pollution killed 7 million people in 2012 - more than double previous estimates indoor vs. outdoor (ambient) household pollution
More informationClimate Change Science: What We Know
Climate Change Science: What We Know by Lydia Olander, Rob Jackson, Gabi Hegerl, and Nicole St.Clair March 2007 What We Know 1. Scientists first described how accumulating carbon dioxide levels would raise
More informationChapter 2. Climate Change: Scientific Basis
a. The Greenhouse Effect Chapter 2 Climate Change: Scientific Basis Climate scientists have clearly established that: The Earth s atmosphere is like a greenhouse, reflecting some of the sun s harmful rays
More informationThe Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) Report: A Key Update
Agenda Item: ATCM 14, CEP 7 Presented by: SCAR Original: English Submitted: 05/04/2013 The Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) Report: A Key Update 1 The Antarctic Climate Change and the
More informationThe UK s approach to Climate Change
The UK s approach to Climate Change AAAS, Seattle, 13 February 2004 David A Warrilow Head of Science Policy, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK David.Warrilow@defra.gsi.gov.uk Overview
More information1) Draw a diagram of the Greenhouse Effect with as much detail as you can.
As you re coming in: 1) Draw a diagram of the Greenhouse Effect with as much detail as you can. (Then hang them up on the back wall) 2) Write down any words or ideas you need or would like me to define
More informationGlobal warming: Evidence, risks and mitigation options (or: Why global warming is an energy issue) Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste
Global warming: Evidence, risks and mitigation options (or: Why global warming is an energy issue) Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste Four frequent questions Is global warming happening? (If yes)
More informationIWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change. Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change
IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Drivers and Impacts of Climate Change Outline presentation This session will address: The drivers/physical science basis of climate change The observed and
More informationGlobal Climate Change: What the Future Holds, and What We Can Do About It
Global Climate Change: What the Future Holds, and What We Can Do About It Dr. David Karowe Professor, Department of Biological Sciences Schedule of Topics September 29: Recent climate change (Dave Karowe)
More informationUnderstanding the Causes of Global Climate Change
FACT SHEET I: Attribution Environment Understanding the Causes of Global Climate Change Average air temperatures at the Earth s surface have increased by approximately 0.6 o C (1 o F) over the 20 th century.
More informationToday. Terrestrial Planets. Atmospheres Climate. Factors affecting atmospheres. Earth, Venus, Mars. Greenhouse effect from planetary perspective
Today Terrestrial Planets Earth, Venus, Mars Atmospheres Climate Greenhouse effect from planetary perspective Factors affecting atmospheres EXAM NEXT TIME Why the sky is blue Atmosphere scatters blue light
More informationTOPIC # 15 GLOBAL WARMING & ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING (cont.)
TOPIC # 15 GLOBAL WARMING & ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING (cont.) Part B RADIATIVE FORCING Class Notes pp 89 THE KEY TO IT ALL: p 89 RADIATIVE FORCING (linked to the Energy Balance!) expressed in Watts per square
More informationConcerns about Climate Change and Global Warming
1 Concerns about Climate Change and Global Warming 1.1 Introduction Climate is defined as the typical behavior of the atmosphere, the aggregation of the weather, and is generally expressed in terms of
More informationCHAPTER 16 Oceans & Climate Change Chapter Overview Earth s Climate System Earth s Climate System Earth s Climate System Earth s Climate System
1 CHAPTER 16 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Oceans & Climate Change Chapter Overview Humans are adding greenhouse gases to Earth s atmosphere. Climate change will cause many severe problems in the ocean environment.
More information