PGE s 2013 Integrated Resource Plan

Transcription

1 PGE s 2013 Integrated Resource Plan OPUC Public Meeting 2014 Portland General Electric. All rights reserved.

2 Today s topics IRP public process Load-resource balance Assumptions and inputs E3 low-carbon portfolio process Flexible capacity analysis Portfolio analysis, results & observations PGE s 2013 IRP Action Plan PGE s next IRP 2

3 IRP public process Pre IRP Apr.- Nov Q Q Worked with E3 and Stakeholders to develop low-carbon portfolios Launched 2013 IRP process 5 public meetings, 3 technical workshops, written responses to questions Issued Draft 2013 IRP for public review November 22, 2013 Comments received January 22, 2014 Mar Q2-Q Q3-Q Filed Final 2013 IRP March 27, 2014 Discovery & comments submitted by Parties (June-August) OPUC Public Meeting to consider comments OPUC Order on 2013 IRP (estimated) 3

4 PGE Load-Resource Balance Energy position prior to RFP major resources 4

5 PGE Load-Resource Balance Winter capacity position prior to RFP major resources 5

6 PGE s 2009 IRP: Acknowledged Action Plan New Energy & Capacity Resource Actions: Acquire new demand-side resources by 2016: All ETO-targeted EE 60 MW of demand response 67 MW of additional dispatchable standby generation Acquire new renewables to meet the 2015 Oregon RPS with physical resources Approximately 101 MWa of new renewable resources Acquire new baseload energy and peaking capacity MW high-efficiency combined cycle gas plant Approximately 200 MW of flexible gas capacity resources Peak season capacity resources of up to 350 MW Fuel, Transmission, and Boardman 2020 Plan Actions: New Natural Gas Transportation & Storage Acquire pipeline & storage capacity to meet the fueling requirements of new gas-fired energy and capacity resources, and maintain portfolio flexibility Cascade Crossing Transmission Line Construct new 500 kv transmission line from Boardman to PGE system (conditional acknowledgement) Implement Boardman 2020 Plan Install new emission controls to meet Oregon Regional Haze / BART and Utility Mercury Rule requirements Cease coal-fired operations at Boardman in

7 PGE s new generation projects Tucannon River Wind Farm 116 Siemens 2.3 MW wind turbine generators (SWT ) Capacity: ~267 MW Expected annual energy: ~100 MWa Location: Columbia County, Washington Expected in-service: December March 31, 2015 Carty Generating Station High-efficiency, natural gas-fired combined cycle combustion turbine (Mitsubishi M501 GAC) Capacity: ~440 MW Location: Morrow County, Oregon Expected in-service: Mid-year 2016 Port Westward 2 Highly-flexible natural gas-fired power plant (12 Wärtsilä 18.5 MW reciprocating engine-generator sets) Capacity: ~220 MW Location: Columbia County, Oregon Expected in-service: Q

8 PGE portfolio composition 2014 vs Resource Capability (MWa) 2017 Resource Capability (MWa) 8

9 PGE Load-Resource Balance Energy position with RFP major resources Forecast annual average energy growth = 1.3% 9

10 PGE Load-Resource Balance Winter capacity position with RFP major resources Peak load includes 6% planning reserves = ~ 220 MW in 2018 Forecast peak demand growth = 1.0% winter 10

11 Key assumptions and inputs PGE customer demand projection: annual average load growth of approximately 1.3% per year ( , including effects of EE) Natural gas price: $4.76/MMBtu (real levelized 2013$ for ) Wood Mackenzie spring 2013 long-term forecast CO 2 tax: $18/ton (real levelized 2013$ for ) Wood Mackenzie spring 2013 long-term forecast In 2023 = $16/ton (nominal$) with 6% real growth PTC and ITC: available through 2022 Wind integration cost: $3.99/MWh (2018$) All portfolios meet physical compliance with Oregon RPS through 2025 All portfolios meet forecast peak winter capacity need (except Market portfolio) 11

12 Natural gas long-term price forecast Wood Mackenzie spring 2013 (reference, high, low) 12

13 Carbon futures Range of CO 2 costs modeled Guideline 8: Reference Case should reflect the most likely regulatory compliance future Using Wood Mackenzie s projection of a federal carbon pricing scheme for CO 2 ($18/ton real-levelized 2013$) CO 2 compliance scenarios from current level to the upper reaches of credible proposals Zero Low ($15/ton) Synapse Low ($21/ton) Synapse High ($54/ton) Trigger point CO 2 scenario that alters portfolio selection ($150/ton real-levelized 2013$) 13

14 Supply-side resource options Life-cycle cost of energy Source: Black & Veatch studies, PGE internal information 14

15 E3 portfolio process Objectives As an outcome of the 2009 IRP process PGE and a stakeholder group engaged consulting firm E3 to conduct analysis and help develop low carbon portfolios to be evaluated in the 2013 IRP Our IRP includes three lowcarbon candidate portfolios resulting from this process: Incorporate higher levels of EE (beyond ETO) Add renewables in excess of 2025 RPS requirement 15

16 E3 portfolio process Objectives E3 work also assessed actions to establish a glide path to achieve aggressive future GHG emissions reductions targets for PGE portfolio Implied long-term targets 2020: 15% below : 80% below 2005 Displacement of Colstrip also considered in E3 analysis to meet 2050 emissions reduction target Our Action Plan includes a study of emerging EE w/ ETO 16

17 Flexible capacity analysis Context Order No requires a forecast of supply of and demand for flexible capacity PGE s approach informed by NW Power and Conservation Council paper in 2012 on the ability of resources to meet ramping requirements Demand & Supply Rapid response resources required for variable energy resource output and short-term load changes Existing hydro resources can ramp up or down over short periods of time Port Westward 2 (PW2) will provide additional ramping capability Dispatchable standby generation can ramp up very quickly Other resources provide some ramping capability, but are less responsive and flexible 17

18 2015: Flexible capacity supply and demand 60 minutes Within the hour conclusions: Supply is able to meet up-ramp demand in 2015 Flexibility requirements due to additional wind (2015 RPS) are offset by PW 2 Supply is unable to meet all down-ramp demand in 2015 Wind could be feathered to offset this lack of capability 18

19 2020: Flexible capacity supply and demand 60 minutes Conclusions cont d: Supply is insufficient to meet all up-ramp demand in 2020 without additional flexible resources 19

20 18 candidate portfolios Resource additions through 2025 Energy E3 inspired Capacity contribution 20

21 36 Futures PGE risk drivers PGE Load Hydro Conditions Capital Costs CO 2 Tax Power Prices Fuel Price Futures Wind CF 21

22 Portfolio analysis Reference Case cost 22

23 Portfolio analysis Risk - severity and variability 23

24 Portfolio analysis LOLP reliability results 24

25 Portfolio analysis Box and whisker plot Box and whisker plot summarizes the result distributions End points of lines represent best (lowest) and worst (highest) cost outcomes Line space above and below the box represent 25% of outcomes 50% of outcomes within the box X marks the reference case Colored circles are 10 th (blue) and 90 th (orange) percentiles 25

26 Portfolio analysis Top performers All three portfolios pursue physical RPS compliance in 2020 and 2025 Natural Gas: Add CCCT in 2021 and 2024 Baseload Gas/RPS only: Add CCCT in 2019 and 2021 Diversified Baseload Gas/Wind: Add CCCT in 2019 and 2021 Additional wind in 2017, 2018, 2023 (beyond RPS) 26

27 PGE CO 2 Profile Total emissions and impact of resource actions Portfolio Actions through 2024 (post Boardman 2020 Plan) reduce projected PGE CO 2 emissions by over 40% (as compared to CO 2 emissions projection absent abatement actions). Projected aggregate CO 2 emissions decline by 20% in 2024 from 2000 levels. Above CO 2 targets (dotted lines) represent various State of Oregon aspirational goals for CO 2 reduction. Boardman coal replaced with Northwest Regional Mix CO 2 profile in 2021 (roughly equal to CCCT). 27

28 PGE CO 2 Profile Emissions intensity net of resource actions CO 2 intensity of PGE portfolio steadily declining since 2000 projected to achieve nearly 40% reduction by 2024 Boardman coal replaced with Northwest Regional Mix CO 2 profile in 2021 (roughly equal to CCCT). 28

29 2013 IRP key observations & findings Projected post-rfp PGE portfolio is largely balanced through 2017 (IRP Action Plan horizon) No new supply-side resources proposed in this IRP Natural gas prices remain low & stable Prices projected to increase modestly in the future, but abundant domestic supply is expected to keep prices at relatively low levels Uncertainty regarding regulation of Greenhouse Gas emissions remains Federal agency action is in process; effect on existing plants not yet determined Unclear whether CO 2 costs will be levied on electric generators at either the Federal or State level in the future IRP analysis indicates that high efficiency, natural gas-fired generation (CCCT) currently represents the lowest expected energy cost for future supply-side resource alternatives (based on reference case gas price forecast) Balanced portfolios (combination of EE, renewables, and natural gas-fired generation) generally exhibit the best overall cost and risk performance under uncertain future conditions 29

30 2013 IRP Action Plan Resource additions through 2017 No new long-term supply-side resources proposed Renew legacy hydro contracts if available and economic Energy efficiency (via ETO): 124 MWa (158 MW total) Dispatchable Standby Generation: additional 23 MW (116 MW total) Demand response: additional 25 MW (45 MW total) Short- and mid-term market purchases & sales to balance portfolio Studies and initiatives to inform PGE s next IRP Review load forecast methodology Assess emerging EE (with ETO) Evaluate distributed generation (solar PV) Continue technical & economic assessment of Boardman biomass Assess dynamic dispatch requirement & capabilities Review new analytical tools for optimizing portfolio commitment and dispatch Assess longer-term gas supply alternatives to address price volatility 30

31 Major topics of PGE s next IRP Boardman plant replacement (2021) Meeting growing RPS requirements Meeting increased gas fueling needs Future environmental regulations Energy Imbalance Market (EIM) Impact of California solar (the duck chart) Future capacity/flexible resource needs Regional Supply-Demand balance (+2,000 MW of coal retirements) 31

32 Conclusion Thank you! Brett Sims PGE Director Origination, Structuring & Resource Strategy