Heat Roadmap Europe 2050 Pre-studies 1 & 2 Decarbonising the European heating and cooling markets

Transcription

1 Heat Roadmap Europe 2050 Pre-studies 1 & 2 Decarbonising the European heating and cooling markets David Connolly Assistant Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University, Denmark

2 2 HRE 2050 Pre-Study 1 & 2 Authors Aalborg University David Connolly Brian Vad Mathiesen Poul Alberg Østergaard Bernd Möller Steffen Nielsen Henrik Lund Planenergi Daniel Trier Halmstad University Urban Persson Daniel Nilsson Sven Werner Ecofys Jan Grözinger Thomas Boermans Michelle Bosquet

3 3 Existing Studies Energy Roadmap 2050 (EU Commission) Roadmap 2050 (European Climate Foundation) General Consensus: Combined heat & power (CHP) and The energy report district heating 100% renewable (DH) are important energy by 2050 (WWF)... but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system... Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (IEA) World Energy Outlook (IEA) Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 (WEC) 2 Academic Journal Papers (Stanford, UC Davis, Lund University, et al.)

4 4 Methodology GIS Mapping District Heating Demands Energy System Modelling BAU (References) District Heating Resources District Heating Alternatives Indicate Costs Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

5 GIS Based Information Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermal

6 6 Energy System Analysis Tool Hydro water Hydro storage Hydro power plant Electricity storage system Import/ Export fixed and variable Electricity demand RES electricity Fuel RES heat PP CHP Boiler Heat pump and electric boiler Cooling device Heat storage Electrolyser H2 storage Cars Industry Cooling demand Heat demand Transport demand Process heat demand

7 7 Future: Energy Roadmap 2050 Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual EE: Energy Efficiency CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear High RE

8 8 2030/2050 Modelling EU CPI PRIMES Data 2030 & 2050 Model EU Energy Roadmap 2050 Current Policy Initiatives (CPI) District Heating Alternatives 2010 = 12% DH 2030 = 30% DH 2050= 50% DH Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

9 Primary Energy Supply (TWh) CO2 Emissions (Mt) /2050 Steps 1 & 2 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050 EP CPI vs. HRE RE Existing CHP & DH Additional CHP & DH Other renewable Biomass Natural gas IEA 12% DH EP CPI 10% DH HRE 30% DH with RE EP CPI 10% DH HRE 50% DH with RE Oil Coal Nuclear CO2 Emission

10 District Heating Production (TWh) 10 District Heating Supply 1,800 District Heating Production for Heating Buildings from 2010 to ,600 1,400 1,200 1, Boiler Solar thermal Geothermal heat Heat pumps 600 Waste incineration 400 Industrial surplus heat Present 12% DH % DH & RE % DH & RE Additional CHP Existing CHP IEA HRE

11 Primary Energy Supply (TWhJ) CO2-emissions (Mt) 11 Total European Energy Supply EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 from 2010 to 2050 EP CPI vs HRE RE 20,000 18,000 16,000 HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050: ,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply 10% reduction in fossil fuels 13% reduction in CO2-emissions Other renewable Biomass Natural gas Oil Coal 2, Nuclear 0 IEA 12% DH EP CPI 10% DH HRE 30% DH with RE EP CPI 10% DH HRE 50% DH with RE 0 CO2 Emissions

12 Annual costs [Billion ] 12 Cost and Jobs Annual saved fuel costs of ~ 30 Billion Total costs reduced by ~ 14 Billion Annual EU27 costs for heating buildings in 2010 to 2050 IEA EU CPI HRE RE EU CPI HRE RE Annual investment costs Fixed operation costs CO2 emission costs Marginal operation cost Fuel Total Additional Investment of ~ 500 Billion Additional jobs: 8-9 million man-years in total Approximately 220,000 jobs/year

13 13 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP Decrease primary energy supply and especially LESS fossil FUEL fuels and CO2 emissions Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately LESS MONEY 14 Billion in 2050 Create additional 220,000 jobs MORE EU JOBS over the period Further integration of RES MORE RE

14 14 Heat Roadmap Europe 2 Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?

15 15 Future: Energy Roadmap 2050 Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the National Technical University in Athens Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27: Reference: Business-as-usual CPI: Updated business-as-usual EE: Energy Efficiency CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear High RE

16 Total Costs (M /year) 16 1,600,000 HRE2 Results Investment Fuel Fixed O&M Variable O&M CO2 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , May 2013 EE HRE2 EE HRE

17 Total Costs (M /year) 17 1,600,000 HRE2 Results Investment Fuel Fixed O&M Variable O&M CO2 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 See You in Vienna? or May 2013 EE HRE2 EE HRE

18 18 Questions?