Incentive Based Regulation (IBR)

Transcription

1 Incentive Based Regulation (IBR) briefing to Malaysian International Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MICCI) 7 th January 2015

2 1 Background 2 IBR 3 Imbalanced Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) 1

3 Incentive Based Regulation (IBR) is a form of economic regulation Implementation of IBR What is economic regulation? Economic regulation is a form of regulatory intervention to ensure power utilities are operating efficiently Introduced by the Energy Commission in 2012 Prices charges will be based on efficient costs Quality of service and performance of the companies assets are maintained Utilities get the right incentives to improve its performance and increase investments sustainably 2 2

4 IBR, also known as Performance Based Regulation has been widely adopted IBR is widely adopted in Europe and being introduced in South East Asia Performance Based Regulation) Cost-plus Performance Based Regulation No IBR Sweden Norway Finland Myanmar Estonia Latvia Ireland U.K. Denmark Netherlands Lithuania Thailand Laos Vietnam Philippines Belgium Germany* Luxembourg Czech R. Poland Slovakia Cambodia Brunei France Slovenia Austria Hungary Romania Malaysia Portugal 2 Monaco Italy Bulgaria Indonesia Spain Greece Malta 2 IBR is an improvement over the cost plus model as it enables tracking of efficiencies and improves costs IBR applies to natural monopoly parts of the power sector such as transmission and distribution networks Source: McKinsey 3

5 1 Background 2 IBR 3 Imbalanced Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) 4

6 Base Tariff and Imbalance Cost Pass Through (ICPT)" Electricity tariff comprises two key components: 1.Base Tariff is set to reflect: a) The construction cost of Transmission and Distribution system b) Base fuel and power purchase cost c) Operation, maintenance and administration costs 2. ICPT: Tariff adjustment to reflect the change in uncontrollable costs against Base Tariff i.e. change in fuel and other purchasing costs sen/kwh Changes in ICPT Generation specific costs under SB OPEX and Return on Asset for SB (Operations), System Operator, Transmission and Customer Services FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Regulatory Period 2 Imbalance Cost Pass- Through 1 Base Tariff 5 5

7 Tariff increased by 4.99 sen/kwh effective 1 st Jan % of the tariff increase in January 2014 is due to removal of gas subsidies and introduction of LNG at market price Source of tariff increase 2014, sen/kwh 3.92 Piped gas LNG % 4.99 sen/kwh Gas price Coal Non-Fuel 2014 Per centage of increase 78.6% 3.4% 18% LNG: RM41.68/ mmbtu Piped gas: increased to RM15.20/mmBTU from RM13.70/ mmbtu Increased to USD 87.50/tonne from USD 85/tonne To account for capex and opex for FY 2014 to FY

8 The electricity supply industry is a highly capital intensive sector 7

9 TNB spends RM10 billion in Capital Expenditure in FY2014 to maintain supply reliability and security CAPEX for Distribution and Transmission - RM6 billion per year - RM24 billion ( ) Distribution CAPEX includes new supply and system improvements on its network and multiconnection channels kv substations 33/11kV substation Transmission CAPEX includes network enhancement and development. CAPEX for Generation An estimated RM3 4 billion - Ulu Jelai Hydro Power Plant (372 MW) - Hulu Terengganu Hydro Power Plant (265 MW) Generation CAPEX includes power plant developments, and capital projects. TNB is currently spending an estimated RM3 4 billion for Ulu Jelai and Hulu Terengganu hydro power plants, expected to be completed in Whilst CAPEX on capital projects is estimated at RM700 million per year. 8

10 Our investments have enabled us to deliver on our performance... Key performance indicators Generation Transmission Distribution Plant Availability 1 System minutes 2 SAIDI 3-4% % % Notes: 1. Generation Plant Availability in % 2. System Minutes Measures the down time of the Transmission System in a year 3. SAIDI System Average Interruption Duration Index, measures the average supply disruption per customer per year 9

11 1 Background 2 IBR 3 Imbalanced Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) 10

12 ICPT is a core part of the IBR, which is a globally adopted mechanism to ensure the financial sustainability of the sector Tariff mechanism is regulated under the Regulatory Implementation Guidelines approved by Cabinet on January 2012 Electricity tariff, sen per kwh Fuel volatility Piped gas Base tariff adjusted every Regulatory Period Reflects power purchase costs, operating costs and returns on regulated assets Negotiated every 3 years based on regulatory guidelines set out by the ST Regulatory Period 1 Regulatory Period 2 Imbalance Cost Pass Through adjusted every 6 months No incremental profit for TNB Reflects two components Piped gas subsidy rationalisation for PETRONAS Manages fuel price and volume volatility within period beyond TNB s control With subsidy rationalisation, electricity prices will increase over time until gas price reaches market Widely adopted globally in developed and developing markets (e.g. 4 out of 10 countries in SE Asia) 11

13 The downtrend in the coal price has resulted in some savings to TNB Power Sector Coal Price, USD/MT Actual Average Coal Price (CIF) Benchmark coal price set in Jan 14 tariff revision Benchmark price in tariff Benchmark coal price set in March 09 tariff revision Benchmark coal price set in July 08 tariff revision Benchmark coal price set in June 06 tariff revision FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 Source: 1- TNB Analyst Briefing 4QFY

14 actual coal prices for FY2013 and FY2014 were below benchmark prices Power Sector Coal Price, USD/MT 85 Benchmark coal price set since Mar 09 tariff revision Actual Average Coal Price (CIF) 1 Benchmark price in tariff Avg FY 13 = Benchmark coal price set in Jan 14 tariff revision -17% Avg FY 14 = Q1FY 13 Q2FY 13 Q3FY 13 Q4FY 13 Q1FY 14 Q2FY 14 Q3FY 14 Q4FY 14 Source: 1- TNB Analyst Briefing 4QFY2013 and 4Q

15 however, it is offset against a substantially higher LNG cost The actual LNG price billed to the power sector is 10% to 17% higher than the benchmark price set in Jan 2014 tariff Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Price to Power Sector, RM/mmBTU Actual price billed by PETRONAS 1 Benchmark price in tariff Benchmark LNG price for gas consumption > 1,000 mmscfd set in Jan 2014 electricity tariff revision % +14% +17% +10% Q (Apr - Jun 13) Q (Jul - Sep 13) Q (Oct - Dec 13) Q (Jan - Mar 14) Q (Apr - Jun 14) Q (Jul - Sep 14) Q (Oct - Dec 14) Apr- 13 May- 13 Jun- 13 Jul- 13 Aug- 13 Sep- 13 Oct- 13 Nov- 13 Dec- 13 Jan- 14 Feb- 14 Mar- 14 Apr- 14 May- 14 Jun- 14 Jul- 14 Aug- 14 Sep- 14 Oct- 14 Nov- 14 Dec- 14 Jan- 15 Source: 1- Single Buyer Department, TNB 14

16 Furthermore, TNB needs to also recover additional cost due to the gradual revision of pipeline gas price by the Government As part of the Subsidy Rationalisation Program Regulated Gas Price to Power Sector, RM/mmBTU May 97 Jun 08: Fixed price at RM 6.40/mmBtu July 08: 123% increase Jun 11: 28% increase Jan 14: 11% increase, the new gas price is only applicable to gas consumption 1,000 mmscfd Nov 14: Government decided to maintain the gas price until Jun Mar 09: 25% reduction May 97 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Jul 08 Mar 09 Jun 11 Jan 14 Jun 15 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Note: Prior to May 97, the Gas Price Formula for Power Sector = 1.04 x MFO Price Source: 1 - Kenyataan Akhbar Pelepasan Kos Bahan Api dan Penjanaan bagi Semakan Semula Tarif Elektrik di Sem. M sia, Nov

17 No increase in tariff despite higher fuel costs incurred RM1.683 bil absorbed by using savings from PPA renegotiation and maintaining piped gas price at RM15.20/mmBTU Total cost of RM1.683 billion Govt. announced that tariff will be maintained until 30 th June ) TOTAL ICPT RM million RM mill RM mill Jan - June July - Dec 2) COST OF MAINTAINING PIPED GAS PRICE AT RM15.20 / mmbtu : RM836 million NO POWER TARIFF INCREASE UNTIL JUNE 2015 The Ministry would like to announce that in the interest of the rakyat the Government has decided to maintain the current electricity tariffs rate until 30 th June 2015 The Star, 6 th November 2014 Datuk Seri Dr Maximus Ongkili Minister Energy, Green Tech. and Water Government will manage the cost of RM billion for fuel and generation costs, by using savings generated through the negotiated Power Purchase Agreement (PPAs) of the first generation IPPs and maintaining the current piped gas price supplied by PETRONAS to the electricity sector 16

18 Key Highlights ICPT Jan-June and July-December Estimated ICPT cost passed through from Jan 2014 to Dec 2014:- a) Jan 2014 June 2014 = RM mn (0.90 sen/kwh) b) July 2014 Dec 2014 = RM mn (0.72 sen/kwh) Total ICPT = RM mn (1.62 sen/kwh) 2. ICPT cost of RM mn fully absorbed by PPA savings. 3. Pipeline gas price will remain constant at RM This will result in a foregone revenue for Petronas at RM 836 mn 4. ICPT costs absorbed by savings from PPA renegotiations and deferment of piped gas price increase 17

19 Thank You 18 18

20 POWERING THE NATION TNB s Energy Efficiency (EE) Initiatives Knowledge Sharing Session with MICCI 7 th January 2015 Disclaimer: All information contained herein are solely for the purpose of this presentation only and cannot be used or referred to by any party for other purposes without prior written consent from TNB. Information contained herein is the property of TNB and it is protected and confidential information. TNB has exclusive copyright over the information and you are prohibited from disseminating, distributing, copying, reproducing, using and/or disclosing this information

21 Content Background Sustainability Challenges Definitions TNB EE Initiatives EE Programmes Smart Grid (SG) Demand Side Management (DSM) Conclusions 2

22 Introduction In the long term, energy derived from fossil fuel could have some adverse impacts on sustainability and environment. Hence requires a prudential and effective approach in energy utilisation. Energy Efficiency (EE) and Demand Side Management (DSM) is one of the main mitigation measures. TNB is embarking on various EE and DSM initiatives to support sustainable growth. 3

23 Sustainability Challenges Escalating electricity demand due to high GDP growth averaging about 4% p.a. High dependency on fossil fuels (more than 90% from gas and coal) Increasing cost of supply Reduction of CO 2 emission & low carbon economy Increasing pressure on energy security Require significant resources to meet demand Reliance on 100% imported coal - issue on energy security Rationalising energy subsidies and recovery of higher cost of supply in the long term amid intermittent cost volatility. Commitment to reduce up to 40% in emission intensity of GDP in year 2020 compared to 2005 levels Higher demand on reliability of energy supply 4

24 Smart Grid Overview (Future enabler of EE & DSM) A Smart Grid incorporates information and communications technology into every aspect of electricity generation, delivery and consumption in order to minimize environmental impact, enhance markets, improve reliability and service, and reduce costs and improve efficiency (EPRI) Generation Transmission Distribution Consumer Ancillary Services Enhanced DMA Loss DR/DSM Usage Optimisation TOU AMI Utilisation EV Charging Outage Management Proactive Maintenance Analytics (Grid/Consumption/Asset) Microgrid

25 Content Background Sustainability Challenges Definitions TNB EE Initiatives EE Programmes Smart Grid (SG) Demand Side Management (DSM) Conclusions 6

26 TNB s EE Initiatives 1. ENERGY EFFICIENCY (EE) Energy audits and consultancy at TNB and private buildings completed Development of Energy managers- ongoing trainings and programmes. Pilot EV charging terminal completed Energy awareness programmes energy tips, customer engagement. Home Energy Report (HER) in progress. 2. SMART GRID (SG) SG Pilot project (Smart Meter, AMI, ICT Integration, DR) at Melaka installation and customer engagement in progress. SG Realisation Plan (until 2020) understudy & in planning stage. 3. DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT (DSM) Option Interruptible Load- customer engagement and preparation for implementation Thermal Energy Storage (TES) - Bangsar Energy System, KLIA2 Current TOU tariff (2 part tariff), Government study on-going for enhancement 7

27 1. Energy Efficiency Communication Internal & External - EE Awareness, Energy Tips on Media

28 1. Energy Efficiency - Home Energy Report (HER) Target the domestic customer. Change consumer energy consumption via behavioural science. Create peer pressure behaviour and EE awareness. Provide personalised EE tips.

29 2. Smart Grid - Pilot - Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) pilot project Efficient Business Operations Tools for customers to save energy bills (TOU) AMI DR for economic operation Revenue Assurance Enhanced electricity supply reliability Enhanced customer service 200 Smart Meters in Putrajaya 800 Smart Meters in Melaka TNB decided to implement a small scale AMI Pilot project to test its benefits. Funding was obtained from the Malaysian Government (AAIBE/MESITA Fund). Implementation for 1,000 smart meters in Melaka and Putrajaya. The project is part of TNB s smart grid plan. 10

30 3. Demand Side Management - Some of TES projects undertaken by TNEC 11

31 Content Background Sustainability Challenges Definitions TNB EE Initiatives EE Programmes Smart Grid (SG) Demand Side Management (DSM) Conclusions 12

32 Conclusion TNB has embarked on numerous EE & DSM initiatives to support sustainability, including implementing EE and DSM projects via our subsidiaries e.g. TNBES, TNEC. TNB is exploring various options to modernise the ESI including through development and application of new technologies e.g Smart Grid & AMI. EE & DSM Development will benefit the customer and ESI by offering more innovative solutions. 13

33 THANK YOU 14