Biorefinery viability in a world of low oil and gas prices
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1 Biorefinery viability in a world of low oil and gas prices Tom Browne Program Manager, Biorefinery World Congress on Industrial Biotechnology July 22, 2015
2 I ve been using this slide for some time now 120 $ 100 $ Annual average oil prices, $US/bbl $80 to $100/bbl: the new normal? 80 $ 60 $ 40 $ 20 $ 0 $ Nominal Inflation Adjusted 2
3 Surprise, surprise Oil at $80-$100 3
4 Geopolitical drivers OPEC Saudi Arabia: low-cost producer driving out highcost capacity Other OPEC producers not so happy (Iran) Current turmoil in the Arab world Currently stable at? $45-$60, January-June 4
5 EIA Forecasts are often optimistic Graph provided by Karl Bartholomew, ICIS
6 My estimates are no better $75 in 2017? Graph provided by Karl Bartholomew, ICIS; forecasts by TCB
7 Global Supply Curve World demand 3/6/15 $48.71 Graph provided by Karl Bartholomew, ICIS; Source: Oil & Gas Journal Financial, January 12, 2015
8 So maybe $80 to $100 is a little optimistic but $70 to $90 may be reasonable. So: Can we still make money with bio-based chemicals at this price? 8
9 Chemical prices track oil NOT natural gas R 2, US IPEX vs Henry Hub = 2.2% R 2, US IPEX vs crude oil = 89.8% 9
10 So what are the possibilities? Biomass Conversion A Bio-crude Petroleum Benzene Ethyl Benzene Styrene Polystyrene Cyclohexane Adipic acid Nylon 6,6 Polyurethanes Caprolactam Nylon 6 Cumene Phenol PF resins Bisphenol A Caprolactam Salicylic acid Acetone Methyl Mecracrylate Solvents Bisphenol A Pharmaceuticals Xylene p-xylene Terephthalic acid Polyester fibres Polyester films Toluene Toluene diisocyanate Foam polyurethanes Conversion A: UOP-Ensyn pathway Butanes Iso-butylene Butadiene MTBE Polybutadiene Neoprene 10 Styrene butadiene 10
11 So what are the possibilities? Biomass Conversion B Conversion C Petroleum Benzene Ethyl Benzene Styrene Polystyrene Cyclohexane Adipic acid Nylon 6,6 Polyurethanes Caprolactam Nylon 6 Cumene Phenol PF resins Bisphenol A Caprolactam Salicylic acid Acetone Methyl Mecracrylate Solvents Bisphenol A Pharmaceuticals Xylene p-xylene Terephthalic acid Polyester fibres Polyester films Toluene Toluene diisocyanate Foam polyurethanes Conversion B: Lignin from black liquor Conversion C: Succinic acid from sugar Butanes Iso-butylene Butadiene MTBE Polybutadiene Neoprene 11 Styrene butadiene 11
12 Plywood resin prices vs oil prices (inflation adjusted) 1,500 $ 1955, 1960 y = 8.28x R² = ,250 $ 1,000 $ 750 $ $ 0 $ 20 $ 40 $ 60 $ 80 $ 100 $ 120 $ Data for 1955, 1960, 1980 ignored in the regression analysis Sources: SRI;
13 So what are the possibilities? Biomass Conversion D Conversion E Petroleum Benzene Ethyl Benzene Styrene Polystyrene Cyclohexane Adipic acid Nylon 6,6 Polyurethanes Xylene Toluene Cumene p-xylene Caprolactam Phenol Acetone Terephthalic acid Nylon 6 PF resins Bisphenol A Caprolactam Salicylic acid Methyl Mecracrylate Solvents Bisphenol A Pharmaceuticals Polyester fibres Polyester films Toluene diisocyanate Foam polyurethanes End-users: - Injection molders - Compounders - Tire mfg - Belts & hoses - Auto mfg - Etc. Butanes Iso-butylene MTBE 13 Butadiene Conversion D: Coke Plant bottle Polybutadiene Neoprene 13 Styrene butadiene
14 Market pull is there 14
15 Role of the Canadian forest sector Unique Canadian context requires unique solutions Biopathways process identified multiple paths forward Existing infrastructure provides a basis to build a new bio-economy Harvesting, logistics, transportation Wood handling systems, CHP plants, effluent treatment systems 15
16 What will the Canadian forest biorefinery look like? Wood is expensive It is spread thinly all over the map It is too expensive to make into fuels directly 16
17 Getting wood-based products to where the people are costs money Typical SW harvesting costs, Eastern Canada: Single-grip harvester, forwarder to roadside Cut-to-length, clearcut 120 m3/ha 8 ft spruce pulp logs m3/stem, 400 kg/m3 250 m skid distance 100 km haul distance Activity Felling & processing $36.00 Forwarding & skidding $19.00 Stumpage (typical) $20.00 Road maintenance $ 6.25 $/odt Total in-woods $81.25 Loading and transport $34.00 Other overhead $ 7.25 Total transport & other $41.25 Total roundwood delivered cost Source: FPInnovations BiOS model $
18 Residues are not a lot cheaper, and are full of bark Pre-piling Comminution $60.00 $50.00 $2.48 $13.52 $40.00 Transport: km one-way, live-floor chip van Other: - roads, supervision, overhead, maintenance, compliance, stumpage $30.00 $20.00 $30.54 $10.00 $9.00 $0.00 $/ODt 18
19 Residues are not a lot cheaper, and are full of bark Pre-piling Comminution $60.00 $50.00 $2.48 $13.52 $40.00 Transport: km one-way, live-floor chip van Other: - roads, supervision, overhead, maintenance, compliance, stumpage $30.00 $20.00 $30.54 $10.00 $9.00 $0.00 $/ODt 19
20 The Canadian forest biorefinery will include: A secondary industry making energy products from residues Heat and power onsite (CHP), solid fuels (pellets), liquid or pipeline fuels A healthy primary industry making chemicals and materials and residues for fuels 20
21 Conclusions Oil prices are a function of economics But also, to a great extent, of geopolitical stresses Platform chemicals track oil Bio-ethylene is challenging Intermediates: Oil a smaller part of costs? Growth in bio-based organic acids continues Succinic, lactic, FDCA, etc. Canadian forest sector is well-placed to play a major role 21
22 Thank you Thomas Browne, ing., Ph.D. Directeur de recherches, Bioraffinage/énergie Research Manager, Biorefinery/energy 570, boul. Saint-Jean, Pointe-Claire (QC) H9R 3J9 Tel Cell Follow us on
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