Natural Gas The North American market. Trevor Sikorski, September 2014
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1 Natural Gas The North American market Trevor Sikorski, September 2014
2 Overview Gas pricing contrasting fortunes Global gas pricing $/mmbtu Japan India UK US Global gas market: Still large global differences in pricing Gas is a premium fuel outside of NA Outside NA, prices fell on mild winter 2 0 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 In NA, price rose due to cold winter North American gas prices are jealously viewed around the rest of the world Source: Reuters, Energy Aspects 2
3 Natural gas demand weather has brought support End user gas consumption Tcf End user gas consumption, y-y Bcf (100) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Total end user consumption in 2014-to-date is up by 640 bcf (2.67 bcf/d, 3.7%) But there are no strong trends once you get past Q1 14 3
4 Natural gas demand weather has brought support Residential demand for gas Tcf Heating Degree Days HDDs Residential & Commercial demand in 2014-to-date is up by 462 Bcf (1.90 bcf/d, 8%). Our forecast for 2015 is for it to fall by 364 bcf (1.0 bcf/d, 4.3%) HDDs were up y/y by 12% over Q4 13 and Q1 14 4
5 Industrial sector gas demand consistently strong Industrial demand for gas Tcf Company Location Type Cost Additional capacity (thousand t/ y) ($ Mn) Williams Geismar, LA Expansion Ineos Chocolate Bayou, TX Expansion n/a Westlake Chemical Lake Charles, LA Expansion n/a LyondellBasell La Porte, TX Expansion n/a Westlake Chemical Calvert City, KY Expansion BASF Fina Petrochem. Port Arthur, TX Expansion n/a ExxonMobil Chemical Baytown, TX Expansion n/a ,500 Formosa Point Comfort, TX Construction 1, ,000 Mexichem / Oxychem Ingleside, TX Construction 1, Dow Chemical Freeport, TX Construction 1, ,500 ChevronPhillips Chem. Baytown, TX Construction 5, ,500 Shell Monaca, PA Construction 4, ,500 Sasol Lake Charles, LA Construction 4, ,500 Braskem Parkersburg, WV Construction ,500 Total 18, ,544 3,000 Industrial consumption in 2014-to-date is up by 200 bcf (0.83 bcf/d, 4.1%) forecast: up by 263 bcf (0.72 bcf/d, 3.4%) Outpacing economic growth; could see another significant boost as largest additions potentially still to come 5
6 Power sector gas demand system balancing Power sector demand for gas Tcf Fuel switching Tcf Power sector demand in 2014-to-date is lower by 93.5 bcf ( bcf/d, -2%) forecast: is higher by 1057 bcf (2.9 bcf/d, 13%). An important source of growth. Fuel switching is an important price mechanism for balancing the market 6
7 Gas in storage here every Thursday Storage injections Bcf 140 Max inj. - Min inj year average Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Total winter withdrawal of 3 tcf left gas inventories lower by 847 bcf, 50% lower Summer injections have been higher y/y by 376 bcf, storage now 471 bcf down. On course for an injection season end of 3.55 tcf 7
8 Supply is still surging Dry gas production Tcf Rig counts Rigs ,500 Oil Gas 2.2 2, ,500 1, Impressive increases in gas production 2014-to-date is up y/y by 759 bcf (3.12 bcf/d, 3.4%) forecast is for a 1 tcf y/y increase (3.0 bcf/d, 4.3%) Gas rig counts are down by over 60% since the highs of
9 Natural gas supply and it is all about Marcellus Shale gas production Bcf/d Shale gas production, y/y change in production Bcf/d 50 Bakken Niobrara Permian Haynesville 8 Bakken Permian Niobrara Eagle Ford Marcellus Haynesville 40 Eagle Ford Marcellus (2) (4) Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Marcellus growth 2014 is up by 918 bcf (3.78 bcf/d, 35%) forecast is for increases of 2.38 bcf/d Size of y/y production declines dropping at other basins and higher y/y increments elsewhere 9
10 Natural gas supply Rig productivity outpacing legacy losses New well productivity gains production per rig Production in bcf/d, Legacy losses, y/y change in production Bcf/d 10 8 Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) Bakken Niobrara Marcellus Permian Haynesville Eagle Ford Growth is driven by a number of factors: debottlenecking is having a big impact Legacy losses are up by 329 bcf (30 bcf/d, 10%) in
11 US gas exports Mexico as a source of demand Mexico: exports Bcf Additional Expected Project capacity bcf/ d start date Country Company Details Los Ramones 2.1 Q Mexico Ienova US Border (TX) to Los Ramones. Los Ramones P Mexico Pemex Los Ramones distribution network to five central Mexican states. Eagle Ford Shale Pipeline 2.1 Q4 14 US Net midstream Agua Dulce hub to near Rio Grande City on Mexican Border. FERC approval awarded. Northwest pipeline (Sonora) 0.76 Q4 14 Mexico Ienova Sasabe (US border, AZ) to Guayamas. Being built by Ienova. Sonora Pipeline P2 0.5 Q3 16 Mexico Ienova Link to the North-West pipleine at Guyamas to El Oro, Los Mochis (Sinaloa), connecting to El Encino And El Oro pipes. Ienova. Sierrita lateral 0.21 Q4 14 US Kinder Morgan Sasabe to Tuscon. Chihuahua corridor Mexico Fermaca Ciudad Juárez to El Encino. Completed. El Encino project 0.67 Q Mexico TransCanada Link from Chihuahua Corridor at El Encino to Topolobampo in Sinaloa. El Oro project 0.2 Q Mexico TransCanada Link from Mazatlan to El Oro potential connection with El Encino or with the Sonora pipeline. Norte crossing US Completed. Samalayuca lateral US Completed Others South Texas expanison 0.3 H2 14 US Gas from existing pipelines tied into Texas Texas Eastern Eastern's interconnection with Pemex at (Spectra) Reynosa. No update on any progress. Total 3.7 Imports in 2014-to-date are up y/y by 12.7 bcf (0.07 bcf/d, 3.8%) forecast is for increase of 0.20 bcf/d (10%) Pipeline capacity, underlying demand growth, the power sector and energy sector reform are all key maybe bcf/d of added demand by
12 US Imports Call on Canadian gas falling Canada: imports Bcf Canada: production Bcf US imports have fallen post-winter is down by 50 bcf y/y (-0.28 bcf/d, -3.8%) forecast is down by 0.56 bcf/d (-7.5%) Canadian production started the year off well 12
13 Natural gas trade LNG as demand, but not until 2016 LNG liquefaction terminals Project, St at e (Developer) United States LNG Terminals Export volumes Export st at us FERC Bcf/ d MTPA bcma FTA Non-FTA Approval Target start Sabine Pass, LA (Cheniere) Approved Approved Approved 2016 DOE Approved = 108 Mtpa (14 bcf/d) Freeport LNG, TX (Freeport LNG development) Approved Approved Approved 2018 Lake Charles Exports, LA (BG) Approved Approved Proposed 2019 DOE Applied = 330 Mtpa (43.4 bcf/d) Cove Point, MD (Dominion) Approved Approved Proposed 2017 Freeport LNG, TX (Freeport LNG development) Approved Approved Approved 2018 FERC Approved = 6.25 bcf/d Cameron LNG, LA (Sempra) Approved Aproved Approved 2018 Jordan Cove, OR (Jordan Cove Energy - Veresen Inc) Approved Approved Proposed 2019 Warrenton, OR (LNG Development) Approved Approved Proposed 2019 Corpus Christi, TX (Cheniere) Approved DOE review Proposed 2019 Lavaca Bay LNG, TX (Excelerate) Approved DOE review Proposed 2017 Only a selection of projects but 7-10 bcf/d of exports possible by
14 Natural gas trade LNG as an outlet for Canadian supply LNG liquefaction terminals Project, Province (Developer) Export volumes Export licence Target Bcf/ d MTPA bcm a start Canada LNG Term inals BC LNG - Douglas Channel, BC (LNG Partners) Approved 2016 Kitimat, BC (Apache, Chevron) Approved 2017 LNG Canada, BC (Shell, Mitsub., PetroCh., Kor. Gas) Approved n/ a Pacific North-West, BC (Petronas / Japan Petroleum) Approved 2019 Prince Rupert, BC (BG, Spectra) Approved 2021 WCC LNG (ExxonMobil, Imperial) Approved 2021 Woodfibre LNG Approved 2017 Prince Rupert Triton, BC (Idemitsu / Altagas) Approved n/ a Aurora LNG, BC (CNOOC, Inpex, JGC) Approved n/ a Kitsault LNG, BC Applied 2018 Goldboro LNG, Nova Scotia (Pieridae Energy) Applied 2019 Stewart Energy LNG, BC (Canada Stewart) Applied P1=2017 WesPac Midstream, BC Applied Steelhead LNG, BC (Steelhead) Applied 2022 Discovery LNG, BC, (Quicksilver) Applied 2021 * Canada'a NEB has also approved exports through the US based projects of Jordan Cove and Oregon LNG Approved Tot al Canada More direct equity stakes by big Asian players. Could see 3 bcf/d of exports by
15 How will the US gas market balance post 2020 Price gas out of power = 4 $/mmbtu Attract more rigs from oil = +6 /mmbtu Close the LNG arb window = HH to 3 $/mmbtu 15
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17 DISCLAIMER This publication has been prepared by Energy Aspects Ltd ( Energy Aspects ). It is provided to our clients for information purposes only, and Energy Aspects makes no express or implied warranties as to the merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use with respect to any data included in this publication Prices shown are indicative and Energy Aspects is not offering to buy or sell or soliciting offers to buy or sell any financial instrument Without limiting any of the foregoing and to the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Energy Aspects, nor any of their respective officers, directors, or employees have any liability for (a) any special, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages; or (b) any lost profits, lost revenue, loss of anticipated savings or loss of opportunity or other financial loss, even if notified of the possibility of such damages, arising from any use of this publication or its contents Other than disclosures relating to Energy Aspects, the information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources that Energy Aspects believes to be reliable, but Energy Aspects does not represent or warrant that it is accurate or complete. Energy Aspects is not responsible for, and makes no warranties whatsoever as to, the content of any third-party web site accessed via a hyperlink in this publication and such information is not incorporated by reference The views in this publication are those of the author(s) and are subject to change, and Energy Aspects has no obligation to update its opinions or the information in this publication. The analyst recommendations in this publication reflect solely and exclusively those of the author(s), and such opinions were prepared independently of any other interests, including those of Energy Aspects and/or its affiliates. This publication does not constitute personal investment advice or take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of the clients who receive it. The securities discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. Energy Aspects recommends that investors independently evaluate each issuer, security or instrument discussed herein and consult any independent advisors they believe necessary. The value of and income from any investment may fluctuate from day to day as a result of changes in relevant economic markets (including changes in market liquidity). The information herein is not intended to predict actual results, which may differ substantially from those reflected. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results This communication is directed at, and therefore should only be relied upon by, persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments Copyright Energy Aspects Ltd (2014). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any manner without the prior written permission of Energy Aspects 17
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