MTEP18 Futures. Planning Advisory Committee June 14, 2017
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1 MTEP18 Futures Planning Advisory Committee June 14, 2017
2 Overview Objective: Present final MTEP18 Futures and an overview of stakeholder feedback Key Takeaways: Four Futures to be used in MTEP18 to consider a range of fleet evolution as well as localized impacts of emerging technologies Twenty-eight unique stakeholder groups provided formal feedback through three rounds of review Overall support for range of MTEP18 Futures and uncertainty variables 2
3 MTEP18 Futures Development Timeline January PAC - Timeline and expectations February PAC - Review MTEP17 Futures - MISO proposed updates to MTEP17 Futures May PAC - Review April feedback - Updated Futures proposal June PAC - Finalize Futures definitions - Future weighting discussion September EPUG - Draft Futures results review October PAC - Final MTEP18 Futures results April Workshop - Review feedback & responses - Updated Futures proposal - Review uncertainty variables July PAC - Review siting methodology April PAC - Review workshop takeaways - Overview draft Futures August PAC - Future weighting 3
4 Siting Resource Technology Retirements General Twenty-eight stakeholder groups provided formal feedback on the MTEP18 Futures through three rounds of review May PAC Stakeholder Comment Summary MISO Response Support the four futures as proposed. Carbon reductions in AFC future are too high/too low DET should assume 50% of solar is distributed rather than 66% Support nuclear retirements in the DET Future Nuclear retirements should be included in the AFC Future instead of the DET Future Bifurcate nuclear retirement criteria for regulated and nonregulated nuclear units Work with asset owners to determine which nuclear units to retire Nuclear unit retirements should be based on economics Clarify coal retirement assumptions in the AFC future Provide additional details on modeling of storage resources Explain difference between MISO s proposed storage maturity curve and curve in Lazard s Levelized Cost of Storage Report Amend high solar maturity curve to be +25% of the base Include 2016 Illinois Renewable Portfolio Standard revision Expedite request for bus viability for DR, DG, and storage In the DET future, define a minimum amount of new gas generation that will replace retired thermal generation. MISO agrees with stakeholder majority that the futures reasonably bookend uncertainty. Given potential for future federal or state regulations, the proposed carbon reduction in AFC is an appropriate bookend. Given large degree of support as well as the goal of the DET Future, MISO will maintain the 66% of solar as distributed assumption. MISO believes carbon neutral resources are less likely to be retired in a future with a carbon constraint. MISO agrees with stakeholder comments that the DET future is suitable for nuclear retirements. MISO s proposed methodology is based on publically available data. Based on stakeholder feedback, nuclear units proposed for retirement have been posted with June PAC meeting materials for stakeholder review. Coal unit generation will be limited to the six highest energy months for five years before retirement date. Details for specific units are posted with June PAC meeting materials for stakeholder review. MISO will include an agenda item during the July 14 Economic Planning Users Group meeting to discuss modeling of storage resources MISO combined the LI Energy and LI Power unit data as well as stakeholder feedback. The maturity curve has been vetted with Lazard. MISO has updated high maturity curve. MISO will include this revision in MTEP18 models MISO agrees and the top load bus workbook is posted for with June PAC materials for stakeholder review. The DET siting methodology prioritizes local generation replacement at retirement sites. MISO will also verify that zonal capacity diversity is maintained during siting process. The magnitude, type, and timing of capacity additions will be determined by resource forecasting process (i.e. EGEAS). 4
5 MTEP18 Futures Key Assumptions MTEP 2018 Future Demand and Energy Fuel Prices Demand Side Additions 1 By Year 2032 Renewable Targets By Year 2032 (% Wind and Solar Energy) Generation Retirements 2 By Year 2032 Limited Fleet Change Low (10/90) High LRZ9 Industrial Gas: Base -30% Coal: Base -3% EE: - DR: 3 GW Continued Fleet Change Base (50/50) Base EE: 1 GW DR: 4 GW Accelerated Fleet Change High (90/10) Low LRZ9 Industrial Gas: Base +30% Coal: Base EE: 7 GW DR: 7 GW Distributed & Emerging Technology Base + EV Energy: 1.1% Demand: 0.6% Base EE: 1+ GW DR: 4+ GW + 2 GW Storage 10% 15% 26% 20% Coal: 9 GW Gas/Oil: 17 GW Coal: 17 GW Gas/Oil: 17 GW Coal: 17 GW+ Gas/Oil: 17 GW Coal: 17 GW Gas/Oil: 17 GW Nuclear: 5 GW 4 CO 2 Reduction Constraint From Current Levels by 2032 None None 20% None Siting Methodology 3 MTEP Standard MTEP Standard MTEP Standard Localized EV: Electric Vehicles EE: Energy Efficiency DR: Demand Response 1. Demand Side Additions are estimates based off MTEP17 results - actual results may change. Energy efficiency values adjusted to alleviate over-estimation with demand forecast 2. In Accelerated Fleet Change Scenario 17 GW of coal will be retired. In addition, 8 GW of coal dispatched seasonally and must-run removed on all units. 3. Localized renewable siting assumes that at least 50% of incremental wind and solar energy will be sourced within each Local Resource Zone. Two thirds of solar is sited as distributed. 4. Assumes nuclear licenses renewals not granted unless plant had a recent and significant update 5
6 Feedback Request and Next Steps Feedback Request: Bus-Specific Viability For Demand Response, Distributed Solar, and Storage Siting Requesting Transmission Owners, Load Serving Entities, and/or States to review top load buses and indicate buses not viable for siting certain resources Retirement Assumptions by Future Requesting Transmission Owners, Load Serving Entities, and/or States to review assumed unit retirements and dates Feedback request forms & spreadsheets posted with meeting materials Feedback requested by July 14 to All feedback considered public unless specified otherwise Next Steps MTEP Future weighting process discussed at June and August PAC Current MTEP siting process and draft proposal for MTEP19 Siting Workshops reviewed at July PAC MTEP18 Resource Forecast results reviewed at September Economic Planning Users Group and October PAC 6
7 Appendix 1: MTEP18 Futures Narratives and Uncertainty Matrix
8 Limited Fleet Change Existing generation fleet remains relatively static without significant drivers of change. Policy environment encourages coal generation to remain online, but some thermal fleet reductions are expected as units reach the end of useful life. Renewable additions are driven solely by current Renewable Portfolio Standards under low demand & energy growth rates. Footprint wide, demand & energy growth rates are low; however, as a result of low natural gas prices, industrial production along the Gulf Coast increases. Natural gas prices are low due to increased well productivity and supply chain efficiencies along with low demand & energy. Low demand & energy and natural gas prices reduce the demand for and economic viability of new generation technologies. Policy environment encourages baseload generation to remain online. Thermal generation retirements that do occur are driven by unit useful life limits. Nuclear units are assumed to have license renewals granted and remain online. Lower levels of demand-side management programs are assumed due to low demand & energy. 8
9 Continued Fleet Change The fleet evolution trends of the past decade continue. Coal retirements reflect historical retirement levels based on average age of retirement. Renewable additions continue to exceed current Renewable Portfolio Standard Requirements as a result of economics, public appeal, and the potential for future policy changes. Natural gas reliance increases as a result of new capacity needed to replace retired coal capacity. Demand and energy growth rates are modeled at a level equivalent to a 50/50 forecast. Natural gas prices are consistent with industry long-term reference forecasts. Renewable additions continue following current trends and serve 15% of MISO energy by Maturity cost curves for renewable resources reflect some advancement in technology and supply chain efficiencies. Oil and gas generators retired in the year the useful life limit is reached. Coal units will be retired reflecting age and historical retirements beyond age limits. Nuclear units are assumed to have license renewals granted and remain online. Demand-side management programs modeled to reflect growth and technical potential of current programs. 9
10 Accelerated Fleet Change A robust economy with increased demand & energy drives higher natural gas prices. Carbon regulations targeting a 20% reduction from current levels are enacted in response to increased demand & energy, driving coal to both retirement and decreased production. Increased renewable additions are driven beyond renewable portfolio standards by need for new generation, technological advancement, and carbon regulation. Natural gas reliance increases as a result of new capacity needs driven by the need to replace retired capacity and provide flexibility to support the integration of intermittent renewable resources. Demand & energy grows at a high rate due to a robust economy; however, as a result of high natural gas prices, industrial production along the Gulf Coast decreases. Natural gas prices are high due to increased demand. Retirements, economics, and potential regulations drive renewable additions. Maturity cost curves for renewable technologies applied reflecting advancement in technologies. Oil and gas generators will be retired in the year the age limit is reached. Coal units will be retired reflecting age, economics, and policy constraints. Carbon regulation reduces likelihood of nuclear unit retirements, so they are assumed to have license renewals granted and remain online. A 20% carbon reduction for current levels is modeled to reflect future national or state-level carbon regulation. High demand & energy levels and carbon regulation drive greater potential for demand-side management programs. 10
11 Distributed and Emerging Technology Fleet evolution trends continue, primarily driven by local policies and emerging technology adoption. State level policies reflect desires for local reliability and optionality. Mid-level coal retirements reflect economics and age limits. Nuclear unit licenses are not renewed due to trends toward distributed resources and resulting economics. Increased renewable additions are driven by favorable economics resulting from technological advancements, particularly for solar resources, and state-level renewable portfolio standards and goals. Demand and energy forecast begins at level equivalent to a 50/50 forecast and has high growth rate to reflect adoption of electric vehicle technology on a broader scale. Natural gas prices are consistent with industry long-term reference forecasts. Generation siting shows a strong preference for localized energy and capacity self-sufficiency within state jurisdictions. Maturity cost curves for renewable technologies applied reflecting advancement in technologies and supply-chain efficiencies. Renewable additions reach about 20% of MISO energy by 2032 Increased deployment of energy storage devices driven by economies of scale resulting from commercial mass production of lithium ion batteries and other viable technologies. Oil and gas generators will be retired in the year the age limit is reached. Coal units will be retired reflecting age and economics. Nuclear unit licenses are not renewed, unless unit has had recent significant investment, which results in 5 GW of nuclear retirements over the study period. Demand-side management programs grow in scale and scope due to technological advancement and economies of scale. 11
12 Coal CC CT Nuclear Wind Onshore IGCC IGCC w/ CCS CC w/ CCS Pumped Storage Hydro Battery Storage (Lithium Ion) Compressed Air Energy Storage Photovoltaic Biomass Conventional Hydro Wind Offshore Demand Response Level Energy Efficiency Level Demand Growth Rate Energy Growth Rate Natural Gas Forecast Oil Coal Uranium Oil Coal Uranium Retirements Renewable Portfolio Standards MTEP18 Futures Matrix Uncertainties Capital Costs Demand and Energy Fuel Cost (Starting Price) Fuel Escalations Emission Costs Other Variables Future Limited Fleet Change M M M M H M M M M M M H M M M L L L L L M L M M M M - M - M L L Continued Fleet M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M - M - M M M Change Distributed and M M M M M M M M M M M L M M M M M M + H + M M M M M M M - M - M M M + Emerging Accelerated Fleet M M M M L M M M M M M L M M M H H H H H M M M M M M - M H M H H Change SO2 NOx CO2 Inflation 12
13 MTEP18 Uncertainty Variables Uncertainty Unit Low (L) Mid (M) High (H) Coal ($/KW) 2,820 3,760 4,700 CC ($/KW) 812 1,082 1,353 CT ($/KW) ,156 Nuclear ($/KW) 4,431 5,908 7,385 Wind-Onshore 1 ($/KW) 1,757 1,757 1,757 IGCC ($/KW) 3,026 4,035 5,044 IGCC w/ CCS ($/KW) 5,285 7,046 8,808 CC w/ CCS ($/KW) 1,688 2,250 2,813 Pumped Storage Hydro ($/KW) 4,108 5,477 6,846 Battery Storage (Lithium Ion) 1,9 ($/KW) Compressed Air Energy Storage ($/KW) 971 1,295 1,619 Photovoltaic AC 1 New Generation Capital Costs 1 ($/KW) 2,203 2,203 2,203 Biomass ($/KW) 2,951 3,934 4,918 Conventional Hydro ($/KW) 2,953 3,937 4,921 Demand and Energy Baseline 20-Year Demand Growth Rate 2 % 0.2% 0.5% (.6% in DET) 0.7% Baseline 20-Year Energy Growth Rate 3 % 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% (1.1% in DET) Demand Response & Energy Efficiency Levels - EE trimmed by estimated Mandates & Goals % AEG Low Growth AEG Existing Programs Plus AEG CPP 111(d) Case Natural Gas Natural Gas 4 ($/MMBtu) Forecast-30% Combined NYMEX, EIA, and Wood Mackenzie Forecast +30% 13
14 MTEP18 Uncertainty Variables, cont 1 All costs are overnight construction costs in 2017 dollars; sourced from NREL Annual Technology Baseline 2016; H and L values are 25% +/- from the M value, except Wind & Solar which follow NREL ATB cost maturity curves for M value and achieve 25% lower than the 2025 value and beyond for L and stay flat in real dollars for the H. 2 Mid values for years 1-10 of demand growth are derived from Module-E; Years are extrapolated; H & L values are derived using LFU metric. Add.5% EV growth for DET Future 3 Energy values are calculated using Module E, the corresponding demand forecast and historical load factors. Add.5% EV growth for DET Future 4 NYMEX, EIA, and Wood Mackenzie 5 Powerbase default for oil is $9.87/MMBtu 6 Powerbase range for coal is $1 to $4, with an average value of $1.84/MMBtu 7 Tonnage limit applies all units evenly. Reduction is from 2016 emission levels. 8 Lazard used for Li Ion battery costs and maturity curve terial/stakeholder/workshops%20and%20special%20meetings/2 015/DR%20EE%20DG%20Workshops/ / %20 DR%20EE%20DG%20Potential%20Study.pdf Uncertainty Unit Low (L) Mid (M) High (H) Oil ($/MMBtu) Powerbase default 5 Coal ($/MMBtu) Powerbase default -3% Powerbase default 6 Uranium ($/MMBtu) Powerbase default Oil % 2.5% Coal % 2.5% Uranium % 2.5% NO x ($/ton) Annual $155 Seasonal $300 CO 2 (T ons) 7 20% by 2030 Inflation % 2.5 Retirements MW Renewable Portfolio Standards % Cost Maturity Curves % Fuel Prices (Starting Values) Fuel Prices (Escalation Rates) Emissions Costs/Constraints Other Variables Age-related oil/gas (55 years) & coal (65 years) State Mandates and goals More aggressive than NREL ATB, achieving -25% by 2025 Age-related oil/gas (55 years) & coal (60 years), 35% of nuclear in DET 15% energy from wind and solar (20% in DET, emphasis on solar Based on NREL ATB Age-related oil/gas (55 years) & coal (60 years, reduced operation) 26% energy from wind and solar Less aggressive than NREL ATB 14
15 References Additional information on the MTEP18 Futures can be found in the following meeting materials: May 17 Planning Advisory Committee MTEP18 Futures April 19 Planning Advisory Committee MTEP18 Futures April 4 MTEP 18 Futures Development Workshop March 15 Planning Advisory Committee MTEP18 Futures February 15 Planning Advisory Committee MTEP18 Futures January 18 Planning Advisory Committee MTEP18 Futures 15
16 Appendix 3: Capital Cost Maturity Curves
17 MTEP18 Combined Cycle and Combustion Turbine Capital Costs $/kw $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 $850 $ CT Real 2017 CC Real 2017 Maturity curves sourced from NREL ATB 2016: 17
18 $/kw Proposed MTEP18 Solar Capital Costs $2,500 $2,300 $2,100 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $ Real 2017 Low Real High Real Mid ( Real 2017 ) maturity curve sourced from sourced NREL ATB 2016: High and low maturity curves are +/- 25% in 2025 of mid maturity curve 18
19 $/kw MTEP18 Wind Capital Costs $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1, Real 2017 Low Real High Real Mid ( Real 2017 ) maturity curve sourced from sourced NREL ATB 2016: Low maturity curve is - 25% in 2025 of mid maturity curve High maturity curve follows NREL learning curve for the first 5 years then remains flat for the remaining years. 19
20 $/KWh MTEP18 Storage (Li Ion) Capital Cost $700 $650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $ Maturity curve based on LAZARD s Levelized Cost of Storage Report Version 2.0: Technology assumes an average of Energy and Power which results in 4% cost reduction for the first 5 years, followed by a 1% cost reduction thereon 20
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