Robert Straumann. Exporting Pollution? Calculating the embodied emissions in trade for Norway. 2003/17 Rapporter Reports

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1 2003/17 Rapporter Reports Robert Straumann Exportng Polluton? Calculatng the emboded emssons n trade for Norway Statstsk sentralbyrå Statstcs Norway Oslo Kongsvnger

2 Rapporter Reports I denne seren publseres statstske analyser, metode- og modellbeskrvelser fra de enkelte forsknngs- og statstkkområder. Også resultater av ulke enkeltundersøkelser publseres her, oftest med utfyllende kommentarer og analyser. Ths seres contans statstcal analyses and method and model descrptons from the dfferent research and statstcs areas. Results of varous sngle surveys are also publshed here, usually wth supplementary comments and analyses. Statstcs Norway, September 2003 When usng materal from ths publcaton, please gve Statstcs Norway as your source. ISBN Prnted verson ISBN Electronc verson ISSN Emnegruppe Desgn: Enzo Fnger Desgn Trykk: Statstsk sentralbyrå/200 Standardtegn tabeller Symbols n tables Symbol Tall kan kke forekomme Category not applcable. Oppgave mangler Data not avalable.. Oppgave mangler foreløpg Data not yet avalable... Tall kan kke offentlggjøres Not for publcaton : Null Nl - Mndre enn 0,5 av den brukte enheten Mndre enn 0,05 av den brukte enheten Less than 0.5 of unt employed 0 Less than 0.05 of unt employed 0,0 Foreløpg tall Provsonal or prelmnary fgure * Brudd den loddrette seren Break n the homogenety of a vertcal seres Brudd den vannrette seren Break n the homogenety of a horzontal seres Desmalsklletegn Decmal punctuaton mark,(.)

3 Abstract Robert Straumann Exportng Polluton? Calculatng the emboded emssons n trade for Norway Reports 2003/17 Statstcs Norway 2003 Economc actvty causes to varyng degree polluton to ar, sol and water. The polluton that s caused by the producton of a sngle unt of a certan commodty can be sad to be emboded n the commodty. Ths approach allows us to nvestgate envronmental ssues from a consumpton-centred perspectve, and ths s especally mportant n the case where the emboded polluton n a certan commodty s not restrcted to the country where the commodty s consumed. In ths thess, I present some possble approaches to measure the emssons emboded n the exports and mports of dfferent commodtes. The ndcator whch I focus on, the so-called Polluton Terms of Trade s presented n the second chapter, and ts man features s dscussed and I also propose several possble applcatons. The ndcator s based on trade data and emsson ntenstes n the producton of dfferent commodtes, and I pay partcular attenton to the mportance of usng country-specfc ntenstes n order to capture the total emboded emssons n trade. In the thrd chapter I calculate the ndcator for the case of Norway, and fnd sgnfcant dfferences n the balance of emssons n trade for dfferent pollutants. The mportance of the ol ndustry, as well as ocean transport, for Norwegan exports greatly affects the results, especally n the case of pollutants lke NO X and NMVOC. The technology effect s also sgnfcant n some cases, as expected. In the fourth chapter I dscuss the mpacts of trade on the envronment, and present a theoretcal model to llustrate some of these ssues. I also use data from an earler general equlbrum study to assess the effects of a certan shft n trade polcy on the Polluton Terms of Trade. I fnd that as the net mport of agrcultural goods ncreases, the balance of emboded emssons n trade mproves to a great deal when t comes to pollutants lke CH 4 and NH 3. The effects are both postve and negatve n terms of the PTTI, dependng on type Acknowledgement: I would lke to thank my man tutor, Taran Fæhn for nvaluable gudance throughout the process. In addton I would lke to thank Jon Strand, Annegrete Bruvoll and Brger Strøm for useful comments and nformaton. Several other staff at Statstcs Norway have also been helpful n the process of collectng data, and the nsttuton has provded me wth a excellent work envronment. The study has been fnanced by Statstcs Norway and The Norwegan Research Councl (The RAMBU program). 3

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5 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? Contents 1. Introducton Motvatng the paper The ndex and how to calculate t The Polluton Terms of Trade - defnton Possble applcatons of the ndex Prevous studes My approach and techncaltes regardng the PTTI Theoretcal approach Techncal ssues Results Trade lberalsaton and the ETT Introducton A model study - renterpreted Changes n the emsson terms of trade Conclusons References Data sources Appendx A A. Emsson factors...29 B. Commodtes n the MSG-model...30 Tdlgere utgtt på emneområdet De sst utgtte publkasjonene seren Rapporter

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7 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? 1. Introducton 1.1. Motvatng the paper In many cases, economc actvty has mportant envronmental sde effects that are external to the economc agents causng them. Many producton processes create dfferent knds of waste or harmful emssons, or nvolves depleton of natural resources not prced n the markets. Such b-products of ndustral and other economc actvty can n turn gve rse to so-called external effects such as health problems caused by harmful emssons, changes n the global clmate due to GHG-emssons and ecologcal collapse followng resource exhauston. A major contrbuton from the economcs professon to the envronmental debate has been the attempts to quantfy these effects n monetary terms, that s the amount of economc damage they cause. One mportant example was the work of several economsts n the aftermath of the Exxon Valdez ncdent, where the economc damage of ol splls n a fragle envronment were assessed. 1 Another major feld of study has been the calculaton of abatement costs for dfferent levels of polluton. Ths thess wll focus on the lnk between economc actvty and polluton, and partcularly emssons to ar. From emssons data t s also possble to calculate the amount of emssons emboded n the end product, whch s the polluton load (Muradan et al. 2002) caused by the producton of a sngle unt of the commodty. In most cases, only envronmental effects of the domestc producton processes are beng consdered, gnorng that consumpton of mported goods may have smlar effects n the exportng country. In addton, the producton of these commodtes may nduce emssons of greenhouse gases or transboundary pollutants n whch case several countres share the envronmental load. Muradan et al. (2002) argue for a consumptoncentred rather than a producton-centred perspectve: f consumpton s assumed as the key 1 See: Carson, Rchard et al. A Contngent Valuaton Study of Lost Passve Use Values Resultng From the Exxon Valdez Ol Spll. Report to the Attorney General of the State of Alaska, prepared by Natural Resources Damage Assessment, Inc. La Jolla, Calforna: economc force "steerng" the envronmental transformaton, the assessment of the envronmental performance of a natonal economy requres us to make the dstncton between envronmental costs borne and caused by a naton, and therefore, to expand the scale of analyss beyond the natonal poltcal fronters. In other words, such a consumpton-centred vew of the lnk between producton actvty and the envronment, whch regard the demand for the products as the ndrect cause of the envronmental costs borne by the producng countres, s approprate n several cases. Acknowledgng that domestc economc actvty s lnked to the global market, and contrbutes to global polluton both drectly and ndrectly, the scale of the problem can be dffcult to assess. The complexty of the global economy create a problem when t comes to quantfcaton of the envronmental effects of trade, and the most common approach n recent lterature seems to be the emboded emssons approach. The basc prncple s that one unt of a certan commodty consumed has a certan amount of emssons that orgnates from the producton of the commodty. Followng the emboded emssons n trade, t s possble to fnd the envronmental load caused by a naton, relatve to the envronmental load t actually carres. Instead of concentratng on the actual sources of polluton, the actual polluton demand s beng addressed through the end-users, the consumers. Some prevous papers have tred to assess these effects, proposng several knds of ndcators that show the relatve envronmental load n trade for a certan country, one of the most nfluental s the Polluton Terms of Trade (PTTI). (Antweler (1996)) Ths ndex conssts of a technologcal and a composton component, where both components can be solated. In addton to emssons from producton actvtes, whch accordng to ths vew s ndrectly caused by consumpton, emssons can also drectly from consumpton actvtes, the obvous example beng combuston of fuel. From a producton-centred perspectve, one could argue that drect emssons from consumpton should be vewed as a result of the provson of petrol and fuel ol, and thus be assgned to 7

8 Exportng Polluton? Reports 2003/17 the producng countres. Ths study, however, focuses on the possble envronmental dsplacement load from trade, whch n the case of emssons from drect consumpton actvty s non-exstent. My man contrbuton relatve to prevous studes of PTTI, or related measures, s to quantfy the technologcal component,.e. the dfferences n emsson ntenstes between countres. Whle ths effect s recognsed as mportant n theoretcal dscussons, the emprcal mportance has not yet been calculated. I wll present these calculatons for the Norwegan case. As emssons related to both export and mport have to be computed, I have used emssons and economc data to calculate dfferent sets of ntenstes for all sgnfcant trade partners for Norway. In ths manner, both the technologcal component and the composton component of the PTTI are captured. Prevous studes have only been able to calculate the composton component, thereby gnorng any dfferences n producton technology between countres. In the second part of the thess, the PTTI s appled to changes n Norwegan trade polcy durng the 1990 s based on an earler CGE study (Fæhn and Holmøy 2000). Ths s to show an example of a feld of study where ths ndcator can be valuable. I wll also dscuss possble applcatons and extensons of ths framework. 8

9 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? 2. The ndex and how to calculate t 2.1. The Polluton Terms of Trade - defnton The term "polluton terms of trade" was ntroduced by Antweler (1996), as he proposed an ndex for measurng the emboded polluton n trade, and others have further nvestgated the concept. For a certan country (the home country) t s defned as: polluton content of exports PTTI = polluton content of mports The polluton content s defned as the emssons assocated wth producton of mport or export commodtes. The polluton content of mports for the home country s defned by: C n c= 1 = 1 IMPc IMPTOT E Y c c, where = sector and c = country (excludng the home country). IMPTOT refers to total mports to the country, E s emssons and Y s output. Smlarly, but slghtly more easy to calculate, one defnes polluton content of exports: n = 1 EXP EXPTOT EDOM YDOM, where EDOM and YDOM are the domestc emssons and output. It s easy to see from ths decomposton of the ndex that both the trade pattern (frst factor n both the polluton content concepts) and the emsson ntenstes (second factor), determne the value of the PTTI. The ndex can be calculated for any emssons of whch data are avalable. One mportant qualty of the ndex s that t combnes several features that can explan emssons lnked to nternatonal trade flows, and put t nto one ndex. Frstly, the degree of envronmentally frendly technology s represented n the emssons ntenstes, that s the amount of emssons pr. unt produced. Dfferences n ths technology component (TC) are lkely to cause dfferences n emssons across countres. Secondly, the ndex takes nto account that ndustres vary accordng to polluton ntensty, whch n many cases correspond to ther energy ntensty. The PTTI s a measure of emboded polluton n trade, thus the export and mport patterns represent ths composton component (CC) Possble applcatons of the ndex Accordng to Antweler(1996), the ndex "measures the envronmental gans or losses that a country sustans from engagng n nternatonal trade." Envronmental gans n ths sense s when the polluton ntensty of the country's mports are hgher than that of ts export, both because of technologcal and compostonal features of domestc and foregn producton. If a country mports a certan commodty rather than make t domestcally, and producton of ths commodty s hghly pollutve, one can say that the country receve an envronmental gan from ths acton. The country has shfted the polluton source abroad, but stll mports the commodty that causes the polluton. Polces that encourage such a shft, whch some would call "eco-dumpng", are favourable for the frst country n an envronmental sense, but they are a way of passng on the problem of polluton wthout reducng consumpton possbltes. Stll, such a stuaton could be caused by well-meant polces, such as "green" taxes. It s clear that ths concept of "envronmental gans" from trade s only vald when we look at pollutants wth purely local mpact. Emssons of any greenhouse gas or acdfyng gases has global or at least regonal mpacts, so "envronmental gans" may be a msleadng term when studyng these pollutants. It s mportant to note that the PTTI s a relatve measure, n the way that a large quantty of emboded polluton n exports can stll lead to a low value of the ndcator, provded that the emboded polluton n mports are even larger. A country wth pollutonntensve export ndustres can stll dsplay a low PTTI, f ts mports are smlarly "drty". For ths reason, the ndcator s not a good absolute measure of the 9

10 Exportng Polluton? Reports 2003/17 polluton mpact of a country, not domestcally nor foregn. A country wth low PTTI may have hgh emssons ntenstes n producton, but ts trade partners are even worse. One mportant feature of the ndex s that t llustrates that domestc consumpton behavour has envronmental consequences beyond the natonal level (Muradan et al 2002). An ncrease n mports leads to greater envronmental load on the exportng country n the case of polluton wth merely local mpact, whle n the case of greenhouse gases; an ncrease n mports has global consequences, even though natonal emssons are unchanged. In ths way, the PTTI shows the strong relatonshp between consumpton and emssons, and gves ndcatons on whether a country's domestc emssons are smaller or larger than the emssons actually caused by domestc consumpton. In nternatonal poltcal debate, the focus s on the amount of emssons wthn the natonal borders, manly because ths s the smplest way to address the problem and the way t s usually accounted n statstcal sources. The PTTI can be a step on the way to a more consumpton-centred perspectve, whch n my opnon s more sensble, especally when dealng wth transboundary pollutants. Another nterpretaton of the ndex may be as a relatve measure of envronmental performance n comparson wth the country's trade partners, that s, as a trade-weghted polluton ntensty rate. In ths context, the country wth the lowest PTTI has succeeded the most n reducng emssons from ts exports relatve to the same attanment of ts tradepartners, ether through ts composton or through technologcal progress. The ndex does compare a country's emssons ntensty n domestc export producton to that of foregners' export to the same country. It s stll not a good measure for envronmental performance. One man reason s that the emsson ntenstes are weghted wth trade, not wth producton or consumpton patterns, as would be more relevant to envronmental performance. As stated above; wth a consumpton-based perspectve a reducton n PTTI can just as well be seen as evdence that the country to a greater extent mports "drty" goods that used to be produced domestcally. There s one major problem wth rankng countres by ther PTTI. It s true that a low value on the ndcator s evdence of a relatvely lower polluton content n domestc export producton than that of mports, but on the other hand, a hgh PTTI may be caused by an overrepresentaton of hgh-polluton ndustres n domestc export producton, smply as a result of comparatve advantages or abundance of natural resources. The last case could represent a hghly developed country, employng all avalable technology n order to reduce emssons, but the nature of the producton wll nevtably lead to a hgh polluton content n exports, smply because of energy requrements or use of raw materals. The opposte case would be a country largely dependent on exports of less polluton-ntensve goods or servces, whle mportng "drty" goods. Ther use of emssonsreducng technology may be small; even so they would have a low PTTI. Herendeen (1994) call attenton to Japan as a country that s largely dependent on mport of non-renewable resources and would therefore fall nto ths category. Changes n the ndex over tme could be nvestgated smply by employng tme seres of emssons and economc data. Whle ths s more of a data analyss approach, t s lkely that mportant conclusons could be drawn from such a data materal, especally f varables lke general technology level or energy prces are accounted for. A key ssue n ths knd of analyss would be to determne whch ndustres got "cleaner" over tme, and to what degree changes n the trade pattern has an effect on the ndcator. Several possble approaches could be consdered, frstly one could look at actual changes n the PTTI over a gven tme perod, and dscuss ths n accordance wth exstng theory on envronment and economc developement. The Envronmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothess 2 predcts that the relatonshp between economc development and the envronmental degradaton follows an nverted U- shaped curve, wth a ncrease n for example emssons n an early development phase, whle the level of emssons decrease as the economc development goes beyond a certan pont. A great number of econometrc and other studes tryng to fnd evdence of the EKC hypothess have found turnng ponts that support the theory, but the results are not unanmous. A revew of several studes s found n Stagl (1999) and Strand (2002). The theoretcal foundaton of the hypothess s often centred on the followng three elements: Composton of consumpton: One of the man characterstcs of development n the last 100 years, and partcularly post-wwii, has been the shftng from consumpton of goods to the consumpton of servces. Whle most ncome just 50 years ago was spent on food, clothng and housng, the modern consumer spends a larger porton on transport servces, entertanment and other servces. A recent Norwegan report 3 fnds that we spend more on cultural servces than on food. One postve sde effect of ths development s that servces, due to low resource ntensty, contrbute less to polluton 2 The Kuznets curve was orgnally proposed as the relatonshp between economc development and ncome equalty. It was named after 1971 Nobel laureate Smon Kuznets 3 Norwegan Consumpton Accounts, Statstcs Norway (2003) 10

11 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? than producton of tradtonal goods. In ths way, the shftng of consumpton from goods to servces leads to a lower average emsson ntensty, and may partly explan the EKC. Employment of new technology: Technologcal development may nclude more effcent use of natural resources, partcularly when t comes to energy. Economc development s drven partly by the wsh to get more welfare for a gven amount of resources, therefore energy-effcent technologes wll be employed when energy become scarce enough for the technology to be proftable. Agan, a postve sde effect of ths s a reducton n emsson ntensty n the ndustres that nstall new technology. Such technology may also nclude recyclng, new uses for materals that otherwse would be pollutants and so on. Poltcal preference: As countres become more developed, and materal welfare ncreases, some argue that the next step would be a greater "demand" for a clean envronment. It s beleved that the demand for "nature and envronment" has an ncome elastcty greater than one, that s, they are "luxury" goods. As ncomes grow, more people express ths demand n the form of poltcal pressure and smply by votng for poltcans wth an envronmentally frendly program. The result may be strcter envronmental regulatons and mposton of "green" taxes. A tme seres applcaton of the PTTI for a sngle country, ether a smple data analyss or a more formal statstcal analyss can be used to test the valdty of the EKC-hypothess. By combnng tme seres and cross secton data, a more dynamc pcture can be drawn of the development of polluton flows between countres. In some cases, an envronmental gan n one country may as well be offset by the correspondng loss of another, leavng the world as a whole wth zero gan. The "gans and losses" are determned by both the technologcal and the trade composton effect, thus the PTTI captures these developments. Combnng PTTI calculatons wth model smulatons s another possble applcaton, whch s rarely used n the lterature. In ths way, t may be possble to assess the effects on PTTI of the hypotheses underlyng the EKC. Bruvoll and Fæhn (2003) nvestgate the effects of endogenous changes n poltcal preferences on emssons related to the Norwegan trade flows. Other subjects could be the changes n PTTI followng technology shfts or shfts n demand for servces, as economes grow. The EKC hypothess predcts that ths wll lower overall emsson ntenstes. The changes n PTTI wll ndcate whether emssons from domestc producton develop n the same way as emssons caused by domestc consumpton. Numerous other themes that may well be nvestgated wth these tools, ncludng nternatonal agreements or other polcy nstruments and ther effect on the PTTI. The case of trade agreements s dscussed n the second part of ths paper. It s mportant to note that a tme seres or model smulaton approach to the PTTI may have a certan drawback, connected to the fact that trade balances are seldom constant over tme. If we look at the net polluton flow, defned by: POLFLOW = n = 1 EXP EDOM YDOM C n c= 1 = 1 IMP It s clear that ths measure s affected by the balance n trade n the way that a large trade defct typcally leads to a large nflow of polluton emboded n trade, whle a large trade surplus comes wth a large outflow of polluton emboded n trade. In order to secure a balanced economc development, trade defcts wll sooner or later have to be followed by trade surpluses, and for ths reason the net polluton s not a good measure for emboded emssons n trade, snce the choce of year(s) of examnaton s crucal for the result. It s "not very meanngful because t s merely a reflecton of trade balances" (Antweler 1996) 4. Even though the PTTI, as a relatve measure, elmnates the problems occurrng when usng the actual polluton flow, fluctuatons n the balance between exports and mports over tme s lkely to have an effect on the composton of trade as well. A good example s Norway, at present enjoyng large trade surpluses from ol exports, whle the predcton s that ol producton and thereby exports wll fall consderably n the next 50 years, turnng the trade balance nto a defct. A sde effect of the declne n ol exports wll be a declne n ol-related emssons such as NMVOC. A man advantage wth the PTTI s that t s relatvely easy to nterpret. A low value (or more specfcally; smaller than one) of the ndex suggests mports have relatvely larger polluton content than domestc producton, and vce versa. Ths ndcates that the domestc consumpton s supported by foregn producton wth hgher polluton ntensty than the correspondng polluton ntensty of domestc producton for consumpton abroad. We therefore gan envronmentally by engagng n ths trade. The fact that the results are so easly nterpreted gves the PTTI the advantage of beng presentable for a larger audence, even though the results does not gve specfc normatve suggestons on further acton. 4 Correctng for the mbalances n trade s a possble way to avod ths problem, but a "corrected" trade composton s lkely to be affected by the choce of reference year(s) c E Y c c 11

12 Exportng Polluton? Reports 2003/ Prevous studes Antwelers ntroducton of the concept Antweler (1996) uses a model wth C countres, I ndustres and F nput factors, ndexed by ther lower cases. Input factors represent the dfferent pollutants. Country c's net exports s defned by the vector: T c = X c M c, where X s exports and M s mports. Usng a technology vector A c, we get the polluton content of exports per unt of exports: X A c X c Fc, jix c where j I = (1,1,...,1) Smlarly calculatng the polluton content of mports per unt of mports: F M c j c A M I j j M c cj Antweler also defnes a vector of polluton weghts W, n order to compare the dfferent pollutants and be able to combne them nto one ndcator. Usng the defntons above, t s then possble to construct the Polluton Terms of Trade: PTTI = 100 c WF WF X c M c Antweler has made several assumptons when computng the PTTI. Frst, he uses a set of weghts W based on US emssons data, whch s based towards gas emssons and reflects the polluton pattern of ndustral countres. Hs man argument for ths assumpton s that gas emssons tend to have more transboundary effects than other types of emssons and therefore should receve a larger weght n the ndex. The concept of ths weght matrx s backed by an assumpton that the envronmental and thus economcal mpact of a one unt emsson of a certan materal can be compared wth one unt emsson of a dfferent materal. In the case of greenhouse gases, some have argued upon a set of so-called GWPndcators (Global Warmng Potental), whch s used to measure several types of emssons n CO 2 - equvalents, a common ndcator of the total greenhouse effect. Whle the use of GWP-weghts or smlar weghts for the dfferent mpacts of emssons gves us the presentatonal advantage of an ndex embracng several types of emssons, these sets of weghts wll be somewhat controversal n the sense that they often lack clear emprcal backng 5. The W matrx used by Antweler s prmarly a techncal constructon based on some smple assumptons, and can be seen as a llustraton of a possble calculaton method, but t wll clearly not be suffcent even as an approxmaton. Secondly, Antweler assumes dentcal technologes for all countres, usng US emssons data to calculate a technology vector A, that s used wth trade data for the dfferent countres n order to calculate the PTTI. The reason for ths s manly lack of data materal for several countres. Assumng dentcal emssons ntenstes, he s only able to measure the compostonal effects of trade, excludng any dfferences n envronmental performance due to level of technology. Ths s a major lmtaton wth hs study, as he also notes. However, a pont s beng made that dentcal technologes s a common assumpton n trade theory and that composton of trade may be the most mportant n determnng the value of the PTTI. The results themselves show that ndustralzed countres are more lkely to have a large PTTI, thus havng larger polluton content n exports than mports. Developng countres tend to have a low PTTI, ndcatng low polluton ntensty n exports. One has to bear n mnd, as mentoned above, that these calculatons are based on the assumpton of dentcal technology, and t s realstc that correctng for dfferent technology wll lower the PTTI for ndustralzed countres and vce versa for developng countres. Ths predcton s based upon the fact that developed countres are more lkely to use energyeffcent technology 6 and possbly also mpose stronger envronmental regulatons on ndustres. Usng the technology vector for the US s very lkely to create a bas; n comparson to Norway one would for example expect dfferences n the technology employed n the energy and transport sectors. But, keepng possble dstortons n mnd, the calculaton gves an nsght nto the mpact of nternatonal trade on emssons. The most developed countres are major exporters and therefore producers of polluton ntensve goods, whle developng countres produce such goods to a lesser degree. One possble explanaton s the dfferences n energy supply and use between the two groups of countres; energy ntensve ndustres and servces are often smlar to polluton ntensve sectors. 5 The calculaton of the weghts are hefted by great uncertanty (UNEP-GrdArendal, 6 UNESCO- Energy Effcency n Afrca for Sustanable Development (2001) 12

13 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? The approach and results of Muradan, O'Connor and Martnez-Aler Ths paper has a somewhat broader perspectve than Antwelers short and techncal approach. The man focus s on the role of consumers and consumpton as the ultmate cause of polluton. Consumer decsons are seen as the drvng force n determnng whch type of producton process wll be employed and how the demand for polluton (e.g. demand for envronment) develops. Ths s partcularly mportant when t comes to trade, as the consumers wll not be completely lable for decsons that ncrease mports and thereby polluton n other countres. As the authors note n the begnnng of the paper, they try to ad n the development of ndcators of nter-country envronmental load dsplacement. They start out wth a dscusson on varous types of ndcators, ncludng the concept of "ecologcal footprnts", whch s a way of measurng the sustanable level of economc actvty and resource depleton. Most of the ndcators dscussed are farly general and n some cases not easly nterpreted, as the authors note. Stll, all prevous studes that s examned pursue a consumpton-orented analyss, whch s seen as the rght way to go. problem of lnkng polluton to actual consumpton, lmts the analyss a great deal. Even so, the topcs studed are very mportant, and the PTTI, especally when computed wth more precson, s a excellent tool for ths knd of analyss. For ths reason, the Polluton Terms of Trade s adopted as a possble way of measurng the envronmental load dsplacement. The authors argue that ths ndcator has a clearer nterpretaton along wth other preferable features. Lke Antweler, ths paper presents results based on dentcal emsson ntenstes for all countres, and only the most pollutng economc sectors s ncluded n the calculaton. Some concern s rased over the fact that the orgnal ndcator s based on monetary terms, snce prce varatons could cause problems. Therefore physcal terms are used n the calculatons; although dentcal prces for export goods s a common and manly noncontroversal assumpton. The authors fnd some evdence whch support the EKC-hypothess, especally for Western Europe and Japan. However, ths concluson s not gven for all countres and all types of pollutants. Some countres, lke the USA, have not experenced the nverted U-curve as expected by the EKC-hypothess. Ths s explaned by a change n export composton towards less clean products. My man objecton s that these conclusons are not based on the calculaton of PTTI, but by the net polluton flow. As I dscussed earler, the latter ndcator s strongly correlated wth the trade balance, and any analyss over a tme perspectve wll be severely affected by ths. The calculaton of the PTTI gves a more ambguous result, but there seem to be some ndcaton that Western Europe and Japan to a larger degree than the USA places the envronmental load on other countres. But as the authors states, lack of detaled data on emssons ntenstes for dfferent countres and the 13

14 Exportng Polluton? Reports 2003/17 3. My approach and techncaltes regardng the PTTI 3.1. Theoretcal approach The problem of ncludng technologcal effects n the calculaton of the PTTI has been central n my project. As I mentoned above, Antweler assumes dentcal technologes across countres, excludng dfferences n producton processes that can lead to dfferences n emssons per unt produced. My approach has been to obtan emprcal data that can be used to calculate polluton ntenstes for each country and sector. Usng these data, I am able to compute the Polluton Terms of Trade n a way that s less based towards a certan set of technology parameters. Dfferences n technology vary wth envronmental standards, level of R&D, level of general development and several other factors. Wth these dfferences all catered for, I am able to nvestgate the emboded emssons n trade for a certan country as well as showng some possble applcatons for the one-country-case. The bass of the data set employed n the analyss s emssons and output data from dfferent countres, broken down by economc sectors. In several cases, ths has been obtaned from natonal statstcal offces or smlar sources, whle the man source has been Eurostat 7. The emsson ntenstes: E Y j j, = economc sector, j = country, have been the bass for calculatng the technology ndex. Snce my am s to compare the trade-weghted Norwegan and foregn emsson factors by calculatng the Envronmental Terms of Trade, t seemed reasonable to concentrate on fndng data for Norway's man trade partners, whch ncludes the rest of Scandnava, the EU and the US. The PTTI s calculated partly by weghtng emsson factors by commodty-specfc fractons smlar to the aggregate ones n the table on the prevous page, so that countres wth mnor or no trade relatons to Norway wll receve relatvely small or no weght n the 7 The statstcal offce of the Commson, the European Unon ndcator. Thus data from a collecton of less than 10% of the world's countres stll gves a good approxmaton for the PTTI. Table 3.1. Norwegan natonal trade accounts, 1995 FRACTION OF IMPORTED GOODS TO NORWAY BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN SWEDEN 14,69 GERMANY 14,57 GREAT BRITAIN 10,31 DENMARK 7,34 U S A 6,49 FRANCE 5,21 NETHERLANDS 4,94 ITALY 4,03 FINLAND 3,79 JAPAN 3,53 BELGIUM 2,82 REST OF THE WORLD 22,28 Collectng and processng the data has been a rather large, but mportant, part of the work. Because of dfferent statstcal sources, t has been dffcult to make comparable data sets for the dfferent countres, thus some assumptons had to be made. The assumptons are n some cases trval, but n other cases they pose more mportant lmtatons to the study, whch I wll dscuss further on. The approxmatons and assumptons have all been made n order to retan the man contrbuton of the study, namely dfferences n emsson ntenstes across countres. I have extended the analyss by calculatng the technology for as many countres as possble. Wth ths addtonal nformaton, I take nto account that countres dffer n terms of producton technology and also n terms of envronmental standards. These technology dfferences are also reflected n the trade composton, as long as they affect comparatve advantages, thus affectng the CC ndrectly. For example, a country may have low total emsson ntensty for SO 2 due to envronmental legslaton, but t may also be that all sectors wth a hgh SO2-ntensty have shfted producton abroad, thereby movng the problem to someone else. Ths s known as the "Polluton Havens hypothess", whch I wll dscuss later. 14

15 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? Whle the theoretcal PTTI s defned as the polluton content of exports relatve to the polluton content of mports, t s dffcult, for each defned sector or product group to dstngush emprcally between polluton content n exports and polluton content n producton for the domestc market. Data on emssons and output that are specfc for the exported part of producton s not readly avalable. Manly due to lack of suffcently detaled data t has been necessary to use emssons and output data for entre economc sectors as representatve measures of exports n the same sectors. Some problems may follow these assumptons, snce export demand facng Norwegan producers as well as the foregn supplers does not necessarly correspond to the respectve domestc demand. For example, total exports of food from Norway have a hgh share of exports of fsh and related products, whle exports of other food products are margnal. The polluton content of fshng and fsh farmng are qute dfferent from land-based food producton, thus the polluton content of food exports are dfferent from food producton for the home market. A correspondng problem apples to the polluton content of mports, whch should be dentcal to the polluton content of the export products from each exportng country to Norway. We cannot dstngush between ths from the polluton content of the whole producton of the commodty n the exportng country. However, these problems only apply to cases where mports or exports n a sector are domnated by a certan commodty much dfferent from the rest n terms of polluton content. Wth a suffcently detaled sector system, such dfferences are catered for, and should not affect the results n an excessve manner. Another restrcton s due to the mport/export matrxes used n calculatng the ndcator. The frstorder effects are captured through the emsson ntenstes n each sector, but any second-order effects are gnored. For example, f the home country ncreases the mports of a certan good, ths has effects n other parts of the economy of the foregn exporter, wth consequences for the level of polluton. The ndcator wll n ths case only capture the drect effect of ncreasng mports n the frst sector, not the nputoutput corrected polluton mpact. For example, ncreasng mport demand for electrcty-ntensve commodtes wll ncrease the demand n the exportng country for electrcty, whch may be produced n a hghly pollutve way. Another example s food products that ndrectly cause polluton through the demand for agrcultural commodtes to be processed. The total effect s the sum of the drect effect and the crosseffects, and could be calculated f I/O-tables for all the exportng countres were avalable and comparable. Extendng the study n ths way would sharpen the analyss, but also mpose numerous problems concernng compatblty wth dfferent I/O systems, both wth respect to aggregaton levels and datng. A Japanese study (Morguch et al. (2002)) has estmated nput-output corrected emsson ntenstes for Japan through such tables, whch s probably the way to go. Further extendng ths study and allowng for changes n the I/O structure over tme would be the next step. Modellng ths perfectly would essentally requre an nput-output model or lkewse for all countres exportng sgnfcant amounts to Norway, whch s not a trval task. These extensons would n theory gve more precse ndcatons of changes n the polluton pattern, but problems wth compatblty lack of relable data and presumably numerous approxmatons could easly cancel out such ncreases n precson. Therefore, to keep the smplcty of the orgnal ndcator and avod possble ptfalls wth extendng the analyss, ths study does not nvestgate such approaches. Whle the lmtaton of only calculatng the ndcator for a sngle country poses some restrctons on further applcatons, t stll leaves nterestng topcs to study wthn the framework of the polluton terms of trade. In Antwelers study, the PTTI s calculated for most countres, and then the countres are ranked accordng to the calculated value. The lst from hghest to lowest PTTI s nterpreted n the framework of the "development ladder", where the level of economc and technologcal development determnes the pattern of producton. As I have mentoned, my analyss concentrates on calculatng the ndcator for Norway, and nvestgatng changes n t due to a polcy shft. Based upon a CGE model or smlar, several scenaros for polcy, growth etc. could be mplemented wth the PTTI, usng the ndcator as an envronmental "benchmark" for any scenaro that leads to changes n the mport/export structure. Usng the results from a prevous study (Fæhn and Holmøy, 2000), of a trade lberalsaton scheme, I wll llustrate such an applcaton Techncal ssues When calculatng the PTTI, I have defned t n the followng manner: ETT E n C c φ δ c Y = 1 c= 1 c = n E,NORWAY γ Y = 1, NORWAY where =commodty and c=country. Commodty refers to the commodtes n MSG-6, the appled general equlbrum (AGE) model developed at Statstcs Norway. I wll explan features and applcaton of ths model later. The parameter δ s calculated from Trade Account data for Norway 1995, provded by Statstcs Norway, and represents the share of Norwegan mports of a certan commodty 15

16 Exportng Polluton? Reports 2003/17 from a certan country. The parameters φ and γ are the share of a certan commodty n total exports and mports, respectvely. The latter two parameters are calculated drectly from the base year of the 1995 calbraton of the MSG-6 model, whch s also the year most other data are collected from. Commonly, one uses economc sectors nstead of commodtes n trade studes, manly due to data avalablty. Snce commodtes are the objects n trade and there s no one-to-one relaton between commodtes and ndustres n real world or the statstcal accounts, the better approach s to handle the problem n terms of flows of goods and servces. The Norwegan Trade Accounts s manly based on the commodty approach, and have provded me wth commodty data. The PTTI s defned as polluton content of exports relatve to polluton content of mports. It has been convenent n ths study to nverse the defnton to a measure of the polluton content of mport relatve to polluton content of exports, that are manly larger than one (hundred). Besdes provdng me wth results that I fnd easer to nterpret and work wth, nvertng the fracton mples that the hgher the ndex the hgher the envronmental gan, whch seem more logcal. I wll refer to ths "upsde-down" PTTI as the Emsson Terms of Trade (ETT), n order to avod confuson. Further assumptons on rates of currency, converson factors of pollutants and so on have been made, and are all non-controversal Results In popular belef, Norway s sad to be a proponent of envronmentally frendly polces. Both from partcpaton n nternatonal bodes dealng wth envronmental ssues and from offcal polcy, Norway has been n front of the movement for global acton n the feld of polluton and protecton of nature. A recent case s the argument between the Norwegan Secretary of the Envronment and smlar authortes n the UK over emssons from the nuclear power plant Sellafeld. Although strong commercal nterests are nvolved n ths case, especally concerns about the mpact on the fsh populaton n the North Sea, Norway has pursued actve polces towards regonal envronmental problems. Another example s the Norwegan nvolvement n the Kola Pennsula 8. Domestcally, CO 2 taxes have been mposed on several areas of prvate consumpton such as gasolne and other petroleum based fuels, and several measures has been taken to lower emssons of SO 2, lead etc. The home ndustres enjoy the beneft of cheap electrcty from clean hydropower plants, whch s also seen as an envronmental advantage for Norway. Fgure 3.1. Composton of Norwegan mports (1995) Addtonal sectors Fgure 3.2. Composton of Norwegan exports (1995) Addtonal sectors Norwegan domestc consumpton has mplcatons for producton and therefore polluton n other countres through trade lnkages. Whle domestc producton n many cases s sad to be relatvely "clean", ths does not necessarly mply that domestc consumpton s clean n terms of emboded polluton from mported goods relatve to that of exports. The net amount of emboded polluton wll depend largely on the composton of mports and exports, as well as the technology component. The trade composton s shown n fgures 3.1 and For a closer look on Norway's nvolvement n regonal envronmental ssues, see 16

17 Reports 2003/17 Exportng Polluton? The numbers correspond to the commodtes n MSG-6, the mult-sectoral growth model developed at Statstcs Norway. A complete lst of all types of commodtes s gven n the appendx, but the man contrbutons to total mports come from C46 (Metal products and Machnery), C27 (Chemcal and Mneral products), C35/36 (Operatng expendture abroad, fshng/ shppng and drect purchases abroad by Norwegans/ drect purchases n Norway by non-resdents) and C43 (Metals) Norwegan exports are domnated by C66 (Crude ol) as well as C60 (Ocean transport) n addton to the metal and machnery commodtes mentoned above. Before I dscuss the results, t s mportant to keep n mnd that these calculatons have ncluded not only the composton component of the PTTI as other studes. I have also accounted for dfferent technology matrxes, whch s a major mprovement compared to prevous studes. In some cases, dfferences n the computed emssons ntenstes have proved to be large 9, and t s therefore evdent that these dfferences need to be catered for n such an analyss. The gan from ncludeng dfferent sets of ntenstes can be seen n table 2, rght column, where the ndcator s calculated usng an dentcal set (Norwegan emsson ntenstes) for all countres. It s evdent that for some types of emssons the dfference between emsson ntenstes can play an mportant role, ths s the case for NH 3, SO 2, CO and N 2 O. The technology component s less sgnfcant n the case of CO 2, CH 4, NO X and NMVOC. I wll comment more on these dfferences under each emsson type The results from my calculatons gve an ambguous answer to ths queston. As we have seen n the prevous chapter, a value greater than 1 mples that mports have greater polluton content than exports and a value between 0 and 1 mples that exports are more pollutve. A producton-weghted ndex based on total emssons and total output for each country was calculated n (Bruvoll, Fæhn and Strøm 2003), these values are n the mddle column. I wll dscuss the types of emssons one by one 10. It s approprate wth a general comment on the dfference between the trade-weghted and the productonweghted values. The latter values are calculated from total emssons n the dfferent countres, ncludng emssons accounts for the household sector, whch n ths settng s regarded as a producton sector. My calculaton gves no weght to domestc and foregn emssons not related to producton of tradable commodtes, snce the am s to fnd the balance of envronmental pressure from trade. Ths dfference n weghtng schemes wll partcularly be reflected n the ndexes when emssons come from households or producton solely for the home market. Table 3.2. Emsson type Emsson Terms of Trade Producton- Weghted Index Emssons Terms of Trade, dentcal emsson ntenstes CO 2 0,763 2,2 0,762 CH 4 1,594 2,2 1,391 NH 3 7,466 not avalable 4,984 NMVOC 0,320 0,7 0,288 SO 2 1,208 9,8 0,868 CO 2,055 1,6 1,069 NO X 0,509 1,0 0,511 N 2 O 1,140 1,7 1,945 CO 2 A value of 0,763 ndcates that Norwegan exports contan a slghtly larger amount of CO 2 than ts mports. If we look at the trade composton, the most mportant export commodty by far s crude ol, n whch the producton creates CO 2 emssons through flarng of gas. Other large export sectors nclude metals and machnery products, where emssons of CO 2 are due to the use of reducng agents n producton. The fact that the technology component does not change the value ndcates that the emsson ntenstes for CO 2 s relatvely smlar for Norway and ts trade-partners, probably a reflecton of small dfferences n ths output from combuston of fuel. One has to note that the emssons ntensty of metal producton n other countres s lkely to be underestmated compared to the smlar emssons ntensty for Norway, the reason beng that the nput-output effect s not accounted for on emssons from the producton of the nput electrcty. Whle ths does not affect Norwegan fgures much, as electrcty s manly clean, ths wll underestmate fgures for countres based on thermal power. It s lkely that the secondary nput-output effect would mply a larger value of the ndcator. Ths s also shown n the dfference from the ETT to the Producton-Weghted Index (PWI). Whle dfferences n emssons ntenstes 11 are consderable n some cases, t seems that the composton effect due to the extreme specalsaton of Norwegan exports are very mportant n explanng the fact that the CO 2 content of exports are larger than of the mports. 9 For an llustraton of dfferences n emssons ntenstes between Norway and other countres see appendx A 10 More facts on the dfferent types of emssons can be found n Natural Resources and The Envronment (Statstcs Norway 2002) n addton to numerous other sources, ncludng the Unted Natons Envronment Programme ( 11 See Appendx A) Emsson Factors 17

18 Exportng Polluton? Reports 2003/17 CH 4 The most methane-ntensve sectors are the agrculture sector and servces dealng wth waste and landflls. In addton, combuston of fossl fuels contrbutes some to the emssons. CH4 contrbutes to the greenhouse effect, n addton to local ar qualty through the formaton of ground-level ozone. The ETT for CH 4 s found to be 1,594, ndcatng a "net mport" of methane. Man contrbutng commodty s agrcultural products, not because t domnate mports relatve to exports (both mports and exports of such commodtes are margnal), but because of the relatvely large emsson ntenstes n agrculture. The mport share of agrcultural commodtes s large than the export share, followed by a relatvely large emsson ntensty n mports. It s mportant to note that the content of CH 4 n Norwegan exports would have been sgnfcantly smaller wthout the emssons from the ol ndustry. In addton to the large share of exports, producton of crude ol n Norway has a large emsson ntensty, thus both the TC and the CC of exports s draggng n the same drecton. It s also a queston whether emsson accounts abroad nclude emssons from waste and landflls related to handlng of waste from producton processes, whch s accounted for n the Norwegan fgures. If not, the value of the ndex should be somewhat hgher. Ths may be the explanaton for the dfference between the ETT and the PWI. NH 3 Ths s a pollutant wth merely local effect, due to ts acdfcaton propertes. Sources are agrculture, through use of fertlzers, and some emssons from road traffc. Calculated ETT s 7,466, a rather hgh value, whch can be explaned by the same argument as for CH 4, the emsson ntensty for foregn agrculture s several tmes larger than for other sectors. Even though the CC gves a small weght to agrculture, the TC stll domnates n the ETT. Ths s also evdent n from the dfference between the ETT wth and wthout dfferent sets of EI's. NMVOC The case of Non-Methane Volatle Compounds or NMVOC's s partcular for Norway. Emssons of these compounds manly come from ol and other petroleum related actvtes ncludng use of solvents, and due to the economc mportance of the ol ndustry n Norwegan exports, domestc emssons are rather hgh. Ths s clearly seen from the ETT, wth a value of 0,320 ndcatng large polluton content n exports relatve to mports. It s obvous that both the TC and CC contrbutes to the low value, the large emsson ntensty n producton of crude ol s also gven a large weght because of ts large share of exports. The result also corresponds to the PWI value. NMVOC affects local ar qualty through the converson nto groundlevel ozone. SO 2 As a product of combuston processes, sulphur doxde s emtted from many sources; some of the most mportant s metal producton, thermal power plants and transportaton. It s one of the man acdfyng agents n addton to NH 3 and NO X. The productonweghted ndex presented earler ndcates a very low level of Norwegan emssons compared to other countres, a concluson that s backed by strct regulaton compared to other countres over the last years. Stll, the calculated value shows a dfferent story, a value of 1,208 gves a more moderate concluson. The reason s emssons from ocean transport, whch s an mportant sector n Norwegan exports, and agan, both the TC and the CC s pullng n the same drecton. Norwegan sulphur regulaton may be strcter than n other countres, but t seems to be most effectve n sectors wth lttle relevance to nternatonal trade, such as domestc transport and heatng from combuston. It s nterestng to see that the ndcator drops below one f dentcal emsson ntenstes are employed, ths shows that composton of trade s of less mportance n ths case. CO Ths pollutant s also manly related to combuston of fuel etc., and partcularly so n producton of metals and chemcal producton. These commodtes are mportant parts of the composton of mports and exports for Norway. On the other sde, the TC contrbutes to the value of 2,055 especally n the case of metal producton, where Norwegan emsson ntensty s smaller than the smlar EI for our trade partners. We see that the ndcator s close to balance (one) when usng dentcal emsson ntenstes, ths emphaszes the mportance of dfferent emsson ntenstes. The ETT value s larger than the PWI, whch ndcates that emssons n exports pr. domestcally produced unt n total are relatvely larger than emssons n mports pr. produced unt abroad. CO emssons manly affect local ar qualty. NO X Ocean transport s an mportant ndustry n Norway, and snce t s defned as exports, t contrbutes substantally to the CC. Emssons of NO X are manly due to combuston, and have a partcularly hgh ntensty n ocean transport and other transport sectors. Emssons are also consderable n the ol ndustry, possbly due to flarng of natural gas, n addton to some emssons from the metal and chemcal ndustres. Along wth the compostonal contrbuton, Norwegan emssons ntenstes n the latter sectors of producton are slghtly hgher than for other countres, all n all resultng n a relatvely low ETT of 0,509. Ths s lover than the PWI, manly because of the mportance of ocean transport n exports relatve to ts mportance n total producton. 18

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