Freight models, constrained economic models and natural resource data. TRB, Washington, 21 October 2013 Ming Chen, TNO

Transcription

1 Freight models, constrained economic models and natural resource data TRB, Washington, 21 October 2013

2 2 October 21, 2013 The need for a restricted model Conceptual framework Model suite TNO Examples of application and advantages Next steps

3 3 Context Recent history: Climate debate Ongoing and visible trend breaks (energy, food, water scarcity) Upcoming (large) economies (BRIC) Financial reset (changing approach towards debts) Energy independence (EU: import oil & gas 1.1 Billion/day) As a consequence: Long term solutions/policies required Long term assessment and forecasting required (often upto 2050) Additional mega trends to be taken into account => Boundaries become visible

4 4 Approaching the problem at the right level

5 5

6 6 October 21, 2013 Table: Moment where production growth is smaller than growth of demand moment of maximum production of non-replaceable natural resources When years to go before Lithium before Antimony, Arsenic, Barite, Cadmium, Fluorspar, Gold, Iron ore, Lead, Manganese, Molybdenum, Niobium, Rhenium, Silver, Strontium, Tin, Zinc, Zirconium before Bauxite, Bismuth, Coal, Cobalt, Copper, Garnet, Graphite, Natural Gas, Nickel, Thallium Titanium, Tungsten Boron, Magnesium, Mercury, Phosphate Rock, PGM, before Selenium, Vanadium after Bromine, Cement, Lime, Potash, REM, Salt, Soda Ash Aluminium, Beryllium, Chromium, Diamond, Gallium, No data No data Germanium, Hafnium, Indium, Nitrogen, Silicon, Sulphur, Tantalum See section 3 See section 3 Oil Source: Continuously Less and Less, Chris Clugston, 2009 and Metal minerals scarcity, TNO, March 2009, separate category for oil NEA Danger zone: < 30 years Note: indicative figures not derived from our model

7 7 Implications of scarcity non-replaceable natural resources Economic principles: Insufficient supply > increase price > reduced demand Increase in price > production at higher costs possible > more supply In this case: no production at lower costs will return > products using scarce resources price increase and substitutes only available at higher costs > reduced demand > negative effect on economy as a whole (unless new cheaper technology or alternatives become available) Example: oil off shore drilling So restricted economic growth models required

8 8 October 21, 2013 What to expect Scarcity on some natural resources including labor, land use, energy, water, Efficiency in use of scarce resources Transition to less scarce resources Large scale innovations Societal change Changing trade relations Reallocation of welfare in the world?

9 9 October 21, 2013 Conceptual Freight Modeling Framework Global Data sources European/Federal Data Sources National/State Data Sources Regional/Local Data sources World Economic Model European/Federal Freight Model National/State Freight model Regional/Local Freight model Consistency rule Consistency rule Consistency rule

10 10 October 21, 2013 Models available at TNO World EU NL Production & Consumption Distribution EXIOMOD Raem- Europe TRANS-TOOLS BasGoed Logistics Modal split Route choice World Container model (maritime/ ports) TNO Freight Transport Model BasGoed BIVAS (inland waterways)

11 Current Model flow October 21,

12 12 Characteristics of the models Geographical scope, detail Input/output EXIOMOD RAEM-Europe TNO Freight models World Country Europe NUTS2 + Europe NUTS2 + non-eu country non-eu country relations relations Output: PC matrix (in euro) Output: PC matrix (in euro) Input: OD matrix (in tonnes) Commodity classification Modelling type 2-digit NACE (164 sectors/200 commodities) Computable General Equilibrium model 1-digit NACE (59 sectors/ commodities) Spatial Computable General Equilibrium model NSTR1 (10 commodities) Multinomial logit & All-or-nothing

13 13 EXIOMOD Model Sectoral / Regional Dimension Interesting features Main outputs Possible applications EXIOMOD Main countries of the world 164 industries and service sectors, 200 commodities Uses results of EXIOPOL Linking physical and economic flows Very detailed environmental and energy dimension International trade Emissions and waste Use and extraction of natural resources Changes in technologies Sustainability issues Climate change Energy transition Competitiveness of European countries Unique elements: Represents 95% of global economy (43 countries incl. EU27, US, Japan, Russia, Brazil, India and China) Much detail on Social effects, Economic effects, Environmental effects Semi-endogenous growth under the framework of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. (dynamic, recursive over time) Agent-based modeling of expectation formation and technology adoption Dynamics of capital accumulation and technology progress, stock and flow relationships and adaptive expectations.

14 14 RAEM-Europe Model Sectoral / Regional Dimension Interesting features Main outputs Possible applications RAEM-Europe NUTS2 regions of EU27 (271) 24 industries and service sectors Combination of NEG with endogenous growth, migration Linking social, economic and environmental dimensions Interregional trade Regional production, consumption, emissions and waste Migration European Cohesion Policy Transport Environment Regional economic growth Unique elements: Representation of agglomeration and dispersion effects using the framework of new economic geography Inter-regional migration flows at the level of NUTS2 regions of EU Endogenous economic growth and inter-regional knowledge spillovers Two levels of the government Environmental effects at the regional level Model choice for different types of trips Amount of transport infrastructure investments is related to the road capacity and transport costs

15 15 Examples of application and advantages

16 October 21, 2013 Example: Innovation scenarios for the building sector Figure: Improvement of material efficiency as measured in material used per unit of output in the baseline scenario 0.00% Stone -0.50% Sand and clay -1.00% Chemical and fertilizer minerals, salt and other mining and quarrying products n.e.c. Chemicals nec -1.50% -2.00% -2.50% Lead, zinc and tin ores and concentrates Other non-ferrous metal ores and concentrates Aluminium ores and concentrates -3.00%

17 17 Example non-eu developments to EU regional impacts

18 Euro Euro October 21, Internalization of external costs 70 Baseline 70 Internalisatie Externe kosten Productiekosten Results: Limited impact on global economy (-0.9%) Limited impact on container flows through port of Rotterdam (-0.5%) Benefits (external) higher than costs (internal), ratio 2.6 : 1

19 19 Advantages Improved prediction of international trade for 200 types of commodities Improved prediction of bulk flows, Improved assessment of external impacts including water and land use as well as generation of waste flows which will impact for instance the assessments of infrastructure needs for ports and the inland modes and policies of at each level (national, regional).

20 20 Improvement: Conversion factor module and scenarios for value-weight ratios

21 21 Improvement: Transportation/logistics costs input to Economic module

22 22 Example EU regional development and global impacts

23 23 Overview of project experiences used for this presentation 1. FP 7 HIGH-TOOL => development of a high level transport model 2. FP 7 ETISplus => European Transport policy Information System 3. FP 7 FLAGSHIP => Forward looking assessment driving change 4. FP 7 DESIRE => Development of resource efficiency indicators 5. FP 7 Emininn => Environmental macro Indicators of Innovation 6. FP7 - POLFREE (POLicy options For a Resource Efficient Economy) 7. FP7 CREEA => Compiling and Refining Environmental and Economic Accounts 8. RHOMOLO project for DG REGIO and IPTS => construction of regional-economic model for Impact Assessment of ECP

24 24 Overview of project experiences used for this presentation 1. FP6 EXIOPOL => A New Environmental Accounting Framework Using Externality Data and Input-Output Tools for Policy Analysis 2. FP6 REFIT => REFinement and test of sustainability Indicators and Tools with regard to European Transport 3. FP 6 TRANS-TOOL => development of a Transport model