Recent carbon trends and the fate of the natural sink
|
|
- Tracy Caldwell
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Recent carbon trends and the fate of the natural sink Biosphere between sink & source Johannes Enssle GCM 2007 Student presentation Physical Fundamentals of Global Change
2 Content 1. Recent global carbon trends ( ) 2. Global carbon budget from Biosphere: between sink & source 4. Vulnerability and saturation of the terrestrial sink 5. Summary & Conclusions
3 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B Observed growth rates % Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, as in presentation of the GCP by Canadell 2007
4 Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions Factor (relative to 1990) World F Emissions (emissions) P Population (population) g Wealth = G/P= per capita GDP 0.6 h Carbon = F/Gintensity of GDP Raupach et al 2007, PNAS, as adapted by Global Carbon Project (Canadell 2007)
5
6 Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation Africa Latin America Pg C y -1 (16% total emissions) Pg C yr S. & SE Asia SUM Houghton, unpublished, Canadell 2007
7 2. The Global Carbon Budget ( )
8 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) GtC/yr CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source extra-tropics deforestation tropics 1.5 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
9 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation GtC/yr Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
10 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation GtC/yr Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
11 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO GtC/yr 4.1 (45%) Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
12 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO GtC/yr 4.1 (45%) ocean 2.2 (24%) Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
13 Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source fossil fuel emissions deforestation atmospheric CO 2 land ocean GtC/yr 4.1 (45%) 2.8 (30%) 2.2 (24%) Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
14 The land cycle (1980s) 120 GPP - 60 AR - 55 HR - 4 Fires +1 GtC/yr NBP = 1GtC/y Source: IPCC 2001, TAR, Chapter 3.1 as estimated for the 1980s
15 3. Biosphere: between sink & source
16 Factors that Influence the Carbon Fluxes 1. The rate of CO 2 emissions. 2. The rate of CO 2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans: Land: CO 2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, fire suppression Oceans: CO 2 solubility (temperature, salinity), ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, Canadell et al. 2007, Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press
17 The Efficiency of Natural Sinks: Land and Ocean Fractions Land High variability No clear trend Vulnerable to climate change. Ocean Clear trend downwards Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
18 4. Vulnerability and saturation of the terrestrial sink
19 Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink Part of the decline is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years. This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon. Credit: N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5 Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters. The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole.
20 2003 Heat Wave in Europe The largest productivity crash of the past 100 years CO 2 Anomaly 30% Reduction of GPP 0.5PgC Net source of CO 2 4 years Equivalent C sink Ciais et al. 2005, Peylin et al., unpublished
21 Carbon Sinks from Forest Regrowth Years Source: Canadell 2007
22 Fertilization Effect of 550 ppm of CO 2 on Forest Productivity Source: Canadell 2007
23
24 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Many Pools and Processes not included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006
25 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System 400 Pg C - frozen soils vulnerable to warming >400 Pg C - frozen sediments vulnerable to warming Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006
26 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System Photo: : Erkki Oksanen 400 Pg C cold peatlands vulnerable to climate change Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans 100 Pg CHC 4 Hydrates tropical peatlands Biological Pump vulnerable to land use and Solubility Pump climate change Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006
27 Vulnerability of the Carbon Cycle in the 21 st Century Hot Spots of the Carbon-Climate System >500 Pg C vegetation and soils vulnerable to drought x land use x fire Land Permafrost HL Peatlands T Peatlands Veg.-Fire/LUC Oceans CH 4 Hydrates Biological Pump Solubility Pump Many Pools and Processes not in included in Earth System models Field and Raupach 2004 Canadell et al. 2006
28 Since 2000: Summary & Conclusions (i) The growth of carbon emissions from fossil fuels has tripled compared to the 1990s and is exceeding the predictions of the highest IPCC emission scenarios. The carbon intensity of the world s economy has stopped decreasing (after 100 years of doing so). The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 10% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future).
29 Summary & Conclusions (ii) All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected. Protect current carbon pools, avoid deforestation! Be worried, be very worried! Use wood!
30 Sources Special Thanks to Joseph Canadell and the Team from the Global Carbon Project
31
32 The Global Carbon Balance (1990s) 1990s GtC/yr -1.7 GtC/yr Source:
33 During the last two decades, biosphere was subsidizing our fossil-fuel emissions: 1980s 1990s Fossil fuel + cement +deforest. 5.4 GtC/yr 6.4 GtC/yr 9.1 GtC/yr Annual atmospheric increase 3.3 GtC/yr 3.2 GtC/yr 4.1 GtC/yr Oceanic biosphere net sink -1.9 (35 %) -1.7 (27 %) -2.2 (24 %) Terrestrial biosphere net sink -0.2 ( 4 %) -1.4 (22 %) -2.8 (30 %) Total biosphere sink ~39 % ~49 % ~54% How come these big changes? How may the terrestrial sink change in future? Sources: adapted from IPCC 2001, TAR, Chapter 3.2 and Canadell 2007
34 Future Dynamics of C Sink Mechanisms 1. Are the sink mechanisms permanent features? Sink Strength time 3. Will they saturate? time 4. Will they disappear? Sink Strength Sink Strength time 2. Will they increase in strength? Increased Precipitation (depending on timing of warming) Sink Strength None Woody Encroachment Forest Regrowth CO2 fertilization Cropland Soils N deposition time
35 Summary & Conclusions (ii) Window of Opportunity becomes smaller and smaller. The current net C sink is not a permanent feature of the terrestrial biosphere but the result of an imbalance driven by past and present human activities. Some regions might turn into net-sources. Several tipping-points are possible.
36 Some key definitions Source: IPCC 2001, TAR
Global. Carbon Trends. Pep Canadell Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra, Australia
Global Carbon Trends Pep Canadell Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra, Australia Outline 1. Recent Trends 2. Perturbation Budget 3. Sink Efficiency 4. Attribution 5. Processes
More informationCarbon Budget. Last update: 26 September 2008
Carbon Budget 2007 GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Christopher B. Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Richard A. Houghton, Gregg Marland, Michael R. Raupach Last update:
More informationThe unnatural carbon dioxide cycle and oceanic processes over the last few hundred years. OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography
The unnatural carbon dioxide cycle and oceanic processes over the last few hundred years OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography In the 19th century, scientists realized that gases in the atmosphere cause a "greenhouse
More informationPeople, Oceans and Climate Change
People, Oceans and Climate Change A deeper look at the carbon dioxide cycle, greenhouse gases, and oceanic processes over the last 150 years OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 18 April 2013 Reading: Libes,
More informationPeople, Oceans and Climate Change
People, Oceans and Climate Change or the unnatural carbon dioxide cycle and oceanic processes over the last few hundred years OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography Reading: Libes, Chapter 25 (a good summary) In
More informationGlobal Climate Change: Recent Developments. Pål Prestrud, Director CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo
Global Climate Change: Recent Developments Pål Prestrud, Director CICERO Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo 1 Changes in global atmospheric temperature during the last
More informationBeyond REDD+ What management of land can and cannot do to help control atmospheric CO 2. R.A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center
Beyond REDD+ What management of land can and cannot do to help control atmospheric CO 2 R.A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center Outline Introduction: Climate Change The Global Carbon Cycle What can we
More informationOverview of Global Carbon Emissions and the Nature of Carbon Management Challenges
Overview of Global Carbon Emissions and the Nature of Carbon Management Challenges Shobhakar Dhakal Shobhakar.dhakal@nies.go.jp, shobhakar.dhakal@gmail.com Executive Director Global Carbon Project (GCP)
More informationScientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways
Scientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways Dr Richard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center with contributions from the Global
More informationPast, current and projected changes of global GHG emissions and concentrations
Past, current and projected changes of global GHG emissions and concentrations Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia lead author, WGI Chapter 6 Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Change in greenhouse
More informationSection C: Carbon Cycle
Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2016 Global Climate Change 1 Prof J.
More informationThe Global Carbon Cycle
The Global Carbon Cycle Laurent Bopp LSCE, Paris 1 From NASA Website Introduction CO2 is an important greenhouse gas Contribution to Natural Greenhouse Effect Contribution to Anthropogenic Effect 2 Altitude
More informationOn the amount of mitigation required to solve the carbon problem: new constraints from recent carbon cycle science. Stephen W.
On the amount of mitigation required to solve the carbon problem: new constraints from recent carbon cycle science. Stephen W. Pacala, Outline 1. Effort required to solve the carbon and climate problem
More informationNext 3 weeks. Last week of class (03/10+03/12): Student presentations. Papers due on Monday March 9.
Next 3 weeks Tu 2/24: Terrestrial CO 2 uptake (LJ) Th 2/26: Paper discussion (Solomon et al., Irreversible climate change due to CO 2 emissions, 2009, PNAS) Tu 3/3: Geoengineering (JS+LJ) Th 3/5: Geoengineering
More informationDo Changes in Land Use Account for the Net Terrestrial Flux of Carbon to the Atmosphere? R.A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center
Do Changes in Land Use Account for the Net Terrestrial Flux of Carbon to the Atmosphere? R.A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center Introduction Several lines of evidence suggest a terrestrial carbon sink
More information10/14/14. Sec on C: Carbon Cycle. Sec on C: Carbon Cycle. Sec on C: Carbon Cycle. GEOG 313/513 Fall GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014
Sec on C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduc on C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturba ons to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke
More informationClimate Change: Global and Australian perspectives
Climate Change: Global and Australian perspectives Michael Raupach Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research ESSP Global Carbon Project with Pep Canadell Thanks: GCP colleagues, CSIRO colleagues,
More informationBudget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December Carbon Budget
Budget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December 2011 Carbon Budget 2010 GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 Contributors Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National
More informationGlobal CO 2 and Climate Change
Global CO 2 and Climate Change A deeper look at the carbon dioxide cycle, greenhouse gases, and oceanic processes over the last 200 years OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 17 April 2018 Reading: Libes, Chapter
More informationEnhancing the science basis
Enhancing the science basis Guy Midgley, Ghassem Asnar, Anantha Duraiappah, Andy Haines, Ada Ignaciuk, Anne Larigauderie, Rik Leemans, Corinne Le Quéré, Sybil Seitzinger and Charles Vorosmarty UNFCCC-SBSTA
More informationForest carbon allocation as a determinant of net primary productivity. Ivan Janssens
Forest carbon allocation as a determinant of net primary productivity Ivan Janssens 4. Take home messages: 1. Variation in forest GPP* is predominantly climate-controlled, In contrast: variation in NPP**/GPP
More informationThe world forest sink closes the global carbon cycle
The world forest sink closes the global carbon cycle Yude Pan, Ricarhd Birdsey, Jingyun Fang, Richard Houghton, Pekka Kauppi, Werner A. Kurz, Oliver L. Phillips, Anatoly Shvidenko, Simon L. Lewis Josep
More informationThe Global Carbon Cycle
The Global Carbon Cycle In a nutshell We are mining fossil CO 2 and titrating into the oceans, (buffered by acid-base chemistry) Much of the fossil CO 2 will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years
More informationAsian Greenhouse Gases Budgets
International workshop on Asian Greenhouse Gases Budgets Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India 27-29 September 2011 Pep Canadell*, Prabir Patra *CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra,
More informationCarbon cycle and climate change, a tale of increasing emissions and uncertain sinks
Carbon cycle and climate change, a tale of increasing emissions and uncertain sinks Philippe Peylin On behalf of Chapter-6 Philippe Ciais and Chris Sabine Govindasamy Bala (India), Laurent Bopp (France),
More informationThe Global Carbon Cycle
The Global Carbon Cycle Laurent Bopp LSCE, Paris Introduction CO2 is an important greenhouse gas Contribution to Natural Greenhouse Effect Contribution to Anthropogenic Effect 1 From NASA Website 2 Introduction
More informationRising atmospheric CO 2. The Carbon Cycle
The Carbon Cycle Rising atmospheric CO 2 I. Introduction: Changes to Global C Cycle (Ch. 15) II. C-cycle overview: pools & fluxes (Ch. 6) III. Controls on GPP (Ch. 5) IV. Controls on NPP (Ch. 6) V. Controls
More informationUnited Nations Environment Programme
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment United Nations Environment Programme Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences The carbon-climate-human
More informationThe Carbon Cycle. Dr Emily Lines School of Geography, Queen Mary University of London
The Carbon Cycle Dr Emily Lines School of Geography, Queen Mary University of London e.lines@qmul.ac.uk Global carbon cycle Carbon stocks and annual carbon exchange fluxes: Prior to the Industrial Era
More informationProjections of Climate Change and Some Implications for Ocean Ecosystems
Projections of Climate Change and Some Implications for Ocean Ecosystems R. K. Pachauri 29 th June 2013 Okinawa, Japan Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel
More informationAnthropogenic perturbed carbon cycle. Pete Strutton, UTas
Anthropogenic perturbed carbon cycle 1. Emissions by country, per capita, intensity 2. Current sinks: Atmosphere, land, ocean 3. Impacts on ocean 4. Prospects for significant reductions Pete Strutton,
More informationCarbon Science Highlights 2004
Carbon Science Highlights 2004 THE PAST Understanding the Ice Ages THE PRESENT Observations of Atmospheric Gases Estimating CO 2 Sources and Sinks Processes Controlling CO 2 Fluxes Processes Determining
More informationTropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Knowledge and Potential Future Scenarios
Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Knowledge and Potential Future Scenarios Simon L. Lewis 1 Oliver L. Phillips 1, Tim R. Baker 1, Yadvinder Malhi 2, Jon Lloyd 1 1 Earth & Biosphere
More informationUrbanisation and the global carbon cycle: links, drivers and implications
Urbanisation and the global carbon cycle: links, drivers and implications Michael Raupach, Pep Canadell and Shobhakar Dhakal Global Carbon Project (IGBP-IHDP-WCRP-Diversitas) International GCP workshop
More informationMartin Heimann Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Martin Heimann Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany martin.heimann@bgc-jena.mpg.de 1 Northern Eurasia: winter: enhanced warming in arctic, more precip summer: general warming in center,
More informationHighlights of CO 2 Science Jorge Sarmiento
Highlights of CO 2 Science Jorge Sarmiento I. Carbon budget update for 2000-2006 Sources: (1) Emissions from fossil fuel burning & cement production have surged (2) Estimates of land use change source
More informationSoil Carbon Sequestration
Soil Carbon Sequestration Rattan Lal Carbon Management and The Ohio State University Columbus, OH 43210 USA 1 BIOSEQUESTRATION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO 2 Only 0.05% of the 3800 zettajoules (10 21 J) of solar
More informationClimate change: facts, impacts and global security
Climate change: facts, impacts and global security Unesco Paris July 2009 Philip C. Reid FACTS IPCC 2007 Warming unequivocal Very high confidence that due to forcing by human activities Global surface
More informationThe role of the biosphere for the carbon cycle in a changing climate
GEOSCIENCE INFORMATION FOR TEACHERS (GIFT) WORKSHOP EGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 2008 The role of the biosphere for the carbon cycle in a changing climate (Principles Factors Models Uncertainties)
More informationCauses of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate. Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
Causes of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Overview 1.The causes of observed climate change 2.Global and regional climate projections
More informationCO 2 emissions: trends and future pathways (Houston, we have a problem)
CO 2 emissions: trends and future pathways (Houston, we have a problem) Michael Raupach ESSP Global Carbon Project Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research with Pep Canadell, Cathy Trudinger,
More informationIPCC-AR5 Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
IPCC-AR5 Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles CO2, CH4 and N2O are the biggest GHGs. Uncertainty in black carbon. (CFCs) They all have important biogeochemical cycles, which complicates things.
More informationBudget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January Carbon Budget
Budget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January 2011 Carbon Budget 2009 GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors Karen Assmann University of Bergen, Norway Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information
More informationThe Big Picture: Relationship between Forests and Climate Change
The Big Picture: Relationship between Forests and Climate Change Edie Sonne Hall, Weyerhaeuser Forestry Sub-committee of Oregon s Global Warming Commission 07/07/08 Outline Overview of the carbon cycle
More informationGreenhouse gases and agricultural: an introduction to the processes and tools to quantify them Richard T. Conant
Greenhouse gases and agricultural: an introduction to the processes and tools to quantify them Richard T. Conant Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Perturbation of Global Carbon
More informationHow will we measure the response of carbon export in the ocean to climate change? Ken Johnson MBARI
How will we measure the response of carbon export in the ocean to climate change? Ken Johnson MBARI johnson@mbari.org Outline: Why care about ocean carbon flux? Future changes? How would we measure changes
More informationThe 20 th century carbon budget simulated with CCCma first generation earth system model (CanESM1)
1/21 The 2 th century carbon budget simulated with CCCma first generation earth system model (CanESM1) Vivek K Arora, George J Boer, Charles L Curry, James R Christian, Kos Zahariev, Kenneth L Denman,
More informationCarbon accounting related to Bioenergy: Where do we stand?
Carbon accounting related to Bioenergy: Where do we stand? Helmut Haberl, 1 Karl-Heinz Erb, 1 Tim Beringer, 2 Wilfried Winiwarter 3 1 Institute of Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Schottenfeldgasse
More informationPOSITIVE FEEDBACKS, DYNAMIC ICE SHEETS, AND THE RECARBONIZATION OF THE GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLY: THE NEW SENSE OF URGENCY ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING
POSITIVE FEEDBACKS, DYNAMIC ICE SHEETS, AND THE RECARBONIZATION OF THE GLOBAL FUEL SUPPLY: THE NEW SENSE OF URGENCY ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING Partners in Environmental Technology Technical Symposium and Workshop
More informationCarbonTracker: monitoren van veranderingen in de terrestrische koolstofcyclus. Wouter Peters & MAQ staf
CarbonTracker: monitoren van veranderingen in de terrestrische koolstofcyclus Wouter Peters & MAQ staf Inhoud De koolstofcyclus in perspectief Monitoren van de koolstofcyclus Resultaten van 7 jaar Carbon
More informationClimate Change 2017 The Nature of the Challenge
Climate Change 2017 The Nature of the Challenge Will Steffen Emeritus Professor, Australian National University Senior Fellow, Stockholm Resilience Centre Outline of Talk 1. Basic climate science and impacts
More informationClimate Change Trends for Planning at Capulin Volcano National Monument, New Mexico Patrick Gonzalez National Park Service September 26, 2012
Climate Change Trends for Planning at Capulin Volcano National Monument, New Mexico Patrick Gonzalez National Park Service September 26, 2012 Historical Trends From 1901 to 2002, mean annual temperature
More informationATM S 211 Final Examination June 4, 2007
ATM S 211 Final Examination June 4, 2007 Name This examination consists of a total of 100 points. In each of the first two sections, you have a choice of which questions to answer. Please note that you
More informationBudget08 Released on 17 November 2009 ppt version 11 May Carbon Budget. GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium
Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009 ppt version 11 May 2010 Carbon Budget 2008 GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium Artist Impression of the Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle GCP-Carbon Budget2008
More informationObservations of Growth Rate of Carbon Reservoirs. Keeling et al. (2000) & Marland et al. (2000)
Carbon Science A new synthesis of the present carbon budget. Building an earth system model for century time scale scenarios An examination of the long term consequences of continued fossil fuel use Scouts
More informationWhat Impact Would the Dieback of Amazonia Have on Regional and Global Climate, Carbon, Water, and Energy Cycles?
What Impact Would the Dieback of Amazonia Have on Regional and Global Climate, Carbon, Water, and Energy Cycles? Richard Betts*, Peter Cox* #, Chris Jones*, Mike Sanderson*, Stephanie Woodward* *Hadley
More informationClimate and Carbon Cycle Coupling Carbon Cycle - Modern
Early Cenozoic Carbon Cycle and Climate Coupling: Evidence from δ 13 C & δ 18 O Zachos et al. (2008) Climate and Carbon Cycle Coupling Carbon Cycle - Modern Fluxes and Feedbacks Carbon Isotope Tracers
More informationThe IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change
The IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change Martin Manning Director, IPCC Working Group I Support Unit 1. Observed climate change 2. Drivers of climate change 3. Attribution of cause
More informationForests and Climate. Changing Forests. Carbon, Climate over Time. Current Forest Change. Why Should We Care? Forest Carbon Cycle
Forests and Climate Continual Change, Many Possibilities Dean Hal Salwasser Why Should We Care? Forests: Keystone ecosystem for a livable earth Water, fish, wildlife, wood, jobs, wealth, air 50% global
More informationVulnerability of Northern Forests and Forestry:
Vulnerability of Northern Forests and Forestry: The Disturbing Influence of Climate Mike Apps & Werner Kurz Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Pacific Forestry Centre Victoria, BC 1 Outline
More informationClimate Change. Predictions
Climate Change Predictions Spring 09 UC Berkeley Traeger 1 Climate Change 93 Source: IPCC (2007), WG1 Spring 09 UC Berkeley Traeger 1 Climate Change 94 Source: IPCC (2007), WG1 Spring 09 UC Berkeley Traeger
More informationLand Cover and Land Use Change and its Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Monsoon Asia Region. Atul Jain. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL USA
Land Cover and Land Use Change and its Effects on Carbon Dynamics in Monsoon Asia Region Atul Jain University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL USA Email: jain1@uiuc.edu Terrestrial Ecosystems, Land Use
More informationCurrent understanding of global climate change and of its possible impacts on agriculture. Maurizio Sciortino.
Current understanding of global climate change and of its possible impacts on agriculture Maurizio Sciortino maurizio.sciortino@enea.it Outline 1. Scientific understanding of climate change The greenhouse
More informationOn the climate challenge and northsouth technology collaboration
www.bjerknes.uib.no On the climate challenge and northsouth technology collaboration Helge Drange helge.drange@nersc.no Outline 1) Global climate: Status 2) Climate change adaptation 3) Examples Typhoons
More informationScientific Foundation of Climate Change. Human Responsibility for Climate Change
Scientific Foundation of Climate Change EOH 468 CSU Northridge Spring 2010 Peter Bellin, CIH, Ph.D. 1 Human Responsibility for Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is very likely that emissions of heat-trapping
More informationAgricultural practices that favour the increase of soil organic matter. Philippe Ciais and Pete Smith
Agricultural practices that favour the increase of soil organic matter Philippe Ciais and Pete Smith Outline Current soil C stocks distribution Vulnerability of soil C Land use change Agricultural practice
More informationTerrestrial Carbon Cycle, Part 1
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle, Part 1 Dennis Baldocchi Ecosystem Science Division/ESPM University of California, Berkeley 3/11/2013 NBP NEP GPP NPP R h R a Schulze, 2006 Biogeosciences 1 Terms and Units Gross
More informationMajor Feedbacks originating from Northern Eurasia that are of global change concern
Major Feedbacks originating from Northern Eurasia that are of global change concern Guy P. Brasseur National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO Regions of Strong Influences on the Global Earth
More information9. Ocean Carbonate Chemistry II: Ocean Distributions
9. Ocean Carbonate Chemistry II: Ocean Distributions What is the distribution of CO 2 added to the ocean? - Ocean distributions - Controls on distributions 1 Takahashi (Surface Ocean) pco 2 Climatology
More informationForests in a Changing Climate - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Forests in a Changing Climate - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Andreas Fischlin Coordinating Lead Author Chapter «Ecosystems», WG II, Fourth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
More informationESA-7. Climate Change A Brief Primer
ESA-7 Climate Change A Brief Primer Keywan Riahi riahi@iiasa.ac.at Energy Systems Analysis The IPCC Scientific body set up by WMO and UNEP Periodic Assessment Reports (AR5 in 2014) Hundreds of Scientists
More informationLecture 28: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change
Lecture 28: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change 1. Radiative Forcing In an unperturbed state, the net incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere (Sn) must be balanced by the outgoing longwave
More informationESA-7. Climate Change A Brief Primer. The IPCC. Keywan Riahi
ESA-7 Climate Change A Brief Primer Keywan Riahi riahi@iiasa.ac.at The IPCC Scientific body set up by WMO and UNEP Periodic Assessment Reports (AR5 in 2014) Hundreds of Scientists involved as Authors and
More informationThe Carbon Cycle and Energy Security
The Carbon Cycle and Energy Security EQ1: How does the carbon cycle operate to maintain planetary health? 6 & 8 markers = AO1. 12 & 20 markers = AO1 and AO2 larger weighting Carbon cycle Fluxes IPCC Anthropogenic
More informationState of knowledge: Quantifying Forest C capacity and potential. Tara Hudiburg NAS Terrestrial Carbon Workshop September 19 th, 2017
State of knowledge: Quantifying Forest C capacity and potential Tara Hudiburg NAS Terrestrial Carbon Workshop September 19 th, 2017 Global Forest Cover http://www.wri.org/resource/state-worlds-forests
More informationHideki Kanamaru Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division, FAO 13 February 2008
Highlights of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) food, agriculture and ecosystems Hideki Kanamaru Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division, FAO 13 February 2008 Observed changes since 1850
More informationCarboZALF and greenhouse gas emission research
CarboZALF and greenhouse gas emission research Jürgen Augustin Müncheberg, March 17th 2010 Role of terrestrial biosphere in the anthropogenic carbon cycle is unclear (reduced sink efficiency?) fossil fuel
More informationSoils and Climate Change
Soils and Climate Change Susan Trumbore Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry and Earth System Science, UC Irvine thanks to Marion Schrumpf, MPI-BGC and EAG Schuur, Northern Arizona University CO 2
More informationNSTA Web Seminar: The Heat is On! Climate Change and Coral Reef Ecosystems
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminar: The Heat is On! Climate Change and Coral Reef Ecosystems Ocean Acidification Presented by Dr. Dwight Gledhill, NOAA Thursday, April 2, 2009 Ocean
More informationNon-boreal forests of Eastern Europe in a changing world - the role in functioning the Earth System
Non-boreal forests of Eastern Europe in a changing world - the role in functioning the Earth System Anatoly Shvidenko Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB, Russian Academy of Sciences; International Institute
More informationCarbon Stocks and Emissions of Malaysian Forests
Carbon Stocks and Emissions of Malaysian Forests Abd Latif M., Ismail H., & Elizabeth P. Forest Research Institute Malaysia 52109 Kepong, Selangor, Malaysia ISO 9001 : 2008 www.frim.gov.my Content Background
More informationThe role of forests in addressing Climate Change in the Mediterranean
The role of forests in addressing Climate Change in the Mediterranean Prof. Riccardo Valentini University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy and CMCC RUDN University, Moscow, Russia The future of Climate Scenarios
More informationWikiLeaks Document Release
WikiLeaks Document Release February 2, 2009 Congressional Research Service Report RL34059 The Carbon Cycle: Implications for Climate Change and Congress Peter Folger, Resources, Science, and Industry Division
More informationClimate Change Detection and Scenarios: Re-examining the Evidence
WMO O Climate Change Detection and Scenarios: Re-examining the Evidence UNEP By Dr. R.K. Pachauri Director General, TERI and Chairman, IPCC At Yale Center for the Study of Globalization 21 st October 2005
More informationThe carbon cycle and forest-climate interactions: principles and considerations Werner A. Kurz Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service
The carbon cycle and forest-climate interactions: principles and considerations Werner A. Kurz Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Forests and the climate: Manage for maximum wood production
More informationProf Brendan Mackey, PhD
Role of forests in global carbon cycle and mitigation Presentation for Land use and Forests in the Paris Agreement, real world implications of negative emissions and Bioenergy CCS (BECCS) May 12 th & 13
More information1.1 The Greenhouse Effect
1.1 The Greenhouse Effect The Atmosphere s Role on the Greenhouse Effect Energy flows, expressed in W/m 2 with or without greenhouse gases (GHG) 342 17 342 17 235 235 235-19 C 67 168 +14 C Source: after
More informationPeter Cox Professor of Climate System Dynamics University of Exeter
Tipping Points in the Response of the Biosphere to Climate Change How can we predict the unpredictable? Peter Cox Professor of Climate System Dynamics University of Exeter Definitions of Tipping Point
More informationCarbon Dioxide, Alkalinity and ph
Carbon Dioxide, Alkalinity and ph OCN 62 Chemical Oceanography Reading: Libes, Chapter 15, pp. 8 94 (Remainder of chapter: Biogenic production, carbonate saturation and sediment distributions ) 1. CO 2
More informationOverview of Climate Change Impacts
Overview of Climate Change Impacts David A Warrilow Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Climate change and sustainable development New Delhi, 7-8 April 2006 Widespread impacts on the natural
More informationMitigation Delay Sensitivity: A new policy-relevant metric
IPRC Seminar 15. August 2016 Mitigation Delay Sensitivity: A new policy-relevant metric Thomas Stocker Climate and Environmental Physics Physics Institute, University of Bern Switzerland In collaboration
More informationThe Scientific Foundations for Policy. Copenhagen and. The Arctic Region in a Climate Change World
The Arctic Region in a Climate Change World The Scientific Foundations for Policy Pathways for Copenhagen and Beyond Dr. Robert W. Corell, Chair of the Climate Action Initiative, an International Partnership
More informationHow Bad is it??? Nancy Marley University of Arkansas at Little Rock. June 9, 2008
How Bad is it??? Nancy Marley University of Arkansas at Little Rock June 9, 2008 World Meteorological Organization IPCC United Nations Environment Programme Established IPCC in 1998 Includes over 2,000
More informationLecture 27: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change
Lecture 27: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change 1. Radiative Forcing In an unperturbed state, the net incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere (Sn) must be balanced by the outgoing longwave
More informationResearch Interest. Wenhong Li EOS, Nicholas School, Duke University, August 3, 2013
Research Interest Hydrological Cycle Climate Dynamics and Climate modeling Land surface - atmosphere interaction Impact of climate variability and change on carbon cycle Wenhong Li EOS, Nicholas School,
More informationCurrent Update on Climate Science
Current Update on Climate Science Ben Santer Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550 Email: santer1@llnl.gov 3 rd Annual CAFE
More information7.014 Lecture 20: Biogeochemical Cycles April 1, 2007
Global Nutrient Cycling - Biogeochemical Cycles 7.14 Lecture 2: Biogeochemical Cycles April 1, 27 Uptake Bioelements in Solution Weathering Precipitation Terrestrial Biomass Decomposition Volatile Elements
More informationMulticentury Climate Warming Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry
Multicentury Climate Warming Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry Prof. J. Keith Moore University of California, Irvine Collaborators: Weiwei Fu, Francois Primeau, Greg Britten, Keith Lindsay, Matthew Long,
More informationCarbon Dioxide, Alkalinity and ph
Carbon Dioxide, Alkalinity and ph OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 31 January 2013 Reading: Libes, Chapter 15, pp. 383 394 (Remainder of chapter will be used with the lecture: Biogenic production, carbonate
More informationThe relationship between land use and climate change:
The relationship between land use and climate change: a historical overview By Rik Leemans Diatoms on the floating leaves of the waterlilly PhD Dynamics of boreal forests (seedlings & trees) IIASA Laxenburg
More information