Power price outlook for DK1 and DK2

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1 Power price outlook for DK1 and DK2 Montel Danish Energy Day, Copenhagen, 7 th of September 2017 Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com

2 SRMC coal-fired generation still relevant for Nordic Power prices until 2025 Until 2020: Nordic power prices slightly below SRMC coal-fired : Nordic power prices close to SRMC coal-fired : Nordic power prices to touch SRMC gas-fired (46 ) 2

3 New trend in coal markets from 2016 onwards Front month February 2016: Bottom level hit for coal contracts at 37 $/t, following 4-5 years of bearmarket amid persisting oversupply Chinese regulations on coal supply from April onwards changed the global balance rapidly Overall bullish coal market for rest of 2016 Low investments in supply after low price period. Chinese closure of thousands of (small) mines French/European nuclear outages gave additional bullish effect July-November Coal prices are in Chinese regulators hands from April 2016 onwards. Price projections are more or less political speculations on what regulations to come and when implemented 3

4 Coal-markets: Increasing during summer 2017 May-August: Bullish influence from China/Asia China: all time high power generation in July, up 7.9% y-o-y. Chinese thermal generation, up 11.4% y-o-y Low stocks in China and India, resp. 18% and 36% below historical levels Low investments in supply after low price period. Chinese closure of thousands of (small) mines Our view: potential for 4 $/t lift in 3 month s perspective 4

5 MK Coal price scenarios of June 2017 Coal price development applied in our analysis, ref. CIF ARA $(2017)/ ton Price perspectives : Perret Associates «Long Term Price Forecast , April 2017 Price perspectives : market prices as of early June 2017 Long-term lift: related to low investments in mining industry and increasing demand for coal in several countries Series2 Series3 Series4 5

6 EU ETS how can prices increase with abundant oversupply? CO2 market during 2017: We expect prices to increase somewhat: Dec-17 contract delivery to 6.50 /t. Price drivers: MSR negotiations, higher industrial performance Long term CO2 market: The Market Stability Reserve will eventually ensure a significantly tighter market. We expect MSR intake rate to become 24% price target: 14 /t Long term CO2 market: Unsustainable development in non-traded European emission sectors is likely to have implications for carbon demand 6

7 Market Stability Reserve to ensure scarcity of allowances [Mt CO2] Long term carbon credit balance with the impacts of the Market Stability Reserve, considering the full scope of EU ETS (based on recent price levels) The Market Stability Reserve is about to becoming strenghtened > 24% withdrawal rate is likely Now: our base scenario % MSR scenario 24% MSR scenario 7

8 EUA price forecasts Low scenario, long term: We expect EUAs at 5 /t as an average over the period Base scenario, long term: We expect EUAs at 14 /t as an average over the period High scenario, long term: We forecast 24 /t as an average over the period, reflecting EU ETS being tightened in order to contribute to a 1.5 degrees Celsius target 8

9 Industrial electricity consumption in Europe [TWh] Industrial power consumption for top 8 EU ETS countries Rising industrial activity, large differences among manufacturing sectors Steel sector: We expect 4-5 TWh increase in 2017 Chemical sector: We expect 4-5 TWh increase in 2017 Other sectors: We expect 4-5 TWh increase in 2017 Total industrial electricity consumption: We expect TWh increase in Actual power consumption Expected power consumption

10 Impact on the Nordic market from emerging technologies Data storage: We expect approx 10.5 TWh of increases in electricity consumption towards 2030 in the Nordic countries. Expected increase towards 2020: 4 TWh Electromobility: We assume 10 TWh of increases in electricity from electric vehicles towards 2030 in the Nordic countries. Expected increase towards 2020: 2 TWh (lion s share: Norway) Solar/battery storage for households: We assume only small amounts of solar power generation in 2030 (2.5 TWh/y in Denmark, 2 TWh/y in Sweden) Other storage: Expecting a rather insignificant development of alternative storage 10

11 Danish power balance (TWh/y) Year Wind power* Solar power CHP Thermal Consumption* Balance ,0 0,6 15,0 4,6 33,6-1, ,5 0,7 14,3 4,6 33,6-0, ,1 0,7 15,0 3,4 33,9-0, ,9 0,8 15,0 3,0 34,4-0, ,4 0,9 15,1 2,5 34,8 0, ,3 1,0 15,3 2,3 35,3 2, ,7 1,1 15,5 2,1 35,8 3, ,0 1,2 15,5 1,9 36,4 4, ,6 1,3 15,5 1,7 37,0 4, ,2 1,5 15,5 1,5 37,6 4, ,8 1,7 15,5 1,3 38,3 3, ,3 1,9 15,4 1,1 39,0 3, ,8 2,1 15,3 0,9 39,5 4, ,7 2,3 15,2 0,7 40,0 4, ,6 2,4 15,1 0,5 40,5 4, ,2 2,6 14,9 0,2 40,9 4, ,7 2,9 14,7 0,0 41,1 6, ,3 3,3 14,5 0,0 41,3 6, ,8 3,6 14,3 0,0 41,6 8, ,2 3,8 14,1 0,0 41,8 9, ,7 4,1 13,9 0,0 42,0 8, ,2 4,3 13,7 0,0 42,2 9, ,4 4,6 13,5 0,0 42,4 10, ,8 4,8 13,3 0,0 42,6 10, ,5 4,9 13,1 0,0 42,8 9, ,8 5,0 12,9 0,0 43,1 10,6 11

12 Nordic power balance (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* power others Wind CHP Nuclear Solar power CHP bio elcert Thermal Consumption Balance ,8 87,7 33,5 0,7 4,4 45,4 12,1 397,9-4, ,1 84,2 37,4 0,8 4,6 44,9 12,5 397,4-2, ,8 82,1 40,0 0,8 5,7 46,7 11,1 397,6 0, ,6 83,2 43,4 0,9 5,9 46,8 10,2 401,5 1, ,5 93,5 47,2 1,1 6,4 47,1 9,5 403,7 14, ,2 87,0 52,4 1,4 6,5 47,4 8,8 406,3 11, ,3 83,6 55,0 1,7 6,2 48,0 8,3 407,8 9, ,5 83,6 57,5 1,9 6,2 48,3 7,8 409,5 10, ,7 83,6 59,3 2,2 6,3 48,9 7,3 411,4 10, ,9 83,6 61,2 2,5 6,1 50,4 6,6 413,1 12, ,2 93,0 63,1 2,8 6,0 50,8 5,9 414,7 22, ,6 93,0 64,7 3,2 5,3 51,2 5,3 416,1 22, ,0 93,0 68,7 3,5 4,2 51,3 4,8 417,5 24, ,4 89,0 71,4 3,9 4,5 50,8 4,3 418,9 21, ,8 85,0 73,1 4,1 4,2 50,4 3,8 420,3 17, ,3 85,0 75,9 4,4 4,2 50,7 3,2 421,6 19, ,7 85,0 77,6 4,8 4,1 50,7 2,8 421,9 20, ,1 85,0 78,6 5,3 4,0 51,2 2,6 422,3 22, ,5 85,0 80,8 5,7 3,9 51,6 2,4 422,6 25, ,9 85,0 82,3 6,0 3,8 52,9 2,2 423,0 28, ,4 85,0 81,8 6,4 3,5 53,4 2,0 423,3 28, ,7 85,0 82,4 6,7 3,3 53,9 2,0 423,7 29, ,0 85,0 84,8 7,1 3,0 54,4 2,0 424,0 32, ,3 79,0 86,8 7,4 3,1 54,6 2,0 424,5 28, ,6 68,0 89,0 7,7 2,8 55,2 2,0 424,8 20, ,9 56,0 92,9 8,0 2,5 55,7 2,0 425,0 13,1 12

13 Infrastructure internal and external grid extensions Year Internal links Capacity (MW) 2018 SouthWes t-link Swe Ørs kog-fardal Finland-Sweden Finland-Sweden Jutland-Zealand 600 Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) 2019 Jutland-Germany Jutland-Netherlands Zealand-Germany (Kriegers Flak) Norway-Germany Norway-UK Sweden-Lithuania Jutland-Germany Jutland-UK Sweden-Germany Norway-UK Zealand-Germany 700 Major impact from three links to UK: Norway-UK 2022, Jutland-UK 2023 and Norway-UK 2028 Minor impact from five links to Germany: two to Jutland 2019/2023, one to Norway 2020, one to Sweden 2027 and one to Zealand 2030 Upgrade of Finland-Sweden connections: in north 800 MW and in south 250 MW 13

14 Integration of European power systems: UK and Germany Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) Existing France-UK (IFA-1986) Existing Netherlands-UK (BritNed-2011) Existing Ireland-UK (Moyle-2002) 450 Existing Ireland-UK (EWIC-2012) Bel gi um-uk (Nemo) Fra nce-uk (El ecli nk) Fra nce-uk (IFA2) Fra nce-uk (FAB, Al derney) Norwa y-uk (NSN) Denmark-UK (Viking cable) (Norwa y-uk NorthConnect) Total new capacity Year Transmission links Import Capacity (GW) Export Capacity (GW) 2015 Existing capacity 17,0 14, Germany-Netherlands 0,3 0, Germany-Poland 0,5 1, Germany-Netherlands 1,5 1, Germany-Belgium (Alegro) 1,1 1, Germany-Austria 1,5 1, Germany-Zealand 0,4 0, Germany-Jutland 1,0 0, Germany-Norway 1,4 1, Germany-Poland 1,0 1, Germany-Switzerland 3,4 1, Germany-Sweden 0,7 0, Germany-Netherlands 0,5 0, Germany-Poland 1,5 1,5 Total capacity > 29,8 > 26,0 14

15 Denmark: Many external connections => transit region Energinet.dk grid expansion plan of 2016 New connections : Kriegers Flak, Germany MW COBRA cable link, Holland 700 MW 2019 Upgrade Jutland-Germany 1000 MW 2019 Viking link 1400 MW, late 2022 New link Jutland-Germany 1000 MW, late

16 Jutland: Transit region with central station at Endrup Energinet.dk grid expansion plan of 2016 New connections : Horns Rev C 400 MW offshore wind 2016 (I5 Stovstrup) Banedanmark 2016 (I1 Lykkegård/Andst) Apple data central 2017 (I2 Tjele) Facebook data central 2018 (I3 Fraugde) New data central (I4 Blåbjerg) COBRA cable link, Holland 700 MW 2019 (I8 Endrup) Upgrade Jutland-Germany 1000 MW 2019 (I9) Viking link 1400 MW, late 2022 (P6 Endrup) New link Jutland-Germany 1000 MW, late 2022 (P7 Endrup) Upgrade of grid north in Jutland (P8) 16

17 Zealand: Kriegers Flak 2018, upgrade of grid in north Energinet.dk grid expansion plan of 2016 New connections : Offshore wind farm Kriegers Flak 2018, 600 MW (I7) Kriegers Flak cable link 2018, Germany 400 MW (I10) New biomass power plant Amagerværket 2018 (P5) Banedanmark 2019 (P1 H.C. Ørsted, Ringsted) Upgrade of grid north in Zealand 2019 (P2) 17

18 German connections to Nordic: strong capacity expansion Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) 2017 Jutland-Germany Jutland-Germany Zealand-Germany (Kriegers Flak) Norway-Germany Jutland-Germany Total Nordic-Germany Jutland-Germany to full capacity 2500 MW by 2019, after often being at MW latest years Germany to introduce restrictions for power flow to Austria from October 2017 onwards: will limit power flow from north to south in Germany When high German wind power generation in north: exports will find the way to Nordic area, mostly at off-peak Strong capacity expansions to Germany until 2023 In total: we assume nearly zero net power flow Nordic area-german area on average. But windy periods will generate large net German power flow to the Nordic area 18

19 The Macron election victory -> strongly affecting 2026 power flow Northwestern Europe 2026 SRMC gas SRMC coal «The green zone»: No coal-fired, less nuclear UK: 15 TWh nuclear phase-out, wind+solar doubled France: 60 TWh nuclear phase-out, wind+solar more than doubled Belgium: 40 TWh nuclear phase-out, wind+solar more than doubled Consumption UK/FR/BE: Sideways In total: generation sources with low SRMC s are reduced Gas-fired generation on the margin: 80-85% of time 19

20 The Macron election victory -> strongly affecting 2026 power flow Power exports to UK: 11 TWh/y per cable link When all three links in operation: 33 TWh/y of power exports from Nordic area to UK By 2028: The Nordic area will import power from Russia (6 TWh/y), Germany (5 TWh/y) and Netherlands (2 TWh/y) 20

21 Long term price assumptions for neighbouring countries UK prices: SRMC gas with CO2-tax German, Dutch prices: SRMC coal, some SRMC gas on peak periods Russian prices: Low off-peak periods at SRMC CHP with low-priced gas 21

22 Nordic Power price scenarios : MKonline s three latest base scenario calculations Our base forecasts have been lifted stepwise lately Coal price expectations were lifted in Dec and June 2017 editions EUA price expectations were lifted in Dec and March 2017 UK price perspectives lifted in June 2017 edition 22

23 Simulated mid-term Danish area prices Simulated area Prices in nominal terms /MWh. 31 st of August Input: market prices of coal and EUAs Product Market System DK1 DK2 31. aug. MOCT-17 Eur 30,6 28,3 28,5 29,6 Q4-17 Eur 31,5 29,4 29,8 30,9 Q1-18 Eur 33,0 34,2 34,5 35,8 Q2-18 Eur 25,6 27,8 28,1 29,1 Q3-18 Eur 23,4 25,8 26,8 28,0 Q4-18 Eur 27,6 30,4 30,0 31,1 YR-18 Eur 27,1 29,6 29,9 31,1 YR-19 Eur 24,5 29,3 29,6 30,5 YR-20 Eur 24,2 29,3 29,4 30,3 YR-21 Eur 25,1 29,2 30,0 30,6 EPADs DK1 Oct-17: +3.5, Q4:+1.3, Q1: -0.7, Years EPADs DK2 Oct-17: +7, Q4:+4, Q1: +2, Years

24 Short term development: large changes the coming months Hydrological situation: close to normal level Latest week we observed high DK2/SE3/SE4/FI/Baltic prices: low wind, low nuclear production Seasonal lift of MW in consumption to come Nuclear start-up: 6000 MW in pipeline, extraordinary low now CHP/Wind power generation: increase 4000 MW under average seasonal conditions Oslofjord cables/hasle link back in operation early October: 1400 MW more capacity NO1-> SE3 SRMC of coal: to remain at high levels, support spot prices Our simulated prices vs. market prices as of 6th of September 2017 Products MKonline expectations Market prices 6th of Sept Deviation to market Q ,3 30,7-0,4 Q ,0 32,5 2,5 24

25 Simulated long-term Danish area prices: Base scenario Area Prices in the base scenario [real 2017 /MWh]. June 2017 LTP-edition Year System Jutland Zealand ,2 27,7 29, ,3 25,4 26, ,0 24,3 25, ,7 25,3 26, ,4 38,0 39, ,2 39,9 41, ,0 41,5 42, ,1 43,1 43, ,8 43,0 43, ,4 42,4 42, ,5 42,2 42, ,0 42,9 42, ,7 43,0 42, ,0 43,1 43, ,1 43,2 43, ,2 43,2 43, ,2 43,2 43, ,1 43,2 43, ,1 43,1 43,1 25

26 Simulated Nordic Area prices: Base scenario Low NO4, SE1, SE2 and Finland area prices. High NO1, NO2, NO5 and NO3 area prices Area Prices in the base scenario [2017 /MWh]. June 2017 LTP-edition Year System NO1 NO2 NO5 NO3 NO4 SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4 Finland Jutland Zealand ,2 27,4 27,6 27,4 27,9 23,1 28,1 28,1 28,7 29,0 32,6 27,7 29, ,3 25,8 25,7 25,7 26,2 25,5 25,9 25,9 26,4 26,4 33,2 25,4 26, ,0 24,7 24,6 24,7 25,0 24,1 24,4 24,4 25,0 25,0 27,4 24,3 25, ,7 25,4 25,4 25,4 25,4 23,5 24,6 24,6 26,1 26,1 27,0 25,3 26, ,4 39,4 39,3 39,3 39,3 37,9 38,4 38,4 38,9 39,0 38,8 38,0 39, ,2 40,1 40,1 40,0 40,0 38,0 39,1 39,1 39,8 39,8 39,7 39,9 41, ,0 41,9 41,9 41,9 41,8 39,7 40,4 40,4 41,2 41,2 41,0 41,5 42, ,1 43,0 43,0 43,0 42,9 40,6 41,1 41,1 42,0 42,0 41,8 43,1 43, ,8 42,9 42,9 42,8 42,7 40,5 40,3 40,4 41,1 41,1 40,3 43,0 43, ,4 42,4 42,4 42,4 42,3 40,0 39,7 39,7 40,6 40,6 39,7 42,4 42, ,5 42,5 42,5 42,4 42,4 39,9 39,5 39,5 40,6 40,7 39,5 42,2 42, ,0 44,1 44,2 44,0 43,9 40,9 40,6 40,6 41,7 41,7 41,0 42,9 42, ,7 44,8 44,8 44,7 44,6 41,5 40,7 40,7 41,9 41,9 41,1 43,0 42, ,0 45,1 45,1 45,0 44,9 41,7 40,9 40,9 42,1 42,1 41,5 43,1 43, ,1 45,2 45,2 45,1 45,0 41,9 41,1 41,1 42,2 42,3 41,7 43,2 43, ,2 45,3 45,3 45,2 45,1 42,0 41,1 41,1 42,2 42,3 41,6 43,2 43, ,2 45,3 45,3 45,2 45,1 42,0 41,0 41,0 42,2 42,2 41,4 43,2 43, ,1 45,3 45,3 45,2 45,1 42,0 40,9 40,9 42,1 42,1 41,3 43,2 43, ,1 45,2 45,2 45,1 45,0 41,9 40,8 40,9 42,0 42,1 41,1 43,1 43,1 26

27 Nordic year contracts now: Low-priced Our simulated prices vs. market prices for year-products as of 6th of September All figures in nominal /MWh Year MKonline Base expectations Market prices 6th of Sept Deviation to market Yr-17 29,2 29,6-0,4 Yr-18 30,3 27,7 2,6 Yr-19 30,0 25,1 4,9 Yr-20 30,1 24,9 5,2 Yr-21 30,1 25,8 4,3 Yr-22 32,2 26,5 5,7 Yr-22 43,3 26,5 16,8 Yr-23 45,9 29,3 16,6 Yr-24 47,8 29,9 17,9 Yr-25 48,3 30,4 17,9 Yr-26 48,5 30,9 17,6 Yr-27 49,4 31,2 18,2 Please note a major explanation for year 2022: MKonline Base expectations in black are prognoses as presented in our Forward Overview report 6th of September 2017, applying market prices for coal and EUAs as input. MKonline Base expectations in blue are simulated power prices as presented in our June 2017 LTP-report, applying MKonline expectations to coal and EUAs and converted to nominal values. More hedging among generators than among consumers, new entrants from new, renewable generation Low liquidity in the far end of the curve: One trade may change the price significantly Not fully included: early nuclear phaseout/new export capacity Wet/windy/mild weather over-represented? For long term perspective: Forward market do not include any lift in coal and EUAs, like we do 27

28 Thank you for your attention Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis

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