Power price outlook for DK1 and DK2
|
|
- Ashlee Joseph
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Power price outlook for DK1 and DK2 Montel Danish Energy Day, Copenhagen, 7 th of September 2017 Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com
2 SRMC coal-fired generation still relevant for Nordic Power prices until 2025 Until 2020: Nordic power prices slightly below SRMC coal-fired : Nordic power prices close to SRMC coal-fired : Nordic power prices to touch SRMC gas-fired (46 ) 2
3 New trend in coal markets from 2016 onwards Front month February 2016: Bottom level hit for coal contracts at 37 $/t, following 4-5 years of bearmarket amid persisting oversupply Chinese regulations on coal supply from April onwards changed the global balance rapidly Overall bullish coal market for rest of 2016 Low investments in supply after low price period. Chinese closure of thousands of (small) mines French/European nuclear outages gave additional bullish effect July-November Coal prices are in Chinese regulators hands from April 2016 onwards. Price projections are more or less political speculations on what regulations to come and when implemented 3
4 Coal-markets: Increasing during summer 2017 May-August: Bullish influence from China/Asia China: all time high power generation in July, up 7.9% y-o-y. Chinese thermal generation, up 11.4% y-o-y Low stocks in China and India, resp. 18% and 36% below historical levels Low investments in supply after low price period. Chinese closure of thousands of (small) mines Our view: potential for 4 $/t lift in 3 month s perspective 4
5 MK Coal price scenarios of June 2017 Coal price development applied in our analysis, ref. CIF ARA $(2017)/ ton Price perspectives : Perret Associates «Long Term Price Forecast , April 2017 Price perspectives : market prices as of early June 2017 Long-term lift: related to low investments in mining industry and increasing demand for coal in several countries Series2 Series3 Series4 5
6 EU ETS how can prices increase with abundant oversupply? CO2 market during 2017: We expect prices to increase somewhat: Dec-17 contract delivery to 6.50 /t. Price drivers: MSR negotiations, higher industrial performance Long term CO2 market: The Market Stability Reserve will eventually ensure a significantly tighter market. We expect MSR intake rate to become 24% price target: 14 /t Long term CO2 market: Unsustainable development in non-traded European emission sectors is likely to have implications for carbon demand 6
7 Market Stability Reserve to ensure scarcity of allowances [Mt CO2] Long term carbon credit balance with the impacts of the Market Stability Reserve, considering the full scope of EU ETS (based on recent price levels) The Market Stability Reserve is about to becoming strenghtened > 24% withdrawal rate is likely Now: our base scenario % MSR scenario 24% MSR scenario 7
8 EUA price forecasts Low scenario, long term: We expect EUAs at 5 /t as an average over the period Base scenario, long term: We expect EUAs at 14 /t as an average over the period High scenario, long term: We forecast 24 /t as an average over the period, reflecting EU ETS being tightened in order to contribute to a 1.5 degrees Celsius target 8
9 Industrial electricity consumption in Europe [TWh] Industrial power consumption for top 8 EU ETS countries Rising industrial activity, large differences among manufacturing sectors Steel sector: We expect 4-5 TWh increase in 2017 Chemical sector: We expect 4-5 TWh increase in 2017 Other sectors: We expect 4-5 TWh increase in 2017 Total industrial electricity consumption: We expect TWh increase in Actual power consumption Expected power consumption
10 Impact on the Nordic market from emerging technologies Data storage: We expect approx 10.5 TWh of increases in electricity consumption towards 2030 in the Nordic countries. Expected increase towards 2020: 4 TWh Electromobility: We assume 10 TWh of increases in electricity from electric vehicles towards 2030 in the Nordic countries. Expected increase towards 2020: 2 TWh (lion s share: Norway) Solar/battery storage for households: We assume only small amounts of solar power generation in 2030 (2.5 TWh/y in Denmark, 2 TWh/y in Sweden) Other storage: Expecting a rather insignificant development of alternative storage 10
11 Danish power balance (TWh/y) Year Wind power* Solar power CHP Thermal Consumption* Balance ,0 0,6 15,0 4,6 33,6-1, ,5 0,7 14,3 4,6 33,6-0, ,1 0,7 15,0 3,4 33,9-0, ,9 0,8 15,0 3,0 34,4-0, ,4 0,9 15,1 2,5 34,8 0, ,3 1,0 15,3 2,3 35,3 2, ,7 1,1 15,5 2,1 35,8 3, ,0 1,2 15,5 1,9 36,4 4, ,6 1,3 15,5 1,7 37,0 4, ,2 1,5 15,5 1,5 37,6 4, ,8 1,7 15,5 1,3 38,3 3, ,3 1,9 15,4 1,1 39,0 3, ,8 2,1 15,3 0,9 39,5 4, ,7 2,3 15,2 0,7 40,0 4, ,6 2,4 15,1 0,5 40,5 4, ,2 2,6 14,9 0,2 40,9 4, ,7 2,9 14,7 0,0 41,1 6, ,3 3,3 14,5 0,0 41,3 6, ,8 3,6 14,3 0,0 41,6 8, ,2 3,8 14,1 0,0 41,8 9, ,7 4,1 13,9 0,0 42,0 8, ,2 4,3 13,7 0,0 42,2 9, ,4 4,6 13,5 0,0 42,4 10, ,8 4,8 13,3 0,0 42,6 10, ,5 4,9 13,1 0,0 42,8 9, ,8 5,0 12,9 0,0 43,1 10,6 11
12 Nordic power balance (in TWh/y) Year Hydropower* power others Wind CHP Nuclear Solar power CHP bio elcert Thermal Consumption Balance ,8 87,7 33,5 0,7 4,4 45,4 12,1 397,9-4, ,1 84,2 37,4 0,8 4,6 44,9 12,5 397,4-2, ,8 82,1 40,0 0,8 5,7 46,7 11,1 397,6 0, ,6 83,2 43,4 0,9 5,9 46,8 10,2 401,5 1, ,5 93,5 47,2 1,1 6,4 47,1 9,5 403,7 14, ,2 87,0 52,4 1,4 6,5 47,4 8,8 406,3 11, ,3 83,6 55,0 1,7 6,2 48,0 8,3 407,8 9, ,5 83,6 57,5 1,9 6,2 48,3 7,8 409,5 10, ,7 83,6 59,3 2,2 6,3 48,9 7,3 411,4 10, ,9 83,6 61,2 2,5 6,1 50,4 6,6 413,1 12, ,2 93,0 63,1 2,8 6,0 50,8 5,9 414,7 22, ,6 93,0 64,7 3,2 5,3 51,2 5,3 416,1 22, ,0 93,0 68,7 3,5 4,2 51,3 4,8 417,5 24, ,4 89,0 71,4 3,9 4,5 50,8 4,3 418,9 21, ,8 85,0 73,1 4,1 4,2 50,4 3,8 420,3 17, ,3 85,0 75,9 4,4 4,2 50,7 3,2 421,6 19, ,7 85,0 77,6 4,8 4,1 50,7 2,8 421,9 20, ,1 85,0 78,6 5,3 4,0 51,2 2,6 422,3 22, ,5 85,0 80,8 5,7 3,9 51,6 2,4 422,6 25, ,9 85,0 82,3 6,0 3,8 52,9 2,2 423,0 28, ,4 85,0 81,8 6,4 3,5 53,4 2,0 423,3 28, ,7 85,0 82,4 6,7 3,3 53,9 2,0 423,7 29, ,0 85,0 84,8 7,1 3,0 54,4 2,0 424,0 32, ,3 79,0 86,8 7,4 3,1 54,6 2,0 424,5 28, ,6 68,0 89,0 7,7 2,8 55,2 2,0 424,8 20, ,9 56,0 92,9 8,0 2,5 55,7 2,0 425,0 13,1 12
13 Infrastructure internal and external grid extensions Year Internal links Capacity (MW) 2018 SouthWes t-link Swe Ørs kog-fardal Finland-Sweden Finland-Sweden Jutland-Zealand 600 Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) 2019 Jutland-Germany Jutland-Netherlands Zealand-Germany (Kriegers Flak) Norway-Germany Norway-UK Sweden-Lithuania Jutland-Germany Jutland-UK Sweden-Germany Norway-UK Zealand-Germany 700 Major impact from three links to UK: Norway-UK 2022, Jutland-UK 2023 and Norway-UK 2028 Minor impact from five links to Germany: two to Jutland 2019/2023, one to Norway 2020, one to Sweden 2027 and one to Zealand 2030 Upgrade of Finland-Sweden connections: in north 800 MW and in south 250 MW 13
14 Integration of European power systems: UK and Germany Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) Existing France-UK (IFA-1986) Existing Netherlands-UK (BritNed-2011) Existing Ireland-UK (Moyle-2002) 450 Existing Ireland-UK (EWIC-2012) Bel gi um-uk (Nemo) Fra nce-uk (El ecli nk) Fra nce-uk (IFA2) Fra nce-uk (FAB, Al derney) Norwa y-uk (NSN) Denmark-UK (Viking cable) (Norwa y-uk NorthConnect) Total new capacity Year Transmission links Import Capacity (GW) Export Capacity (GW) 2015 Existing capacity 17,0 14, Germany-Netherlands 0,3 0, Germany-Poland 0,5 1, Germany-Netherlands 1,5 1, Germany-Belgium (Alegro) 1,1 1, Germany-Austria 1,5 1, Germany-Zealand 0,4 0, Germany-Jutland 1,0 0, Germany-Norway 1,4 1, Germany-Poland 1,0 1, Germany-Switzerland 3,4 1, Germany-Sweden 0,7 0, Germany-Netherlands 0,5 0, Germany-Poland 1,5 1,5 Total capacity > 29,8 > 26,0 14
15 Denmark: Many external connections => transit region Energinet.dk grid expansion plan of 2016 New connections : Kriegers Flak, Germany MW COBRA cable link, Holland 700 MW 2019 Upgrade Jutland-Germany 1000 MW 2019 Viking link 1400 MW, late 2022 New link Jutland-Germany 1000 MW, late
16 Jutland: Transit region with central station at Endrup Energinet.dk grid expansion plan of 2016 New connections : Horns Rev C 400 MW offshore wind 2016 (I5 Stovstrup) Banedanmark 2016 (I1 Lykkegård/Andst) Apple data central 2017 (I2 Tjele) Facebook data central 2018 (I3 Fraugde) New data central (I4 Blåbjerg) COBRA cable link, Holland 700 MW 2019 (I8 Endrup) Upgrade Jutland-Germany 1000 MW 2019 (I9) Viking link 1400 MW, late 2022 (P6 Endrup) New link Jutland-Germany 1000 MW, late 2022 (P7 Endrup) Upgrade of grid north in Jutland (P8) 16
17 Zealand: Kriegers Flak 2018, upgrade of grid in north Energinet.dk grid expansion plan of 2016 New connections : Offshore wind farm Kriegers Flak 2018, 600 MW (I7) Kriegers Flak cable link 2018, Germany 400 MW (I10) New biomass power plant Amagerværket 2018 (P5) Banedanmark 2019 (P1 H.C. Ørsted, Ringsted) Upgrade of grid north in Zealand 2019 (P2) 17
18 German connections to Nordic: strong capacity expansion Year Cable links external Capacity (MW) 2017 Jutland-Germany Jutland-Germany Zealand-Germany (Kriegers Flak) Norway-Germany Jutland-Germany Total Nordic-Germany Jutland-Germany to full capacity 2500 MW by 2019, after often being at MW latest years Germany to introduce restrictions for power flow to Austria from October 2017 onwards: will limit power flow from north to south in Germany When high German wind power generation in north: exports will find the way to Nordic area, mostly at off-peak Strong capacity expansions to Germany until 2023 In total: we assume nearly zero net power flow Nordic area-german area on average. But windy periods will generate large net German power flow to the Nordic area 18
19 The Macron election victory -> strongly affecting 2026 power flow Northwestern Europe 2026 SRMC gas SRMC coal «The green zone»: No coal-fired, less nuclear UK: 15 TWh nuclear phase-out, wind+solar doubled France: 60 TWh nuclear phase-out, wind+solar more than doubled Belgium: 40 TWh nuclear phase-out, wind+solar more than doubled Consumption UK/FR/BE: Sideways In total: generation sources with low SRMC s are reduced Gas-fired generation on the margin: 80-85% of time 19
20 The Macron election victory -> strongly affecting 2026 power flow Power exports to UK: 11 TWh/y per cable link When all three links in operation: 33 TWh/y of power exports from Nordic area to UK By 2028: The Nordic area will import power from Russia (6 TWh/y), Germany (5 TWh/y) and Netherlands (2 TWh/y) 20
21 Long term price assumptions for neighbouring countries UK prices: SRMC gas with CO2-tax German, Dutch prices: SRMC coal, some SRMC gas on peak periods Russian prices: Low off-peak periods at SRMC CHP with low-priced gas 21
22 Nordic Power price scenarios : MKonline s three latest base scenario calculations Our base forecasts have been lifted stepwise lately Coal price expectations were lifted in Dec and June 2017 editions EUA price expectations were lifted in Dec and March 2017 UK price perspectives lifted in June 2017 edition 22
23 Simulated mid-term Danish area prices Simulated area Prices in nominal terms /MWh. 31 st of August Input: market prices of coal and EUAs Product Market System DK1 DK2 31. aug. MOCT-17 Eur 30,6 28,3 28,5 29,6 Q4-17 Eur 31,5 29,4 29,8 30,9 Q1-18 Eur 33,0 34,2 34,5 35,8 Q2-18 Eur 25,6 27,8 28,1 29,1 Q3-18 Eur 23,4 25,8 26,8 28,0 Q4-18 Eur 27,6 30,4 30,0 31,1 YR-18 Eur 27,1 29,6 29,9 31,1 YR-19 Eur 24,5 29,3 29,6 30,5 YR-20 Eur 24,2 29,3 29,4 30,3 YR-21 Eur 25,1 29,2 30,0 30,6 EPADs DK1 Oct-17: +3.5, Q4:+1.3, Q1: -0.7, Years EPADs DK2 Oct-17: +7, Q4:+4, Q1: +2, Years
24 Short term development: large changes the coming months Hydrological situation: close to normal level Latest week we observed high DK2/SE3/SE4/FI/Baltic prices: low wind, low nuclear production Seasonal lift of MW in consumption to come Nuclear start-up: 6000 MW in pipeline, extraordinary low now CHP/Wind power generation: increase 4000 MW under average seasonal conditions Oslofjord cables/hasle link back in operation early October: 1400 MW more capacity NO1-> SE3 SRMC of coal: to remain at high levels, support spot prices Our simulated prices vs. market prices as of 6th of September 2017 Products MKonline expectations Market prices 6th of Sept Deviation to market Q ,3 30,7-0,4 Q ,0 32,5 2,5 24
25 Simulated long-term Danish area prices: Base scenario Area Prices in the base scenario [real 2017 /MWh]. June 2017 LTP-edition Year System Jutland Zealand ,2 27,7 29, ,3 25,4 26, ,0 24,3 25, ,7 25,3 26, ,4 38,0 39, ,2 39,9 41, ,0 41,5 42, ,1 43,1 43, ,8 43,0 43, ,4 42,4 42, ,5 42,2 42, ,0 42,9 42, ,7 43,0 42, ,0 43,1 43, ,1 43,2 43, ,2 43,2 43, ,2 43,2 43, ,1 43,2 43, ,1 43,1 43,1 25
26 Simulated Nordic Area prices: Base scenario Low NO4, SE1, SE2 and Finland area prices. High NO1, NO2, NO5 and NO3 area prices Area Prices in the base scenario [2017 /MWh]. June 2017 LTP-edition Year System NO1 NO2 NO5 NO3 NO4 SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4 Finland Jutland Zealand ,2 27,4 27,6 27,4 27,9 23,1 28,1 28,1 28,7 29,0 32,6 27,7 29, ,3 25,8 25,7 25,7 26,2 25,5 25,9 25,9 26,4 26,4 33,2 25,4 26, ,0 24,7 24,6 24,7 25,0 24,1 24,4 24,4 25,0 25,0 27,4 24,3 25, ,7 25,4 25,4 25,4 25,4 23,5 24,6 24,6 26,1 26,1 27,0 25,3 26, ,4 39,4 39,3 39,3 39,3 37,9 38,4 38,4 38,9 39,0 38,8 38,0 39, ,2 40,1 40,1 40,0 40,0 38,0 39,1 39,1 39,8 39,8 39,7 39,9 41, ,0 41,9 41,9 41,9 41,8 39,7 40,4 40,4 41,2 41,2 41,0 41,5 42, ,1 43,0 43,0 43,0 42,9 40,6 41,1 41,1 42,0 42,0 41,8 43,1 43, ,8 42,9 42,9 42,8 42,7 40,5 40,3 40,4 41,1 41,1 40,3 43,0 43, ,4 42,4 42,4 42,4 42,3 40,0 39,7 39,7 40,6 40,6 39,7 42,4 42, ,5 42,5 42,5 42,4 42,4 39,9 39,5 39,5 40,6 40,7 39,5 42,2 42, ,0 44,1 44,2 44,0 43,9 40,9 40,6 40,6 41,7 41,7 41,0 42,9 42, ,7 44,8 44,8 44,7 44,6 41,5 40,7 40,7 41,9 41,9 41,1 43,0 42, ,0 45,1 45,1 45,0 44,9 41,7 40,9 40,9 42,1 42,1 41,5 43,1 43, ,1 45,2 45,2 45,1 45,0 41,9 41,1 41,1 42,2 42,3 41,7 43,2 43, ,2 45,3 45,3 45,2 45,1 42,0 41,1 41,1 42,2 42,3 41,6 43,2 43, ,2 45,3 45,3 45,2 45,1 42,0 41,0 41,0 42,2 42,2 41,4 43,2 43, ,1 45,3 45,3 45,2 45,1 42,0 40,9 40,9 42,1 42,1 41,3 43,2 43, ,1 45,2 45,2 45,1 45,0 41,9 40,8 40,9 42,0 42,1 41,1 43,1 43,1 26
27 Nordic year contracts now: Low-priced Our simulated prices vs. market prices for year-products as of 6th of September All figures in nominal /MWh Year MKonline Base expectations Market prices 6th of Sept Deviation to market Yr-17 29,2 29,6-0,4 Yr-18 30,3 27,7 2,6 Yr-19 30,0 25,1 4,9 Yr-20 30,1 24,9 5,2 Yr-21 30,1 25,8 4,3 Yr-22 32,2 26,5 5,7 Yr-22 43,3 26,5 16,8 Yr-23 45,9 29,3 16,6 Yr-24 47,8 29,9 17,9 Yr-25 48,3 30,4 17,9 Yr-26 48,5 30,9 17,6 Yr-27 49,4 31,2 18,2 Please note a major explanation for year 2022: MKonline Base expectations in black are prognoses as presented in our Forward Overview report 6th of September 2017, applying market prices for coal and EUAs as input. MKonline Base expectations in blue are simulated power prices as presented in our June 2017 LTP-report, applying MKonline expectations to coal and EUAs and converted to nominal values. More hedging among generators than among consumers, new entrants from new, renewable generation Low liquidity in the far end of the curve: One trade may change the price significantly Not fully included: early nuclear phaseout/new export capacity Wet/windy/mild weather over-represented? For long term perspective: Forward market do not include any lift in coal and EUAs, like we do 27
28 Thank you for your attention Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis
Det europeiske kraftmarkedet på lang sikt
Det europeiske kraftmarkedet på lang sikt Småkraftdagane, Rica Hell, 19. mars 2014 A presentation from Olav Johan Botnen Senior Analyst, Nordic Analysis ojb@mkonline.com +47 37 00 97 61 Nordic power balance
More informationSummary Report UK s Long Term Power Balance and Implications for Major Power Producers Gas Consumption
Updated 17th of June 015 Summary Report UK s Long Term Power Balance and Implications for Major Power Producers Gas Consumption Ambitious cuts in greenhouse gases and strong promotion of renewable energy
More informationNordic power markets. Timo Karttinen. Senior Vice President Fortum Corporation
Nordic power markets Timo Karttinen Senior Vice President Fortum Corporation Capital Markets Day Helsinki, 30 October 2008 Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite,
More informationMerit Order Effect of Wind Power Impact on EU 2020 Electricity Prices
Merit Order Effect of Wind Power Impact on EU 2020 Electricity Prices AEE Wind Energy Convention, Madrid June 15-16 Jesper Munksgaard Ph.D., Senior Consultant 2 Agenda Background Literature review Modeling
More informationLong-term Market Analysis Nordics and Europe Executive summary
Long-term Market Analysis Nordics and Europe 2018 2040 Executive summary 1 December 2018 Europe is set to develop a low carbon power system with significant contribution from renewable energy sources.
More informationØrsted transformation
Ørsted transformation Converting and operating flexible power plants Vice President, Regulatory Affairs Ulrik Stridbæk 15 June 2018 Ørsted today Headquartered in Denmark Listed in the Nasdaq OMX: ORSTED
More informationOutlook for Generation and Trade in the Nordic and German Power System
Outlook for Generation and Trade in the Nordic and German Power System Dissemination Event 11-06-2015 NH Hotel Berlin Friedrichstraße Anders Kofoed-Wiuff and János Hethey Agenda Introduction Methodology
More informationVattenfall s views on the electricity market 2005
Vattenfall s views on the electricity market 25 Stockholm, Lars G. 25-11-16 Josefsson, President and CEO, Vattenfall AB Effects of the Swedish market reform (1) New study: Regulatory Reform in the Swedish
More informationCapacity reserves until 2025: declining, but sufficient
1 Capacity reserves until 2025: declining, but sufficient Trends from ENTSO-E s Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast 2015 Once a year, ENTSO-E 1 publishes a Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF).
More informationPower market integration, focusing on the CHP switch to biomass and electric heating to replace fossil-fuelled heating
Power market integration, focusing on the CHP switch to biomass and electric heating to replace fossil-fuelled heating Capacity building for Renewable Energy Technologies and Policy in Ethiopia Henrik
More information(How) can the European power market be decarbonized to 2050, without CCS? Lasse Torgersen CenSES årskonferanse Oslo 7/
(How) can the European power market be decarbonized to 25, without CCS? Lasse Torgersen CenSES årskonferanse Oslo 7/12 217 25 low-carbon economy Cost-efficient pathway to reach the 8% target by 25 Reduction
More informationOur strategy in challenging markets
Our strategy in challenging markets Øystein Løseth President and CEO Solna/Stockholm, 3 December 2012 Today s focus Vattenfall at a glance Market trends & outlook Political and regulatory outlook Alignment
More informationWind energy and Climate policy Fixing the Emission Trading System
Wind energy and Climate policy Fixing the Emission Trading System Rémi Gruet Senior Advisor - Climate Change & Environment European Wind Energy Association 1st February 2012 EWEA Members Across entire
More informationPhasing out nuclear power in Europe Rolf Golombek, Finn Roar Aune and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier 39th IAEE International Conference Bergen, June 2016
Oslo Centre of Research on Environmentally friendly Energy Phasing out nuclear power in Europe Rolf Golombek, Finn Roar Aune and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier 39th IAEE International Conference Bergen, June
More informationVattenfall Capital Markets Day 2009
Vattenfall Capital Markets Day 2009 Presentation by: Lars G. Josefsson CEO Amsterdam, 23 September 2009 Contents Vattenfall overview Industry trends Strategic direction 2 Vattenfall overview 3 Vattenfall
More informationCompetitive energy landscape in Europe
President of Energy Sector, South West Europe, Siemens Competitive energy landscape in Europe Brussels, siemens.com/answers Agenda Europe s competitiveness depends on an affordable and reliable energy
More informationNew power bridges between Germany and Scandinavia
New power bridges between Germany and Scandinavia Interconnector projects in the 50Hertz area Danish meets German Energy Transition Copenhagen, 26/05/2016 Jonas Kraeusel Agenda 1. Renewables in the 50Hertz
More informationVattenfall Capital Markets Day 2008
Vattenfall Capital Markets Day 2008 Presentation by: Hans von Uthmann Senior Executive Vice President Head of Business Group Vattenfall Nordic Berlin, 8 September 2008 Contents Overview & Key data The
More informationChallenges of Power Price Forecasting
Challenges of Power Price Forecasting 9th Energy & Finance Conference, Essen 10 th October 2013 Thomas Pieper, RWE Supply & Trading PAGE 1 Major fundamental factors influencing power prices on the wholesale
More informationUK Future Energy Scenarios. Richard Smith Future Transmission Networks Manager
UK Future Energy Scenarios Richard Smith Future Transmission Networks Manager January 2012 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results
More informationEnergy balances 2011 Power balances 2011/2012
Energy balances 2011 Power balances 2011/2012 May 2008 1 CONTENTS Summary and Conclusions 3-4 Forecast 5-11 Energy balances 12-19 Power balances 20-24 Security of Supply 25-33 Appendices 34-42 1. Energy
More informationSAMPLE. Reference Code: GDAE6535IDB. Publication Date: May 2015
Hydropower in Austria, Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 Capacity, Generation, Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Investment Trends, Regulations and Company Profiles Reference Code: GDAE6535IDB Publication
More informationWIND POWER TARGETS FOR EUROPE: 75,000 MW by 2010
About EWEA EWEA is the voice of the wind industry actively promoting the utilisation of wind power in Europe and worldwide. EWEA members from over 4 countries include 2 companies, organisations, and research
More informationFocus on the Nordic and Baltic Sea
European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity Focus on the Nordic and Baltic Sea Looking at what is driving grid development in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region: integration of the
More informationStudy on Enhanced regional energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region
Study on Enhanced regional energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region Multi-client study Nordic Council of Minister Baltic Sea Parliamentary Committee Baltic Development Forum Fabrikant Mads Clausens
More informationPRICE FORECASTS FOR POWER AND CERTIFICATE MARKETS
PRICE FORECASTS FOR POWER AND CERTIFICATE MARKETS FEBRUARY 2015 EDITION THEMA offers long term price forecasts for the Nordic and German power markets as well as the market for electricity certificates
More informationSAMPLE. Reference Code: GDAE6529IDB. Publication Date: April 2015
Hydropower in Indonesia, Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 Capacity, Generation, Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Investment Trends, Regulations and Company Profiles Reference Code: GDAE6529IDB Publication
More informationChristian Skar Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
Christian Skar Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) Co-authors: Kjetil Midthun (SINTEF Technology and Society) Asgeir Tomasgard
More informationUpdate on Nordic renewable subsidy schemes
Update on Nordic renewable subsidy schemes Oslo 08.06.2017 Matti Ahtosalo / Axpo Finland Oy and Mats Larsson / Axpo Nordic AS Page 1 Axpo at is a the glance largest Swiss producer of renewable energies
More informationIS BALANCING FROM HYDROPOWER A FEASIBLE IDEA
IS BALANCING FROM HYDROPOWER A FEASIBLE IDEA RIGA 2017-12-07 Research Manager Michael M. Belsnes A FEW WORDS ABOUT SINTEF One of Europe s largest independent research organisations and not-for-profit 2000
More informationTransmission and Interconnectors
Transmission and Interconnectors Peter Børre Eriksen Head of Systems Analysis Energinet.dk 1 ENTSO-E: 41 TSOs from 34 countries Founded on 19 Dec 2008 and fully operational since July 2009 A trans-european
More informationThe Future of Electricity: A Market with Costs of Zero? Marginal
The Future of Electricity: A Market with Costs of Zero? Marginal Richard Green, IAEE European Conference, 217 1 Supply /MWh Marginal Cost Nuclear CCGT OCGT GW 2 Demand and Supply Prices reflect Marginal
More informationReference Code: GDAE6521IDB. Publication Date: March 2015
Hydro Power in France, Market Outlook to 2025, Update 2015 Capacity, Generation, Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Investment Trends, Regulations and Company Profiles Reference Code: GDAE6521IDB Publication
More informationImpact of the wind production profiles on electricity prices in 2030
Impact of the wind production profiles on electricity prices in 23 CEEM-Dauphine - workshop on renewables and electricity prices: modeling approaches 1/6/215 Outline Who we are and what we do Research
More informationOffshore wind after AGCS Expert Days 2017, Munich November 3, 2017 Bent Christensen, Senior Vice President
Offshore wind after 2020 AGCS Expert Days 2017, Munich November 3, 2017 Bent Christensen, Senior Vice President Introduction Our contribution to clean energy so far >2,370 offshore wind turbines installed
More informationImpacts of wind on the Nordic wholesale market. Therese Gjerde- Vice President Spot Bergen Energi AS
Impacts of wind on the Nordic wholesale market Therese Gjerde- Vice President Spot Bergen Energi AS 1 Agenda Bergen Energi in brief Facts renewables Potential impacts on prices and uncertanties Summary
More informationEnergy transition in Belgium Choices and costs
Energy transition in Belgium Choices and costs Press conference 30/01/2017 Energy system model TIMES Background TIMES is a Model Generator for techno-economic energy system models Developed by the Energy
More informationViking Link will need Volatile Spot Markets
1 Viking Link will need Volatile Spot Markets Last year I expressed doubt about the profitability of the Viking Link between Denmark and England [1]. In Energinet s business case document from 2015, all
More informationNote on technology costs for offshore wind farms and the background for updating CAPEX and OPEX in the technology catalogue datasheets
Note on technology costs for offshore wind farms and the background for updating CAPEX and OPEX in the technology catalogue datasheets The winning price in the tenders for the offshore wind farms in Denmark
More informationAccounting CO 2 emissions from electricity and district heat used in buildings
Accounting CO 2 emissions from electricity and district heat used in buildings Jarek Kurnitski, D.Sc. Docent, Research manager Helsinki University of Technology, HVAC-Technology Euroheat & Power 29 2.5.29
More informationThe Future of Electricity: A Market with Costs of Zero? Marginal
The Future of Electricity: A Market with Costs of Zero? Marginal Imperial College Business School Richard Green, IAEE European Conference, 217 1 Running your mouse over the bubble in the top left corner
More informationNote on technology costs for offshore wind farms and the background for updating CAPEX and OPEX in the technology catalogue datasheets
Note on technology costs for offshore wind farms and the background for updating CAPEX and OPEX in the technology catalogue datasheets The winning price in the tenders for the offshore wind farms in Denmark
More information2010 Winter Outlook & a future view
2010 Winter Outlook & a future view Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Presentation
More informationPhoto: Thinkstock. Wind in power 2010 European statistics. February The European Wind energy association
Photo: Thinkstock Wind in power 21 European statistics February 211 1 WIND IN POWER: 21 EUROPEAN STATISTICS Contents Executive summary 21 annual installations Wind map 21 Wind power capacity installations
More informationTransformation towards a sustainable European Energy System Which Roadmaps?
Transformation towards a sustainable European Energy System Which Roadmaps? Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Universität Stuttgart EUROPEAN ENERGY CONFERENCE 212 Maastricht,
More informationFeatures of intermittend electricity supply
Features of intermittend electricity supply F. Wagner, Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald 1 Topic: Transformation of energy system; fossil RE Now: PE(chemical) Mechanical energy (transport)
More informationEeekonomics: BEG/CEE UT Annual Meeting. Commentary: European Live Issues, Post recession Demand. European gas demand post Fukushima Outline
Gas Research Programme ENERGY STUDIES Natural G Eeekonomics: BEG/CEE UT Annual Meeting Houston, 7 December 2011 Commentary: European Live Issues, Post recession Demand Dr Anouk Honore Senior Research Fellow
More informationGlobal Wind Energy Market Report. Wind Energy Industry Grows at Steady Pace, Adds Over 8,000 MW in 2003
Global Wind Energy Market Report Wind Energy Industry Grows at Steady Pace, Adds Over 8,000 MW in 2003 World Growth Cumulative global wind energy generating capacity topped 39,000 megawatts (MW) and reached
More informationElectricity and heat statistics
Electricity and heat statistics Statistics Explained Data extracted in June 2018. Planned article update: June 2019. Gross electricity production by fuel, GWh, EU-28, 2000-2016Source: Eurostat (nrg105a)
More informationCables Strategic options for Sweden Commissioned by Svensk Energi THEMA Report
Cables Strategic options for Sweden Commissioned by Svensk Energi THEMA Report 2013-19 THEMA Report 2013-19 Cables- Strategic options for Sweden About the project: Project number: MCS-2013-4 Cables from
More informationConditions for accelerating the deployment of offshore wind power in the BSR - Seminar 27 April 2012, Wind Power in the Nordic and Baltic Region
Conditions for accelerating the deployment of offshore wind power in the BSR - Seminar 27 April 2012, Wind Power in the Nordic and Baltic Region BASREC - Wind Contents: 1. Objectives & Implementation Framework
More informationHow government subsidies influence the onshore wind energy market. Max ten Cate 27 September 2017
How government subsidies influence the onshore wind energy market Max ten Cate 27 September 2017 Our international energy practice supports our clients throughout the initiation and execution of large
More information- view from NIB as an international finance institution
BEMIP for Baltic Sea Region - view from NIB as an international finance institution Electricity Gas Yngve Söderlund, Senior Manager NIB, Energy Lending E-mail: yngve.soderlund@nib.int NIB Energy Lending
More informationOverview: National coal phase-out announcements in Europe
Overview: National coal phase-out announcements in Europe Status as of June 2018 Many national governments have their intention to phase out coal. A total of 40.38 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity,
More informationWIND ENERGY - THE FACTS PART VI SCENARIOS AND TARGETS
WIND ENERGY - THE FACTS PART VI SCENARIOS AND TARGETS Acknowledgements Part VI was compiled by Arthouros Zervos of the National Technical University of Athens, Greece (www. ntua.gr), and Christian Kjaer
More informationSUMMARY RUS PLAN 2017 (REINVESTMENT, EXPANSION, RESTORATION) (RUS17)
SUMMARY RUS PLAN 2017 (REINVESTMENT, EXPANSION, RESTORATION) (RUS17) Reinvestment, Expansion and Restoration Plan 2017 2/11 1. Summary Energinet's RUS (reinvestment, expansion, restoration) plan is an
More informationNiels I. Meyer Technical University of Denmark
OUT-PHASING OF FOSSIL FUELS BEFORE 2050 Danish Case Study: Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis (CEESA) Technical University of Denmark nim@byg.dtu.dk Graz, July 4, 2012/1 INTERNATIONAL BACKGROUND
More informationDistrict Heating as a Source of Flexibility in the Nordic Electricity Market
District Heating as a Source of Flexibility in the Nordic Electricity Market SAEE-Conference, Luleå August 2016 Ole Jess Olsen, Energy Economics and Regulation, DTU Management Engineering, DK Klaus Skytte,
More informationREPORT. Energinet's analysis assumptions. Doc. no. 16/ Offentlig/Public
REPORT Energinet's analysis assumptions Energinet's analysis assumptions 2/60 CONTENTS 1. Introduction... 4 1.1 Delimitation... 4 1.2 Important changes in relation to last year's analysis assumptions...
More informationRegional Investment Plan 2017 Regional Group Baltic Sea
Regional Investment Plan 2017 Draft 14 January 2018 1 Contents Contents... 2 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 4 1.1 Regional investment plans as foundation for the TYNDP 2018...4 1.2 Key messages of the region...5
More informationPhoto: Karpov. Wind in power 2009 European statistics. February 2010 THE EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION
Photo: Karpov Wind in power 29 European statistics February 21 1 WIND IN POWER: 29 EUROPEAN STATISTICS Contents Executive summary 29 annual installations Wind map 29 Wind installations 29 Power capacity
More informationThe Outlook for Retail Electricity Prices
The Outlook for Retail Electricity Prices Presentation to Power Australia Conference 2011 Edwin O Young 27 September 2011 Australia s future retail electricity price environment Australian retail electricity
More informationMedium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013
Renewable Energy Market Report 213 Michael Waldron Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 213 OECD/IEA 213 MTRMR methodology and scope Analysis of drivers and challenges for RE
More informationOFFSHORE WIND ENERGY RENEWABLE BULK POWER BUT NO TRANSMISSION? 5 TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED INFRASTRUCTURE RESEARCH
OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY RENEWABLE BULK POWER BUT NO TRANSMISSION? 5 TH CONFERENCE ON APPLIED INFRASTRUCTURE RESEARCH SUSTAINABLE EUROPEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF COMPETITION, ENVIRONMENTAL
More informationContribution of Renewables to Energy Security Cédric PHILIBERT Renewable Energy Division
Contribution of Renewables to Energy Security Cédric PHILIBERT Renewable Energy Division EUFORES Parliamentary Dinner Debate, Brussels, 9 September, 2014 What Energy Security is about IEA defines energy
More informationPATHS TOWARDS A FOSSIL-FREE ENERGY SUPPLY. An analysis performed by Ea Energy Analyses for DONG Energy and Vestas Wind Systems
PATHS TOWARDS A FOSSIL-FREE ENERGY SUPPLY DANISH ENERGY SUPPLY IN AN INTERNATI ONAL CONTEXT An analysis performed by Ea Energy Analyses for DONG Energy and Vestas Wind Systems Summary Starting point and
More informationEuropean Transmission System Operators. Users Group Belgian Grid. June 10th 2010
European Transmission System Operators Users Group Belgian Grid June 10th 2010 EWIS A Common Study of all Synchronous Areas within Europe Common initiative of ETSO/UCTE ENTSO-E Time horizon 2008 2015 Outlook
More informationTable of contents. 1 Introduction System impacts of VRE deployment Technical flexibility assessment of case study regions...
Table of contents Foreword................................................................................. 3 Acknowledgements...5 Executive summary...13 1 Introduction...21 Background...21 Context...21
More informationUnlocking Investment in a changing Power Sector. Anne Malorie Géron Vice-President European Affairs Third EFORIS event, Stockholm, 23 November 2017
Unlocking Investment in a changing Power Sector Anne Malorie Géron Vice-President European Affairs Third EFORIS event, Stockholm, 23 November 2017 Solar more competitive in sunbelt, wind in North in retail,
More informationMedium and long-term perspectives for PV. Dr. Paolo Frankl Division Head Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
Medium and long-term perspectives for PV Dr. Paolo Frankl Division Head Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Solar Power Summit, Brussels, 7-8 March 2017 Annual additions (GW) Cumulative
More informationTHE IMPACT OF EU ETS IN THE NORDIC ELECTRICITY MARKET
THE IMPACT OF EU ETS IN THE NORDIC ELECTRICITY MARKET 2005-2009 80 /MWh 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Marginal cost of Coal Condensing power incl. CO2 Marginal cost of Coal Condensing
More informationWinter Outlook Report 2012/2013 and Summer Review 2012
An Overview of System Adequacy: Winter Outlook Report 2012/2013 and Summer Review 2012 Friday, 30 th November 2012 ENTSO-E Avenue de Cortenbergh, 100 1000 Brussels Belgium Tel +32 2 741 09 50 Fax. +32
More informationClimate Change and the Future Nordic Energy System
Conference on Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources Reykjavik, Iceland, 7 June 2006 Climate Change and the Future Nordic Energy System with focus on the system Linköping Sweden Mikael Togeby
More informationEnergy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region
Energy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction in 2030 Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff Ea Energy Analyses Ea Energianalyse Contents of
More informationThe Danish Experience and View on Energy System Development
1 The Danish Experience and View on Energy System Development Energy Policy in Europe: objectives, achievements, and challenges Juan M. Morales, Pierre Pinson and Henrik Madsen Boston, Massachusetts, US
More informationHow do we cover the shortfall? Carbon Market update: IETA Conference Paris, September 27 th Stefan Judisch Managing Director RWE Trading GmbH
How do we cover the shortfall? Carbon Market update: IETA Conference Paris, September 27 th 2005 Stefan Judisch Managing Director RWE Trading GmbH The result to market news Due to the recent media coverage
More informationHighlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region,
Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 3 to 23. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide, and oil remains the dominant energy source. In
More informationMedium- Term Renewable Energy Market Report Heymi Bahar Project Manager Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency
Medium- Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2016 Heymi Bahar Project Manager Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency Energy and Mines World Congress, Toronto, 21-22 November 2016 Context
More informationData, tables, statistics and maps ENERGY IN DENMARK
Data, tables, statistics and maps ENERGY IN DENMARK 215 1 1 GENERAL INFORMATION ON DENMARK Energy in Denmark, 215 Contents General information on Denmark 3 Energy production 4 Imports and exports of energy
More informationFRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE
FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FOR SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS ISE Power generation in Germany assessment of 2017 Prof. Dr. Bruno Burger Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Freiburg, Germany, 02.01.2018 www.ise.fraunhofer.de
More informationNORDIC AND BALTIC HVDC UTILI- SATION AND UNAVAILABILITY STATISTICS 2015
NORDIC AND BALTIC HVDC UTILI- SATION AND UNAVAILABILITY STATISTICS 2015 16.01.2017 REGIONAL GROUP NORDIC Table of Contents 1 SUMMARY... 3 2 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND... 4 3 SCOPE... 5 CONTACT PERSONS...
More informationData, tables, statistics and maps ENERGY IN DENMARK
Data, tables, statistics and maps ENERGY IN DENMARK 216 Energy in Denmark, 216 Contents General information on Denmark 3 Energy production 4 Imports and exports of energy 8 Electricity and heat 9 Danish
More informationContext Three numbers and three core global energy challenges: 6.5 million premature deaths each year can be attributed to air pollution 2.7 degrees i
Renewables 217 Heymi Bahar IEEJ, Tokyo 31 October 217 Context Three numbers and three core global energy challenges: 6.5 million premature deaths each year can be attributed to air pollution 2.7 degrees
More informationTHE BALTICS THE FIRST REGION IN THE EU TO BECOME 100% RES
THE BALTICS THE FIRST REGION IN THE EU TO BECOME 100% RES Christian Breyer, Michael Child and Dmitrii Bogdanov Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), Finland 17 th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on
More informationVattenfall Capital Markets Day
Vattenfall Capital Markets Day Emissions Trading Presentation by Erik Saether, Head of Vattenfall Trading Services 27 September, 2005 Content 2 Vattenfall Trading Services: Roles and Responsibilities The
More informationEmissions Trading System (ETS): The UK needs to deliver its share of the total EU ETS emissions reduction of 21% by 2020, compared to 2005;
Emissions Trading System (ETS): The UK needs to deliver its share of the total EU ETS emissions reduction of 21% by 2020, compared to 2005; Non-ETS emissions: The Effort Sharing Decision sets a target
More informationOffshore Wind Power Plants The Road to Subsidy-free Offshore Wind
Offshore Wind Power Plants The Road to Subsidy-free Offshore Wind CEM8: Multilateral Solar and Wind Working Group side event Matthias Bausenwein General Manager Asia-Pacific June 2017 DONG Energy at a
More informationINTEGRATION OF RENEWABLES
INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLES System operation and grid codes- the case of Denmark System Integration of Renewables Japan, June 21 2018 Peter Børre Eriksen, Chief Engineer, Energinet 1 ENERGINET THE DANISH
More informationBalancing New Renewables in Europe - Norwegian Contributions and Research Challenges
Balancing New Renewables in Europe - Norwegian Contributions and Research Challenges Birger Mo SINTEF Energy Research 1 Content Overview of balancing options and in particular Norwegian hydro power Research
More informationWind energy in Europe markets
Wind energy in Europe markets Turkish Wind Energy Congress (TWEC 2012), 7 November 2012, Istanbul Christian Kjaer CEO European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) More than 600 members from almost 60 countries
More informationEmerging Strategy in the UK Power Sector The Future of Energy Storage Technologies and Policy May, Nick Winser Executive Director UK
Emerging Strategy in the UK Power Sector The Future of Energy Storage Technologies and Policy 25-26 May, 2011 Nick Winser Executive Director UK Where does our energy come from today? Elec ctricity (kg
More informationBenefits of the IEA Wind Co-operation
Benefits of the IEA Wind Co-operation World wind energy development* Market growth has averaged 21% over the past 10 years. In 2013, the market grew 12.5% vs. nearly 19% growth in 2012. 35 GW of new capacity
More informationEuropean Power Generation Strategy Summit
European Power Generation Strategy Summit The Nordic Power Market - is it different from other power markets? Prague 4 December 2012 Lars Jacobsson, Market Framework Coordination, BD Asset Optimisation
More informationGeneration Adequacy. Generation Adequacy. market measures to secure it and methodology for assessment
market measures to secure it and methodology for assessment Introduction Power markets are at a crossroad. The structure of power generation capacity is changing towards more intermittent renewable energy,
More informationIncrease in renewables and the electricity system
Increase in renewables and the electricity system Selected findings from ongoing research in the NEPP project, the Pathways program and Fjärrsyn Thomas Unger Profu (www.profu.se) European electricity generation
More informationAbstract Offshore wind farms are gradually being planned and built farther from the shore. The increased integration
1 Analysis of grid alternatives for North Sea offshore wind farms using a flow-based market model Daniel Huertas-Hernando, Harald G. Svendsen, Leif Warland, Thomas Trötscher and Magnus Korpås Abstract
More informationSummary The world's capacity of renewable energies including hydropower is expected to increase from 2,200 GW at the end of 2017 to over 2,600 GW at t
429th Forum on Research Works 26 July 2018 Outlook on Global Renewable Energy Market The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Yasushi Ninomiya, Senior Researcher New and Renewable Energy Group Electric
More informationEnergiewende in Germany - issues and problems -
Energiewende in Germany - issues and problems - Copernikus Symp., Szczecin, 12.5.2014 1 F. Wagner, Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald Introduction 2 Two terms, not to be confused energy (TWh)
More informationRenewables in Electricity Markets
31761 - Renewables in Electricity Markets Exercise session 1: Day-ahead electricity markets [SOLUTION] The aim of this exercise session is to appraise and better understand the basic structure of electricity
More informationIEA WORK ON FUTURE ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS
IEA WORK ON FUTURE ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS Power grids, demand response and the low carbon transition Dr. Luis Munuera Smart Grids Technology Lead IEA Symposium on Demand Flexibility and RES Integration SMART
More information