Sustainability Criteria for Water Resource Systems

Transcription

1 Sustainability Criteria for Water Resource Systems David Watkins Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering October 15, 2004 Acknowledgments Task Committee on Sustainability Criteria, Water Resources Planning and Management Division, ASCE Working Group of UNESCO/IHP Jennifer McConville, Jim Mihelcic, Alex Mayer, Brian Barkdoll, Michigan Tech 2 1

2 What is Sustainability? Any different than long-term planning? Different perspectives/stakeholders Multiple objectives Spatial scale? Expected outcomes vs. risk/uncertainty Inter-generational vs. intra-generational equity 3 A Little History Farmers, fisherman, foresters, watershed managers have long known principles of sustained yields : Long-term planning with limited though renewable resources Concept of sustained development is broader in concept: Economy, environment, social systems evolve in harmony and improve over time 4 2

3 A Little History Meadows et al.: Limits to Growth (1974) Systems analysis study done at MIT, commissioned by Club of Rome Conclusions were doomsday-ish: A COMPUTER LOOKS AHEAD AND SHUDDERS STUDY SEES DISASTER BY YEAR 2100 SCIENTISTS WARN OF GLOBAL CATASTROPHE 5 A Little History Brundtland Commission Report: Our Common Future (1987) Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable to to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs 6 3

4 Sustainable Development Our Common Future (1987) Must not damage or destroy basic life support system: air, water, soil and biological systems Must be economically sustainable to provide continuous flow of goods and services Requires sustainable social systems at international, national, local, and family levels 7 So What s the Problem? Climate change and climate variability Stratospheric ozone depletion Forest, wetland, and habitat destruction Loss of biodiversity Encroaching desertification Contamination of ground and surface water resources Non-renewable resource use Regional water and food scarcity Population growth and urbanization Transboundary water resource conflicts Lack of sanitation and protected water supplies at local levels 8 4

5 1.2 billion people lack adequate drinking water (WHO,( 2002) billion people lack access to sanitation equipment (WHO( WHO, 2002). 10 5

6 Groundwater Depletion By the year 2025, 3.5 billion people are estimated to face water shortages due to exhaustion of groundwater resources (World Summit on Sustainable Development, 2002). 11 Countries Experiencing Water Scarcity Based on availability of less than 1,000 m 3 of renewable water per person year (Population Action International, 2002). Scarce in 1955 Added in 1990 Added by 2025 based on all possible growth Added by 2025 based on medium to high growth Malta, Djibouti Barbados Singapore Bahrain Kuwait Jordan Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Yemen Israel, Tunisia Cape Verde Kenya, Burundi Algeria Rwanda Malawi Somalia Libya Oman Morocco Egypt Comoros South Africa Syria Iran Ethiopia Haiti Cyprus Zimbabwe Tanzania Peru 12 6

7 Challenges for Regional Planning Limits of traditional benefit-cost analysis Difficult for governments to modify economies Time and space scale issues It s very difficult to forecast, especially the future. 13 Opportunities Information technology Better understanding of natural systems and human impacts Greater opportunities for resource transfers and trade offs at larger spatial scales 14 7

8 Sustainable Water Resource Systems are those designed and managed to fully contribute to the objectives of society, now and in the future, while maintaining their ecological, environmental, and hydrological integrity. Importance of both demand and supply management 15 Sustainability Criteria Income distribution Raw materials and energy consumption Use of natural resources (water) Waste generation and disposal Accretion of land or coast Soil fertility Public health, safety (risks) 16 8

9 Sustainability Guidelines Design, management and operation of physical infrastructure Environment and ecosystems Economics and finance Institutions and society Health and human welfare Planning and technology 17 Design, management and operation of physical infrastructure Design & manage systems to be effective, efficient and robust balancing changes in demands and supplies over time and space. Ensure that systems can adjust to changing land use. Ensure that designers and managers are knowledgeable of the needs of those served. Conserve renewable resources (sustained yield) and effectively use non-renewable resources. 18 9

10 Environment and ecosystems Consider water quality along with quantity. Ensure that there are no negative long-term irreversible or cumulative impacts on ecosystems. Protect and enhance the aesthetic environment. Monitor the environment and adjust operations accordingly. 19 Economics and finance Consider all direct and indirect environmental costs over the full life of the project. Recover all costs throughout the system s life-cycle in an equitable and efficient way. Ensure that sufficient finances are available to continuously operate and monitor systems

11 Institutions and society Minimize potential for conflicts and establish effective procedures to manage conflicts. Implement fully democratic and participatory planning and decision-making processes. Ensure that responsible institutions have the capacity to plan, monitor, and adapt to changing situations. 21 Human health and welfare Guarantee a minimum water supply to all humans to maintain health. Minimize all adverse social impacts caused by dislocation and stress during system failure. Preserve and protect society s cultural heritage

12 Planning and technology Recognize that planning is multi-disciplinary by nature, and includes all relevant options, including non-structural options. Collect and make available to all interested parties all data on water resource availability, use and quality. Maintain options for future uses of water resources. 23 Regional Case Studies Aral Sea Ogallala Aquifer Groundwater mining in Libya Restoration of Rhine, Danube Rivers North and Baltic Sea water pollution Damming the Mekong High Aswan Dam 24 12

13 Proposed Metrics for Local Scales 1. Relative water demand 2. Percentage of income spent on water and sanitation 3. Incidence of waterborne disease 4. Measures of robustness / adaptability Relative Water Demand Defined as the ratio of water withdrawal or consumption to total water availability (Vörösmarty et al., 2000). Addresses social and environmental concerns, possibly economic. Problem: Spatial and temporal variability is critical, but may be difficult to estimate. Under-estimation estimation of groundwater potential to supplement irrigation and drinking water supplies (UNEP Global Environmental Outlook, 2000)

14 2. %Income Spent on Water & Sanitation Direct measure of economic welfare. Indirect measure of social and environmental costs. Problem: Under-estimation estimation of willingness-to-pay may result in Inadequate systems with limited public taps and household connections. Vendors able to generate high monopoly rents (Lovei and Whittington, 1993). Inequitable income distribution. High environmental costs Incidence of Waterborne Disease Direct measure of human health impacts. Measure of economic development. Strongly linked to water and sanitation services Linked to poverty (lost wages) Problems: Accurate local data difficult to obtain. Studies have found conflicting results regarding links between health and water quality

15 4. Measures of Robustness/Adaptability Measures of a system s ability to cope with variability and change. Need to consider both historical variability and expected future conditions Measures of Robustness/Adaptability Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability (Hashimoto et al., 1982) Efficiency, Survivability, Sustainability (Pezzey, 1992) Reversibility, Adaptability 30 15

16 Measuring Sustainability (Hashimoto et al., 1982) 31 Efficiency, Survivability, Sustainability (Pezzey, 1992) 32 16

17 Concluding Questions How much and what types of activities can a region handle without undesirable impacts? What are the expected effects of current and planned activities? What attributes of society and the natural work should be preserved? What incentives and policies can be developed to achieve the desired goals? How can stakeholders evaluate sustainability metrics, uncertainties, and trade offs? 33 References American Society of Civil Engineers and United Nations Scientific, c, Educational and Cultural Organization (1998). Sustainability Criteria for Water Resource Systems, ASCE, Reston, Va. Farrell, A. and M. Hart (1998). What does sustainability really mean? The search for useful indicators, Environment,, 40(9), 4-9, Hashimoto, T., Stedinger, J. R., and Loucks, D. P. (1982). Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation, Water Resour. Res., 18(1), Lovei, L., and D. Whittington (1993). Rent-extracting extracting behavior by multiple agents in the provision of municipal water supply: A study of Jakarta, Indonesia, Water Resour. Res., 29(7), Mihelcic, J. R., J. C. Crittenden, M. J. Small, D. R. Shonnard, D. R. Hokanson, Q. Zhang, H. Chen, S. A. Sorby, V. U. James, J. W. Sutherland, and J. L. Schnoor (2003). Sustainability science and engineering: The emergence of a new metadiscipline, Environmental Science and Technology,, 37(23), Pezzey, J. (1992). Sustainable Development Concepts: An Economic Analysis, World Bank Environment Paper No. 2, World Bank, Washington, DC. Vörösmarty, C.J., P. Green, J. Salisbury, and R.B. Lammers (2000). Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth, Science,, 289, World Health Organization (2001). Report of the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health,, Geneva, Switzerland