Investors perspective on Joint Implementation

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1 Investors perspective on Joint Implementation Frede Cappelen, Statoil OECD, IETA, IEA workshop National Systems on Flexible Mechanisms Szentendre 13 May 2002 GHG emissions history and forecast GHG emissions, prognosis 2001 Total for Statoil operated facilities Million ton CO2-equivalents 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0, Production Development No decision 1

2 Potential growth of GHG emissions Statoil s equity Norway Greenhouse (offshore, gas onshore), emission, other Statoils Annexequity 1 countries and Non-annex 1 countries Forecast 2001 (incl. Prospects with no decision taken) million tonnes CO2- equivalents 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0, Year NCS With Kyoto commitment Norway onshore Without Kyoto commitment CO 2 abatement cost offshore Norway, covering more than 85% of Statoil s operation NOK / tonne CO 2 -tax 35 USD per tonne % CO2 Reduction Technological uncertainty 2

3 CO2 marginal abatement cost comparing offshore oil and gas with onshore activities - Norway CO 2 - Sammenligning av tiltakskostnader offshore i forhold til landet totalt Norge Norwaytotalt total Offshore NOK/tonn CO2 equivalent tonnes CO2 equivalents Kilde: MILJØSOK Offshore industry pays CO2 tax currently appr. USD 35 per ton How much GHG reduction do you get for USD 10 mill? Norwegian continental shelf Abatement cost USD 35+/tonne CO2 250 PCF JI/CDM project 200 Abatement cost USD 4 USD/tonne CO2 Real reductions in environmentally credible projects + additional benefits supporting sustainable development Economic Social Environmental NCS PCF 1000 ton CO2 3

4 Future elements of Statoil s GHG accounts Emissions Statoil s installations Norway EU Other A1 NA1 Reserves JI Credits Planned projects Validated projects Verified emission reduction Credits Allowances Allocated Bought CDM Credits Planned projects Validated projects Verified emission reduction Credits Emission reduction Transference Obligations PCF/CDM project cycle Manufacturing CDM/JI Emission reductions Project completion Preparation and review of the Project Project Idea Note Project Concept Note Project Concept Document (or equivalent) 3 months Periodic verification & certification Verification report Supervision report 1-3 years Up to 21 years 3 months 2 months 2 months Baseline Study and Monitoring and Verification Plan (MVP) Project Design Document Baseline study and ER projections Monitoring and Verification Plan Validation process Validation protocol and report (OE) Construction and start up Initial verification report Negotiation of Project Agreements Project Appraisal and related documentation Term sheet Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement 4

5 Quality and price relations $8t/Co2 $7t/Co2 $6t/Co2 $5t/Co2 $4t/Co2 $3t/Co2 $2t/Co2 $1t/Co2 Options Carbon prices: past transactions Third-Party verified Government approved permits Verified and Kyoto compatible $25/tC $20/tC $15/tC $10/tC $5/tC $0t/Co2 $0/tC Source: Natsource Risk connected to Joint Implementation Implementation and compliance of the Kyoto Protocol No ratification of the Kyoto Protocol New legal platform necessary for international collaboration. The Kyoto Protocol rules may serve as model for European solution? A1-countries are not eligible to use the Kyoto Mechanisms Not able to establish AAUs Out of compliance with emission targets 5

6 Risk connected to Joint Implementation Domestic policy risk Lack of regulatory framework, decision making and enforcement capability National limitation or conditions to use the mechanisms for compliance purposes Accession to EU influencing the baseline for JI projects? The White paper on Norwegian climate policy - implications for Statoil (1) After 2008: Broad ET system linked to international trading and the Kyoto mechanisms. After 2005: No ET for offshore and products still CO2 tax: Stimulation to early participation in CDM or to mature JI project connected to paritcipation in early emission trading Small market for ET with limited liquidity and ability to produce significant cost-effective gains. 6

7 The White paper on Norwegian climate policy - implications for Statoil (2) The Norwegian marginal abatement cost far beyond the cost in the EU-countries. To stay competitive the Norwegian industry need the same access to allowance marked and on the same conditions as our competitors in Europe. The White Paper lack assurance that the competitiveness, sector by sector of the industry, will determine the future regulatory framework foretinnorway. Will we ever reach a global collaboration including the NA1-countries? Risk connected to Joint Implementation Price risk Change in expected value of credits or allowances Additional cost implied by national government to use AAUs, EURs, CERs or RMUs for domestic compliance purposes Project risks Validation and registration of JI/CDM-project Verification, certification issuing of CERs and EURs Baseline projects are producing according to expectations Environmental management of the basis projects 7

8 Emission trading and credits from emission reductions Now: Explore CDM and JI options linked to Statoil s business activities in countries under development and EIT. Investment in the Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) Future: Invest in projects Purchase agreements with project developers/ sponsors. Financing of underlying project to achieve credits. Buy Allowances and Emission Reduction Credits in the secondary market Achieve allowances from national ET systems (EU) Pre-Kyoto 8

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