2017 Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference
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1 2017 Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference Specialty Chemicals Chemical Committee Meeting May 19, 2017 IHS Markit Chemical Masahiro Yoneyama
2 COMMODITY SPECIALTY VERSUS Not much qualitative differences. Price is the determining factor in purchasing. Price tends to be determined by supplydemand balance. Qualitative differentiation across a market. Performance is the determining factor in purchasing. Price tends to be determined by Competition and Performance Chemicals Enter New Frontiers: Industry Innovates and Adjusts to Uncertainty in Energy and Economy 2
3 Commodity, Fine and Specialty Chemicals Product Type Structure Commodity Chemical Specification Product Simple Molecular Fine Chemical Specification Product Complex Single Molecular Specialty Chemical Performance/ Functional Product Single Mol./ Formulation Volume Large Small Small Production Continuous Batch Batch Price Low High High R&D Focus Process Development Synthesis Technology Performance/ Function R&D Expenses Low Medium High Technical Service Low Medium High
4 Automotive Construction Cosmetic Electronics Food Imaging Oil Mining Packaging Plastics Rubber Paper Textile Water Mgt Specialty Chemical End Use Market Specialty Chemical Adhesives/Sealants Antioxidants Biocides Catalysts Corrosion Inhibitors Flame Retardants Flavors and Fragrances Specialty Coatings Specialty Lube Specialty Pigments Specialty Polymers Specialty Surfactants Synthetic Dyes Water-Soluble Polymers
5 Global Specialty Chemical Market 5
6 Position of Specialty Chemical Market Specialty Chemical accounts for 13% of total Chemical Market Specialty Chemicals 13% Fine Chemicals 3% Source: IHS Commodity Chemicals 84% Total: US$ 4.3 Trillion 6
7 Specialty Chemical Market by Region World consumption of specialty chemicals 2015 Central/Eastern Europe 5% Middle East/Africa 5% Japan 7% Central/South America 4% North America 25% Other Asia 14% Source: IHS Markit Specialty Chemical Update Western Europe 17% China 23% Total: US$ 554 billion 2017 IHS Markit 7
8 Specialty Chemical Market by Type Global Market for Specialty Chemicals 2015 Total: US$ 554 billion Other 39% Construction Chemicals 8% Cleaners, Industrial and Institutional 8% Specialty Polymers 8% Electronic Chemicals 7% Food Additives 4% Source: IHS Chemical Water Soluble Polymers 5% Catalysts 5% Surfactants 6% Flavors and Fragrances 5% Specialty Coatings 5% 8
9 % per year Specialty Chemical Market growth by Region China and Other Asia drive the growth (% per year) North America C & S America W. Europe C & E Europe ME & Africa Japan China Other Asia World average Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit 9
10 US$ per Capita Specialty chemical consumption per capita Room for large growth in China and Other Asia N. C & S America America W. Europe C & E Europe ME & Africa Japan China Other Asia World Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit 10
11 China 11
12 Chinese Society Chinese Specialty Chemical Market China in Transition Period 12
13 Chinese Society Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference Sapporo, Japan
14 China - Transition period China is now in transition period Society Slow down of economic growth More growth in personal goods/services than industrial production Chemical industry Over-capacity in commodity chemicals Heavily reliance on imported specialty chemicals Environment Reduction of air pollution - PM2.5 Reduction of green house gas 14
15 Chinese GDP growth is slowing down Annual GDP Growth, % Source: IHS Markit 2017 IHS Markit 15
16 Major manufacturing industries growth Some industries have high growth rate (%) Source: IHS Markit IHS Markit 16
17 Contribution to real GDP growth rate (%) Slowdown Chinese economic in growth construction by sector, non-cumulative and industry sector and growth in service sector Source: IHS Markit Services Industry and construction Agriculture 2017 IHS Markit 17
18 Challenge of Chinese Chemical Industry Good growth of Specialty Chemicals in China Higher growth for environmental protection personal goods & services Change from price-sensitive to quality-sensitive Less chance for matured industries? New Regulation New Technology 18
19 Chinese Specialty Chemical Market Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference Sapporo, Japan
20 Chinese Specialty Chemical Market 2015 Specialty Chemicals for industrial use have large consumption Total: US$ 129 billion Construction Chemicals 16% Other 35% Specialty Polymers 9% Source: IHS Chemical Textile Chemicals 4% Flavors and Fragrances 4% Surfactants 4% Catalysts 5% Plastics Additives 5% Specialty Coatings 7% Feed Additives 5% Electronic Chemicals 6% Source: IHS Markit Specialty Chemicals Update Program 2017 IHS Markit 20
21 Market size ($billion) Wide-range of Growth Rate Average = 6.5% Construction Specialty polymer Specialty coating Plastic additive Electronic Flavor Textile &Fragrance Cleaner Paper Cosmetic Nutraceutical Synlube Water management Source: IHS Markit Specialty Chemicals Update Program Annual growth rate (%) 2017 IHS Markit 21
22 Specialty chemical producers in China Chinese chemical companies (% on sales basis) Foreign or JV 8% Stateowned 16% Local Private 76% 76% of sales comes from local producers in China Local Private Producers are; Smaller Financially weak Limited product portfolio Weak in R&D Relatively low-end specialty chemicals 22
23 Global specialty chemical producers Most of global specialty chemical producers have operations in Chinese Market Most of them have their manufacturing plants and/or trade partner of specialty chemicals They dominate most of high-profit market 23
24 Strategic Implication Specialty chemical market will continue to grow in China. Domestic chemical producers are trying to move from commodity to specialty. Opportunities exists in specialty chemicals with Development of technology Change of mindset 24
25 And a different mindset! Commodity Specialty Different business models from commodity business. Performance oriented business Large R&D/technical support expenses Longer time required for market development Different performance metrics Not volume-oriented, but profit oriented smaller sales Differentiation not by production cost, but by performance 25
26 Japan 26
27 Japanese Society Japanese Specialty Chemical Market Case Study: Shift from Commodity to Specialty 27
28 Japanese Society Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference Sapporo, Japan
29 Japanese Society Low birth rate and Aging society Low birth rate Lower spending Fewer productive-age population Aging Society High cost society Shift of manufacturing to other Asian countries Strong industries Automobile, IT and Electronics, Machinery, etc 29
30 Environment Surrounding Chemical Industry Internal Factor: Decrease of consumption of petrochemicals Shift of end-user industries to other countries Decreasing consumer spending Chemical Industry in Japan External Factor: Increase of competition in petrochemical market Shale Gas China Coal Expansion in Middle East
31 Million Tons Japanese Ethylene Equivalent Supply - Demand Ethylene production and consumption decreased by almost 1 million tons Production Import Export Consumption
32 Reduction of Japanese Ethylene Capacity Ethylene Equivalent Demand: 5.0 million tons Ethylene Capacity in 2013: 7.2 million tons in 2016: 6.0 million tons Shutdown of Ethylene Cracker (KT) Company Location Design Capacity (KT) Year Mitsubishi Chemical Kashima Sumitomo Chemical Chiba Asahi Kasei Chemicals Mizushima Total 1,166 32
33 Japanese Specialty Chemical Market Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference Sapporo, Japan
34 Japanese Specialty Chemical Market In Japan, Specialty Chemicals for Industrial uses have a large share. Total: US$ 41billion Flavors and fragrances 4% Adhesives &sealants 5% Others 31% Water soluble polymers 5% Specialty coatings 5% Source: IHS Markit Specialty Chemical Update Program Construction chemicals 5% Specialty polymers 13% Electronic chemicals 12% Food additives 7% Surfactants 7% Printing inks 6%
35 US$ billion Top 10 Specialty Chemicals in Japan Specialty Polymers Electronics Chemicals 5 4 Printing Ink 3 2 Surfactants Flavors and Fragrances Food Additives Specialty Coating I & I Cleaners Construction Chemicals 1 Water-Soluble 0 Polymers Growth Rate (% per year)
36 Summary: Specialty Chemicals in Japan Current Market Specialty chemicals for industrial uses have large market share. (Specialty polymers and Electronics chemicals) Construction Chemicals show relatively high growth because of earthquake disaster reconstruction and Tokyo Olympic Game in 2020 Future Growth Japan economy is matured and demand growth of Specialty Chemical is in line with GDP Consumption of Printing ink will decrease due to degitalization Consumption of Electronics chemicals will decrease due to shift of electronics industry to other Asian countries
37 Other Asia 37
38 Other Asian Specialty Chemical Market Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference Sapporo, Japan
39 Other Asian Specialty Chemical Market In Other Asia, Electronics Chemicals have large market Total: US$ 80 billion Others 29% Electronic chemicals 25% Food additives 3% Printing inks 4% Flavors and fragrances 4% Construction chemicals 5% Source: IHS Markit Specialty Chemical Update Program Catalysts 6% Surfactants 6% Plastics additives 5% Specialty polymers 7% Specialty coatings 6%
40 US$ billion Top 10 Specialty Chemicals in Other Asia Electronics Chemicals Plastics Additives Specialty Coating Food Additives Catalyst Printing Ink Growth Rate (% per year) Construction Chemicals Specialty Polymers Surfactants Flavors and Fragrances
41 Summary: Specialty Chemicals in Other Asia Current Market Electronics Chemicals are dominants in Other Asia because of S. Korea and Taiwan S. Korea and Taiwan accounts Total 35-40% of the Specialty Chemicals in other Asia 80% in Electronics Chemicals 20-25% in other specialty chemicals Future Growth Consumption Growth is high in the region: 3-4% in other Asia including S. Korea and Taiwan 5-6% excluding S. Kore and Taiwan
42 Conclusion Specialty Chemical is performance based chemical Each region has the different consumption pattern Consumption is in line with GDP per capita Asia will drive the growth Different mindset is required Not volume oriented Longer-term commitment Large R&D and technical service
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