Potential uses of Indices (PDSI,CMI) and other Indicators to estimate drought in Barbados. Presented by: Shontelle Stoute

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1 Potential uses of Indices (PDSI,CMI) and other Indicators to estimate drought in Barbados Presented by: Shontelle Stoute

2 What is drought? Insufficient quantity of water, relative to what is normal, to satisfy a particular demand/activity (often) over a prolonged period of time Different definitions of drought according to users Meteorological, Hydrological, Socio-economical, Agricultural

3 Why Drought Monitoring? Rainfall in the Caribbean Characterized by a wet and a dry season At least 70 to over 80 % of the rainfall occurs during the wet season Large seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variability associated with ENSO, SST anomalies and NAO Rainfall also cyclical 50 years

4 Moving 10 year averages of rainfall at Edgecumbe, Barbados (Burton 1995) Wet season rainfall as a percentage of annual rainfall (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999).

5 Top row: Fractional change in precipitation DJF and JJA between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models. Bottom row: number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitation.

6 Drought Monitoring There are several indices and indicators which can be used to assess drought. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Crop Moisture Index (CMI) Deciles Percentage of Normal Soil Moisture Stream, river, reservoir and lake levels State of forest and natural vegetation State of ecosystem

7 Focus of paper Agricultural drought. below normal availability such that crops suffer yield-reducing water stress as a result of inadequate soil moisture Concentrating on PDSI, CMI, Soil moisture Annually, wet and dry seasons, boreal seasons

8 PDSI and CMI Developed by W.C.Palmer (1965) Measures degree of dryness or wetness of a location based on supply and demand concept of water balance equation 1. Precipitation Temperature Thornwaite s Evapotranspiration. Available Water Capacity (AWC) 1 National Agricultural Decision Support System (

9 Thornwaite Equation and its parameters Where, PET = 16 (10T i / I) α (N/12) (1/30) α = ( I 771 I I 3 ) x I = (T i /5) i=1 N T a mean monthly sunshine hour mean monthly temperature 0 C Source: Alkaeed et. al 2006

10 AWC estimates for all locations using Hudson (pers. comm.) and Vernon and Carroll (1966) Location APE BEL CAN CON DRA EDG AWC (mm) Location GIA HUS NIC ORA PIC THI AWC (mm)

11 Stations - Barbados Station Apes Hill Bellville Cane Field Constant Drax Hall Edgecumbe Grantley Adams Husbands Nicholas Abbey Orange Hill Pickering Thickets Abbreviation APE BEL CAN CON DRA EDG GIA HUS NIC ORA PIC THI

12 Classifications 4.0 or more Extremely wet -0.5 to Incipient dry spell 3.0 to 3.99 Very wet -1.0 to Mild drought PDSI 2.0 to to 1.99 Moderately wet Slightly wet -2.0 to to Moderate drought Severe drought 0.5 to 0.99 Incipient wet spell -4.0 or less Extreme drought 0.49 to Near normal Source: CMI +3.0 and above 2.0 to to to to to or Less Excessively Wet Wet Abnormally Moist Slightly Dry /Favourably Moist Abnormally Dry Excessively Dry Severely dry Source:

13 Water Balance Statistical Program (INSTAT vs. 3.29) Based on water balance equation Precipitation Evaporation (Penman Monteith) AWC (using Hudson, Vernon and Carroll) Water Balance Equation and its parameters P = Q + E + S Where: P Q E S precipitation received runoff (influenced by the slope of the land) evaporation change in water storage in the soil

14 Penman Monteith Equation and Parameters where: λ Latent Heat of Vaporization r a Actual Vapor Pressure γ Psychometric Constant r s Saturated Vapor Pressure ρ a Density of the Air R n Net Radiation e s Saturated Vapour Pressure Δ Slope of Saturation Vapor e a Saturated Vapor Pressure of Pressure Curve at Air c p Specific Heat at Constant Pressure Temperature G Soil Heat Flux Source: Food and Agricultural Organization (

15 Results

16

17 Inde x m oisture (m m ) Index moisture (mm) Average Yearly PDSI,CMI and Water Balance Average Dry Season PDSI,CMI and Water Balance Average Wet Season PDSI,CMI and Water Balance Index moisture (mm) PDSI CMI Water Balance

18

19

20 January index moisture (mm) CMI PDSI WB July index moisture (mm) April CMI PDSI WB CMI PDSI WB October October index moisture (mm) index moisture (mm) CMI PDSI WB CMI PDSI WB

21 Comparisons Between CMI, Water Balance And Actual Water Content (January July 2007) index AW (mm)/vol Content (m 3 m -3 *100) -4 0 CMI WB WC CMI vs. WB 0.64 CMI vs. WC 0.74 WB vs. WC 0.74

22 Conclusion Maps of indices and indicators generally depict expected patterns of moisture across Barbados Revealed years of mild to moderate (and close to severe) drought some corresponding to El Nino years (1978, , , and ) Added benefit of estimating the intensity of drought PDSI, CMI and estimated WB could be useful indicators of agricultural drought in Barbados conditions

23 Future Work Investigating trends in the indices and indicators Investigate other indices Has formed part of the ongoing work of the Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN), which assesses agricultural drought in the Caribbean.

24 Thank You

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