Recent developments affecting the supply-demand-balance of acidspar: The buyers view. Dr. Oliver Rhode LANXESS Deutschland GmbH

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1 Recent developments affecting the supply-demand-balance of acidspar: The buyers view Dr. Oliver Rhode LANXESS Deutschland GmbH

2 Agenda Introduction Recent developments affecting the demand Recent developments affecting the supply FSA and other alternatives Summary & Outlook 2

3 LANXESS facts and figures 3

4 LANXESS facts and figures 4

5 LANXESS produces hydrofluoric acid in Leverkusen, Germany Berlin Leverkusen Frankfurt Munich 5

6 Standard specification for acidspar - Min. 97% CaF 2. - Max. 1% silica (SiO 2 ). - Max. 1% carbonate (CaCO 3 ). - Max. 10ppm arsenic. - Max. 300ppm phosphorus. - Max. 0.10% sulfur as sulfide or free sulfur. - Restrictions on iron, lead and other metals. - Restrictions on organics. - Particle size: maximum 10% +150 microns, 60% -45 microns. - Max. 10% water content as filter cake. 6

7 The balance of supply and demand of acidspar is determined by various factors Factors affecting the supply Supply-Demand- Balance New projects (green-field, brownfield, met-spar upgrading). Capacity expansion of existing producers. Export-policy of China. Factors affecting the demand Development of the downstream markets (fluorocarbons, fluoropolymers, AlF 3 ). Development of HF-market. Alternatives to replace acidspar or downstream products. 7

8 The domestic market in China is the trigger for the global supply-demand-balance China has become the largest fluorochemical production and consumption area. Supply-Demand- Balance Although the role of China has changed, it still dominates the acidspar market. As long as the domestic demand is strong, there is no incentive for any producer to switch to higher grade export material. Several non-chinese producers of acidspar adopt the pricing scheme of Chinese acidspar exports. 8

9 Agenda Introduction Recent developments affecting the demand Recent developments affecting the supply FSA and other alternatives Summary & Outlook 9

10 The average annual growth rate for acidspar is estimated at 1,5% per year Products Demand approx. % of HF consumption* Non-Feedstock Fluorocarbons Refrigerants Foaming agents Aerosols steady 35% Feedstock Fluorocarbons PTFE PVDF PEEK FPE AAGR 2,5% 15% Aluminum Fluoride AlF 3 AAGR 2% 25% Uranium enrichment AAGR 2% 25% Stainless steel pickling Others Gasoline alkylation Electronics Glass etching Source: Roskill, SRI, own estimates *based on 2.1 mt HF produced in

11 Fluorine-based replacements for existing fluorocarbons affects acidspar demand Environmental pressures are opposing the application of some fluorochemical products. Fluorine-based replacements for these fluorocarbons affects the future acidspar demand. Replacement candidates are hydrofluoroolefins of the HFO-1234-type for use in automotive air-conditioning systems and aerosol applications. 11

12 Production development of fluorocarbons and fluoropolymers in China kt HCFC-22 HFC-134a PTFE (HCFC-22) other fluoropolymers Source: CCR, SRI, own estimates

13 China s fluorochemical industry needs technological innovation China's fluorochemical industry has largest capacity in the world. Industry has developed by relying on resource advantage and simple production technologies. Capacity of high-value-added fluorochemicals is very limited. Positioning at the low end of the industrial chain with no differentiation of products. Research of high-end fluorochemical products is weak. Chinese government has issued policies to support the development towards a high-tech industry. Source: CCR 13

14 China encourages the production of highvalue fluorocarbons and fluoropolymers Production Chain Acidspar HF Fluorocarbons Fluoropolymers Current Situation Future Situation restricting exports extreme overcapacity overcapacity (primary products) further restrictions (?) moderate overcapacity balanced capacity (shift to advanced products) overcapacity (primary products) balanced capacity (shift to advanced products) Apparent China Strategy Safeguard domestic availability of (low cost) raw material Emphasize use in domestic downstream production, reduction of overcapacity Develop more capacity for domestic & export demand, focus on highend fluorocarbons Develop more capacity for domestic & export demand, focus on highend fluoropolymers Vertical integration 14

15 Global production volume of aluminum fluoride in 2010 Total production volume approx. 830 kt 6% 19% China NAFTA 59% WE 16% ROW Source: AIT, own estimates 15

16 Global production capacities for hydrofluoric acid in 2010 Total installed production capacity approx. 2.6 mt Average plant utilization rate estimated at 80% = 2.1 mt HF produced 9% 11% China NAFTA 11% 54% WE ROW 15% CIS Source: CCR, Roskill, SRI, own estimates 16

17 Recent developments in the production of hydrofluoric acid in China 1/2 HF production capacity has expanded rapidly. Today more than 50 HF producers. 2010: HF output approx. 940 kt, up 12% from Average plant utilization rate was 67%. Exports of HF accounted for 160 kt, up 48% from Largest export destination was Japan (46% of total HF exports), followed by Taiwan (19%) and Korea (14%). HF producers mainly distributed in the southeast; they are now beginning to move towards Inner Mongolia. 17

18 Recent developments in the production of hydrofluoric acid in China 2/2 Consumption will continue to grow at 6% to 7% annually and will reach 1.08 mt in Average plant utilization rate of will remain at 60% to 70%. February "Access Conditions for Hydrogen Fluoride Industry": total HF capacity of any new producer should be at least 50 kt/a, and capacity of any new HF plant should be not less than 20 kt/a. April "Guiding Catalogue for Restructuring of Fluorine Chemical Industry : construction of new HF plants should be restricted, and HF plants with a capacity of less than 5 kt/a should be eliminated. 18

19 Agenda Introduction Recent developments affecting the demand Recent developments affecting the supply FSA and other alternatives Summary & Outlook 19

20 Production capacity of acidspar by country in 2010 according to standard specification CIS 220 kt Spain 140 kt Germany 30 kt Bulgaria 30 kt Mongolia 140 kt Mongolia 50 kt China kt Mexico 500 kt China 500 kt Mexico 120 kt Morocco 100 kt Kenya 100 kt Namibia 120 kt out of specification within specification, but captive within specification, not captive kt 290 kt kt South Africa 300 kt Source: Roskill, own estimates 20

21 Historic developments in the production of acidspar in China Early 1990s: China has become a major source of supply. Production elsewhere declined. Domestic demand has grown at an AAGR of 20% since 2000, compared to less than 1% in Europe or North America. Since 2004: Chinese government introduced a number of policies which reduced exports of acidspar. Lower export from China was not balanced by other producers. 21

22 Recent developments in the production of acidspar in China April "Notification on the 2010 Mining Quotas for Fluorite : national total mining quota for fluorite ore is 11 mt in May "Production Quotas of Fluorite for Every Province in 2010 national production quota for acidspar is 2.44 mt. The actual output of acidspar exceeded the quota. June 2010: fluorite resource tax increased from 3 RMB/t to 20 RMB/t. Reduction of the 2011 national total fluorite mining quota by 500 kt. 22

23 Chinese annual exports of acidspar and average FOB-price Volume [kt] FOB-Price [USD/t] Source: CCR Jan.-Sep. 150

24 Where can we source new acidspar supplies in the future? Additional potential volume of acidspar of more than 1 mt 24

25 Agenda Introduction Recent developments affecting the demand Recent developments affecting the supply FSA and other alternatives Summary & Outlook 25

26 Will flurosilicic acid contribute to the supplydemand-balance of acidspar? Main fluorine resources are fluorite, phosphate rock, apatite, cryolite, sellaite, sodium fluoride and bastnaesite. Fluorite supplies around 92% of global fluorine demand. Phosphate rock contains up to 3.5% fluorine, and it accounts for more than 90% of the world's fluorine reserves. One ton of wet-process phosphoric acid (WPA) can yield approximately 50-60kg flurosilicic acid (FSA). A potential 3.5 mt of equivalent acidspar would be available as by-product FSA. 26

27 Will flurosilicic acid contribute to the supplydemand-balance of acidspar? High capital and processing costs have militated against FSA as acidspar replacement. First HF plant using FSA opened in China in April Approx. 300 kt of acidspar equivalent, in the form of FSA, is used in AlF 3 manufacture. Around kt of FSA are used in water fluoridation. Remainder is generally neutralised, discharged, ponded or pumped to sea. 27

28 Neither FSA nor another raw material will replace acidspar in the next couple of years Increased utilisation of FSA is unlikely to progress significantly. China promotes the further development of HF-production from FSA. A few thousand tons per year of synthetic acidspar is recovered - primarily from uranium enrichment, but also from gasoline alkylation and stainless steel pickling. Aluminum smelting dross, borax, calcium chloride, iron oxides, manganese ore, silica sand, and titanium dioxide have been used as substitutes for acidspar fluxes. Neither FSA nor another raw material will replace acidspar in he next couple of years. 28

29 Agenda Introduction Recent developments affecting the demand Recent developments affecting the supply FSA and other alternatives Summary & Outlook 29

30 Uncertainty and turbulence in the markets - Health of economies in Europe, - United States debt, - China dilemma: low inflation rate vs. GDP growth. The further development of the global economy depends on these topics, and consequently the development of the fluorochemical industry. 30

31 Will demand for acidspar outstrip supply in the next five years? After the worldwide recession, acidspar markets recovered in 2010, and continued to grow in Supply-Demand- Balance Supply was tight in the middle of 2011, now the situation changed, acidspar is readily available. Supply and demand are in balance there is no structural deficit of acidspar. No significant acidspar supply-demand-gap is expected in the next couple of years. 31

32 Do you believe China will become a net importer of acidspar in the next five years? Results of a recent non-representative survey Non-Chinese Yes Chinese No We asked Chinese and non-chinese market participants: Do you believe China will become a net importer of acidspar in the next five years? All Chinese answered No. In contrast, the non-chinese believe Yes. 32

33 Thank You for Your Attention

34

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