CLIMATE INFORMATION IN HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT JANNEKE ETTEMA, VICTOR JETTEN, DINAND ALKEMA, THEA TURKINGTON

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1 CLIMATE INFORMATION IN HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT JANNEKE ETTEMA, VICTOR JETTEN, DINAND ALKEMA, THEA TURKINGTON

2 FIRE ENSCHEDE - YESTERDAY On fire ~100 m ITC building Short rain event made the wind direction change -> EVACUATION Photo: C. Agema

3 FLOODING CHAO PHRAYA RIVER JULY 2011 JAN deaths 13.6 million people affected 65 out of 77 provincies flood zone 20,000 km 2 of farmland damaged 1,425 billion baht (US$ 45.7 Bn) damage MODIS image of flooding in Thailand from 19 October. Source:

4 Flooding in Bangkok October 2011 Bangkok more rain than normal (annually 1,400-1,500 mm; up to Oct 17, 2011: 2,189 mm) Enhanced water release upstream dams from August 1 to Oct 16, 2011 compared to other years

5 ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION OR MISMANAGEMENT? Thai Met. Dept.

6 HOW CAN WE PREVENT A DISASTER OF THIS MAGNITUDE? Society: How can people be better prepared? Early warning system, evacuation plans, etc What risk reduction measures could be taken? Spatial planning, capacity building, etc. What are the economic most vulnerable areas? Industry, schools, hospitals, etc. Hazard: What are the characteristics of the hazard? Return period, type, spatial extent, etc. What were the causes or triggering mechanisms? Man-made, natural, domino-effect, etc. How the climate change impact the hazard probability? Multi-disciplinary approach needed

7 OUTLINE Introduction Hazard risk assessment; some theory Two case studies: Soil erosion in Morocco Hydrometeorological hazards in Europe

8 WHAT IS A HAZARD? The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources (SREX, 2012)

9 WHAT IS A DISASTER? Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery (SREX, 2012).

10 WHAT IS A DISASTER? serious disruption causing widespread damage ability to cope

11 WHAT IS A DISASTER? A natural process Society Dynamics Triggers Frequency Location RISK Vulnerability Cost\ Impact Inventory Awareness Coping strategies DISASTER

12 WHAT IS A DISASTER? A natural process Society Dynamics Triggers Frequency Location RISK Vulnerability Cost\ Impact Inventory Awareness Coping strategies RISK: The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted DISASTER or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between (natural, human-induced or man-made) hazards and vulnerable conditions.

13 RISK ASSESSMENT CONCEPT Climate information

14 CYCLE OF INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT EEA, 2010

15 CLIMATE INFORMATION IMPACTS HAZARD, RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Climatic Change: Temperature rise, sea level rise and more extreme events in the field of hydrometeorologic disasters Hazard Risk Vulnerable society RISK REDUCTION Population growth; urbanization; bad planning; complex societies, food security

16 SEHOUL AREA - MOROCCO Severe soil erosion by gully, water and drought Major drivers of degradation are inadequate land management, land use change, groundwater overexploitation Spatial and temporal rainfall distribution is major importance for land management planning

17 LAND USE 15-m land use derived from ASTER satellite (21 Oct 2011)

18 RAINFALL TEMPORAL VARIABILITY RABAT STATION Rainy season: Sept 1 August 31 Annual mean: 540 ± 160 mm Days with no rain: 286 days Days > 30 mm: 18 days (20% of rainy days)

19 NDVI NORMALISED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX SPOT SATELLITE Anomaly from the average annual max NDVI

20 NDVI - PRECIPITATION R = 0.71

21 IMPORTANT FOR FARMERS: LENGTH RAINY SEASON

22 SOIL EROSION MODELING (PRELIMINARY RESULTS) Limitations: One rain gauge No detailed soil map No discharge data No erosion / gully map BUT: gully detection could be possible with RS HOWEVER, human perception of farmers on adaptation measures complicates implementation of sustainable land management AND does the climate change?

23 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS IN EUROPE OVER PERIOD EEA, 2010

24 NUMBER DISASTERS DUE TO NATURAL HAZARDS NUMBERS FOR EUROPE EEA, 2010

25 PILOT AREAS - EXTREME EVENTS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS Medium to small scales hazards: focus on flooding and landslides

26 Precipitation- 3 month total (mm) HAZARD TRIGGER ANALYSIS - RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION Seasonal precipitation, Barcelonnette Seasonal precipitation, Pontebba France Alps Precipitation - 3 month total (mm) Italian Alps Season Barcelonnette Season Pontebba Count 5 4 Count Annual maximum daily precipitation (mm) Annual maximum daily precipitation

27 160 LANDSLIDE-PRECIPITATION CORRELATION PRELIMINARY RESULTS Precipitation [mm] Precipitation (mm) Other factors do play an role in triggering Daily total 15 day total Daily total 15 day total /12/ /04/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /10/ /02/ /07/ /11/2010

28 TRANSLATING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS INTO EXPECTED CHANGES FOR HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT 1. Analysis of historical hydro-meteorological extreme events based on observations, satellite and re-analysis data to get better understanding of correlation between weather and hazards 2. Analysis of expected climate changes in triggering conditions and extreme weather events 3. Downscale climate change projections with focus on extreme weather events 99.9% percentile for daily precipitation

29 MARIE CURIE PROJECT: CHANGES - INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT CHANGES stands for: Changing Hydro-meteorological risks as Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists To develop an advanced understanding of how global changes will affect the temporal and spatial patterns of landslides and flooding, and its associated risks in Europe how these changes can be assessed and modeled how these can be incorporates in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication

30 FRAMEWORK CHANGES-PROJECT

31 Thank you

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