The Earth s Changing Climate

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1 The Earth s Changing Climate Brenda Gail Bergman, 2013 Subject/ target grade: High school 10 th grade biology. Duration: Three classroom sessions of 50 minutes each. Setting: Classroom Materials and Equipment Needed: Overhead projector and/or document camera Computers with a spreadsheet / graphics program such as Microsoft Excel, and with internet connection. (note: if internet connection is not available, the teacher can download data before class and upload it onto the class computers) Learning Objectives: Students will be able to: Diagram the greenhouse effect Explain trends over the past hundred years in atmospheric CO 2 and global temperature. Describe human actions that increase levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Explain the difference between inter- annual variation and climate change Download data directly from scientific institutions Produce and interpret graphs, including trend lines, starting with raw data Orally present and discuss findings from data analysis Identify ways in which humans can reduce greenhouse gas emissions Michigan Content Expectations: B3.4C Examine the negative impact of human activities. B3.4d Describe the greenhouse effect and list possible causes. B3.4e List the possible causes and consequences of global warming. Lesson Core The Guiding Questions: How does the greenhouse effect relate to the earth s climate? How do human activities affect the earth s temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide? How have the earth s temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide been changing over the past century? Engage: What is the difference between weather and climate? The difference is a matter of time. Weather is what happens over shorter periods of time, such as a day, season and year. Climate refers to the average weather conditions in a certain place over many years. For example, the climate in Upper Michigan is cold and snowy in the winter, and the climate in Hawaii is warm and humid all year long. Building on prior knowledge: Imagine that last winter was much warmer than usual where you live. Is this a sign of climate change? o No. The weather naturally varies from year to year, and some years are hotter than others. Imagine that almost every summer for the past decade has been warmer than usual. Is this a sign of climate change? o This could be a sign of climate change, particularly if it is happening in multiple places around the world. An important principle of ecology is that natural systems are always changing. The earth s climate has changed previously. However, ever since the time of the industrial revolution, the rate of change has accelerated at an unprecedented pace. We will consider some of the main reasons that this is happening. 1

2 Pre- teaching: * For a list of optional resources and associated questions that students may be assigned to review ahead of the class, please see Attachment 1. Carbon cycle A review of the carbon cycle prior to this lesson is very useful, as it makes a connection between science that students have learned previously in biology (carbon and nutrient cycling), and a phenomenon about which some students may have skepticism (global climate change). Main points (see power point for slides to accompany these): Carbon is one of the main components of cells, and is found in all organic molecules. Organisms get energy by breaking down carbon compounds in the process of respiration or decomposition, which releases carbon dioxide. Oil and other fossil fuels were once plants. They therefore contain carbon. This carbon is released when fossil fuels are combusted, in the form of CO 2. Although the largest storage (pool) of carbon is in rocks, the largest carbon fluxes over short time periods include fossil fuel burning, land use changes, photosynthesis/respiration, and ocean fluxes. Questions that may accompany the carbon cycle review: What is a flux? A flux represents a net change in the amount of something over time. What is a pool? A pool represents storage of a substance, which is relatively stable over time. What element is a main component of all living organisms on earth? Carbon. What are fossil fuels derived from? Dead plants and animals What element must fossil fuels therefore contain? Carbon What form of carbon is released when an organic substance that contains carbon is broken down, for example in the process of decomposition? Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Consider the carbon balance between the processes of photosynthesis and respiration, in the diagram of the carbon cycle. What is the net difference? Why? There is a net flux of carbon being stored by plants, because the plants use this carbon to build their physical structure. If we cut down a large amount of trees, what would happen to the carbon that is contained in their cells? The carbon would be released as CO 2 through decomposition or burning of the material. What kinds of land use changes are likely to affect the global carbon budget? Deforestation, draining of wetlands and melting of arctic tundra are some changes with major effects, because they all enable carbon stored in plant material to be decomposed, releasing CO 2. 2

3 Greenhouse effect Gases in the atmosphere are able to absorb and reflect radiated heat from Earth back to Earth s surface. Some of the heat they absorb does get radiated to space, but some gets radiated back toward Earth. The name greenhouse effect can be misleading. The atmosphere is different from a greenhouse in that it radiates energy back to Earth rather than simply trapping energy inside. 1 Heat- trapping or greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), ozone and nitrous oxide. Some of the solar radiation that reaches the earth is absorbed by the rocks, waters, living organisms and manmade structures on the Earth's surface, while the rest is reradiated back from the warm surface into the atmosphere in the form of long- wave, infrared radiation called heat energy. Part of this heat energy is reabsorbed by the greenhouse gases. They keep the lower atmosphere much warmer- - without these heat- trapping gases, our planet would be as inhospitable as the moon. The rest of the heat energy escapes back out into space. This balance of incoming and outgoing radiation determines the Earth's temperature. 2 3 Climate change 4 Heat- trapping gases are also called greenhouse gases. They exist naturally in the atmosphere, 1 Source: 2 Source: 3 Source: 4 Adapted from epa.gov where they help keep the Earth warm enough for plants and animals to live. But people are adding extra greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. These extra gases are causing the Earth to get warmer, setting off changes in the world s climate, land, oceans, and atmosphere. By the mid- 1800s, people around the world were increasingly burning large amounts of coal, oil, and natural gas for energy used in factories, homes, rail roads and vehicles. Today, most of the world relies on these fossil fuels for our energy needs. Fossil fuel combustion releases carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gasses into the atmosphere. Other human activities have also added to the amount of atmospheric heat trapping gasses. This includes: 1) Human changes to vegetation cover have increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. These are referred to as land use changes. What kind of land use changes most affect atmospheric CO 2? Why? o Deforestation. Forests store large amounts of carbon, because trees take up CO 2 from the atmosphere and, through photosynthesis, use this to produce carbohydrates and other components that make up the tree. When forests are cleared, the trees are burned or decomposed, releasing their carbon as CO 2. o Deforestation is estimated to contribute approximately 1/3 of all CO2 that humans release into the atmosphere. 5 2) Agriculture and clearing of wetlands have increased the amount of methane in the atmosphere. Methane is even more potent than CO 2 in its heat- trapping ability as a greenhouse gas. Methane is also a carbon compound. Each molecule of methane is composed of one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms (CH 4 ). What kind of human activities release methane into the atmosphere? o Domestic meat production, landfills, draining of wetlands, fossil fuel combustion. In the United States, 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3

4 human activities that currently release the most methane are 1) burning of natural gas, 2) meat production, and 3) landfills. Why would meat production increase methane? o Vast quantities of domestic livestock are raised to support the large human demand for mea. Currently, most livestock feed is enriched with nitrogen to reduce feeding costs. This feeds bacteria that produce methane inside of the livestock s stomachs, and bacteria that produce methane from the animals waste. As we discussed earlier, global climate change refers to a pattern of change that happens over many years. One of the most important trends that scientists look at is the average temperature of the Earth, which has been increasing for many years. This is called global warming. In the United States, seven of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1990! Warmer temperatures have many ripple effects throughout the earth. Because of the way that earth systems are interconnected, a change in one system and location can lead to other changes in other places. What kind of effects could warmer temperatures have on earth systems? o Melting glaciers, stronger hurricanes, loss of wildlife habitat, and changing temperatures of ocean currents. What is an example of how a change in one system can affect another? o (one example): When air temperatures rise, the oceans absorb more heat from the atmosphere and become warmer. Warmer oceans, in turn, can cause stronger storms. Explore: Distribute student hand- outs, attachment #2 Group exercise #1 (15 minutes) You are going to explore sets of data collected by various scientific and U.S. Government agencies. You will download the data set of your choice, and then prepare a graph to show changes over time. There are hundreds of data sets on climate variables from around the world. These are just a few examples. Your choices are: Temperature: 1. Global mean temperature, Monthly temperature deviation from the 25 year average for the Northern Hemisphere, Monthly temperature deviation from the 25 year average for the Southern Hemisphere, Atmospheric CO 2 : 4. Manua Loa CO 2 monthly mean data, Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use changes: South America, Global, USA, ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt 10 houghton.html 4

5 6. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning in the U.S.A.: Global CO 2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning,Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: (Write numbers on the board to correspond with these data sets, while the accompanying power point slide is projected to show what each of the numbers represents). In pairs: 1. Select a data set that you are interested in working on. When you have chosen a set, write your initials next to it on the board. Additional groups can only replicate data sets once all of the sets have been assigned at least once. 2. Use a computer with internet access to open and look at your selected data set. 3. Answer the following questions: Who is responsible for the data? How is it collected? 4. Discuss and determine what would be the best graphical format for presenting the data to assess whether a trend exists over time. We will then review your answers with the whole class. Plenary discussion Discuss student answers in plenary. Have a pair of students illustrate the proposed x and y axis of their graph on the board, and explain why they chose these. Note that in time series graphs, the x axis should be the temporal variable. Group exercise #2 (20 minutes) With your partner, prepare a graph of your data using a spreadsheet or graphic program such as microsoft excel. Your graph should clearly show how your dependent variable changes over the time period that your data set covers emis_mon_usatotal.dat 12 To prepare the graph, select the columns that contain your x and y variables. Use the graphing tools of Excel to create a graph with these values. Your plot should show data points, but no connecting lines. Why would we not want to plot connecting lines at this stage? Be sure to label the figure and both axes. The figure title should explain what is plotted, and the range of years of the data. Each axis title should include the unit of measurement. Consider whether or not a trend line would be appropriate for your graph. Try to insert a trend line, and see whether this line serves as a good description of the general trend of your data. To insert a trend line, click on one data point in your graph, which should highlight all the points in that series. From the menu at the top of the excel page, select chart tools - > layout - > trend line - > linear trend line. Is this line appropriate to your graph? If so, include the equation of this line on your graph by selecting trendline options - > display equation on chart. Note the slope from the trend line equation. What does the slope of the line tell you? Use the slope to explain in words how much your variable changed per year, on average, over the time period of your data. Anticipated Student Misconceptions, Problems and Challenges Students may think that global warming and the greenhouse effect are the same thing. Correction: global warming is the name given to the phenomena whereby the surface of the Earth gets hotter. The greenhouse effect refers to the fact that our planet is warmer with an atmosphere than it would be without. 13 Students may think that a change in the weather from one year to the next can be used as an argument for or against climate change. Correction: climate change happens over periods of many years. In order to understand 13 Source: 5

6 climate change, we must look at general trends over decades. Students may think that the ozone hole causes global warming. Correction: Global warming is caused by increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A depletion of ozone allows more UV light to reach the surface, but is not an important factor leading to increased temperature on Earth. 14 Students may think that the greenhouse effect is inherently bad. Correction: The action of our atmosphere to enhance the amount of heat on earth is essential for life on earth to exist. We begin to experience problems, however, when we have too many greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Students may think that humans are not adding enough carbon dioxide to the atmosphere to make a difference, because the atmosphere is big and carbon dioxide makes up a small fraction of the total gases. Correction: Most gases in the atmosphere do not trap heat. Greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide do trap heat. Even though they may make up a relatively small percentage of the atmosphere, the way in which greenhouse gases trap heat causes them to have a large effect on the earth s temperatures. 15 Elaboration: Group exercise #3 Meet with other groups that were working on the same data set. Come to a common agreement about the main components of the graph (x and y axis, axis titles, graph title, presence or absence of a trend line, and description of how your variable changed over time). Discuss your findings. Work together to answer the questions in your hand- out. 1. What are the trends in your variable? 14 Source: 15 Source: 2. How might it change during this century? 3. Does it consistently change in one direction every year? Why or why not? 4. How might these changes vary for different places in the world? 5. How might these changes vary seasonally? 6. How might different human activities affect these changes? 7. Provide a summary description of how your variable (temperature or CO 2 ) has changed over time. If you used a trend line, include the slope in your description. Plenary discussion Come together as a class. Each larger group that worked with the same data set will share your findings, using the overhead projector (if available). Finally, we will make another set of figures using the same data, but with an adjusted time scale so that we can compare the changes in the different figures. What is the latest starting point of these data sets? What is the earliest ending point of any of these data sets (excluding Monthly CO2 emissions from fossil- fuel burning in the U.S.A.)? We will use these as the starting and ending point of all data sets, so that we can easily compare changes of the different variables when looking at the different graphs. Group exercise #4 Meet with another group that plotted a different type of variable than you did. For example, if you plotted a CO 2 variable, meet with a group that plotted a temperature variable. Consider the full set of graphs produced by the class, and answer the following questions Evaluate: Students review the graphs with common timelines side- by- side, and summarize trends and relationships. Supporting students during evaluation: What major patterns do you observe among the different data sets? 6

7 What similarities do we see between changes in CO 2 and changes in temperature? If one winter is warmer than the previous winter, does this indicate that the climate is not warming? Why or why not? In ecology, we have a term called inter- annual variability. This means that from year to year, conditions differ. How is inter- annual variability in temperature or CO 2 different from climate change? What are some human actions that could explain the trends in CO 2 emissions in South America? What are some actions we can take in our personal lives to help reduce the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere? 7

8 Attachment 1: Resources that may be assigned to students before the class Greenhouse effect introduction warming/gw- overview- interactive/ The carbon crisis in 90 seconds: Climate change, how do we know? Video on arctic sea ice changes, 2012: sea- ice- melt- 2012_n_ html NASA interactive Climate Time Machine 1

9 Attachment 2: Student hand out Data sets to work with: Temperature: 1. Global mean temperature, Monthly temperature deviation from the 25 year average for the Northern Hemisphere, Monthly temperature deviation from the 25 year average for the Southern Hemisphere, Atmospheric CO 2 : 4. Manual Loa CO 2 monthly mean data 5. Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use changes, South America 6. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning in the U.S.A.: Global CO 2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: Group exercise #1 For the access websites and specific instructions for each data set, refer to instructions at the end of this sheet. In pairs: Use a computer with internet access to open and look at your selected data set Answer the following questions: 1. What organization is responsible for managing the data? 2. Do they manage this in coordination with others? If so, what other organizations are involved? 3. Are these sources more or less trustworthy than if the data came from an individual person or university? Why or why not? Discuss and determine what would be the best graphical format for presenting the data to assess whether a trend exists over time. Group exercise #2 1. Prepare a graph of your data using a spreadsheet or graphic program such as microsoft excel. Your graph should clearly show how your dependent variable changes over the time period that your data set covers. Your plot should show data points, but no connecting lines yet. To prepare the graph: Select the columns that contain your x and y variables. Use the graphing tools of Excel to create a graph with these values. Label the figure and both axes. The figure title should explain what is plotted, and the range of years of the data. Each axis title should include a unit of measurement. 2

10 2. Consider whether or not a trend line would be appropriate for your graph. Try to insert a trend line, and see whether this line is a good description of the general trend of your data. To insert a trend line: Click on one data point in your graph, which should highlight all the points in that series. From the menu at the top of the excel page, select chart tools - > layout - > trend line - > linear trend line. (Instructions may vary with different versions of software) Is this line appropriate to your graph? (yes or no) If so, include the equation of this line on your graph by selecting trendline options - > display equation on chart. 3. Note the slope from the trend line equation. What does the slope of the line tell you? Use the slope to explain in words how much your variable changed per year, on average, over the time span of your data. Group exercise #3 Meet with other groups that were working on the same data set. Discuss your findings. Come to a common agreement about the main components of the graph (x and y axis, axis titles, graph title, presence or absence of a trend line, and description of how your variable changed over time). Discuss your findings. 1. What are the trends in your variable? 2. How might it change during this century? 3. Does it consistently change in one direction every year? Why or why not? 3

11 4. How might these changes vary for different places in the world? 5. How might these changes vary seasonally? 6. How might different human activities affect these changes? 7. Provide a summary description of how your variable (temperature or CO 2 ) has changed over time. If you used a trend line, include the slope in your description. 4

12 Group exercise #4 Names Date Meet with another group that plotted a different type of variable than you did. For example, if you plotted a CO 2 variable, meet with a group that plotted a temperature variable. Consider the full set of graphs produced by the class, and answer the following questions: 1. Do the temperature data sets display year- to- year variation? a. If so, does this variation indicate changes in climate or changes in weather? b. Is the general trend of temperature change over decades, illustrated by the trend line, an indication of changes in climate or weather? c. What is the difference between climate and weather? 2. Compare the following CO 2 graphs: Monthly CO 2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning in the U.S.A.: Global CO 2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: a. Are CO 2 emissions in the U.S. changing at a similar rate as CO 2 emissions globally? Explain. Be sure to look at the same time periods when comparing graphs. b. What may be the cause of these changes in CO 2 emissions? 3. Consider the graph of Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use changes: South America, Global, USA, a. Since 1850, has Carbon flux to the atmosphere in the U.S. changed at a similar rate and direction as Carbon flux to the atmosphere globally? How are they different or similar? b. What major land use changes are likely to be affecting carbon flux to the atmosphere? c. Compare the Annual U.S. Carbon Dioxide emissions from to the Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from land use change over the same period. In order to compare them, be sure to consider the units. Are the units of CO 2 the same for both graphs? What is the difference between annual U.S. emissions in 1981 and in 2003? 5

13 Michigan Technological University GK12 Global Watershed Program What is the difference between Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use changes in the U.S. in 1981 and in 2003? Have land use changes in the U.S. compensated for changes in CO2 emissions? Explain. 4. The graph of Manua Loa CO2 monthly mean data, shows the amount of CO2 in dry air since What part of the carbon cycle may have changed to account for the changes of CO2 in the atmosphere? 5. How might the changes in temperature over decades be related to changes in atmospheric CO2 levels? Congratulations! You have graphed and analyzed data sourced directly from U.S. government scientific institutions including N ASA and the Department of Energy and the National Atmospheric and Oceanographic Institution. You are a budding climate scientist! Source: / Source: / Source: Source: 6

14 General instructions for importing data into excel: 1. With your mouse, select all the data and the header row. Right click on your mouse, and select copy. 2. Open excel. 3. Right click on your mouse, and select paste. 4. Save the file as a formatted text (space delimited) file. Click ok, then yes when message boxes arise. 5. Close the file. 6. Re- open the file. Select file open. In the bottom right corner, just above the open button, select all files from the drop down list. This tells excel to consider all files, not only those that are already in the excel format. 7. Navigate to the place where you saved your file. 8. Select the file and click open. 9. A text import wizard box will open. Be sure that fixed width is selected, and click next, next, and finish. 10. Check your header row against the original online data table to make sure that the columns are labeled properly. If they are not, then type in the correct column labels. Specific directions for each data set: Global temperature, The following site contains background information: For information about the institution that collects this data, click on GISS home near the top left The following site contains the data: 1. Follow the above directions for importing data into excel 2. You will work with the column labeled J- D. This is the annual mean temperature for the period January to December of each year. 3. For that column, conduct the following math to calculate the global mean temperature in degrees Fahrenheit for each year: Divide each entry by 100 to get changes in degrees Celsius. Multiply that result by 1.8(=9/5) to get changes in degrees Fahrenheit. Add 57.2, which is the estimated absolute global mean temperature for (The original values in your table are the variation from this mean). 4. Plot the global mean temperature by year. Monthly temperature deviation from the 25 year average for the Northern Hemisphere, The following website contains background information: The following website contains the data: 1. Follow the above directions for importing data into excel. 2. In your excel file, make a new column that contains the average deviation for each year. 3. Plot the average deviation by year. Monthly temperature deviation from the 25 year average for the Southern Hemisphere, The following website contains background information: The following website contains the data: 1. Follow the above directions for importing data into excel. 2. In your excel file, make a new column that contains the average deviation for each year. 3. Plot the average deviation by year. 7

15 Manua Loa CO 2 monthly mean data, : The following website contains background information: The following website contains the data: ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_mm_mlo.txt 1. Scroll down until you see the data 2. Follow the above directions for importing data into excel. 3. Plot the interpolated column as the independent variable, and the decimal date column as the dependent variable. 4. Set minimum CO 2 level on your graph to 280 parts per million. This is the maximum amount of CO 2 that had been in the atmosphere before the 20 th century for more than 650,000 years. 16 : Click on the axis until it is selected, left click and select format axis axis options minimum fixed Enter in the fixed value. 5. Remove the comma between values on the date axis: format axis number, and uncheck the, separator button. Carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use changes: South America, Global, USA, The following website contains background information: The following website contains the data: 1. Click on download excel file 2. Plot S+C America, Global and USA by year. Monthly Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning in the U.S.A.: The following website contains background information: The following website contains the data: 1. Follow the above directions for importing data into excel 2. Plot the annual total by year. Global CO 2 Emissions from Fossil- Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: The following website contains background information: The following website contains the data: 1. Click on Data (ASCII, Fixed Format) 2. Follow the above directions for importing data into excel. 3. Plot each of the components and the total by year

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