Renewable Energy in The Netherlands October 2016

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy in The Netherlands October 2016

2 Dr. Martien Visser Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen Partner of the Energy Academy Europe This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided. Oct-16 Page 2

3 The Entrance database on Renewable Energy is regularly improved by the creation and/or refinement of (sub)models Recent improvements September 2016: a graph presenting the daily CO2 emission per kwh from Dutch power plants has been added October 2016: in cooperation with Peter Segaar of PolderPV, the capacity of solar panels in the Netherlands has been adjusted upwards On 1 November 2016, a real time application for solar, wind biogas energy has been launched: Energieopwek.nl This real-time application was sponsored by SER, Gasunie New Energy, TenneT and NetbeheerNederland Oct-16 Page 3

4 October 2016 In a Nutshell CO2 emissions from energy usage were 12.3 Mton, 2% lower than last year Traction renewable energy was 5.2%, up from 4.7% last year. The percentage renewable power was 10.6%, slightly higher than last year. Electricity production by wind was 70% higher y-o-y and reached 0.48 TWh. Electricity production by solar-pv was 40% higher y-o-y and reached 0.08 TWh Average utilization of wind capacity was (just) 16% and of solar-pv, it was 6% The fraction renewable energy in Q has been assessed at 5.8% Oct-16 Page 4

5 Fraction Renewable Energy Q The fraction renewable energy has been calculated using the official EU regulations. In Q3 2016, the Netherlands produced 5.8% of its final energy consumption in the form of renewables. Dutch energy policy is focused to reach 14% renewable energy in Oct-16 Page 5

6 Content October 2016 data Monthly profiles Monthly data Energy Demand in a Nutshell Hourly data Miscellaneous Oct-16 Page 6

7 SELECTED ENERGY DATA FROM OCTOBER 2016 Oct-16 Page 7

8 Renewable Energy October 2016 Renewable Energy is produced in various forms. The most important contributor is biomass (biogas, waste, wood and bio-oil). In October 2016, according to the official rules, 5.2% of energy consumed in the Netherlands was renewable energy. Oct-16 Page 8

9 Final Energy Demand October 2016 Energy is used for many different purposes. In October 2016, the most important energy applications were gas (heating and industry) and oil for various forms of transport. Oct-16 Page 9

10 CO2 Emissions October 2016 In October, the national energy-related CO2 emissions, calculated using the official formula, are estimated at 14.4 Mton, down from 14.7 Mton in October Oct-16 Page 10

11 Power Generation Capacity October 2016 The capacity (beginning of October) is the so-called name-plate capacity. In practice, not all capacity is available for the market due to planned and unplanned maintenance and mothballing. Oct-16 Page 11

12 Power Supplies October 2016 In October 2016, power consumption was 9,1 TWh, 5% lower than last year. However, there is some doubt whether the power consumption data (of TenneT) are correct, the estimated demand for power may be revised upwards next month Oct-16 Page 12

13 CO2 from Power Generation October 2016 In October 2016, 70% of the CO2 emissions from the power sector came from the coal-fired power stations. The CO2 emissions from the net imports are given for comparison, since these do not contribute to the national CO2 emissions. Oct-16 Page 13

14 CO2 from Dutch Power Generation October 2016 The daily CO2 emission per kwh produced varies due to variations in the power mix. On average, the CO2 emission in October was 494 g/kwh, down form 497 gr/kwh in September. Oct-16 Page 14

15 SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES (using daily data) Oct-16 Page 15

16 Daily Renewable Energy October 2016 The daily contributions to the renewable energy, according to the classification by CBS. In October, for comparison, the average daily gross final energy consumption was 1580 GWh per day. One GWh is one million kwh or about m3 of natural gas. Oct-16 Page 16

17 Energy Demand October 2016 Energy demand shows a typical weekday-weekend pattern. Gas demand is partly dependent on ambient temperature. Oct-16 Page 17

18 Conventional Power Generation October 2016 Conventional power generation is characterized by high volatility in wind and solar production and low imports, and hence, fossil fuel generation, including coal-fired generation, varied significantly. A special day was Sunday October 16 th, with relative low power demand, high wind availability and high imports. Oct-16 Page 18

19 Daily Wind and Solar Power Production October 2016 October 2016 was characterized by low availability of wind and relative high solar production. The average utilization rate of the wind turbines was just 16% and for solar-pv it was 6%. 1 GWh is sufficient to provide power for a year for 300 households. Oct-16 Page 19

20 Contribution of Renewable Energy October 2016 In October, the percentage of renewable power varied between 5% and 18%, with an average of 10.6%. The average percentage of renewable energy was 5.2%. These percentages have been calculated using the official EU procedures. Oct-16 Page 20

21 SELECTED MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Oct-16 Page 21

22 Gross Final Energy Consumption 2016 (and 2015) The gross final consumption of energy is a quantity used to calculate the percentage of renewable energy. This quantity excludes the energy used in the energy sector (mainly due to the production of electricity), for international shipping and for feedstock and the energy used for international aviation above 6.18% of the total Oct-16 Page 22

23 Gas Demand (excluding gas-to-power) 2016 (and 2015) Gas consumption in October, excluding gas-to-power, was similar to last year. Oct-16 Page 23

24 Gas Production 2016 (and 2015) In October, Dutch natural gas production was slightly higher than last year. Oct-16 Page 24

25 Power Demand 2016 (and 2015) In October, Dutch power demand was 5% lower than last year, however, the power consumption may be adjusted next month. Oct-16 Page 25

26 Wind Production 2016 (and 2015) Wind production in October 2016 was 0.48 TWh, 70% higher than October last year. The average utilization of wind capacity, combined onshore and offshore, was 16%. Oct-16 Page 26

27 Solar PV Production 2016 (and 2015) In October 2016, electricity generation by Solar PV in The Netherlands reached 0.08 TWh. This was 40% higher than last year, because of the increase in solar-pv capacity and more sunshine. In October, the average utilization rate of solar-pv capacity was 6%. Oct-16 Page 27

28 Coal-to-Power 2016 (and 2015) In October, coal-fired power generation has been estimated to be lower than last year. Oct-16 Page 28

29 Gas to Power 2016 (and 2015) In October, gas-fired power has been estimated to be slightly lower than last year. Oct-16 Page 29

30 LNG imports 2016 (and 2015) This figure depicts the amount of LNG injected into the gas grid, as presented by GTS. The figure excludes the usage of LNG as transport fuel. 1 TWh is equal to about 100 million m3. October--15 Page 30

31 Renewable Energy All Sources 2016 (and 2015) This assessment is based on various assumptions. Renewable energy production in October was 9% higher than last year. Oct-16 Page 31

32 Renewable Energy Percentage 2016 (and 2015) In October, the percentage of renewable energy was 5.2%, this is 0.5% higher than last year. Oct-16 Page 32

33 CO2 Emissions 2016 (and 2015) After a significant rise of the CO2 emissions in 2015, compared to 2014, the CO2 emissions in 2016 are similar to those in In October, a reduction of 2% was recorded. Oct-16 Page 33

34 ENERGY DEMAND IN A NUTSHELL Oct-16 Page 34

35 Energy Demand October 2016 Dutch government has allocated Energy Demand in four categories. These categories (and this figure) do not take into account energy demand for international shipping, aviation and feedstock. During summer, energy demand for low temperature heat is very low. (1 GWh is about equal to the average daily energy production of 40 wind turbines of 3 MW each) Oct-16 Page 35

36 Energy Demand Low Temperature Heat The primary energy requirement for Low Temperature heat, mainly buildings and green houses, varies with ambient temperature. Oct-16 Page 36

37 Energy Demand High Temperature Heat The primary energy requirement for High Temperature Heat (mainly industry) varies with the economic activities in the Netherlands. The higher gas demand from industry indicates economic growth. Oct-16 Page 37

38 Energy Demand Transportation The primary energy requirement for Transportation (excluding international shipping and aviation) varies with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Fuel bought abroad, e.g. since taxes are lower, are not included in this figure. Oct-16 Page 38

39 Energy Demand Power Sector The primary energy requirement for the power sector varies, with the import/export balance and with the production of renewable power. This figure excludes the primary energy demand caused by power imports. Oct-16 Page 39

40 CO2 Emissions October 2016 This figure shows the daily CO2 emission of each of the four demand sectors. This figure does not take into account the energy demand for shipping, aviation and feedstock. During summer, CO2 emissions from lower temperature heat are very low. (1 kton CO2 is equal to the average daily CO2 emission of households, each using 1500 m3 gas and 3500 kwh electricity annually. Oct-16 Page 40

41 CO2 emissions Low Temperature Heat The CO2 emissions from Low Temperature Heat, mainly buildings and green houses, vary with ambient air temperature and the fraction of renewable energy which is used, mainly biomass and heat pumps. This figure excludes the CO2 emissions due to the production of electricity used in low temperature heating. Oct-16 Page 41

42 CO2 emissions High Temperature Heat CO2 emissions from High Temperature Heat, mainly industry, vary mainly with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Oct-16 Page 42

43 CO2 emissions Transportation CO2 emissions from Transportation (excluding international shipping and aviation, which are not accounted for in the national CO2 emissions) vary with the economic activity in the Netherlands. Fuel bought abroad, e.g. because of lower prices, is not included in this figure as well. Oct-16 Page 43

44 CO2 emissions Power Sector CO2 emissions from the power sector vary with the amount of coal used for power generation, the amount of renewable power produced, and the level of power imports. Oct-16 Page 44

45 SELECTED HOURLY ENERGY DATA Oct-16 Page 45

46 Gas Supply October 2016 The send-out of the gas storages is mainly related to ambient temperatures, but shows as well a week-weekend pattern. In October the storages were sometimes being filled, which is represented by negative values. Gas supplies include Dutch consumption and exports. Oct-16 Page 46

47 Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power October 2016 Domestic gas demand in October peaked at 35 GW. In this graph, the term industry is defined as direct connections to the Gasunie grid. The term distribution includes households, offices, commercials and small and medium size industries which are connected to the distribution grid. Oct-16 Page 47

48 Gas Imports & Exports October 2016 In October 2016, gas exports were about 47 TWh, while gas imports were 38 TWh. Oct-16 Page 48

49 Power Imports & Exports October 2016 In October 2016, power imports were 1.0 TWh, while power exports were 1.2 TWh, thus, The Netherlands had net power exports. Oct-16 Page 49

50 Wind Power October 2016 October 2016 was characterized by a low and volatile wind availability; the average utilization rate of the wind turbines was 16%. Oct-16 Page 50

51 Solar PV Power October 2016 October was not very sunny. The utilization rate of solar PV installed was just 6%. Oct-16 Page 51

52 The following set of slides presents for each month in 2016 the hourly contributions of various energy sources to total power consumption in The Netherlands. Oct-16 Page 52

53 Power Generation January 2016 In the week of January, gas-fired power generation peaked, due to low wind availability and net exports that occurred simultaneously. Oct-16 Page 53

54 Power Generation February 2016 In the second half of February, gas-fired power generation peaked, due to low wind availability and low imports. Oct-16 Page 54

55 Power Generation March 2016 Around Eastern, the demand for power was relatively low and there was a high availability of wind, both domestic and imported. Hence, significant domestic gas and coal-fired power production had to be taken out. Oct-16 Page 55

56 Power Generation April 2016 April 2016 was characterized by high imports and a volatile wind availability. Hence, fossil fuel generation varied significantly during the month. Oct-16 Page 56

57 Power Generation May 2016 May 2016 was characterized by high imports and a volatile wind availability. Hence, fossil fuel generation varied significantly during the month. Oct-16 Page 57

58 Power Generation June 2016 June 2016 was characterized by high power imports, outages of the nuclear and coalfired power plants and low wind availability. Oct-16 Page 58

59 Power Generation July 2016 July 2016 was characterized by high power imports and low wind availability. Oct-16 Page 59

60 Power Generation August 2016 August 2016 was characterized by high power imports and low wind availability. Oct-16 Page 60

61 Power Generation September 2016 October 2016 was characterized by high power imports and low wind availability. Oct-16 Page 61

62 Power Generation October 2016 October 2016 was characterized by high power imports and low wind availability. Power demand in the second half of October was lower than in the first half. This may be due to erroneous data from TenneT in that period. Oct-16 Page 62

63 The following set of slides presents for each week in 2016 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-pv to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Oct-16 Page 63

64 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 64

65 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 65

66 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 66

67 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 67

68 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 68

69 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 69

70 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 70

71 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 71

72 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 72

73 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 73

74 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 74

75 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 75

76 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 76

77 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 77

78 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 78

79 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 79

80 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 80

81 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 81

82 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 82

83 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 83

84 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 84

85 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 85

86 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 86

87 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 87

88 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 88

89 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 89

90 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 90

91 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 91

92 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 92

93 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 93

94 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 94

95 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 95

96 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 96

97 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 97

98 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 98

99 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 99

100 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 100

101 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 101

102 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 102

103 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 103

104 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 104

105 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 105

106 Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2016 Oct-16 Page 106

107 MISCELLANEOUS Oct-16 Page 107

108 Effective Temperature October 2016 In October 2016, the average daily effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) was only 7.8 o C, slightly lower than in October Oct-16 Page 108

109 Import/export balances of gas and power This curve represents the long term monthly net import/export balances of natural gas and power since January Negative numbers express net exports. Positive numbers net imports. Since 2015, the Groningen gas production has decreased significantly. Oct-16 Page 109

110 Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions g/kwh Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Fuels Power Generation Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Oct-16 Page 110

111 Epilogue This presentation is based on numerous sources on energy demand, supply and production in The Netherlands. Unfortunately, these sources do not cover the entire Dutch energy system, nor do these sources provide the insights needed for this presentation. Thus, various approximations and scaling factors were derived and used. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Sciences in Groningen and various consulted energy experts for there feedback on the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS) and it is believed that the this presentation gives a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system. Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Oct-16 Page 111