Interest in a Community Model for Operational Delta Forecasting

Transcription

1 NOAA s National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Interest in a Community Model for Operational Delta Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge

2 Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts and warnings for the protection of lives and property

3 Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide basic hydrologic forecast information for the nation s environmental and economic well being

4 US NWS Field Offices 9 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 13 RFCs River Forecast Centers 122 WFOs Weather Forecast Offices

5 CNRFC Staffing NWS/CNRFC Hydrologist in Charge Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) Service Coordination Hydrologist (SCH) California DWR/DFM Hydrology Branch Chief 7 Engineers/Forecasters 3 Senior Hydrologists 2 Hydrologists 2 Senior HAS Forecasters 2 HAS Forecasters Information Tech. Officer Administrative Assistant

6 Operational River Forecasting (Hydrology) H A S hydrologic expertise & judgment forecast precip / temp Hydrologist model guidance River Forecast System bulletins graphics Probablistic Information Flood Forecast Guidance data Observing Systems parameters Calibration

7 Operational HAS Function (Meteorology) 10 NWFOs NCEP - WPC Local collaboration as required 3-Day Forecasts Updated every 6 hours Atmospheric Models Local Models Surface Observations Remotely Sensed Data H A S 5-Day Forecasts (6 hour interval ) - Precipitation - Temperature - Snow Level

8 Community Hydrologic Prediction System

9 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Hydrologic Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17 Soil Model (SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models (RES-SNGL) River Routing Models Arithmetic Transforms 6-hr Time Steps Lumped (not distributed) Mountainous basins Subdivided into Upper / Lower Upper / Middle / Lower UPPER ZONE LOWER ZONE PRIMARY TENSION FREE WATER WATER STORAGE STORAGE TENSION WATER STORAGE FREE WATER STORAGE SURFACE RUNOFF INTERFLOW TENSION SUPPLEMENTARY WATER FREE WATER STORAGE STORAGE BASEFLOW DIRECT RUNOFF SUBSURFACE OUTFLOW

10 River Forecast System Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

11 Deterministic Streamflow Prediction Daily RFC Operations Data Ingest Data QC Model Updating HAS Unit Forecasts Mean Areal Time Series Precipitation Temperature CHPS Hydrologic Models Current Conditions Soil Snow water Reservoir Levels Streamflow

12 River Guidance ~275 flood, non-flood, and reservoir locations Updated w/each model run 2x / day winter weekdays 1x / day summer weekdays and weekends 4x / day during flood events (

13 Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Daily RFC Operations Data Ingest Data QC Model Updating Current Conditions Soil Moisture Snowpack Reservoir Levels Streamflow Flexible Period of Interest HAS Unit Forecasts Historical Time Series All Years of Record Met Ensemble Preprocessor Mean Areal Time Series Precipitation Temperature CHPS Hydrologic Models Numerical Weather Model Forecasts Time

14 CNRFC Ensemble Forecasts Updated daily ~200 locations 365 day duration 10 standard graphics Build your own interface Includes 14 days of weather forecasts

15 Sample Ensemble Information

16 CNRFC Customers RFC WFOs Public Warnings Water and Flood Management Agencies, Utilities

17 Current Delta Forecasting 5 locations Sacramento Rio Vista Mallard Island Antioch Venice Island Turning points only Highs and lows Stage Two days into future Issued daily+ No ability to handle breaches

18 Future Delta Forecasting Everywhere! Hourly+ Multi-parameter Stage Flow Temperature Salinity Five days into future Issued daily+ Ability to handle breaches

19 Community Model Concept Research Elevated initial foundation Improved access to data/information Improved access to funding Feedback from planning and operations Community Model Framework Planning Access to best science Informed of model limitations Results more readily accepted Feedback from operations Operations Continuous access to best science Informed by planning requirements Improved cost basis for observations

20 Why CNRFC Operations? 365 day operation 24x7 as needed 50+ years of experience Honest broker Objective results No conflict of interest Already forecasting fresh water inflows Connected to water management agencies Integrating NOAA s weather enterprise High operational reliability Solid connections NOS, NMFS, USACE, USBR, DWR, others

21 Summary The CNRFC is ready to engage in a modernized forecasting service for the Delta The CNRFC is NOT in a position to create the modeling environment that will meet the operational needs of customers The CNRFC is in a position to partner on developing the R2O framework and operating the real time components

22 California-Nevada River Forecast Center Thank You