Pragmatic Policy Options for Copenhagen and Beyond

Transcription

1 Pragmatic Policy Options for Copenhagen and Beyond Elliot Diringer Pew Center on Global Climate Change at GTSP Technical Review Joint Global Change Research Institute May 28, 2009

2 Overview The Negotiating Context An Integrated Multi-Track Climate Architecture Emerging National Policies Modeling Alternative Post-2012 Policy Scenarios

3 The UN Climate Agreements UNFCCC 192 parties (including US) To prevent dangerous human interference Common but differentiated responsibilities Developed country aim : 1990 levels by 2000 Kyoto Protocol 182 parties Binding emission targets for 36 developed countries (average 5% below 1990 levels by ) Market-based architecture

4 Post-2012 Parallel Negotiating Tracks Kyoto Protocol AWG-KP Ad Hoc Working Group/ Kyoto Protocol Negotiation of post-2012 commitments for countries with Kyoto targets (i.e., not United States) Launched in 2005 in Montreal No agreement yet on target range UNFCCC AWG-LCA Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action 2007 Bali Action Plan calls for agreed outcome in 2009 on: Shared vision for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal Developed country mitigation commitments or actions Developing country mitigation actions supported by technology, finance, etc. Adaptation Mitigation and support are to be measurable, reportable, and verifiable

5 Bali Action Plan 1(b) Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change, including, inter alia, consideration of: (i) Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties, while ensuring the comparability of efforts among them, taking into account differences in their national circumstances; (ii) Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;

6 Prospects for Copenhagen Final agreement not likely US unlikely to have enacted cap/trade legislation or, therefore, be ready to commit to a target Big gaps among parties on central issues Best feasible outcome may be an interim agreement on post-2012 architecture: Commitment types for developed/developing countries Set target range for developed countries Launch process to define developing country commitments Mechanisms of support on finance, technology, and adaptation Indicate level of support prepared to deliver Basic terms of MRV (measurement, reporting and verification)

7 An Integrated Multi-Track Architecture Integration Bottom- Up Integrated Multi-Track Flexibility Top- Down 7

8 An Integrated Multi-Track Architecture An effective climate framework requires commitments by all major economies: Multi-track Allow different types of commitments suited to varied national circumstances and strategies Integrated Commitments negotiated and adopted as a package Introduces bottom-up flexibility while retaining the cohesion and reciprocity of a top-down approach

9 Commitment Types Absolute economy-wide (Kyoto-type) targets Policy-based commitments Quantifiable nationally defined policies Examples: intensity goals, renewable energy targets, efficiency standards, forestry policies International sectoral agreements Agreements across governments addressing emissions from particular sector(s) Could take many different forms; be differentiated Could be different country groupings for different sectors Technology, finance, adaptation commitments

10 Emerging National Efforts Developed Countries Emissions trading systems and complementary policies established or emerging in most developed countries Developing Countries Many large developing countries have adopted or are developing national climate strategies with a mix of energy, land use, or other policies contributing to greenhouse gas reduction

11 Developed Countries EU Goals: Reduce emissions 20% below 1990 by 2020 (30% with a global agreement); 60% by 2050 Emissions Trading Scheme: Expanded and strengthened to reduce emissions 21% below 2005 in 2020 in covered sectors Non-ETS sectors (transport, waste, etc.): target of 10% below 2005 in 2020 Renewables target: 20% of EU energy mix by 2020, including a minimum of 10% biofuels in overall fuel consumption Efficiency target: reduced energy consumption by 20% of projected 2020 levels.

12 Developed Countries US Obama Targets: Reduce emissions 14% below 2005 in 2020; another 80% by 2050 Waxman-Markey Bill: Reduce emissions 17% below 2005 levels by 2020; 83% by 2050 Cap-and-trade system to begin in 2012 covering 85% of U.S. emissions Allocation: 85% free allocation initially, transitioning to full auctioning in Auction revenue used for consumer protection, industry and worker transition assistance, technology innovation, international support, and adaptation Supplemental reductions: 10% below 2005 levels by 2020 through sale of 5% of allowances to fund REDD Offsets: 2 billion tons domestic & int l Renewable Portfolio Standard: 20% by 2020

13 Developed Countries Australia Goals: Reduce emissions 5-25% below 2000 by 2020; 60% by 2050; 20% of energy from renewables by 2020 Establishing domestic cap-and-trade system to begin in 2011 Canada To cover around 75% of emissions (initially exclude agriculture) Majority of allowances to be auctioned (revenue to help households and businesses adjust + invest in clean energy options) Recent changes include a more stringent target (25%, up from 15%), a 1-year delay (from 2010 to 2011), a 1-year $10 fixed price period for allowances, a Global Recession Buffer (increased allocations for TEI) Goals: Reduce emissions 20% below 2006 by 2020; 90% of electricity from low-emission sources (hydro, nuclear, clean coal, wind power) by 2020 Calling for a continental cap-and-trade system

14 Developing Countries China National Climate Change Program Comprehensive program adopted in 2007 outlining existing and planned policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation Intensity goals: reduce energy intensity 20% by 2010; 50% by 2020 Renewables target: 16% of primary energy and 20% of electricity by 2020, including specific targets for wind power, biomass and hydropower capacity Auto fuel economy standards: average 37mpg in 2008, avoiding 130 million tons of carbon emissions through 2030

15 Developing Countries India National Action Plan on Climate Change (2008) outlines existing and future policies/programs addressing mitigation and adaptation Brazil Eight missions, including strong focus on efficiency and large-scale solar Goals include: 10% of energy from renewable sources by 2012 Electrify 18,000 rural villages by 2012 with non-conventional sources (biomass, solar, wind, small hydropower). Increase area under forest and tree cover from 23% to 33% National Plan on Climate Change (2008) includes: Efficiency programs to reduce electricity consumption 10% by 2030 Subsidies and other incentives for renewables Goal of reducing annual deforestation 72% by 2017, with international support

16 Developing Countries South Africa Government Vision (2008) GHG emissions to peak by , plateau for up to 10 years, and decline at least 30-40% below current levels Expects to put mandatory measures in place within three years Aims to generate 15% of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 Republic of Korea National Action Plan on Climate (2008) Aims to increase renewable energy to 11% by 2020, and non-fossil energy by building 12 nuclear plants by 2022 Planning to introduce trial voluntary emissions trading at local level Will announce 2020 emissions target later this year

17 Modeling Post-2012 Architectures Objective: visualize and assess alternative multi-track architectures integrating different types of mitigation commitments Economy-wide targets Policy-based commitments National-level sectoral targets/standards Sectoral agreements Sector-specific policies applied across regions Funds for adaptation and technology Scenarios are illustrative not proposals

18 Key Variables Policy types Sectoral coverage (when not economy-wide) Stringency Differentiation among regions Forms of trading (full trading, sectoral trading, policy-based crediting) Evolution of commitments ( graduation ) All transition to fully efficient global cap-andtrade by 2050

19 Assessment Criteria Environmental effectiveness Do they put us on a pathway in 2050 consistent with 450 ppmv CO 2? Economic efficiency How do their costs look relative to an idealized case of full global cap+trade? Fairness Do they achieve a reasonable distribution of costs?

20 For More Information