Leonam dos Santos Guimarães

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1 Leonam dos Santos Guimarães

2

3 FLEET AGING

4 67 NPPS being built in 15 countries : 42 new connections to the grid FUQING-2 First Grid Connection 06 Aug, 2015 First Grid Connection 06 Aug, 2015 ANGRA 3

5 GENERATION CHANGE: II -> III -> III+ -> IV

6 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMERGENT COUTRIES Brazil: kwh per capita Portugal: China: 1.900

7 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Boosting prosperity is the way to care for our planet

8 CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL

9 CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL

10 HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION INTERCONNECTED NATIONAL SYSTEM: CONTINENTAL DIMMENSIONS HYDRO DOMINANCE Manaus Fortaleza Recife Itaipu Brasília Belo Horizonte Salvador Rio de Janeiro São Paulo km Porto Alegre Angra

11 HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION the expansion of a large interconnected power system, with significant predominance of hydro renewable primary source requires an increasing thermal contribution due to: gradual exhaustion of the economic and environmentally viable hydro potential loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower water storage capacity in the reservoirs related to the system load growth.

12 HYDRO POTENTIAL TECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE 150/180 GW from 260 GW (100 GW already used) Hidro

13 EXPANSION POST-2030 Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance) Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs (increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL: Wind Solar match Wind Hydro match Energy storage in reservoirs Saving water and Enhancing hydroelectric load following and self-regulation (long term) capabilities

14 National Energy Plan 2030 EPRI SITTING CRITERIA Geographic Information Systems 1) Northeast MW 2) Southeast MW operation: NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS

15 National Energy Plan 2030

16 National Energy Plan 2030 Plant Parameter Envelope RFIs to suppliers Early Site Permit Report Brazilian Utility Requirements URD/EUR Model Business Model Public-Private Partnership Economic and Financial Feasability Social and Ecomomic Impacts

17 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT INSPIRED BY TVA (EUA)

18 A NEW BUSINESS MODEL Risk sharing

19 BUILDING NEW NUCLEAR THE CHALLENGES AHEAD Public attitudes Government leadership Public opinion at the national level Local level opinion Fukushima Building public support Trust, understanding of risk, and risk governance Community benefit Financing new nuclear Where will the money come from? Barriers to raising finance Alternative approaches Supply chain and skills Potential for bottlenecks and delays Opportunities for Brazilian businesses Skills Technology Selection In operation x construction x design FOAK x NOAK Passive x Active Safety Business Model Market insertion (commercialization) Ownership of nuclear power stations State x Private National x Foreigner

20 NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MITHS Are we also guilty? BE AWARE! Financing barriers shortage of finance, or the cost of it, are significant barriers to new nuclear projects The truth is rather different: finance is not so much an input into a nuclear project as an output. A new answer in SMRs? promoted as a viable solution to some of the problems experienced by large light water reactors unless the regulatory system can be adapted, they are unlikely to become more than a niche product Developing world nuclear growth nuclear in these countries suffers from the same public acceptance and economic problems as elsewhere Environmental credentials the world will start building lots of nuclear power stations to help counter climate change, as it becomes accepted as a green technology Nuclear energy gets left off the agenda because the fear it engenders dominates policy while the positive virtues get ignored there are sufficient alternative ways that nuclear opponents can argue for it being ignored

21 Leonam Guimarães

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