ENERGY FORUM Consumers Perspective on Energy Issues By Philip Tan Representing FMM August 9, 2010 Sheraton Imperial Hotel, KL

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1 ENERGY FORUM Consumers Perspective on Energy Issues By Philip Tan Representing FMM August 9, 2010 Sheraton Imperial Hotel, KL

2 Industry s Concerns Benchmark for energy pricing Efficiencies in power sector Is Electricity tariff COMPETITIVE? Disadvantage to industries to be energy efficient through cogeneration; i.e. combined heat and power CHP) Other Issues Sunday Tariff Rider tariff restricted to Sunday Off peak energy should apply to Sunday Tariff Rider Special Industrial Tariff energy intensity vs energy efficiency 2

3 ENERGY PRICING FMM recognizes that energy pricing should be at market rate. However adjustment to market price must be gradual and pre-announced to give sufficient time for adjustment. Have a transparent and consistent pricing formula for both natural gas and electricity tariffs to allow the industry to estimate future price increases. Market price of indigenous fuel such as NG should be benchmarked against an appropriate alternative fuel. 3

4 Benchmark Against MFO vs. LNG Exports RM/mmBtu Avg: Gas to Industry Avg: Avg: MFO (RM) LNG Export US Industrial NG Price USD/RM= Gas to Pow er 0 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09 June 09 July 09 Aug 09 Sept 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 4

5 Based on the latest three-month average spot price for gas of around US$4.40/mmbtu as quoted by Henry Hub, the power sector is currently enjoying a 25% discount on locally sourced gas 5

6 But we note that the government could be basing its computations on another benchmark, i.e. medium fuel oil (MFO) for legacy reasons. Based on this, we note that the local power players are currently enjoying a larger discount of close to 60% 6 to the average three-month market price of MFO.

7 Medium fuel oil: discount close to 60% Henry Hub: discount only 25% 7

8 Why MFO? We gather that the MFO benchmark has been in place since the 1990s. Back then, MFO prices were used because most of the power plants were running on MFO. Also, looking back at historical prices, MFO and gas prices were generally in sync (Figure 19). But since Jan 09, there has been a clear decoupling of the two benchmarks as MFO prices generally moved in tandem with crude oil prices. CIMB Research Report 27 July

9 LNG Export as Benchmark? M sia s Export to (as of Nov 2009) $/MMBtU Average LNG Prices RM/MMBtU Japan China South Korea Taiwan Malaysia (2009 Average) RM/MMBtU LNG Export Price (FOB) NG Price to Industry Source: Argus Global LNG Jan 2010/ External Trade Statistics Assuming exch rate = USD1/RM3.5

10 Rm/mmBtu Fair Benchmark & Pricing Mechanism FMM s proposal: LNG price ex-bintulu less compression & gasification cost as benchmark - no loss in revenue for Petronas Other available benchmarks NG prices worldwide, coal Address distributors margin Regionally price should be competitive Non-power GMSB Customers Weighted Avg Cost of Gas NG to Singapore LNG Export RM/mmBtu MFO

11 Efficiencies in Power Sector 11

12 Malaysia Thailand Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Singapore Current Malaysian NG price LOWEST but HIGH electricity tariff M sian NG price 1/3 Singapore 1/2 Thailand M sian electricity (High Tension) 90% Singapore 86% Thailand M sian electricity (Low Tension) 78% Singapore 103% Thailand Gas to Power (RM/mmBtu) Electricity HT(sen/kWh) Electricity LT(sen/kWh) Note: As of

13 SAHA s Study Review of Future Tariff Proposal SAHA met with FMM during their study to design a future tariff structure in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah FMM understands that future tariff structure could be based on incentive based regulation as against cost of service regulation. Towards this end the tariff rates associated for the regulated assets for distribution and for transmission would be separately identified. Understand only the regulated assets for transmission and distribution would be considered. Tariffs justification would be made known and subjected to consultation, review and written comments/arguments by all stakeholders including FMM. 13

14 Transparency in Cost and Price FMM recognizes that companies (including utilities and IPPs) need to earn reasonable return for their investment. As utilities' tariffs are not subjected to competition but are of general public interest (including to members of FMM) the costs and prices for various parts of the supply chain be must transparent so that any inefficiencies could be identified and hopefully corrected. Towards transparency FMM believes that the cost and prices for the following should be available and published: a. Non fuel IPPs unit cost and utility margin; b. Power utilities own non fuel generation cost and price per unit, c. Transmission cost and price per unit, d. Distribution cost and price per unit, e. Gas utilities cost and price of transmission. 14

15 Transparency in IPPs Costs FMM believes that each IPP s costs for non-fuel and non fuel, generation amount sold to utilities should be made available to the public. With incentive based regulation, FMM believe that the following monetary values should be treated as follow: a. Deduction of payments for not meeting guarantees not be to the sole benefit of the utilities but to the consumers as well, b. Fuel advantages should shared on a win-win-win arrangement without setback to IPPs when gas was at RM6.40/MMBTU as follow: - Allow offline water washing without imposition of UOR, - Share fuel advantage in proportion 1:1:2 among IPP, TNB and consumers. 15

16 Historical Baggage Still in Place that Discourages Co-generation 16

17 Support for CO-GENERATION Co-generation or Combined Heat and Power ( CHP ) - most effective way with regards to energy efficiency Because we produce electricity and capture waste heat from power generation to steam simultaneously rather than wasting it. Non recovered losses of generation: Gas Turbine: 62% at exhaust Conventional Power Plant : 49.5% at condenser Combined Cycle : 33% at condenser GT/HRSG as Cogeneration : 11% of input Remove impediments to co-generation activities High standby charges barrier to entry (RM25/kW/month) Penalty for exceeding demand No support for buying firm excess supply TNB buys excess electricity at uneconomical price set at lowest avoided cost Co-generation can achieve efficiency greater than 80% 17

18 Co-gen Stand-By Charges: Malaysia vs. Thailand Malaysia For Co-generator ONLY Stand-By Charges Thailand: 10 Baht=RM1.00 Stand-By for Co-generator Stand-By Charges Tariff Firm (RM/kW) Non-firm (RM/kW) Tariff Power Taken (RM/kW No Power Taken (RM/kW E1: MV Ind Gen Below 12 kv E2: MV Industrial to 24 kv E3: HV Industrial kv & above Example: 30 MW standby charge for NO power taken for the month Malaysia: E3 Tariff RM per month STAND-BY Firm 750,000 STAND-BY Non-firm 255,000 Thailand: 69kV & above STAND-BY No power taken 79,200 18

19 Rules for Charging Standby Firm Standby Rates should not be more than 20% of TNB s actual price of capacity charge rate for each Tariff Category. No Non-Firm Standby Rates to be charged for Non-Firm Standby. If electricity is used within any month, the tariff for use is to follow the respective Tariff Category. Top-up consumers to follow the electricity tariff as for normal consumers for each Tariff Category. No additional penalty charge for standby and top-up consumers that take electricity higher than the Average Load Factor of Respective Tariff Category. Equitable measures to be drawn up to protect TNB from gaming by customers and for standby customers not able to maintain at reference plant availability (90%). 19

20 Rules for Charging Standby Appropriate incentive for co-generators able to operate at availability greater than power section average for thermal power plants. Qualifying Factor for allowing co-generation to be set at that of the power plant with the highest efficiency in the grid system prevailing at the time of issuing the license (TNB saves 12% in transmission and distribution losses). Alternatively follow Qualifying Factor of Thailand and USA. Co-generators with surplus firm capacity be paid at 5% discount of capacity rate (capacity rate financial plus fixed O&M) for the most recently signed financeable IPP with TNB in Malaysia (not majority owned by TNB). The energy charge is to be the average avoided cost of variable energy to TNB. Co-generators with only non-firm capacity to be paid only on 20 energy charge which is to be average avoided cost on variable

21 Sunday Tariff Rider When the Sunday Tariff Rider was offered, FMM initially thought that Sunday usage would be considered as off-peak rates. When then, when FMM ask at MITI dialogue with presence of utility, that the Rider be applied to Saturday. FMM was told Saturday demand pattern is similar to weekday. When FMM met with the previous Chairman on the matter, FMM was told otherwise. FMM was supplied the demand patterns in the next couple of slides. Subsequently, on closer examination, FMM realized that only Maximum Demand recorded is not counted under the Sunday Tariff Rider. Peak energy charge still applies. Where is the benefit? 21

22 Saturday & Sunday load consumption similar pattern but Sunday Tariff Rider only for Sunday 22

23 Saturday load consumption NOT same as Weekday 23

24 Special Industrial Tariff (SIT) - benefiting few and limited Only 1% of TNB s industrial customers affected 300 of 28,502 customers (TNB Annual Report 2009) RM390 mill of lower tariff 3.54% of RM11,028.6 mill of electricity sales to industrial customers 1.39% of RM28,083.8 mill in total electricity sales 24

25 PRESS RELEASE BY FMM on March 3, 2010 FMM recognizes that energy pricing should be at market rate. However, as with all changes to policies that have an impact on operating costs, FMM had requested the Government to ensure that the move to market price should: Be gradual and pre-announced to give sufficient time for adjustment; Have a transparent and consistent pricing formula for both natural gas and electricity tariffs to allow the industry to estimate future price increases; 25

26 Continued Be fair: i.e. to benchmark against an appropriate alternative fuel and to ensure that supply chain inefficiencies are not passed through to users. FMM s view is that an appropriate benchmark should be the free-on-board price of liquefied natural gas that Malaysia itself exports to other countries from Bintulu, which is lower than the current domestic market price after deducting transportation and gasification/degasification costs! FMM is also strongly of the view that the power sector should ONLY be allowed to pass through increase in fuel prices to consumers not their other operating inefficiencies. 26

27 Continued Practice domestic market obligation (DMO): i.e. to ensure sufficient supply of the country s natural fuel resources for use by industries in Malaysia to increase value-add and higher economic returns. In this respect, FMM has also been calling on the Government to review the export quantum to address the shortfall of fuel resources in Peninsula Malaysia as well as to conserve the national stockpile. 27

28 Recommendations Improve efficient use of natural resources Establish effective subsidy transition programme Pre-announced review of prices, consistent & transparent formula Reference to a fair benchmark LNG price ex-bintulu net back to price of natural gas cost supplied to LNG plant Maintain minimum of WACC for regulated assets because: NG is national resource competitive advantage Spin-off and multiplier effects from industry Power sector provides basic energy electricity Priority of supply - domestic market obligation Support co-gen among users of NG, reward efficient users Reform energy sector market liberalization Address LEAKAGES utilities efficiency, distributors margins 28

29 Thank You

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