European Climate Change and. Energy Issues. Agenda. 3. European Climate Policy in a Global Context: International Transfers

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1 European Climate Change and Energy Issues Dirk Rübbelke Agenda 1. Climate Effects on the European Power Sector 2. Environmental Regulations and Innovation in Renewable Energy Technologies 3. European Climate Policy in a Global Context: International Transfers

2 European heatwave raises power plant strain 2010 July 8 (Reuters) - Weather forecasters have issued extremely hot weather warnings for seven western European countries this week, with the heatwave potentially straining electricity supplies as air conditioning use soars. France imports UK electricity as plants shut 2009 July 3 (The Times) - France is being forced to import electricity from Britain to cope with a summer heatwave that has helped to put a third of its nuclear power stations out of action. Italy, Blackout June 26th, 2003 This blackout was due to extreme raises in electricity demand combined with a reduction of the production capacity of large-scale power plants because of scarce water resources and thus insufficient water capacity for cooling heated water from large-scale power plants. (Turmes, C., Why Europe will face more US-style blackouts, EU-Background paper)

3 Red: Nuclear power plants with cooling problems in recent years. Source: Rübbelke, D. and Vögele, S. (2011), Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector. Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 14, No. 1, Follow-up Effects of GHG Emissions Finally Hitting the Hydro and Nuclear Power Sectors anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions climate change droughts and heat waves Currently nuclear power has a share of ~ 28% in the EU s electricity supply, while the share of hydro power is ~ 12% (EUROSTAT, 2010). water supply power generation; our focus: hydro and nuclear critical infrastructures

4 Electricity Generation in Europe 7 Changes in Generation Source: Rübbelke and Vögele (2011), Distributional Consequences of Climate Change Impacts on the Power Sector: Who Gains and Who Loses? CEPS Working Document, No. 349, Brussels. 8

5 Change in Prices 9 Impacts of Climate Change on Suppliers Profits 10

6 Windfall Profits & Adaptation The low-carbon options hydro and nuclear power are vulnerable to climate change. Autonomous adaptation to local disturbances via the European electricity markets is an option. Yet, consumers of electricity will suffer from higher electricity prices, while some suppliers may rise their profits, just due to the price increase windfall profits Taxing windfall profits might serve fairness considerations (yet, changes in incentive structures have to be taken into account). Public policy intervention concerning adaptation could target both the affected power sector and the upstream water supply sector (in order to prevent large-scale blackouts and to mitigate windfall profits). 11 Agenda 1. Climate Effects on the European Power Sector 2. Environmental Regulations and Innovation in Renewable Energy Technologies 3. European Climate Policy in a Global Context: International Transfers

7 2. Environmental Regulations and Innovation in Renewable Energy Technologies The European Climate & Energy Package (CEP) became law in 2009 and constitutes a binding legislation to implement the targets: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% (30%) of 1990 levels by 2020, to raise the share of energy consumption provided by renewable resources to 20% by 2020, 20% reduction of primary energy use (projected 2020 levels) by improving energy efficiency. In order to keep climate change below 2ºC, the European Council reconfirmed in February 2011 the EU objective of reducing GHG emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to ( 13 Innovative Technologies Source: AFP First commercial solar power plant using molten salt: went on line in Spain in October 2011 and produces power even up to 15 h without sunshine. 14

8 Patent Counts as Proxy for Induced Technological Progress In the long run, the effect of public policies on technological change may be among the most important determinants of success in environmental protection. (Hahn and Kammen, AER, 1992) Let us consider patent applications that were filed with the international patent classification symbol F03D for wind motors from the worldwide patent database of the European Patent Office, PATSTAT. 15 Patent Applications per Million of Inhabitants in Germany, Sweden and the UK 16

9 Summary Statistics for Wind Motor Patent Applications between 1980 and Hypotheses (Rübbelke and Weiss (2011), FEEM Working Paper, No , Milan) Hypothesis 1: Energy market liberalization has a positive effect on patenting activities for wind turbines. found supportive evidence Hypothesis 2: Price-based policy instruments (like FITs) have a positive effect on patenting activities, if energy markets are open for competition. Non-price-based policy instruments (like grants) have always a positive effect on patenting activities for wind turbines. found supportive evidence 18

10 Effects on Patenting Behaviour Apart from market liberalization, we control for a number of other determinants: Determinant energy prices environmental tax revenues Effect positive effect positive and highly significant effect ratification of the Kyoto Protocol positive effect nuclear power generation negative and highly significant effect 19 Agenda 1. Climate Effects on the European Power Sector 2. Environmental Regulations and Innovation in Renewable Energy Technologies 3. European Climate Policy in a Global Context: International Transfers

11 3. European Climate Policy in a Global Context: International Transfers At the 16 th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Cancun in 2010, it was pledged to mobilize $100 billion in international climate financing annually by These funds are dedicated to mitigation and adaptation projects in developing countries (DCs). Since it was also agreed that adaptation must be addressed with the same priority as mitigation, probably a large share of the pledge will be assigned to adaptation support. A significant share of new multilateral funding for adaptation is planned to flow through the Green Climate Fund, whose creation was also agreed upon in Cancun Reasons for International Transfers in Climate Policy From a public economic policy perspective largely two kinds of tasks justify governmental intervention (Musgrave 1959, 2008): 1)attaining a desired distribution of welfare, and 2)correcting for market imperfections, i.e. improving the allocation. Deduced justifications for public international transfers in climate policy: a)granting development assistance (distribution), b)serving moral obligations, e.g. due to historical responsibilities (distribution), c)pareto-improvement of global public good provision and of the generation of positive international externalities (allocation), d)strategic confidence-building by raising fairness (indirectly: allocation) 22

12 3.2 Distributional Aspects a) Granting Development Assistance International support for mitigation and adaptation in DCs can be interpreted as forms of development aid. Mitigation: A strong argument for trying seriously to slow climate change is that developing countries are vulnerable and we care (Schelling 1992, AER). Any action combating global warming will be, intended or not, a foreign aid program (Schelling 1997, Foreign Affairs). Adaptation: All countries are vulnerable to climate change [ ] but the poorest countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable, having the least means to adapt (World Bank 2006). But: Claim for additionality of climate policy transfers towards DCs! 23 b) Serving Moral Obligations The rich countries did not make the poor countries poor, but they are largely responsible for the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Barrett 2007). ( There is a difference between the motivations to provide development aid and climate-related transfers.) There is no consensus about equity & justice criteria in climate policy (Lange et al. 2010, EER), e.g. about the question to which extent industrialized countries (ICs) should support DCs in adaptation or to which extent they should contribute to global mitigation efforts. Countries perception of fairness w.r.t. different international policy/transfer schemes varies. 24

13 3.3 Allocation Aspects c) Pareto-improvement of International Public Good Provision Focus on existing UNFCCC and Kyoto transfer schemes, where the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) is somehow involved: GEF Trust Fund (TF), Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) and Adaptation Fund (AF). 25 Mitigation Support The GEF releases funds from the TF with global-benefit orientation. Mitigation is a global public good. Mitigation is raised in DCs via the TF which tends to be both cost-effective and Paretoimproving: cost-effective due to low abatement cost in DCs, Pareto-improving due to the induced augmentation of global mitigation efforts. 26

14 Adaptation Support TF includes the Strategic Priority Piloting an Operational Approach to Adaptation (SPA) activities must generate primarily global environmental benefits LDCF and SCCF not primarily with global benefit orientation UNFCCC AF GEF provides only secretary services managed & supervised a special AF Board developing countries hold overall majority of seats in the Board Kyoto framework 27 No Pareto-Improvement Since the benefits of adaptation are local, rich countries gain nothing directly by assisting poor countries to adapt (Barrett 2008). However, more indirect transnational, or even global, follow-up effects may arise (e.g. early warning systems may allow for better preparation protecting against extreme events follow-up effects: e.g., reduction of the risk of people fleeing the affected region & of international conflicts). Yet, if we disregard indirect effects, then international adaptation support does not tend to be Pareto-improving. 28

15 3.4 Strategic Role of Adaptation Support By raising (the perception of) fairness, international adaptation support may exert a positive influence on DCs willingness to participate in international negotiations and mitigation efforts could induce an improved allocation. Two different forms of fairness perception can be distinguished: Intention-driven Fairness Perception i.e. fairness perception based on observations in the course of current international environmental negotiations/policy: perception depends on conjectures about the other negotiating agents intentions. Agents may prefer to sacrifice some of their material well-being for fairness reasons. A player tends to pursue strategies benefiting (harming) the other player, if he believes that the opponent agent is playing in a kind (mean) way [e.g. in the course of international climate negotiations]. (Rabin 1993, AER) 30

16 3.4.2 Consequence-driven Fairness Perception i.e. fairness perception based on past experiences: perception depends on consequences of other agents former actions Fair Adaptation Support and its Influence on Negotiations Adaptation support reduces the harm of IC s past emissions and reduces perceived consequence-driven unfairness in the developing world raises the likeliness of successful negotiations on climate change. (Rübbelke, Ecological Economics, 2011) The way in which adaptation support is organized (e.g., strong involvement of DCs in the governance of transfer schemes) tends to affect (improve) intention-driven fairness positive influence on the prospects of success of negotiations. (Pittel and Rübbelke, 2011, BC3 Working Paper, No , Bilbao) International adaptation support might be regarded as a tool to raise perceived fairness and to improve the chances for successful international negotiations on climate change. 32

17 3.4.4 Fairness in International Adaptation Support adaptation support based on global benefit orientation like in the case of the SPA, may not be considered by DCs as consequence-driven fairness-enhancing: ICs benefit in the same way as DCs, especially the support of adaptation projects in DCs which yield mainly local/regional benefits tends to best serve a reduction of perceived historical unfairness, additionality of funds (additional to ODA) also tends to raise fairness perception in DCs, intention-driven fairness-perception could be raised by enhancing participation of DCs in the transfer schemes: like in the case of the AF where DCs hold the overall majority of seats in the AF Board, in contrast, the GEF-lead management of funds is considered with scepticism in DCs, because the GEF s governance is regarded as dominated by ICs (e.g., Najam et al. 2003), if strategic fairness enhancement is regarded as an important task, then the new Green Climate Fund could become a vehicle for pursuing this task. 33

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