Structural Nickel Surplus to Structural Market Deficit Future Supply Challenges

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1 Mark Selby, Royal Nickel Corporation Structural Nickel Surplus to Structural Market Deficit Future Supply Challenges

2 Disclaimer Cautionary Statements Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains "forward-looking information" including without limitation statements relating to mineral reserve estimates, mineral resource estimates, realization of mineral reserve and resource estimates, capital and operating cost estimates, project and life of mine estimates, construction of the mine and related infrastructure, the timing and amount of future production, costs of production, success of mining operations, ability to obtain permitting by the time targeted, size and ranking of project upon achieving production, economic return estimates and potential upside and alternatives. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of RNC to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. The feasibility study results are estimates only and are based on a number of assumptions, any of which, if incorrect, could materially change the projected outcome. Even with the completion of the feasibility study, there are no assurances that Dumont will be placed into production. Factors that could affect the outcome include, among others: the actual results of development activities; project delays; inability to raise the funds necessary to complete development; general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties; future prices of metals; availability of alternative nickel sources or substitutes; actual nickel recovery; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; accidents, labour disputes and other risks of the mining industry; political instability, terrorism, insurrection or war; delays in obtaining governmental approvals, necessary permitting or in the completion of development or construction activities. The MOU with Tsingshan is non-binding and there is therefore no assurance that the strategic alliance with Tsingshan will result in any transaction or venture with Tsingshan. For a more detailed discussion of such risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, refer to RNC's filings with Canadian securities regulators available on SEDAR at Although RNC has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation and RNC disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable securities laws NI Compliance The technical information pertaining to the Dumont project feasibility study in this presentation is based on the news release titled Royal Nickel Confirms Economic and Technical Feasibility of Dumont Project Bankable Feasibility Study Delivers Over $1 Billion NPV 8% published on June 17, 2013 that describes the results of the Dumont project feasibility study and was prepared in accordance with Canadian regulatory requirements by, or under the supervision of, Paul Staples, P. Eng. of Ausenco Limited, Sébastien Bernier, P.Geo. of SRK Consulting (Canada) Inc. and David A. Warren, Eng. of Snowden Mining Industry Consultants, all of whom are independent Qualified Persons as set out in National Instrument Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI "). The Mineral Resource estimate set out in this presentation was classified according to the CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (November 2010) by Sébastien Bernier, P. Geo (OGQ#1034, APGO#1847), Principal Consultant Resource Geology at SRK. The Mineral Reserve estimate set out in this presentation was classified according to the CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (November 2010) by David A. Warren (OIQ ), Principal Consultant Mining at Snowden. All other technical information in this presentation has been prepared by or under the supervision of Alger St-Jean, P. Geo., Vice President, Exploration of RNC and Johnna Muinonen P. Eng., Vice President, Operations of RNC, each a Qualified Person as defined in NI The full Dumont feasibility study, prepared as an NI compliant technical report, will be filed under RNC s profile on SEDAR at within 45 days. All currency references in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated. TSX: RNX 1

3 Overview Indonesia remains THE key to the nickel market in the short-term - ore exports to China are one of the most important relationships in all of mining Nickel mine supply now equivalent of 2 Saudi Arabias in the oil market Could we see an ONEC in the nickel market with Indonesia and the Philippines? Nickel is bottoming as cost curve and some restrictions on Indonesian supply to provide support 30-40% of cost curve losing money at current prices Indonesian law comes into effect in January 2014 some restrictions likely to be implemented In prior cycles, nickel market has always turned sharply. Don t wait until inventories turn nickel prices have always turned before inventories Despite current market surplus, nickel market likely to face large deficits in 2 nd half of this decade. Only doubling NPI supply could balance it (difficult with Indonesia ore constraints, China cost pressures) Nickel prices, as in , will likely have to rise to force demand in line with available supply China is going to need 1+ MILLION tonnes more nickel annually during this decade and ROW will also need more (remember 1+ million tonnes is equal to ALL of global supply in 1990! ) Despite concerns of slowdown, Chinese nickel demand has grown by 15% per year over last 3 years,driving global nickel demand higher (increased 300 series share AND higher stainless production) Supply response will be structurally insufficient as current projects under construction only provide half this requirement (at best, as many are struggling) and project cupboard is largely empty 2

4 China & Indonesia An Important Relationship China NOT Self-Sufficient in Nickel Nickel is one of the metals in which China is least self-sufficient in domestic production. Chinese Self-Sufficiency Mine Supply as a % of Demand (2012) 54% 57% 67% 85% <5% 15% 18% 29% Platinum Palladium Nickel Copper Iron Ore (62% Fe-eq) Lead Aluminium (Bauxite) Tin Zinc Source: USGS, Wood Mackenzie Ltd., Macquarie Research, RNC Analysis 3

5 China & Indonesia An Important Relationship China Becoming Less Self-Sufficient In fact, Chinese self-sufficiency in nickel has declined despite a decade of high nickel prices 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Chinese Self-Sufficiency Mine Supply as a % of Nickel Demand Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd., RNC Analysis 4

6 China & Indonesia An Important Relationship China Unable to Ramp-up Domestic Nickel Supply as China has been unable to significantly ramp-up domestic nickel supply, particularly compared to other metals. Increase in Chinese Mine Production ( ) 465% 380% 300% 159% 207% 63% Nickel Copper Zinc Lead Bauxite Iron Ore Source: USGS 5

7 Indonesia Has Filled Supply Gap Globally by Allowing Export of High-Grade Ore In just 5 years, Indonesia s share of global nickel supply has nearly tripled with most of the increase shipped as unprocessed ore to China. 30% 25% Indonesian Mine Supply as a % of Global Nickel Supply 20% 15% 10% 5% F Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd., RNC Analysis 6

8 China & Indonesia - An Important Relationship China Highly Dependent on Indonesia In fact, China is more dependent on Indonesia for nickel supply than it is any other single country (with exception of PGMs) 90+% % of Chinese Demand from Largest Source Country Selected Metals % 35% 23% Platinum (South Africa) Nickel (Indonesia) Iron Ore (Australia) Copper (Chile) Source: USGS, Wood Mackenzie Ltd., RNC Analysis 7

9 China & Indonesia - An Important Relationship China Highly Dependent on Indonesia but Indonesia realizes a much smaller fraction of the product value than the other countries (who ship a much greater proportion as higher valued added product). ~100% Export Value as % of Metal Value Selected Source Country /Metals to China Selected Metals % 14% 29% PGM (South Africa) Nickel (Indonesia) Iron Ore (Australia) Copper (Chile) Source: GTIS, USGS, Metalprices.com, RNC Analysis 8

10 Current Indonesian Policy of Unrestricted Exports Contributed to Large Market Surpluses Current Indonesian policy of unrestricted nickel exports significantly limits the economic benefits for Indonesia while encouraging investment in China. There is significant opportunity to improve this situation! Profit and taxes payable paid by PT Antam and PT Vale Indonesia and other local producers will be lower if nickel and nickel ore prices are lower Laterite deposits can be more easily high-graded than many other mineral deposits. As a result, sufficient high-grading can wipe out the potential of ever developing the deposit as a NPI/FeNi operation. Each tonne of higher grade ore exported is one less tonne to justify investment in Indonesia As there is no large-scale alternative to high-grade Indonesian saprolite supply, there should be significant opportunity to impose quotas / add duties / raise ore prices to generate more revenue in Indonesia (although won t see impact until ore stockpiles from earlier overshipments used up) Indonesian ore exports should be priced, at a minimum, to include freight capture difference in freight from next large scale alternative could easily add up to $20-$80 per tonne! (Australia does NOT give China a discount just because it s closer to China than Brazil!) Nickel supply, other than NPI, is relatively inelastic and will not respond immediately to higher prices 9

11 Overview Indonesia remains THE key to the nickel market in the short-term - ore exports to China are one of the most important relationships in all of mining Nickel mine supply now equivalent of 2 Saudi Arabias in the oil market Could we see an ONEC in the nickel market with Indonesia and the Philippines? Nickel is bottoming as cost curve and some restrictions on Indonesian supply to provide support 30-40% of cost curve losing money at current prices Indonesian law comes into effect in January 2014 some restrictions likely to be implemented In prior cycles, nickel market has always turned sharply. Don t wait until inventories turn nickel prices have always turned before inventories Despite current market surplus, nickel market likely to face large deficits in 2 nd half of this decade. Only doubling NPI supply could balance it (difficult with Indonesia ore constraints, China cost pressures) Nickel prices, as in , will likely have to rise to force demand in line with available supply China is going to need 1+ MILLION tonnes more nickel annually during this decade and ROW will also need more (remember 1+ million tonnes is equal to ALL of global supply in 1990! ) Despite concerns of slowdown, Chinese nickel demand has grown by 15% per year over last 3 years,driving global nickel demand higher (increased 300 series share AND higher stainless production) Supply response will be structurally insufficient as current projects under construction only provide half this requirement (at best, as many are struggling) and project cupboard is largely empty 10

12 Nickel Cost Curve to Provide Support Nickel cost curve poised to provide support as ~30-40% of cost curve is losing money on a C1 cash cost basis at current price levels of $13,200-$15,400/t ($6-$7/lb) - producers waiting for Indonesia clarity before making final decisions At ~$15,400/t ($7/lb) At ~$13,200/t ($6/lb) Supply Response A number of higher cost FeNi producers have closed Sustained prices at current levels will result in additional production cutbacks Also, don t forget that scrap supply is also very price sensitive, particularly with pricing at 70-75% 11

13 January 2014 Indonesia Ban Deadline Should Lead to Some Restrictions on Ore Exports Initial announcement of restrictions led to cuts in ore exports; implementation of January 2014 ban should lead to some restrictions. Declines in ore prices towards cost of ore production has allowed NPI producers to reduce costs, but led to lower exports during most of Chinese Nickel Ore Imports Indonesia Jan 2006 Sep 2013 (Mt) Restrictions announced Restrictions enforced Restrictions temporarily struck down Estimated Ore Demand Source: GTIS, RNC Analysis 12

14 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Close to the Bottom? Over the last 30 years, 7 troughs have occurred notice a pattern? Will Q be the trough? Nickel Market Price Cycles Troughs Q Q (4 trading days after Q4) Q (1 trading day before Q4) Q Q Q Q Q4 2013? Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis 13

15 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis A trough in Q4 of 2013 is in line with past trends Nickel Market Price Cycle Peak to Trough (months) Mar 1980 to Nov 1982 Apr 1985 to Jan 1987 Mar 1988 to Sep 1993 Jan 1995 to Oct 1998 Mar 2000 to Oct 2001 Jan 2004 to Nov 2005 May 2007 to Dec 2008 Feb 2011 to Q4 2013? ? 66 Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis

16 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Consistent Rebounds Time from trough to peak is relatively consistent; either months or months (with 1 exception) implying a 1 st half 2014 or 2015 nickel price peak from an August 2012 trough Nickel Market Price Cycle Trough-> Peak (months) Nov 1982 to April Jan 1987 to Mar 1988 Sep 1993 to Jan 1995 Oct 1998 to Mar Oct 2001 to Jan Nov 2005 to May Dec 2008 to Feb 2011 Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis

17 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Rapid Demand Growth China has had no discernible difference on the rapid growth in nickel demand after a price trough (as demand is driven by stainless restocking cycle) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 31% 1982 to %* 1986 to 1988 World Nickel Consumption Growth (2 years after price trough) 26% 1993 to % 11% 1%* 1998 to to to 2007 * Denotes those time periods where demand growth limited by supply shortages 16% 2008 to 2011 Note: , are Western World only Source: CRU, Inco Limited December 2002 Quarterly Presentation 16

18 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Explosive Price Moves Nickel price moves have always been explosive even without China. Again, why would it be different this cycle? Remember that a % price increase from a $13,000 trough is $30-$50,000!! 700% Nickel Price Increase (Trough to Peak) 600% 500% 400% 300% 595% 200% 100% 0% Trough Peak 84% Q Q Q Q % 184% Q Q Q Q % Q Q % Q Q % Q Q Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis 17

19 Nickel Price Cycle Analysis Prices Have Moved in Advance of Inventories There has been a wide range of time from when prices trough to the point when inventories begin declining don t wait until you see inventories decline! Sep-93 Nickel Market Cycles (since 1990) Time from Price Trough to Inventory Peak (months) 14 Oct-98 4 Oct-01 7 Nov-05 3 Dec Source: MetalPrices.com, RNC analysis

20 Overview Indonesia remains THE key to the nickel market in the short-term - ore exports to China are one of the most important relationships in all of mining Nickel mine supply now equivalent of 2 Saudi Arabias in the oil market Could we see an ONEC in the nickel market with Indonesia and the Philippines? Nickel is bottoming as cost curve and some restrictions on Indonesian supply to provide support 30-40% of cost curve losing money at current prices Indonesian law comes into effect in January 2014 some restrictions likely to be implemented In prior cycles, nickel market has always turned sharply. Don t wait until inventories turn nickel prices have always turned before inventories Despite current market surplus, nickel market likely to face large deficits in 2 nd half of this decade. Only doubling NPI supply could balance it (difficult with Indonesia ore constraints, China cost pressures) Nickel prices, as in , will likely have to rise to force demand in line with available supply China is going to need 1+ MILLION tonnes more nickel annually during this decade and ROW will also need more (remember 1+ million tonnes is equal to ALL of global supply in 1990! ) Despite concerns of slowdown, Chinese nickel demand has grown by 15% per year over last 3 years,driving global nickel demand higher (increased 300 series share AND higher stainless production) Supply response will be structurally insufficient as current projects under construction only provide half this requirement (at best, as many are struggling) and project cupboard is largely empty 19

21 RNC Forecast Nickel Demand - Evolution of Chinese Nickel Demand As an economy industrializes, demand moves from more basic materials like carbon steel into stainless steels and ultimately into specialty alloys that require a lot of nickel and will drive non-stainless nickel consumption in China Carbon Steel Stainless Steel Nickel 2010 Kg/capita consumption 2010 Kg/capita consumption 2010 Kg/capita consumption China China China Source: World Steel Association, ICSG, World Stainless Steel Statistics, Brook Hunt A Wood Mackenzie Company, RNC Analysis 20

22 RNC Forecast Chinese Nickel Demand - 1+ Million Tonnes More Despite huge growth in demand, Chinese per capita consumption is still less than half of that of industrial economies such as Western Europe and Japan Nickel Consumption per Capita 2010 (kg/capita) Germany Japan China At Japanese and German per capita consumption levels, Chinese nickel demand would increase by at least over 1 million tonnes annually by 2020 Source: CRU, RNC Analysis 21

23 RNC Forecast Chinese Nickel Demand China s nickel demand expected to grow by 1Mtpa by 2020 given 15% growth from , nickel demand would only have to grow by ~9% to achieve this target. Chinese Nickel Demand % CAGR F 15% CAGR F-2020F 8% CAGR 2013F-2016F 1,604 10% CAGR 1,486 1,274 1,375 1, ,072 1 Mtpa is EQUAL to ALL Global Nickel Supply in 1990 Source: Wood Mackenzie, CRU, RNC Analysis TSX: RNX 22

24 RNC Forecast Rest of World (ROW) Demand ROW demand is forecast to grow at 0.5% annually as demand growth in industrializing economies such as India and Brazil will be offset by demand substitution in non-stainless applications from ROW to China Other South Korea Taiwan Japan 1,067 1, Global Nickel Demand ex-china F (Kt) ,002 Western Europe U.S. // // F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: Wood Mackenzie, CRU, RNC Analysis 23

25 New Nickel Supply Fundamental Issue: An Empty Project Cupboard The fundamental issue facing the nickel industry by is an empty project cupboard At the beginning of the last decade prior to the significant run-up in nickel prices, the project cupboard was very full with many projects known for decades Today s picture is very, very different, setting the stage for an exciting nickel cycle Laterite (ferronickel) Laterite (HPAL) Sulphide Project Cupboard 2001 (20+kt) TOTAL: 500+ kt Barro Alto Koniambo Onca Puma Tagaung Taung Ambatovy Goro Ramu Ravensthorpe Weda Bay Talvivaara* Kabanga Voisey s Bay Project Cupboard 2013 (20+kt) TOTAL: 150+kt Weda Bay Dumont Enterprise Kabanga Nova-Bollinger *bioheapleaching process Laterite (leach) Sulphide 24

26 Nickel Supply Little Project Development for 35+ Years Today s empty cupboard is a result of inertia from 35 years of relatively little project development after nickel boom in late 1960s (which discovered or advanced the development of many of the projects sitting in cupboard in 2001) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.3% 5.2% Global Nickel Supply Growth Traditional vs. Alternative (% CAGR) Japan FeNi < 2% growth for 35 years! FSU Collapse Stainless Demand Destruction 1.7% NPI 2.8% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% Source: Brook Hunt A Wood Mackenzie Company, Macquarie, RNC Analysis saw a burst of new projects driven by inability of existing operations to meet global demand saw significant project rationalization Collapse of former Soviet Union demand (20% of world total) provided supply during 1990s Ni pig iron and demand destruction in closed gap caused by lack of new supply from weak project pipeline development 25

27 Nickel Supply Projects A Tidal Wave that was more like a Little Ripple 2013 marks a milestone as Koniambo and Taganito, the last large projects of the tidal wave of more than 500kt of new supply that began at the end of last nickel boom, enter production Despite almost 400kt of capacity already built, production rates in 2013 remain at only a fraction of name plate capacity 26

28 RNC Forecast Nickel Supply Tidal Wave Projects New supply growth from the tidal wave of new projects is still <40% of capacity and RNC expects that it will only reach 60%+ by Global Nickel Demand Growth Vs. Potential Supply ,000+ Projected Nickel Demand Growth Nickel Supply In Construction Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd., RNC Analysis TSX: RNX Nickel Supply Tidal Wave Ramping Up or In Construction (Kt) Project Annual Capacity 2012 VNC (Goro) 60 4 Ambatovy 60 0 Koniambo 60 0 Onca Puma 55 6 Talvivaara Barro Alto Ravensthorpe Ramu 33 5 Taganito 30 0 Santa Rita Eagle 17 0 Niquelandia 10 0 Kevitsa 10 4 WoodMac 2013F RNC Forecast Total

29 RNC Forecast Nickel Supply New Large Projects Many of the new large scale projects will struggle to be financed and be put into production by 2020 Nickel Supply Growth: New Projects (Kt) Project Annual Capacity Weda Bay 35 Kabanga 20 Enterprise 40 Nova-Bollinger 28 RNC Forecast Dumont (1 st Phase) 33 1 Total Source: Company reports, RNC Analysis 1. Average production over phase 1 of mine life 28

30 RNC Forecast New Nickel Supply The source of future nickel supply growth is NOT clear HPAL? Large capex overruns (projects $5+ billion), numerous delays and start-up issues Operating costs also much higher than anticipated FeNi? Best projects already being developed No new large scale high-grade (2%+) discoveries for over 30 years Sulphides? Largely empty project pipeline Enterprise, Nova-Bollinger, Dumont Future growth likely to come from large scale, lower grade deposits NPI? Largely dependent on availability of higher grade Indonesian ore No NEW technology China now using 30+ year old RKEF technology + hot charging Combination of lower grade ore and higher input costs will drive costs higher 29

31 New Nickel Supply NPI? Significant Challenges to Provide More Nickel at Similar Prices Like Japan in the 1960s, Chinese NPI output will ultimately be limited due to lower ore grades, stronger currency, and higher energy and input costs even before taking into account the impact of Indonesian announcements on restrictions on ore supply NPI is not new, it is effectively the same process used in Japan in the 1960s. 1 st time was France in 1880s 1920s Even by 1960s, ore grades in New Caledonia were falling. Minimum ore grade imported into Japan in 1963 was 3%. By 1970, it was down to 2.5% and is trending to 2% today By 1970, ore imports into Japan had leveled off as lower ore grades, higher energy costs, and rising input costs reduced its competitiveness. By 2010, ore imports were still at 1970 levels of approximately 4.5 Mt Source: USGS, Brook Hunt A Wood Mackenzie Company, RNC Analysis 30

32 New Nickel Supply NPI? The Next Wave RNC Signs Strategic Alliance with Tsingshan RNC has leveraged its nickel industry expertise to support the leading Chinese NPI / stainless producer to be the first to use sulphide concentrate directly in a stainless steel process MOU signed in March 2013: RNC continues to share its downstream processing expertise RNC will assist Tsingshan to find sulphide concentrate feed to support Tsinghsan s planned investment in plant & equipment Tsingshan will make offtake and partnership proposals once RNC has completed its feasibility study to Tsingshan s satisfaction First time that nickel sulphide concentrate would be directly used to produce stainless steel (utilizing similar process announced by RNC on October 3, 2011) Tsingshan plant is also expected to be capable of handling nickel sulphide concentrate anticipated to be produced from Dumont Key Benefits for RNC Strategic alliance with one of the leading Chinese stainless steel producers and innovators in integrated NPI/stainless production Opens up downstream potential from small set of nickel smelters/refiners to much broader set of NPI producers Simpler downstream process, effective elimination of refining step, and opportunity for greater competition provides potential for lower TC+RC costs / higher realizations Potential offtake and project partner 31

33 RNC Forecast - Supply / Demand Balance Massive deficits will emerge by 2 nd half of the decade as an empty project pipeline fails to deliver supply only an unlikely doubling of NPI production could balance the market. As a result, like , nickel prices will once again have to rise to force demand in line with available supply. 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , , * Strike recovery Source: Wood Mackenzie Ltd,, RNC Analysis Nickel Supply / Demand Forecast (Kt) * 474 Demand New NPI / Price Driven Demand Destruction Existing NPI New Projects Tidal Wave Existing Supply 32

34 Overview Indonesia remains THE key to the nickel market in the short-term - ore exports to China are one of the most important relationships in all of mining Nickel mine supply now equivalent of 2 Saudi Arabias in the oil market Could we see an ONEC in the nickel market with Indonesia and the Philippines? Nickel is bottoming as cost curve and some restrictions on Indonesian supply to provide support 30-40% of cost curve losing money at current prices Indonesian law comes into effect in January 2014 some restrictions likely to be implemented In prior cycles, nickel market has always turned sharply. Don t wait until inventories turn nickel prices have always turned before inventories Despite current market surplus, nickel market likely to face large deficits in 2 nd half of this decade. Only doubling NPI supply could balance it (difficult with Indonesia ore constraints, China cost pressures) Nickel prices, as in , will likely have to rise to force demand in line with available supply China is going to need 1+ MILLION tonnes more nickel annually during this decade and ROW will also need more (remember 1+ million tonnes is equal to ALL of global supply in 1990! ) Despite concerns of slowdown, Chinese nickel demand has grown by 15% per year over last 3 years,driving global nickel demand higher (increased 300 series share AND higher stainless production) Supply response will be structurally insufficient as current projects under construction only provide half this requirement (at best, as many are struggling) and project cupboard is largely empty 33

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