Scientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways

Transcription

1 Scientific updates on current emissions and sinks of greenhouse gases and implications for future emissions pathways Dr Richard A. Houghton, Woods Hole Research Center with contributions from the Global Carbon Project, C. Le Quéré, G. Marland, J. Hackler, T. Boden, J. Canadell, P. Friedlingstein, T. Conway, M. Raupach, P. Ciais and others. slides available on

2 relative contribution of different greenhouse gases Radiative forcing since 1750 (W/m 2 ) CO 2 (64%) CH 4 (18%) Other gases The contribution of CO 2 to total anthropogenic greenhouse gases is growing N 2 O (6%) Time (y) NOAA-ESRL

3 Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel burning

4 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) % per year % per year 2009: Emissions: 8.4 PgC (30.5 Gt CO 2 ) Growth rate: -1.3% Time (y) CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

5 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions 5 CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) Annex B (Kyoto protocol) Industrial Nations Non Annex B Emerging Economies & Developing Countries most of the growth in global emissions originates from emerging economies Time (y) CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

6 2000 Top Emitters China per capita (2007) ton C per person 1.4 (China) CO 2 Emissions (million tons C/y) Russian Fed. USA Japan India 5.2 (USA) 0.4 (India) Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010

7 Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO 2 y -1 ) Year 2004 From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red). Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech.

8 CO 2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) Gas Coal Cement production 40% 36% Liquids Global CO 2 emissions now dominated by coal Coal emits more CO 2 than liquids or gas Time (y) CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

9 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) Time (y) 2010: Projected growth rate: >3 % Based on 4.8 % projected growth in GDP by the IMF, and -1.7 % improvement in carbon intensity of the economy. CDIAC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

10 Fossil Fuel CO 2 Emissions compared to IPCC Marker scenarios used for climate projections CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) Time (y) growth rates are at the high end of the emissions scenarios used by the IPCC to project climate change IPCC range: C above pre-industrial in 2100 Updated from Le Quéré et al (2009) Nature Geoscience, using Marker scenarios modified from Raupach et al. PNAS (2007)

11 Emissions of CO 2 from deforestation and other Land Use Change (LUC)

12 CO 2 Emissions from deforestation and other Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) ± ±0.7 Estimated ~25% decrease between the two decades with large uncertainty Time (y) WHRC; Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience

13 Regional Emissions from Land Use Change CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Tropical Temperate R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication Both tropical and temperate LUC recently decreasing Temperate LUC could now be a small CO 2 sink

14 Regional Emissions from Land Use Change 1000 CO 2 emissions (Pg C y -1 ) Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication Satellite data for Brazil and Indonesia support recent LUC trends

15 Total CO 2 Emissions ( ) CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) Fossil fuel Land use change LUC emissions now ~10% of total CO 2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

16 Fate of CO 2 emissions

17 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) 1.1 PgC y PgC y -1 47% 2.4 PgC + y PgC y 27% -1 26% 2.3 PgC y -1 Global Carbon Project (2010), updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

18 Greenhouse gas concentration ( ) CO 2 (ppm) Atmospheric CO 2 concentration in Sept 2010: ppm CH 4 (ppb) Atmospheric CH 4 concentration increased for the third year in a row after being stable for 10 year. The cause of the recent increased is unknown. Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

19 Implications of recent trends for future emissions pathways

20 Emission scenarios consistent with 2 C limit Global air temperature ( C) 7 C (12.6 F) 2 C (3.6 F) % probability of exceeding 2 C: no more than 185 PgC (677 billion ton CO 2 ) emitted until % probability of exceeding 2 C: no more than 305 PgC (1120 billion ton CO 2 ) emitted until 2050 time (y) Meinshausen et al. Nature 2009

21 References cited in this ppt Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: , Carbon Dioxide Information Analyses Center (CDIAC). International Monetary Fund (2010) World economic outlook. October Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO 2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, Online 21 November Global Carbon Project (2010) Carbon budget and trends Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: /ngeo689. Meinshausen et al. (2009). Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C. Nature, Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO 2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42: Raupach MR et al. (2007) Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO 2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 14: Tans P, Conway T (2010) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL

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23 Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle CO 2 Partitioning (PgC y -1 ) Total CO 2 emissions Atmosphere Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

24 Modelled Natural CO 2 Sinks 2 Land sink (PgC/y) Ocean sink (PgC/y) Time (y) Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

25 Top 20 CO 2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person -1 y -1 ) Total CO2 emissions (x10,000 PgC y -1 ) 0 POLAND SPAIN AUSTRALIA FRANCE (inl. Monaco) ITALY BRAZIL SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA MEXICO SAUDI ARABIA CANADA UNITED KINGDOM IRAN SOUTH KOREA JAPAN GERMANY INDIA RUSSIA CHINA USA 0 Global Carbon Project 2010; Population World Bank 2010; CDIAC 2010