FUEL OPTIONS NATURAL GAS VS. LPG VS. COAL

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1 FUEL OPTIONS NATURAL GAS VS. LPG VS. COAL Sampo Suvisaari Regional Director, Wärtsilä Energy Solutions 20 th Annual S&P Global Platts Central American Energy Conference Panama City, Panama, June 15-16, 2017

2 NEED FOR FLEXIBILITY IN POWER SYSTEMS Best is not to use any fuel at all Renewables are quickly becoming the new baseload. Characteristic of renewables Variable, non-dispatchable generation Reduce load of other power plants & distort the net load curve Forecast errors on generation side Wind power Follows weather patterns, not human daily life cycles Minute-to-hourly output fluctuations ramping constraints Accurately forecastable only 1...n hours ahead Solar power Follows the human daily life & load pattern, except evening peak Second-to-minute output fluctuations Rapid frequency deviations Easier to forecast than wind power

3 VALUE OF FLEXIBILITY IN POWER SYSTEMS Practical impacts on power systems CCGT s first to suffer! Running hours drop from base load to intermittent. Average load drops. Inreasing number of (daily) starts and stops. Pulse-operation (uneconomical for CCGT). Forecasting operation cycles (planning) gets increasingly difficult. Coal and nuclear power plants next in line to suffer... Not able to stop and start loss-making minimum load operation to hang on. Main reason for renewable curtailment.

4 FUTURE POWER SYSTEMS INTERMITTENT RENEWABLES SMART POWER GENERATION STORAGE SYSTEMS AFFORDABILITY FLEXIBILITY

5 COAL

6 A REMNANT FROM LAST CENTURY Coal on its own is a value proposition from the last century because: More polluting than other alternatives Higher CO 2 production per MWh generated Low efficiency Rankine cycle Not a flexible technology Not suitable for cycling Does not combine well with increasing intermittent renewable generation Coal power plants are expensive to build: High capex (4-6 times more than simple cycle gas engines) Each power plant designed case by case, no standard solutions Very long and unpredictable construction times Difficult to finance in today s world Coal with biomass is a better proposition Burn waste from sugar production (bagasse) Emissions still a concern

7 DENTON CASE City of Denton in Texas is closing down their coal power plant and replacing the capacity with quick starting gas engine power plant kwh generated by intermittent wind power are cheaper than coal Gas power plant will enable more renewables (from 41% to 70%) and decrease electricity rate for consumers For details see

8 CITY OF DENTON CASE Current mix After new gas power plant is installed and coal plant closed down

9 CITY OF DENTON CASE Ultra-flexible Smart Power Generation based on Wärtsilä gas engines Simple cycle 225 MW Full load in less than 5 minutes Enables Denton to buy 70% renewable energy Electricity costs go down

10 EXAMPLE DISPATCH CASES

11 GIBBONS CREEK COAL PLANT OPERATION PROFILE ERCOT, TEXAS GW of wind power 8% of total peak load

12 GIBBONS CREEK COAL PLANT OPERATION PROFILE ERCOT, TEXAS GW of wind power 23% of total peak load 500 MW plant operating inefficiently at 200 MW and suffering from cycling

13 GIBBONS CREEK COAL PLANT OPERATION PROFILE ERCOT, TEXAS GW of wind power 27% of total peak load

14 COAL PLANT OPERATION PROFILE SPP, NEBRASKA 1.7 GW of wind power / 4% of peak load 6 GW of wind power / 11% of peak load Rule of thumb: > 5 % renewables problems for non-flexible generation assets

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16 LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

17 ROATAN ELECTRIC RUNNING ON PROPANE

18 ROATAN ELECTRIC RUNNING ON PROPANE Smart Power Generation

19 U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS GAS ENGINES ON PROPANE Wärtsilä press release April 4, 2017

20 PROPANE SPOT PRICES UP OVER THE LAST MONTHS Source: USD/gal / MMBtu/gal = 6.68 USD/MMBtu (FOB)

21 PROPANE VS BRENT Source: BW LPG Annual Report

22 LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

23 World LNG Report

24 LNG SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES FOR CENTRAL AMERICA 1. Supply agreement with a portfolio player Example Energia del Pacífico s agreement with Shell More interest in smaller scale agreements 2. Reload from existing LNG terminals SPEC FSRU in Cartagena, Colombia AES Dominican Republic, later also AES Panama 3. Supply agreement with smaller scale regional liquefaction facilities, such as Eagle LNG (Jacksonville, Florida) Direct supply from source Smaller scale LNG deliveries are now possible and multiple options available.

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