A Global Outlook on Natural Gas
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1 A Global Outlook on Natural Gas Dr. Carsten Rolle Weltenergierat Deutschland e. V. Dr. Carsten Rolle l
2 Agenda Introduction Weltenergierat Deutschland e. V. Climate Goals and Natural Gas Natural Gas in the Global Energy Mix The Role of Unconventional Resources The LNG Potential Conclusion 2
3 World Energy Council (WEC) Largest international energy organization About 100 Member Committees Founded in1923 Independent, no lobby organization Comprises all energy sources Represents more than 90 % of global energy production International work and study groups 3
4 WEC - Germany German WEC Committee Head office in Berlin More than 60 member companies of the energy sector and beyond Own publications, events, round tables, press talks XXIII. Weltenergiekonferenz: Oktober 2016 in Istanbul, Türkei Our goal: Realization and distribution of the WEC work results in Germany in order to inform based on facts and draw attention to the global aspects of energy and climate policy in the national discussion. 4
5 Climate Goals and Natural Gas
6 WEC-Scenarios: Global CO2 reduction goals not reached Expected Temperature Increase Source: Global CO2-Emissions in billion tons, World Energy Council Scenarios
7 Natural Gas consumption will rise according to all WEC-Scenarios Natural Gas Consumption (in billion tons oil-equivalent) - In all three scenarios, global natural gas consumption will rise and contribute to climate protection - The most climate-friendly scenario Unfinished Symphony sees a decline as of Market-driven scenario Modern Jazz assumes the highest gas consumption Source: World Energy Council Scenarios
8 Natural Gas in the Global Energy Mix
9 Global Primary Energy Consumption: Gas surpasses Coal Source: World Energy Outlook
10 Developing Countries lead the Growth in Global Gas Demand Source: World Energy Outlook
11 The Key to Global Gas Demand Growth: Power Generation, Industry, Buildings Source: World Energy Outlook
12 Future Gas Production Regions: Algeria, Indonesia, India, Mexico Source: World Energy Outlook
13 Asia is the Engine for Incremental Gas Imports Source: World Energy Outlook
14 EU Gas Imports grow; Supplier Diversity increases due to a Boost in LNG Trade Source: World Energy Outlook
15 The Role of Unconventional Resources
16 Unconventional Gas Worldwide: USA, Canada, China and Australia leading Source: Weltenergierat World Energy Deutschland Council e. V. Unconventional gas, a global phenomenon 16
17 The US at a turning point from net importer to net exporter Source: Team Consult The US in Focus, Oil & Gas Expert Talks
18 US LNG delivered mainly to Latin-America and Asia-Pacific Region Source: Team Consult The US in Focus, Oil & Gas Expert Talks
19 Argentina estimated to have the second-largest shale gas resource Source: Weltenergierat World Energy Deutschland Outlook e. V
20 Unconventional Gas Reserves Developments are hard to foresee Different political framework conditions worldwide High speed development of resources New competitors Globally available in form of LNG Price peaks BP expects increase of shale gas in global gas production from 11 % to 24 % until
21 The LNG Potential
22 LNG spurs a Second Natural Gas Revolution Source: World Energy Outlook
23 Oil and Gas Prices in Asia, Europe, USA: Gas Prices decreased by 30 % in
24 Global LNG-Trade: 265 million tons in 2016; Asia-Pacific largest importer 24
25 LNG Supplies Grow Strongly led by US and Australia Source: BP Energy Outlook
26 Conclusion
27 Conclusion Global role of gas is increasing most dynamic fossil fuel This might continue until mid 2030 s. Let us not talk away necessary investments Unconventional gas reserves / shale gas continues to have disruptive potential LNG will dominate gas trade in the future and pushes integration of regional markets stepwise further Diversification of gas extraction and delivery options goes on (European) consumers profit from that 27
28 Where can you meet the World Energy Council next? Executive Assembly October 16 19, 2017 in Lisbon 1st Nordic Energy Forum November 14 15, 2017 in Helsinki World Energy Outlook November 17, 2017 in Berlin Energy Day 2017 November 21, 2017 in Berlin 28
29 Questions and Thoughts Weltenergierat Deutschland e.v. Gertraudenstrasse Berlin Tel: Fax:
30 New Exporters Boost Supplier Diversity Source: World Energy Outlook
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