IEA Task 40 Sustainable International Biomass Trade: aspects for the Central European Region
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1 IEA Task 40 Sustainable International Biomass Trade: aspects for the Central European Region Lukas Kranzl, Gerald Kalt, Julian Matzenberger Transnational Workshop Trade of Biomass in Central Europe Vienna, 5 October 2010
2 What is the role of biomass for building a sustainable society? The vision of sustainable food production and agriculture Diets Land use management The vision of a sustainable supply of products and services Efficient processes Sustainable resource base: Biobased products and industries The vision of a sustainable, zero-carbon energy system: Sustainable level of resource consumption: efficiency, sufficiency Sustainable mix of energy sources Biomass: - Is the only renewable energy source that itself acts as an energy storage. - Is the only renewable energy source that can be easily transported over long distances. 2
3 Which role will these key characteristics of biomass (storage, long-distrance transports) play? How can we make use and benefit of these characteristics? What are the risks and (how) can we reduce them? => Depends strongly on the type of bioenergy use and our biomass paradigm! 3
4 A lot of open questions... Data for bioenergy transport: Consistency and reliability of data sources, connection between energetic and non-energetic biomass streams,... Scenarios for the future development of bioenergy trade and its impact on local markets Linkage of sector analyses and seperated aspects Forestry and agricultural product market models (Bio-)Energy system models and market analyses Land use change analyses marginal and degraded lands => data!? Case studies of impacts in supply and demand regions Policy issues Ecological sustainability issues Biorefineries and non-energetic demand of biomass Logistics and trade analyses... 4
5 Since 2004 Task leader: Copernicus Institute Utrecht University, Andre Faaij, Martin Junginger, Peter Paul Schouwenberg, RWE/Essent Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, UK, USA (expressed interest: Australia, Ireland)
6 IEA Bioenergy Task 40: objectives Core objective: to support the development of a sustainable, international, bioenergy market, recognising the diversity in resources, biomass applications Biomass supply Sustainability and certification Trade market and demand dynamics Transport, logistics and trade Outreach and dissemination
7 Selected highlights of the IEA Task 40 research Opportunities and barriers for international bioenergy trade Updated overview of bioenergy sustainability certification initiatives published World Bio-trade Equity Fund Study World Biofuel Maritime Shipping Study Bio-trade & Bioenergy Success Stories 2nd Generation Biofuels and Trade - an exploratory study Country reports 7
8 Biomass market situation and growth in Central Europe 8
9 Central Europe: cross country comparison (1) Share of bioenergy in the gross inland consumption (2007), values in PJ/a Source: Eurostat 2009; Kalt et al
10 Central Europe: cross country comparison (2) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Transport Electricity (& CHP) Heat 20% 10% 0% AT CZ DE HU IT PL SI SK Comparison of the structure of biomass primary energy consumption for heat generation, electricity and transport fuel production in Central European countries,
11 Central Europe: dynamic development (2) Consumption of biomass & wastes (PJ/a) Transport fuels Electricity and CHP District heating Heat generation Consumption of biomass & wastes (PJ/a) 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, AT DE HU PL SK CZ DK IT SI Source: Eurostat 2009, Kalt et al
12 Biomass trade in Central Europe 13
13 Net imports / exports of bioenergy (1) 2,500 2,000 Net imports of wood and wood waste for energy generation , ,000 t/a 1, PJ/a AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Sources: Eurostat (2009); Kalt et al
14 Net imports / exports of bioenergy (2) 1, Net imports of wood pellets ,000 t/a PJ/a AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Sources: Pellet@las (2010), Kalt et al
15 Net imports / exports of bioenergy (4) 600, ,000 Net imports of biodiesel , , t/a 200, , PJ/a , , ,000 AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Sources: EBB (2009), Eurobserv ER (2009), error bars for the years 2005 to 2007 represent data according to Eurostat (2009), Kalt et al
16 Impact of biodiesel production on international trade (Germany) 3,000 2,500 Germany Demand for biodiesel production t/a 2,000 1,500 1, Domestic production rape seed Net import palm oil Net import rape seed Net import rape oil , Sources: UN Comtrade (2009), Eurostat (2009), EBB (2009), Kalt et al
17 Impact of biodiesel production on international trade (Austria) t/a Demand for biodiesel production Net import rape oil Net import rape seed Domestic production rape seed Net import palm oil Austria Sources: UN Comtrade (2009), Eurostat (2009), EBB (2009), Kalt et al
18 Biomass streams in Central Europe: Fuelwood (TJ/yr) 760 LV DK 610 LT NL 310 PL FR 3,290 CH 230 DE IT , CZ 1,120 AT , SI HR 2,090 2,390 BA SK HU 50 1,940 RO UA Sources: Data obtained from UN Comtrade (2009), Kalt et al
19 0.8 Biomass streams in Central Europe: Wood residues (PJ/yr) NO SE EE LV DK 1.6 LT FR NL 12.5 BE CH DE CZ 4.1 AT 0.5 SI HR PL 1.0 SK 1.6 HU RO UA IT BA Sources: Data obtained from UN Comtrade (2009), Kalt et al
20 Outlook and the global perspective 23
21 Biomass potentials in Central European countries Ratio of biomass potential to total gross inland consumption 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Thrän et al. (2005) EEA (2006) de Wit et al. (2010) In most of these countries agriculture plays a crucial role for increasing bioenergy supply. 0% AT CZ DE DK HU IT PL SI SK Sources: Thrän et al. (2005), EEA (2006) and de Wit and Faaij (2010) to total gross inland energy consumption (scenario according to Capros et al., 2008; PRIMES target case ) 24
22 Global biomass potentials Main impact parameter: Land required for food production (diets, land availability, land use management, water availability, sustainability issues,...) Bauen et al. (2010) Smeets et al. (2007) Hoogwijk (2003) Faaij (2008) Bauen et al. (2010) Doornbosch et Steenblik (2007) WBGU (2003) IFEU (2007) IEA (2007) Bauen et al. (2010) Technical potential Sustainable potential Economic potential Historical use EJ/a 25
23 Current shipping lanes for bioenergy Canada E. Europe & Russia W. Europe USA Japan Ethanol Wood pellets Veg. oils & biodiesel Brazil Argentina S. Africa Malaysia & Indonesia Australia Source: Junginger, Faaij,
24 What might be the implications of long distance bioenergy trade? Ensure a secure, stable supply of Additional pressure on the agricultural biomass production with implications on Enable the further replacement of resource use, intensification... fossil energy Additional pressure on land use change All these issues have to be put on the Make use of the key top benefits of the political of agenda! Subsistence agriculture bioenergy in a future sustainable Marginal land => marginalised people? society: tradeability, energy GHG-emissions due to (indirect) land use storage,... And: this does not primarily depend changeon... the further development of bioenergy! Additional pressure on biodiversity Additional pressure on scarce water resources Additional pressure on social standards... Strong policy framework! 27
25 Sustainability criteria and certification A lot of different initiatives with different standards, aspects, objectives are currently existing. Most of them are dealing with liquid biofuels. Most of them are focusing on environmental principles. Concerns with respect to food security and socio-economic impacts are generally not included! (Some voluntary schemes include socio-economic issues such as labour and employment conditions.) Wide variety of standards, methodologies => risk of confusion in the market, abuse and shopping of standards. In spite of current limitations certification has the potential to influence direct, local impacts related to environmental and social effects. => further development and strengthening of standards and methodological frameworks! Source: Dam et al
26 Outlook and conclusions (1) Building a sustainable energy system will require different ways of making use of bioenergy. This might mean to broaden our traditional biomass paradigm (biorefineries, large scale biomass conversion units, biomass as a commodity...). Partly, this has already happened in Central Europe since 2000: Continuous growth of the heating sector (mostly traditional, small scale) High growth in the electricity/chp and transport sector Since 2007: more biomass used in these new sectors than in the heating sector. => implications on biomass trade in Central Europe 29
27 Outlook and conclusions (2) Impact on biomass trade in Central Europe: Importing countries are importing more (e.g. woody biomass DK, IT) Some countries enlarged their export activitities (e.g. Pellets in DE, PL) Indirect effects: higher imports of paper and pulp, fibre board industry Biomass in the transport sector: strong increase of trade with biofuels, plant oil, oil seeds mainly from Eastern Europe, partly also palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia. Despite the growing relevance of liquid biomass, woody biomass still holds the main part of international biomass trade in CE (in particular if we include the non-energetic use in the paper and pulp and fibre board industry). 30
28 Outlook and conclusions (3) Strong policy framework highly required for critical issues of the agricultural sector, land use management, socio-economic structures, ecological standards etc. We need this framework independent of what happens in the bioenergy sector! Certification of sustainability criteria can be an element of such a strong policy framework if: Clear, unambigous standards are set. No abuse and shopping of standards.... It s not enough to replace fossil energy by biomass (or other renewable energy): What we need is a change of energy supply and demand patterns and completely new ways of economic, societal cooperation on a local and global scale. 31
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