Driving Factors of SO 2 Emissions in 13 Cities, Jiangsu, China

Transcription

1 Avalable onlne at ScenceDrect Energy Proceda 88 (2016 ) CUE2015-Appled Energy Symposum and Summt 2015: Low carbon ctes and urban energy systems Drvng Factors of SO 2 Emssons n 13 Ctes, Jangsu, Chna Yzhong Wang a, Qunwe Wang a,*, Ye Hang a,* a School of Busness, Soochow Unversty, 50 Donghuan Road, Suzhou , Chna Abstract Wth the ar polluton gettng worse, reducng pollutant emssons has become an mportant ssue n envronmental governance nowadays. Ths paper analyzes the drvng factors of SO 2 emssons n Jangsu Provnce, Chna, usng Logarthmc Mean Dvsa Index (LMDI). The study fnds that the end of ar polluton control s the man postve drve of SO 2 emsson decrease, whle energy ntensty s the man negatve drves; most of the ctes have the great potental to mprove energy effcency and reduce SO 2 emssons; governments need to develop specfc reducton targets n accordance wth the actual stuatons of dfferent ctes. Keywords: Ar polluton; Drvng factors; Index decomposton analyss; SO 2 emssons 1. Introducton Nomenclature Abbrevaton E quantty of energy consumpton IDA Index Decomposton Analyss Y Gross Regonal Product SDA Structural Decomposton Analyss R cty LMDI Logarthmc Mean Dvsa Index addton decomposton Symbols D multplcatve decomposton P emsson quantty Subscrpt F formaton quantty -th ndustry C quantty of raw coal consumpton Wth the advance of Reform and Openng-up, Chna s economy has acheved a leap forward development. However, the extensve growth mode has to consume substantal energy resources and cause hgh ntensty of polluton emssons n the long run, whch has brought about a seres of * Correspondng author. Tel.: E-mal address: wqw0305@126.com (Qunwe Wang), hy_leaf@163.com(ye Hang) The Authors. Publshed by Elsever Ltd. Ths s an open access artcle under the CC BY-NC-ND lcense ( Peer-revew under responsblty of the organzng commttee of CUE 2015 do: /j.egypro

2 Yzhong Wang et al. / Energy Proceda 88 ( 2016 ) envronmental problems. Therento, the problem of ar polluton s especally serous, of whch a typcal representaton s that the dsastrous weather on behalf of haze frequently comes up. To ease the atmospherc polluton, Chnese government has ssued a seres of envronmental protecton polces. Jangsu provnce s one of the economcally developed provnces n Chna; but n ths area, the ar envronment protecton s also facng a severe challenge. Accordng to 2015 Jangsu provncal envronmental bulletn, n 2014, the ar qualty of 13 prefecture-level ctes fals to reach the correspondng standard. Jangsu provnce has taken a seres of measures to change the predcament. At the same tme, L et al. [1] ndcate that the envronmental-economc systems n Southern and northern regons of Jangsu Provnce are sgnfcantly dfferent, and ths phenomenon occurs frequently n the eastern coastal areas of Chna. So carryng Jangsu Provnce as an example can provde conduct for the economc sustanable development of coastal areas. In recent years, how to control and reduce the emsson of ar pollutants has become a debatable ssue n both domestc and foregn studes. At frst these studes need to dentfy the drvng factors of the pollutant emssons. Index Decomposton Analyss (IDA) and Structural Decomposton Analyss (SDA) are the man methods n factors decomposton. Followng Ang [2], Logarthmc Mean Dvsa Index (LMDI) s the most deal method. Therefore, we choose ths method to study how to control and reduce the emsson of ar pollutants for Jangsu. Ths paper would dentfy drvng factors of ar polluton emssons by temporal and spatal decomposton. What s more, we compare dfferences at cty level, whch scholars pay less attenton to before. 2. Methodology and data As one of the man ar pollutants, SO 2 has great harm to human health, acd ran and hgh aerosol concentraton, but few lterature have studed t. Therefore, ths paper dscusses the drvng factors of SO 2 emssons n Jangsu and the ctes. The research objects are 13 ctes n Jangsu provnce, Chna (Fgure 1). The perod s from 2006 to The data used are from the Jangsu Statstcal Yearbook, Chna Cty Statstcal Yearbook and the statstcal bulletns and yearbooks of each cty. Fgure 1 13 sampled ctes n Jangsu, Chna

3 184 Yzhong Wang et al. / Energy Proceda 88 ( 2016 ) Ar pollutant emssons s comprehensvely nfluenced by the end of the polluton control, coal consumpton, energy consumpton structure, energy ntensty, economc growth and other factors [3]. Thus the decomposton model s as follows: P P F C E Y F C E Y Y Y POF FOC C OE E OY YOY Y (1) Ths model decomposes the changes of SO 2 emssons nto sx drves: FOC sad the end of the ar polluton control measures, POF sad the ntensty of coal polluton, COE sad the energy structure, EOYsad the energy ntensty, YOY on behalf of the ndustral structure, and Y s the economc scale. On the bass of temporal decomposton, we further compare the dfferences among ctes n Jangsu provnce accordng to the mult-regon spatal decomposton model proposed by Ang [4]. Construct ndrect comparson ndexes between ctes: R1 R2 R1R R2R P P P (2) EOY EOY EOY R1R R1 R2 R2R Equaton (2) and (3) can be used to carry out an ndrect comparson between the regons on the results of addton and multplcatve, so that we can analyze the dfferences n emssons of pollutants from regons or ctes at the same tme. 3. Results and dscussons Usng equaton (1), (2), and (3), we can study the changes of drvng factors at the regonal and urban levels. Table 1 Results of SO 2 emssons decomposton (3) Factor 11th FYP ( ) Contrbuton degree D Early stage of 12th FYP ( ) Contrbuton degree End of Control Measures( POF ) % % 0.91 Intensty of Coal Polluton( FOC ) % % 1.07 Energy Structure( COE ) % % 0.95 Energy Intensty( EOY) % % 1.14 Industral Structure( YOY ) % % 0.96 Economc Scale(Y ) % % 1.07 Total % % The results n table 1 show that Jangsu provnce has acheved a substantal reducton n SO 2 emssons durng the "11th FYP "(11th Fve-Year Plan). There s a decrease ( kg) n the varaton of emsson D

4 Yzhong Wang et al. / Energy Proceda 88 ( 2016 ) of approxmately 31.98%. But n the "12th FYP" (12th Fve-Year Plan) early stage, the fluctuaton of SO 2 emssons of Jangsu Provnce shows an obvous rebound. The decreasng trend n the varaton of SO 2 ( kg) halts wth an ncrease of 7.68%.It s possble to wtness that n "11th FYP", the decrease n the aggregated emsson was confrmed by a decrease of 68.4% n POF (the end of control measures) and by a decrease of 6.5% n COE (the energy structure) and by a decrease of 6.3% n YOY (the ndustral structure). Durng "12th FYP" early stage, the ncrease n emsson s contrbuted by FOC (the ntensty of coal polluton), EOY (the energy ntensty) and Y (the economc scale). Table 2 Results of ndrect comparson between ctes Cty R1 R2 R1 R2 P EOY D EOY ( Addton) (Multplcatve) Nanjng Wux Xuzhou Changzhou Suzhou Nantong Lanyungang Huaan Yancheng Yangzhou Zhenjang Tazhou Suqan 0 1 Due to small scale of economy and small amount of energy consumpton, Suqan s the benchmark cty n EOY. The results of comparson between Suqan and other ctes are shown n table 2. It s possble to wtness that Nanjng ( kg) and Xuzhou ( kg) perform the worst, meanng the energy effcences (energy ntenstes) n the two ctes are poorest. And the ctes of better performance nclude Wux, Changzhou, Nantong and Yancheng based on same reasons as Suqan. It s worth notng that Suzhou s the most economcally developed cty n Jangsu Provnce, but ts energy effcency s only medum level (0.3062). 4. Concluson Durng the two perods ( and ), the man negatve factor s EOYand the man postve factor s POF n SO 2 emssons. The overall emsson reducton performance n "11th FYP" s better, and ths s manly because of the weakenng effect of POF. In the"12th FYP" early stage, the effect of POF sharply reduced. Ths s because techncal factors cannot make a breakthrough n the short term, and after a lot of nvestment n the early stage, the potental of governance s gradually reduced. The negatve effect of EOYs decreasng, whch ndcates that the energy utlzaton mode s amelorated and the energy effcency s mproved n Jangsu Provnce.

5 186 Yzhong Wang et al. / Energy Proceda 88 ( 2016 ) Based on the ndrect comparson between ctes, we concluded that the ctes energy effcency performances are not satsfactory, especally n Xuzhou and Nanjng. At the same tme, energy effcency performance n Suzhou s not optmstc, whch s n the medum level. Muncpaltes have great potental to mprove energy effcency, but there reman sgnfcant dfferences among ctes. So we need to develop specfc emsson reducton targets and fnd emsson reducton paths n accordance wth the actual stuaton and potental of dfferent ctes. 5. Acknowledgement Ths research s supported by the Natonal Natural Foundaton of Chna (nos , ), the Postdoctoral Scence Foundaton of Chna (nos.2012m510139, 2013T60561), the Socal Scence Foundaton of Jangsu Provnce (no.12glc008), and Jangsu Qng Lan project. 6. Reference [1]. L J L, Zhang Z L, Zeng Z P. Study on energy analyss and sustanable development of Jangsu envronmental-economc system. Chna populaton, resources and envronment 2003; 13(2): [2]. Ang B W. Decomposton analyss for polcymakng n energy: whch s the preferred method? Energy polcy 2004; 32(9): [3]. Lu M Z, Yang J X, Ma D, Dng Z H. Spatal dsparty and factor analyss of major ar pollutant emssons n Chna based on LMDI methods. Resources Scence 2015; 2: [4]. Ang B W, Xu X Y, Su B. Mult-country comparsons of energy performance: The ndex decomposton analyss approach. Energy Economcs 2015; 47:68 76.