Renewable Heating Technologies 2008

Transcription

1 Renewable Heating Technologies 2008 Andrew Giles Abdel Eljidi 14 th May 2009 Starting: 15:00 hrs Brussels Time (GMT+1) 14:00 hrs UK Time (GMT) 09:00 hrs New York Time slides will be recorded and presented on 1

2 Who are we? Andrew Giles, MA General Manager BSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) At BSRIA for 24 years Abdel Eljidi Senior Manager BSRIA - World Market Intelligence (WMI) At BSRIA for 4 years 2

3 BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Heating and renewables Turnover 2.1 million ($3.8m) 60% market reports 40% private client Research across 94 countries 30 permanent multi-lingual staff Offices in China, France, Spain, Germany, partners in other countries Global network of associates Central Workstation HVAC Access Control CCTV Fire Alarm Remote Access Lighting Energy Management Intelligent Building controls - Security / Fire / Environmental Air conditioning and refrigeration Water conservation & Sanitary ware FM and contracting IT cabling 3

4 Europe: 14 countries Introduction Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, UK, Croatia, Hungary, Poland World: Europe (14) plus U.S.A., China, Brazil, South Korea. Flat plate + Vacuum tubes (only glazed collectors) 4

5 Multiclient Methodolgy 2 pronged attack RESEARCH FIELDWORK Primary research Annual study now in fifth year Face to face interviews in every country ( expert to expert ) Telephone interviews Database from headquarters Global market specialist Strong QA procedures Country specialists Secondary: Online and desk research GLOBAL ANALYST Abdel Eljidi (global market specialist) attends exhibitions, conferences, seminars Media monitoring Constant discussion with network of industry experts Japanese contacts Utilities Institues Manufacturers Web research ( products and companies) QA research reports 5

6 What is the impact of alternative heating technologies on traditional heating markets? 6

7 Solar Thermal markets update

8 Changing nature of the HVAC industry in 2008/9 Lower growth of boiler sales in large European markets Strong growth of renewable varies across technologies and markets Micro-CHP in field trial phase in Europe 2009/10 German solar market is booming with new subsidies in place Investment in renewable technologies strong in 2008 Stronger presence of Japanese AC companies Decreasing heating load for space heating in the new build insulation Likely to see some consolidation in HVAC market in

9 Market Drivers Concern fossil fuel supplies maybe disrupted (Russian winter blues, political instability in the Middle East) Prices of oil/ gas likely to increase to similar peaks in 2008 Construction slowing down US & Europe Nuclear energy is becoming popular as alternative Increasing environmental awareness to climate change More stricter building regulations (EPBD, EuP, 2020 ) Race by HVAC mfrs to develop renewable products/ partnerships Various regional/ national subsidies to kick start the market! Promotions by utilities The role of some utilities changing from energy supply to energy management 9

10 Diversification on all fronts Utilities changing Heat emitters Heating Renewables Specialists Air conditioning g M-CHP Heat Pumps 10

11 Diversification of Leading Boiler Manufacturers, 2008 Boilers Water Heaters A/C Solar Thermal Heat pumps Heat Recovery Biomass Solar PV Micro- CHP / FC Bosch Therm. trials Vaillant Group R & D Viessmann 2007 trials MTS trials BAXI???? De Dietrich-Remeha???? trials Riello Ferroli Stiebel Eltron R & D 11

12 Key findings 1212

13 Impact on SOLAR THERMAL Solar supply is much more than a matter of adding some solar collectors Plenty of extra pipework, valves, pumps and controls 13

14 Various Incentives National Grants Federal/ Regional Tax credits Lower VAT Utilities Feed in tariffs Local Cheaper tariffs loans Green Loans public agencies 14

15 Selected Incentives schemes Different situation regarding incentives in various countries. Important driver together with legislation. Germany, Austria,Italy, France among others offer incentives. National and regional. Germany: MAP ( Marktanreizprogramm zu Gunsten erneuerbarer Energien ) by BAFA (minimum 410 per installation) France: 50% tax credits Italy: 55% tax credit up to 60,000 (uncertainy for the future) Austria: varies from 600 to over 3,000 No incentives in Greece, Turkey and limited in the UK But in some countries (Spain, Israel) solar is becoming mandatory 15

16 World markets Solar Thermal Worldwide Reach 16

17 World markets Heat Pumps Limited penetration 17

18 Vacuum tube, value, 2007/8 Others 16.0M Germany 22.1M China M Others 93.7M France 6.3M UK 8.3M Italy 11.3M Poland 9.4M South Korea 9.8M Turkey 10.5M 1,100 million 18.9 million m2 18

19 Flat plate collector, value 2007/8 China 252.0M Others 530.2M USA 26.1M Austria 30.5M France 41.4M Others 60.4M Germany 113.3M Spain 59.8M Turkey 45.3M Greece 46.6M Italy 51.0M Brazil 55.8M 782 million 6.3 million m2 19

20 US Solar Water Heating Market Trends & Forecasts Sq.meters 700, , , , , , , Excluding swimming pool collectors 20

21 USA solar collector market 2008 Heliodyne All others Radco Products SunEarth Alternate Energy Technologies Type of collectors Volume m 2 Value million (at MSP) Flat plate collectors 200, Vacuum tubes 8, Total 209,

22 European flat plate market size, in million (MSP), 2008 Turkey 8% Switzerland 2% Spain 15% Croatia 0.3% UK 3% Hungary 0.3% Poland 2% Austria 6% Belgium 2% France 9% Portugal 2% Italy 14% Greece 9% Germany 28% 2008: 546 million 22

23 European vacuum tubes market size, in million (MSP), 2008 Hungary 2% Croatia 0.4% Poland 14% Austria 1% Belgium France 2% 8% UK 11% Turkey 10% Switzerland 1% Spain 4% Portugal 1% Italy 17% Greece 2% Germany 27% 2008: million 23

24 European solar thermal market (14 countries), in thousand m 2, , , , , , , , , E 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 24

25 European flat plate market, 2008, volume in m 2 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , : 3,751,000 m2 25

26 European vacuum tubes market, 2008, volume in m 2 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, : 596,000 m2 26

27 Solar market trends and forecasts, ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Germany Turkey Greece Austria Spain South Korea France Italy USA Poland Switzerland UK Belgium Portugal 50%

28 European, type of circulation, 2008 Thermosiphon 34% Drainback 2% Forced Circulation (with pump) 64% 28

29 European end-users, 2007 Non-residential replacement 1% Non-residential first time installation 6% Non-residential new build 5% Residential new build 36% Residential first time installation 42% Residential replacement 10% 29

30 European applications, 2007 Commercial hot water heating 9% Commercial space heating (combi) 1% Swimming pools (excluding unglazed collectors) 2% Domestic space heating (combi) 19% Domestic hot water heating 69% 30

31 Europe, type of installation, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Austria Croatia Greece Italy Poland Portugal Hungary Belgium Germany France Spain Switzerland Turkey UK Stand alone installation unassisted by other heating systems Solar thermal system combined with heat pump total renewable solution Solar thermal system assisted by electric water heater Solar thermal system assisted by a boiler (Gas/ oil/ Biomass) 31

32 Germany, flat plate market shares, 2008 Thermosolar Vaillant Wolf (Centrosolar) Pro Solar Sunset (Chromagen) Solvis Weishaupt (Schweizer) Broetje (Baxi) Schueco GC Group Sonnenkraft Other Manufacturers Other Importers BBT Wagner Viessmann 2008: 1,850,000 m2 32

33 Germany, vacuum tubes, 2008 Elco- Kloeckner Solar Technologies Consolar Solvis Wagner Vaillant Viessmann BBT Others Paradigma 2008: 160,000 m2 33

34 UK flat plates, market share, in volume, 2008 Solar Tw in Sundw el AES Solar Genersys Others Wolf Filsol Viessmann Total: 47,900 m 2 34

35 UK vacuum tubes, market share, in volume, 2008 Vaillant Sonnenkraft Others Viessmann Rayotec Kingspan Renew ables Collectra AG (by Smart Energy) Total: 30,000 m 2 35

36 Commercial and Industrial Applications Untapped market! 36

37 Opportunities in the Commercial and Industrial Markets Natural gas/ oil remain the main fuel but desire to phase out oil systems Collective Solar market growing but focus on hot water Share of renewables in industrial applications very low, mostly PV Large capacity high temp. heat pumps (CO2) limited to residential use Current various CSP systems still too costly and have limitations Restricted due to space required: cannot fixed securely on roofs or integrated in the same way as ordinary flat plate/ evacuated tubes collectors Low awareness to solar heat potential in industrial/ commercial segments Several industries could benefit from medium to high temp renewables systems, where pressure on reducing energy costs is high. Lack of incentives for commercial and industrial processes 37

38 Key Target Applications for high efficiency collectors 38

39 Solar cooling Market overview Currently over 100 systems installed in Europe Most of solar suppliers interested in this segment Small number of manufacturers, mostly small/ medium companies <10 A combination of absorption/ adsorption chillers below 100kW For optimum efficiency solar collectors have limited use depending on location Vacuum tubes offer better potential but have short life span (fragile) Southern European (Italy, Spain, Greece) key target for market deployment The hotel and leisure industry, public buildings offer the largest potential Can reduce pressure on the electricity grid during peak times in the summer Clean, no refrigerants Commercial launch is dependent on higher fossil fuel costs and politics 39

40 Attractiveness of Solar cooling: Solar cooling 1 The technology appeals to end users due to lack of harmful refrigerants no GHG Can reduce pressure on the electricity grid during peak times in the summer Commercial launch is dependent on higher fossil fuel costs and politics Most manufacturers planning commercial launch in 2009/10 Current solar assisted cooling systems: Climatewell: 10 kw, suitable for existing flat plat collectors <80C Sonnenklima (Suninverse): 10kW cooling, works on absorption principle with temp from 55C to 105C, suitable for small buildings below 200m2 Sortech AG (7.5kW) Yazaki (Japan): now with fully fledged European office, mostly focused on OEM Solarctic 40

41 Solar cooling 2 Potential competition: Cheap and efficient electrical heat pumps subject to cheap electricity price Gas engine heat pumps (GHP): can do cooling + hot water proven technology GHP are successfully promoted in Italy, Spain, and recently Germany and France GHP are supplied by some leading A/C manufacturers: Sanyo, Aisin, MHI Hybrid systems: Gas absorption systems: Rotarktika (Spain), Vaillant (Germany) Hybrid biomass systems: cheap fuel as an alternative to solar thermal in low radiation areas (Austria, Germany) 41

42 Process heat High potential in segment below 300 ºC Several industries could benefit Currently lacks awareness Almost 1/3 of process heat is below 200C, suitable for roof installation Current systems: Linear Fresnel: PSA AG (Germany) Requires large area of collectors Not suitable for roof installations Vulnerable to wind Peak power: 500W/m2 For solar cooling: 1kWp/2m2 R&D on reducing thermal loss of flat plate collectors (70-120C) R&D into heat storage (sorption heat storage) Large scale solar for district heating <1% (some 15 plants so far >500m2 area) Planned commercialisation 2009/10 42

43 Big Changes on the way Solar thermal to be mandatory in new buildings Changing focus, from new build to renovation Big opportunities in the non-residential market Evolution towards mass market Energy storage becoming important Hybrid solution on the rise solar thermal + HP Micro-CHP a boiler progression but likely to remain niche systems 43