Tapping a Hidden Resource: Energy Efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa

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1 Tapping a Hidden Resource: Energy Efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa Alex Kremer & Dominique Lallement Consultation Workshop Tunis, November 25-26, 2008

2 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT chapter 1 2 WHY The Facts on EE Scope for Growth Environmental & Human Development Benefits 3 Fiscal Savings 4 Pricing 5 WHAT Social protection Institutional & Financing 6 arrangements 7 Country stories 8 HOW Sector issues 9 Entry points and sequencing

3 hat do we mean by energy efficiency? Macro Level: Energy intensity = energy use per $ of GDP Structure of the Economy, Resource Endowment, Price of Energy, Consumption decisions Meso and Micro Level: Consumption of energy in sector, industry or household Technical energy efficiency = e.g. miles per gallon, lumens per watt

4 Part I: Why Energy Efficiency chapter 1 2 The Facts on EE Scope for Growth Environmental & Human Development Benefits 3 Fiscal Savings

5 MENA depends on Oil and Gas for 95% of its energy consumption as compared to 69% for the rest of the World Share of Total Primary Energy Supply by Fossil Fuel by Region, % 80% 60% ktoe 40% 20% 0% MENA Asia Excluding China Latin America Non-OECD Total World Coal and Coal Products Natural G as O il and O il Products

6 MENA s Overall Energy Intensity is Increasing: = 60% more energy intensive than OECD Countries = 40% more energy intensive than upper middleincome countries Energy intensity change 2005/1990 % change in energy intensity % 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% China East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia India Middle income United States World Latin America & Caribbean MENA Energy intensity = energy use per $ of GDP Technical energy efficiency = e.g. miles per gallon, lumens per watt

7 Energy Intensity is increasing or decreasing regardless of the countries resource endowment Change in energy intensity % Oman 40% 20% 0% -20% Syria Jordan UAE Algeria Lebanon Egypt Iran Yem en Morocco KSA -40% Bahrain Tunisia

8 The largest share of consumption and fastest growth is from Transport Share of Total Final Consumption by Sector by Region, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% MENA Asia Excluding China Latin America Non-OECD Total World Industry Transport Other Sectors Non-Energy Use

9 WHY Energy Efficiency? Scope for growth 20% Increase in EE would generate 2-5% of Additional GDP US$ million/year GDP increase Iran 3,010 Egypt 1,406 Morocco 353 Tunisia 233 Rest of North Africa(XNF) 1,089 Rest of West Asia (XWS) 4,917 Total 11,008 GTAP CGE model

10 WHY? Energy Efficiency generates environmental and Human Development benefits % of GNI loss due to particulate matter EAP MENA South Asia ECA LAC SSA World 10% more energy efficiency 2,400 lives saved per year in 8 MENA countries Report quantifies potential for carbon emission reductions

11 Why? Fiscal savings Energy Subsidies cost 7.1% of GDP (2006) Subsidies as Percent of GDP Iran Iraq Libya Syria Egypt Kuwait Yemen Algeria Saudi Arabia Lebanon Jordan Oman UAE Bahrain Tunisia Qatar Morocco Less energy use = lower subsidy cost Energy efficiency eases subsidy-reduction

12 Part II: What Solutions for Energy Efficiency? 4 Pricing 5 WHAT Social protection 6 Institutional & Financing arrangements 8 Sector/Technical Solutions

13 The foundations of technical solutions: price reform with social protection, enabling framework, implementation arrangements. Technical solution Quick Payback Implementation arrangements - Energy efficiency agency - Energy efficiency program(s) - Financing arrangements - Enlisting stakeholders Enabling framework - National plans - Laws and decrees -Regulation Price Reform Social Protection - Efficiency, flexibility, transparency - Targeted subsidies and cash transfers, - EE programs for industries and households

14 There is scope for progressive pricing reform to encourage energy efficiency Electricity Prices in Mena Countries (average residential, 4 th quarter 2007) Diesel Prices in MENA US cents/kwh countries benchmark US cents/kwh benchmark countries Benchmark for electricity =derived value from tariffs in the northern Mediterranean Countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey), where financial and Environmental costs are covered economic pricing.

15 Prices affect levels of energy consumption & technology choice Tariff determines electricity intensity y = Ln(x) av. annual growth in electricity intensity R 2 = av. tariff (US cents/kwh) : Not including drought-affected Syria and Yemen cumulative cost $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 CFLs vs. Incandescent Lamps CFLs months Incandescents With power at US$0.03/kwh, households have little incentive to switch to CFLs

16 Pricing for energy efficiency more than just price increases Principles Efficiency Measures Prices should cover the opportunity cost of providing energy Flexibility Pass-through of primary fuel costs Transparency Consumers know tariff structures according to timing, location and quality of supply. Time of Use tariff for electricity

17 Pricing Reforms and Social Protection for Energy Efficiency go hand-in-hand Phase I Phase II Phase III Identify Target Groups + Estimate of The Cost of Lifting Subsidies + Mobilizing the Funding (Budget & other Sources) Select Form of Compensation Select Transfer Mechanisms Banks Postal Service Vouchers Smart cards

18 Pricing Reforms and Social Protection: Some Country Examples Indonesia: targeted cash transfers replaced untargeted energy subsidies; Brazil: energy efficiency programs helped households adjust to higher prices; Jordan: targeting of key stakeholder groups.

19 Solid Institutional and Financing Arrangements are part of EE Solutions Algeri a Eg ypt Ira n Isr ael Jor da n Ku wa it Leban on Morocco Saudi Arabia Sy ria Tu nis ia Enabling frameworks in place Energy efficiency laws and decrees National energy plans Energy efficiency regulations and rules Apex agency for the energy sector Implementation arrangements Energy efficiency agency Programmatic arrangements Financing arrangements Other supportive arrangements Results monitoring

20 Technical Entry Points in all Sectors of Activity Lighting Energy audits in manufacturing Construction standards (MED-ENEC) Transport Efficiency (cars and urban transport system) Irrigated Agriculture Power Transmission and Distribution losses (7,300MW if all countries were at 10%) CHPs Gas Flaring

21 Conclusion: Energy Efficiency : a resource for MENA, waiting to be tapped ktep/1000 DT 0,420 0,410 0,400 0,390 0,380 0,370 0,360 0,350 0,340 0,330 0,412 0,393 0,416 0,416 Japan: Drop in Energy Intensity ,406 0,401 0,412 0,396 Tunisia Significant improvements 0,389 0,380 0,366 0,352 0,338 World Bank stands ready to provide investment and policy lending, analysis and technical assistance. quick payback lower subsidy cost mitigates the social impact of high prices improves air quality Saves lives & improves quality of life Tendances int ensit és énergét iues.xls

22 Entry points and opportunities for World Bank partnership price incentives policy analysis DPL implementation arrangements Investment lending IFC Carbon finance Clean Technology Fund enabling frameworks TA DPL fiscal deficit competitiveness energy security environment consumption patterns transport irrigation industry households

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