Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner Basel/Switzerland. economist/researcher Member Swiss Parliament

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1 Wind power Green Revolution in Energy Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner Basel/Switzerland economist/researcher Member Swiss Parliament

2 Crude oil at a peak Norway Oil production profile minus 25 % since 2001 peak Britain: Oil production profile minus 44% since 1999 peak 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 2

3 Oil, gas, coal, uranium prices + x 100% 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 3

4 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 4

5 Wind technology: bigger rotors = cheaper power onshore full load load hour per year offshore: full load hour per year Arklow Irland

250 1994 730 4 500 1 1995 1290 1 1000 2 1998 2597 3 2000 3 2000 4495 2 4000 4 2003 8344 3

6 Annual additions doubling every 2½ years! annual additions MW years of n = (Number of year doubling 2 n doublings ) Start years average doubling period Annual additions of wind power 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 6

7 One dozen reasons of wind power s success 1. The primary energy (wind) is 7. short energy payback of energy cost free invested, less than one year 2. The primary energy is renewable 8. global, easy access to wind and never runs out technology, compared to nuclear 3. There is an abundant resource andstable life cycle costs costs ofits 9. Short time to market, erection of wind farms within one year use can be guaranteed 10.Distances from good wind sites to 4. Wind power is competitive with consumers moderate ( other new power sources miles) compared to oil, gas etc. 5. There are no carbon emissions, no air pollution and no 11.Fast innovation cycles, based on maturing know how how. hazardous waste 12.Still a young technology, allowing 6. No water for cooling is needed more cost reductions 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 7

8 Wind resource: could cover ~ 100 times global lelectricity it demand d Source: Cristina Archer, Mark Jacobson/Stanford 2005 Gütsch, Switzerland Utgrunden Schweden US-Windfarm

9 Southern North sea: km 2 < 45m = ~ 13 Mbd = 7500 TWh P l EU l t i it Polygon area can cover EU-electricity consumption Two turbines / 10 MW per km 2

10 Offshore-projects in Europe Offshore yearly production Onshore yearly production

11 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 11

12 Floating turbines a new world of renewable power Deep-sea oil rigs inspire MIT designs for giant wind turbines Norsk hydro: first prototype announced for 2007

13 One dozen reasons of wind power s success 1. The primary energy (wind) is 7. short energy payback of energy cost free invested, less than one year 2. The primary energy is renewable 8. global, easy access to wind and never runs out technology, compared to nuclear 3. There is an abundant resource andstable life cycle costs costs ofits 9. Short time to market, erection of wind farms within one year use can be guaranteed 10.Distances from good wind sites to 4. There are no carbon emissions, consumers moderate ( no air pollution and no hazardous waste miles) compared to oil, gas etc. 11.Fast innovation cycles, based on 5. No water for cooling is needed maturing know how how. 6. Wind power is competitive with other new power sources 12.Still a young technology, allowing more cost reductions 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 13

14 Texas: 5 billion $ interconnection 45 billion $ private investments in turbines Texas PUC decision July 2008 TB T. Boone Pik Pickens Texas oil billionaire Investing 10 billion $ in Texas wind energy 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 14

15 Texas: net savings of 3.8 Cents per kwh source: Texas PUC public utility commission 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 15

16 British round 1, 2 wind zones (left) and Round 3 (right) 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 16

17 Price: 4 US Cents /kwh wind today cheaper than oil source: US DOE 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 17

18 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 18

19 Wind power at 1 Cent/kwh when turbine is paid Operation cost less than 1 EuroCent/kWh 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 19

20 Wind turbines get ever cheaper from 1 Euro/Watt today to 0.5 Euro/Watt by 2020 Source Reisi / ISET 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 20

21 WHY DID I NEVER HEAR ABOUT THAT? 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 21

22 IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO 2000)

23 The IEA Projections "Crude d oil prices are assumed to remain flat until 2010 at around $21 per barrel (in year 2000 dollars) their average level for the past 15 years. They will then rise steadily to $29 in Natural gas prices will move more or less in line with oil Prices International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook 2002, S

24 IEA method of supply prediction: predict demand! The oilsupply projections ofthis Outlook are derived from aggregated projections of oil demand. Opec conventional oil production is assumed to fll fill the gap. World Energy Outlook 2002 p

26 Alternative Szenario is just business as usual source: IEA (Noé van Hulst), Security of Supply and Climate Change Renewables in the IEA-Perspective: Alternative Scenario

27 GW Wind power IEA forecast and reality 60 Reality 1999 IEA World Energy Outlook

28 Wind power IEA forecast and reality GW 200 Windforce 10 ( % electricity it share) [1999] IEA World 60 Reality 1999 Energy Outlook

29 GW Wind power IEA forecast and reality 80 Windforce 10 ( % electricity share) [1999] IEA World 120 Energy Outlook Reality IEA World Energy Outlook

30 IEA: Prognosen und Wirklichkeit Windforce 10 ( % electricity share) [1999] GW Reality 12/2007 IEA World Energy Outlook 2002 IEA World Energy Outlook

31 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 31

32 IEA: Predicting stagnation for the next ten years Trend IEA forecasts 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 32

33 FOUR SCENARIOS RESULTS OF A SIMPLE MODEL 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 33

34 Model assumption: growth to continue! Two parameters: electricity consumption wind-solar growth High growth = mean annual growth ( ) continuing Moderate growth = half of mean annual growth /11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 34

35 Solar in Germany: explosive growth due to feed in tariffs total in nstalled PV-powe er in MWp : 1,000 Roofs Program : 2004: ,000 Roofs Progr. Amendment to EEG Feed-in 800 Low-interest loans tariff of for 300 MWp ct per kwh annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp

36 Solar important, but difficult to forecast Not yet least cost 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 36

37 The growth rates Scenario Power consumption growth Wind-solar sector growth (annual additions) A 36% 3.6% 30.4% B 3.6% 15.2% C 1.8% 30.4% D 1.8% 15.2% 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 37

38 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 38

39 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 39

40 Power plant investment shares scenarios A D 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 40

41 Reality shows: change is possible 41

42 Texas is not alone Wind power ~40 percent of new US power plants 2007 Wind power number one in Europe in MW 2007 Figure 9/11/ power mix of capacity additions Rechsteiner: in Wind the Power US green revolution and in Europe

43 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 43

44 WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE WIND IS NOT BLOWING? 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 44

45 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 45

46 Smoothing effect Netherlands only December 2000 wind speeds, 2030 MW amounts 100 % Netherlands 7000 MW installed wind po ower Power as % of 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % Hour

47 Smoothing effect Benelux+France+Germany installed wind po ower Power as % of 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % December 2000 wind speeds, 2030 MW amounts Netherlands 7000 MW BeNeLux+Fra+Ger MW Hour

48 Smoothing effect UCTE installed wind po ower Power as % of 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % December 2000 wind speeds, 2030 MW amounts Netherlands 7000 MW BeNeLux+Fra+Ger MW UCTE MW Hour

49 Smoothing effect installed wind po ower Power as % of 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % UCTE+Nordel+UK December 2000 wind speeds, 2030 MW amounts Netherlands 7000 MW BeNeLux+Fra+Ger MW UCTE MW UCTE+GB+Nordel MW Hour

50 Forecast precision 24 h: 5 6 % deviation 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 50

Lower overall costs by continental capacity

hydro storage available for nations with low

for capacity management instead ofbase base load

51 Lower overall costs by continental capacity management Create HDVC lines continent wide id Make hydro storage available for nations with low storage capacities Use fossil fuels like nat gas for capacity management instead ofbase base load power until renewables deliver 100% ofoverall overall consumption. 51

52 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 52

53 HVDC lines: high power low losses, no electro smog HVDC High Voltage Direct Current Normal AC grid

54 state of the art: 1 3 GW capacity in one cable many new projects earth cables cheap

55 Europe: Storages exist already interconnection insufficient

56 Some 10 % energy backup + 26 % capacity backup needed 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 56

57 Hybrid cars and electric trains: plug in, clean traffic Today: ~ 20% well-to-wheel-efficiency Tomorrow: Plug-in-Hybrid = electric car+ big battery + renewable power Tomorrow: Plug-in-Hybrid = electric car+ big battery + renewable power ~ 70 % wind-to wheel-efficiency achievable

59 WHO IS HOSTILE TO RENEWABLES AND EFFICIENCY? 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 59

60 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 60

61 Share of nuclear power in world electricty reactors in service since % Anteil Atomstrom 17.9% weltweit (%) 18% 16% Reaktoren in Betrieb 14% Datenreihen % 17.0% ,8% % GWe Leistung % 8% 6% 4% Leistung GWe 2% Reaktoren in Betrieb 0% /11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 61

62 Annual additions of nuclear and wind capacities in Megawatt Quellen: IAEA: Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 2, April 2006 / PRIS 35'000 30'000 annual additions nuclear 25'000 annual additions wind 20'000 15'000 growth forecast 2008 Wind-Boom '000 5' '000 nuclear renaissance renaissance? /11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 62

63 Renewable energy and efficiency They are here progress is visble They are cheap They are growing can save the day Put them in place now! 9/11/2008 Rechsteiner: Wind Power green revolution 63

Wind Power in Context A clean Revolution in the Energy Sector

Supported by Ludwig Bölkow Stiftung Embargo: January 9, 2009 Wind Power in Context A clean Revolution in the Energy Sector Presentation by Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner January 9-2009 press conference of Energy