OPPORTUNITIES FOR MITIGATION OF METHANE EMISSIONS IN CHINA

Transcription

1 PRESENTATION FOR THE STEP SEMINAR SERIES FEBRUARY 11, 2013 PRINCETON, NJ OPPORTUNITIES FOR MITIGATION OF METHANE EMISSIONS IN CHINA Presenters: Shannon Brink, Harrison Godfrey, Mary Kang, Shelly Lyser, Joseph Majkut, Samantha Mignotte Wei Peng, Matt Reid, Madhurita Sengupta, Laura Singer Faculty Advisor: Professor Denise Mauzerall

2 AUTHORS Shannon Brink, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Development Economics Harry Godfrey, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Domestic Policy Mary Kang, Ph.D. Candidate, Civil and Environmental Engineering Shelly Lyser, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Domestic Policy Joseph Majkut, Ph.D. Candidate, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Samantha Mignotte, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, Rural and Agricultural Development Wei Peng, Ph.D. Candidate, Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy Matthew Reid, Ph.D. Candidate, Civil and Environmental Engineering Madhurita Sengupta, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, International Affairs Laura Singer, Master in Public Affairs Candidate, International Affairs Project Advisor Denise Mauzerall, Professor of Environmental Engineering and International Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

3 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Project Background and Overview Sector Analyses Organic Waste Sectors Municipal Solid Waste Agriculture Wastewater Fossil Fuels Sector - Oil and Gas Recommendations Summary

4 OUR PROJECT Client: Global Methane Initiative (GMI) International effort to target methane abatement, recovery, and use. Includes 50 countries accounting for approximately 60 percent of global methane emissions. Administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Task: Examine methane emissions from source sectors in China, identify opportunities for mitigation.

5 MOTIVATION: WHY METHANE? Methane mitigation offers opportunities to slow the effects of global warming. Methane is the second-most important greenhouse gas in its warming potential, after CO2. Methane is a precursor for ground-level ozone. Mitigation reduces detrimental effects on health, agriculture and ecosystems. Species Global Warming Potential (100-yr. time period) Atmospheric Concentration (2005) CO ppm 1.66 CH4 25 1,774 ppb 0.48 N ppb 0.16 Radiative Forcing (2005) (W/m 2 ) Sources: EPA 2013, IPCC 2007

6 WHY CHINA? China is largest emitter of methane in the world. Land size and population contribute to large-scale emissions. Emissions will only increase with: Population growth; and Economic growth, as consumption per capita increases. China s Share of Global Methane Emissions in 2010 Total Global Emissions: ~7200 MtCO2e (~300 MtCH4) Rest of World 50% Nigeria 2% China 13% Mexico 2% India 9% United States 9% Russia 7% Brazil Indonesia 5% 3% Conversion of MtCH4 to MtCO2e: MtCO2e = GWP CH4 * MtCH4 GWP CH4 = 25 Source: USEPA 2011

7 Organic Waste SECTORS ANALYZED Municipal Solid Waste Agriculture Wastewater Fossil Fuels - Oil and Gas

8 WHY THESE SECTORS? EPA/GMI interest New and innovative sectors for control (esp. wastewater) Not necessarily due to size of emissions share Natural Gas & Oil Production 1% Stationary & Mobile Combustion 4% Manure Management 2% China's Methane Emissions in 2010 Total Emissions = MtCO2e Biomass Combustion 5% Coal 32% Enteric Fermentation 23% Rice 14% Wastewater Treatment 14% Landfills 5% Source: USEPA 2011

9 ORGANIC WASTE SECTORS Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Agriculture Wastewater

10 MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE (MSW)

11 MSW & CH 4 IN CHINA Pop & MSW Trajectories: Chinese pop (2010): 1.34 billon Peaks in 1.4 billion Annual Urban growth: 1.3% Annual Growth rate MSW: 3.69% 2010 Statistics Urban Rural Pop Share 49% 51% MSW Per Capita 517 kg 390 kg Total MSW Prod. 326 Mt 277 Mt Methane Emissions / Year (bcm) Projected CH 4 Emissions ( ) Three Possible MSW Pathways: Open Dumps Composting, Recycling, Incineration Landfills Total Projected CH 4 Emissions

12 AGRICULTURE: MANURE MANAGEMENT

13 CH 4 EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK MANURE AND HOUSEHOLD BIOGAS DEVELOPMENT Methane Emissions (MT CO2e) Projected Increases in CH 4 from Livestock Manure Management Year Total Swine The government has invested heavily in household biogas digester installation to promote rural energy security. Poor maintenance has diminished biodigester functionality, leading to CH 4 leakage. New policies have tried to address maintenance failures, but capacity is limited. Current technology doesn t adequately address future trends in CH 4 emissions from agriculture. Shift in CH 4 emissions from agriculture from southern to northern provinces Increasing number of large and medium scale livestock facilities

14 PROJECTED UNCAPTURED CH 4 EMISSIONS FROM BIODIGESTER MANAGEMENT OF LIVESTOCK MANURE Scenarios (constant ) Scenario 1: 2010 number of biodigesters (38 million) Scenario 2: 75% of the 2020 gov t target (60 million) Scenario 3: 2020 gov t target (80 million) Functionality Status Quo: 40% Biodigesters function Optimal Functionality: 100% function Methane Emissions (MT CO2e) 100 Fully Functioning 40 Million Million Million 60 % Functioning Million Million Million Year

15 WASTEWATER TREATMENT

16 WASTEWATER TREATMENT IN CHINA Domestic Wastewater Collected Uncollected Untreated Treated Pit latrines Ø China is the largest source of CH 4 emissions from wastewater treatment, producing 29% of global wastewaterrelated emissions Stagnant sewer Wastewater Treatment Plants Released to water bodies Yellow = Major Methane Sources Sources: He 2007, USEPA 2010

17 FUTURE EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS Existing Technology Moderate Technology Expansion Maximum Feasible Technology CH 4 Emissions (2030) 87 MtCO 2 e 7% increase from MtCO 2 e ~25% decrease 26 MtCO 2 e ~65% decrease Outlooks Household biogas digesters reduce CH 4 emissions by 9 Mt CO 2 e (~10% total domestic wastewater CH 4 emissions) Urbanization curbs even greater emissions increases Tradeoff between improved wastewater treatment and methane emissions in rural areas (pit latrines instead of open discharge) More reductions possible with low methane sludge management Negligible emissions resulting from near universal urban WWTP coverage, but higher energy requirements Widespread adoption of biogas digesters to limit emissions from rural areas Need for better data on wastewater technology use and China emissions factors Sludge management and biogas recovery from large-scale anaerobic digestion Biogas capture and utilization from latrines Methane Emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Without Biogas Digesters With Biogas Digesters Year

18 METHANE EMISSIONS REDUCTION OPPORTUNITIES FROM THE FOSSIL FUEL SECTOR

19 CHINA S OIL & GAS SECTOR

20 OUTLINE - OIL & GAS SECTOR Overview Market Activity Emissions and Projections Mitigation Technologies Recommendations

21 OIL & GAS SECTOR: INTRODUCTION Three of the eight low cost mitigation measures identified by UNEP are in the oil and gas sector. According to the U.S. GHG Inventory for 2006: 91% of GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector are associated with the natural gas industry: and 90% of the GHG emissions from the natural gas industry is methane. Focus on natural gas industry assuming these trends are applicable to China. Sources: UNEP 2011, EPA 2006

22 GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID Source: MIT 2011

23 MARKET ACTIVITY

24 Consumption: 130bcm 4% of total energy consumption CHINA S NATURAL GAS MARKET Current: Small but Growing Structure: Oligopolistic, dominated by three vertically-integrated stateowned enterprises ( Big-Three ) Pricing: Regulated, higher than US price. Fig. Shale gas exploration activities (Publicly auctioned Future: Shale gas boom? World largest potential: 36tcm Ambitious official goal: 6.5bcm in 2015, bcm in 2020 Source: EIA 2011, IEA 2012 Early stage of assessment, no commercial production Why Shale gas is different: Pricing -Market-based Players -Domestic: Non-Big-Three -Foreign: Company-Joint ventures: Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips Public sector: US-China Shale Gas Resources Initiative

25 EMISSIONS FROM NATURAL GAS: PROJECTIONS

26 CHINA S METHANE EMISSIONS FROM NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY Calculate emissions, E = A x EF x (1-ER) Low 39 Low Unconventional Production Conventional Production Imports Note that the same emission factor is applied to conventional / unconventional production and imports (i.e. consumption) since emission factors are highly uncertain Moderate IEA s Golden Rules Case Moderate IEA s Golden Rules Case Data from 1996 IPCC GHG Inventory Data and the International Energy Agency (IEA) Units are in Mt CO 2 e

27 MITIGATION STRATEGIES

28 METHANE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS VS. RETURN ON INVESTMENT Reduced Emissions Completions Plunger Lift Systems No-Bleed Pneumatic Controllers Payback period in China is much shorter than in the U.S., given Chinese market prices. Cost-effective technologies can generate up to 90% emissions reductions. Source: U.S. EPA Website 2012 Leaking Profits, NRDC 2012

29 RECOMMENDATION SUMMARY

30 POTENTIAL EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Sector Emission Reductions Range for 2030 (% of Total Sector Emissions) Co-Benefits Challenges Municipal Solid Waste MtCO 2 e (24-45%) Public health and sanitation Improve recycling and composting Alternative fuel source Aesthetic value Capital costs Labor requirements Dispersed rural population Urban land-use Agriculture: Manure Management MtCO 2 e (17-36%) Rural energy security Air quality and respiratory health Water quality Cold-weather technology development Dispersed population Human capital constraints to maintenance Wastewater MtCO 2 e (23-66%) Public health and sanitation Water quality and scarcity Nitrous oxide mitigation Rural energy security Capital costs Rapid urbanization limits city planning Dispersed rural populations Natural Gas MtCO 2 e (<90%) Energy security Economic growth Technology transfer Technology advancement

31 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS Organic Waste Improve quality and detail of available data about treatment processes in all waste sectors. Explore options for effectively capturing and utilizing biogas from waste treatment processes. Urbanization presents an opportunity for smart urban planning that integrates emissions considerations into waste treatment and disposal. Fossil Fuels Implement policies that encourage the use of cost-effective methane leak management technologies. Work with institutions at all levels in the gas industry: the Big Three Chinese energy companies, other companies exploring shale gas in China, and international institutions. Promote the adoption of the Golden Rules for Natural Gas.

32 THANK YOU QUESTIONS? Presenters: Shannon Brink, Harrison Godfrey, Mary Kang, Shelly Lyser, Joseph Majkut, Samantha Mignotte, Wei Peng, Matt Reid, Madhurita Sengupta, Laura Singer Faculty Advisor: Professor Denise Mauzerall

33 MOTIVATING FACTORS Co-benefits offer positive societal impact Profitable opportunities for emissions reduction Improved air quality Improved sanitation and health Increased access to energy in rural areas Energy security China has an opportunity to demonstrate leadership in climate change policy Methane mitigation policies offer a means Model successful capture and utilization technologies to other developing countries Foster and strengthen international collaboration through increased partnerships with organizations like GMI, U.S.-China Shale Gas Initiative, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, etc.

34 DEFINITIONS AND METHODOLOGY Emissions can be approximated by (EPA, 2012): E = A x EF x (1-ER) E = total emissions A = activity rate EF = emission factor ER = emission reduction factor