inemi ALTERNATIVE ENERGY WORKSHOP October 21, 2010 OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE PHOTOVOLTAICS VALUE CHAIN

Transcription

1 inemi ALTERNATIVE ENERGY WORKSHOP October 21, 2010 OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE PHOTOVOLTAICS VALUE CHAIN Prepared By: PRISMARK PARTNERS LLC 130 Main Street, Cold Spring Harbor NY USA Tel: Fax:

2 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN Photovoltaics is an historic opportunity for growth and profit A rare event on the order of the LCD or mobile phone boom At every level of the electronics supply chain PV growth leads PV Cells will be one of largest components markets by 2019 PV Materials will be largest materials market by 2014 Opportunities spread throughout the value chain By any measure PV is hard to ignore Despite the Great Recession of 2009, PV prevailed Production increased by only 52% to 10.4 GWp Module prices fell by 40% Module revenues fell by 8% to $24Bn Pricing correction returned PV to its long-term experience line Shifted market from capacity-focused to differentiation-focused Boosted Chinese and thin film producers (First Solar) 2

3 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN 2010 will be another blowout Production will increase by more than 90% to 20 GWp Module prices continue to fall (approximately 19%) Module revenues will grow by 54% to $37Bn A star within a recovering electronics market Longer-term growth will be phased Near-term (to 2012) Subsidies drive fast growth Scale back of subsidies distorts demand (Spain in 2008) Mid-term ( ) Too big for subsidies, grid parity not yet universal Slowing growth (but still fast by electronics industry standards) Longer-term (beyond 2020) Widespread production grid parity Resumption of rapid growth 3

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13 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN Photovoltaics is a simple business Reduction in output cost ($/Wp) drives most decisions Few distinct segments defined by technology or aesthetics Two potential strategies for growth Reduce total system costs Thin film Reduced cell thickness Low cost materials Expand manufacturing scale Reduced cycle time Automation Low cost region of manufacture Vertical integration Novel module structures Building integrated PV Integrated inverters Margin compression 14

14 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN Two potential strategies for growth Increase total system efficiency Selective emitter cells Back contact cells Micro inverters Module level ARC Self cleaning module coatings Concentration Multijunction cells Tracking Optimizers As long as minimum standards for efficiency, lifetime and scale can be met the cost effective solution wins The recent market correction has made the PV market more open to differentiating technologies that drive either cost or efficiency 15

15 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN Opportunities for growth can be found throughout the PV supply chain Fabrication Equipment Opportunity Approximately 90GWp of new capacity required by 2019 Includes: furnaces, wet chemical, screen printers, test, ARC deposition, sputtering, laser scribing, handling, glass washing, tabbing/stringing, lamination, test, framing Ten year equipment opportunity of $70Bn through 2019 Perspective LCD Equipment 10 year average - $9Bn Electronic Materials Opportunity Total materials BOM currently ~$1.15/Wp Includes substrates, contact pastes, sputtering targets, ARC, glass, encapsulant, backsheets, frames, copper ribbon, junction box, etc. Opportunity $23Bn in 2010 will grow to $50Bn by 2019 Perspective semiconductor materials $32Bn 16

16 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN Opportunities for growth can be found throughout the PV supply chain Balance-of-System Opportunity $7Bn in 2010, growing to $18Bn by 2019 Inverters require conventional PCBs, components, assembly, etc. Assembly Services Currently small outside of the inverter arena Potential within the module area similarities to PCB assembly Opportunity (excl materials) ~$3Bn in 2010, ~$5Bn by 2019 Installation and Support Currently fragmented local market Many module makers forward integrating into design and installations market Own the demand Enable further cost reductions A large part of total installed cost opportunity for efficiency 17

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18 PHOTOVOLTAICS OPPORTUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN Summary and Conclusions Photovoltaics presents an historic opportunity for growth and profit Photovoltaics will help drive the electronics industry over the next ten-plus years One of only a handful of such opportunities present themselves during a working lifetime Photovoltaics will spawn historic opportunities at the materials, fabrication equipment, component, assembly services and systems segments Focus can be on either cost reduction or cost effective efficiency improvement The enviable positions of 2019 are being built today Every company should exhaustively search for means to exploit the opportunities presented by photovoltaics 19

19 Thank You! 20