The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 Emissions. International Workshop on Energy Statistics. Karen Tréanton. International Energy Agency

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1 International Energy Agency Karen Tréanton IEA Energy Statistics Division Head of Energy Balances, Prices and Emissions Section The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 Emissions International Workshop on Energy Statistics Mexico, 2-5 December 2008 OECD/IEA, 2008

2 Outline > International context > About CO 2 emissions > Estimation of CO 2 emissions i > Data quality > Estimates for Mexico > National policy options and the importance of energy statistics

3 International Context Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. > 1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Rio de Janeiro conference > 1995 (1996): IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Development of methodologies for gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. > 1997: Kyoto Protocol (entry into force 2005) Reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the period of about 5% compared to > 2000: Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories > 2006: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

4 Share of energy in GHG emissions Waste 3% Agriculture 8% Energy 82% CO 2 94% Industrial processes 7% CH 4 5% N 2 O 1% Key point: Accounting for the largest share of global GHG emissions, energy emissions are predominantly CO 2.

5 World primary energy supply Gtoe % % % 81% Fossil Non fossil Key point: Fossil fuels still satisfy most of the world energy supply.

6 World Electricity Generation by Fuel TWh } } Non emitting Gas Coal/peat Oil Gas Nuclear Hd Hydro Other**** Key point: Although non- and low-emitting sources are growing, electricity generation is becoming more CO 2 -intensive as a result of coal use.

7 Trend in CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion Gtoe of CO Key point: Since 1870, CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially.

8 World CO 2 emissions by sector in 2006 Total emissions: 28.0 Gt CO 2 Residential 7% (11%) Other 10% (16%) Electricity and Heat 41% (27%) Industry 19% (27%) Transport 23% (20%) Key point: Between 1971 and 2006, the combined share of electricity and heat generation and transport shifted from 1/2 to 2/3 of global emissions.

9 How IEA estimates CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion Energy Statistics Energy Balances IPCC Methodologies CO 2 Emissions

10 IPCC Methodologies Basic computation for CO 2 emissions: > CO 2 emissions by product: Fuel Quantity x Emission Factor (with corrections for stored and unoxidised carbon) > Sum over all different products Can be done from two independent sets of data: Supply of fuels to the country Reference Approach Consumption by end-use sectors Sectoral Approach

11 Note on International Bunkers IPCC Guidelines: International aviation and international marine bunkers are not included in national totals. Gigatonnes CO International Bunkers Non-Annex I Parties Non-Participating Annex I Parties Kyoto target 5 Kyoto Parties Key point: The Kyoto Protocol is limited in its potential to reduce emissions as not all major emitters are included.

12 Note on Biomass IPCC Guidelines: Biomass is not included in national totals for CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion. Biomass contains carbon, absorbed by plants through photosynthesis. However, if biomass is sustainably grown, no additional CO 2 is considered as emitted into the atmosphere. If there is a change in the biomass stocks, then the CO 2 is accounted for in LULUCF.

13 Using the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach Step 1: Step 2: Step 3: Step 4: Step 5: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Converting to a common energy unit (common energy unit: TJ) Multiplying by carbon emission factors Calculating carbon stored Correcting for carbon unoxidised Step 6: p Converting to CO 2 Emissions (tonnes of CO 2 )

14 Step 1: Estimating Sectoral Fuel Consumption MODULE SUBMODULE WORKSHEET ENERGY CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER ISECTORALAPPROACH) STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 Separate sheet filled out for each sector: A B C D Main activity E producer F Manufacturing Industries Consumption Conversion Consumption Carbon electricity Carbon and heat Carbon and Construction Factor (TJ) Emission Unallocated Content autoproducers Content (TJ/unit) Factor Other (tenergy C) industries (Gg C) (t C/TJ) Manufacturing industries and C=(AxB) construction E=(CxD) F=(E x 10-3) Transport Crude Oil of which: h road Natural Gas Liquids Other sectors of which: residential Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG Units: Could be in natural units (e.g tonnes) or in energy units (e.g. TJ)

15 Step 2: Converting to a Common Energy Unit Gasoline Jet Kerosene MODULE SUBMODULE WORKSHEET ENERGY SELECTED NET CALORIFIC VALUES CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER ISECTORALAPPROACH) STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS Factors (TJ/10 3 tonnes) Refined petroleum products SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION Gasoline STEP 1 STEP 2 Jet kerosene STEP A B C Other kerosene D E F Shale oil Manufacturing Industries Consumption Conversion Consumption Gas/diesel Carbon oil Carbon Carbon 33 and Construction Factor (TJ) Residual Emission fuel oil Content Content (TJ/unit) Factor (t C) (Gg C) LPG (t C/TJ) Ethane C=(AxB) E=(CxD) F=(E x 10-3) Naphtha Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Bitumen Lubricants Country-specific NCVs for natural Petroleum coke Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG gas and coal are given explicitly in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines Refinery feedstocks Refinery gas Other oil products Other products Coal oils and tars derived from coking coals Oil shale hl Orimulsion 27.50

16 Step 3: Multiplying by Carbon Emission Factors MODULE SUBMODULE ENERGY CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER ISECTORALAPPROACH) WORKSHEET STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS CARBON EMISSION FACTORS (CEF) CARBON EMISSION FACTORS (CEF) SHEET MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION Fuel Carbon emission Fuel Carbon emission STEP 1 factor STEP (t C/TJ) 2 STEP 3 factor (t C/TJ) LIQUID FOSSIL SOLID FOSSIL Primary fuels A B C Primary fuels D E F Manufacturing Industries Crude oil Consumption Conversion 20.0 Consumption Anthracite Carbon Carbon 26.8 Carbon and Construction Orimulsion Factor 22.0 (TJ) Coking Emission coal Content 25.8 Content Natural gas liquids (TJ/unit) 17.2 Other bituminous Factor coal (t C) 25.8 (Gg C) Secondary fuels/products Sub-bituminous (t C/TJ) coal 26.2 Gasoline 18.9 Lignite 27.6 C=(AxB) E=(CxD) F=(E x 10-3) Jet kerosene 19.5 Oil shale 29.1 Crude Oil Other kerosene 19.6 Peat 28.9 Natural Gas Liquids Shale oil 20.0 Secondary fuels/products Gas/diesel oil 20.2 BKB & patent fuel (25.8) (a) Gasoline Residual fuel oil 21.1 Coke oven / gas coke 29.5 Jet Kerosene LPG 17.2 Coke oven gas 13.0 (b) Ethane 16.8 Blast furnace gas 66.0 (b) Other Kerosene Naphtha (20.0) (a) GASEOUS FOSSIL Gas/Diesel Oil Bitumen 22.0 Natural gas (dry) 15.3 Lubricants (20.0) (a) Residual Fuel Oil Petroleum coke 27.5 LPG Refinery feedstocks (20.0) (a) Refinery gas 18.2 (b) Other oil (20.0) (a)

17 Step 4: Calculating Carbon Stored MODULE SUBMODULE WORKSHEET SHEET ENERGY CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER ISECTORALAPPROACH) 2STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G H I J K L Manufacturing Industries Fraction of Carbon Stored Net Carbon Fraction of Actual Actual CO2 and Construction Carbon Stored (Gg C) Emissions (Gg C) Carbon Oxidised Carbon Emissions Emissions (Gg CO2) (Gg C) H=(FxG) I=(F-H) K=(IxJ) L=(K x [44/12]) Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG Default values: fraction of carbon stored Gas/Diesel Oil 0.5 LPG 0.8 Ethane 0.8 Naphtha 0.8 Natural Gas 0.33 Other Fuels?

18 Step 5: Correcting for Carbon Onoxidised MODULE SUBMODULE WORKSHEET SHEET ENERGY CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER ISECTORALAPPROACH) 2STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G H I J K L Manufacturing Industries Fraction of Carbon Stored Net Carbon Fraction of Actual Actual CO2 and Construction Carbon Stored (Gg C) Emissions (Gg C) Carbon Oxidised Carbon Emissions Emissions (Gg CO2) (Gg C) H=(FxG) I=(F-H) K=(IxJ) L=(K x [44/12]) Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG Default values: fraction of carbon oxidised Coal Oil and oil products 0.99 Gas Peat for elec. generation 0.99

19 Step 6: Converting to CO 2 Emissions MODULE SUBMODULE WORKSHEET SHEET ENERGY CO 2 FROM FUEL COMBUSTION (TIER ISECTORALAPPROACH) 2STEP BY STEP CALCULATIONS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND CONSTRUCTION STEP 4 STEP 5 STEP 6 G H I J K L Manufacturing Industries Fraction of Carbon Stored Net Carbon Fraction of Actual Actual CO2 and Construction Carbon Stored (Gg C) Emissions (Gg C) Carbon Oxidised Carbon Emissions Emissions (Gg CO2) (Gg C) H=(FxG) I=(F-H) K=(IxJ) L=(K x [44/12]) Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquids Gasoline Jet Kerosene Multiply by 44/12 (the molecular weight ratio of CO 2 to C) Other Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Residual Fuel Oil LPG

20 2006 World CO 2 Emissions million tonnes of CO2 % change Coal/peat Oil Gas Other * Total Sectoral Approach % Main activity producer elec. and heat % Unallocated autoproducers % Other energy industries % Manufacturing industries and construction % Transport % of which: road % Other sectors % of which: residential % Reference Approach % Diff. due to losses and/or transformation Statistical differences * Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste.

21 Data Quality: Reference vs. Sectoral Approach Reference Approach is generally an upper limit for Sectoral Approach Part of Fugitive Emissions e.g. natural gas leakage <5% of the from pipelines, emissions reference from energy transformation, etc. approach Reference Approach Sectoral Approach Stock changes at final consumers, etc. Key point: Comparing the Reference Approach and the Sectoral Approach is one way to control data quality.

22 Reference vs. Sectoral Approach: Mexico Mt of CO Total CO2 emissions - Sectoral Approach Total CO2 emissions - Reference Approach UNFCCC database Key point: The IEA estimates of CO 2 from fuel combustion are very similar to the Mexican submission to the UNFCCC.

23 Key Sources for CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion: Mexico Level Assessment (%) Excludes CO 2 emissions/removals from LULUCF Key ypoint: Key source analysis can help identify which sectors would benefit from better quality data, NCVs and emission factors.

CO 2 Emissions by Fuel: Mexico Mt of CO 2 > Between

24 CO 2 Emissions by Fuel: Mexico Mt of CO 2 > Between 1990 and 2006, CO 2 emissions increased by 42%. IEA estimates > In 2006, oil contributed 62%, gas contributed 29% and coal only 9% of CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion. > Road represented 28% and main activity producer electricity and heat represented 18% of total CO 2 emissions.

25 Dealing with Climate Change: National Policy Options > Emit less (be more efficient) > Emit differently (switch fuels or processes to deliver same outcome) > CO 2 capture and storage > Do without (change behaviour) > Adapt (learn to live with it) A need for energy statistics to be able to monitor progress of the various policies

26 Importance of energy statistics for estimating GHG emissions i > Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate. > Two sectors, both growing rapidly, represent the bulk of CO 2 emissions from fuel: electricity and heat generation transport > Effective emissions mitigation will require all countries, regardless of energy demand and infrastructure, to use energy in a sustainable manner. > Up-to-date and accurate information on energy use and GHG emissions is essential for countries to monitor their progress in reducing GHG emissions as well as to verify and validate the Kyoto targets.

The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 Emissions

The Use of Energy Statistics to Estimate CO 2 Emissions Joint IEA, ESCWA and RCREEE National Workshop on Energy Statistics Cairo, Egypt 27 April 01 May 2014 Outline International context Trends in emissions